Erie County/Upstate New York Covid-19 Response (was: Erie Co Declares State of Emergency

[Billsatlastin2018]

Waaaaaay behind the curve!

 

Virtually, EVERYTHING is shut down where I live, except food stores & pharmacies.. Schools for 3 weeks. Street traffic at a minimum and bars/ restaurants are empty.

 

if you don’t do this for 3-4 weeks, your entire country will be under a health care siege! There are simply not enough beds, let alone respirators and medical staff to care for all.

 

Mingling with people- ANYWHERE is idiotic! 

[zow2]

Not sure what’s going on in WNY compared to where I live in Maryland. I have 3 kids in the house and we aren’t Allowing them to hang out in friends houses or have friends here.  They are very bored already.  
 

here’s a news flash.  It’s inevitable that schools will be closed for the remainder of the year, everywhere.   Work from home will be indefinite for those that can.  NBA season will be cancelled.  NHL cancelled, MLB cancelled. We will be lucky if the NFL *only* has a delayed start, and a shortened season.  Does anyone really think we are going from complete lockdown to allowing 60,000 fans to be shoulder to shoulder?  I don’t think the NFL will play with no fans. 

[K-9]

2 hours ago, zow2 said:

Not sure what’s going on in WNY compared to where I live in Maryland. I have 3 kids in the house and we aren’t Allowing them to hang out in friends houses or have friends here.  They are very bored already.  
 

here’s a news flash.  It’s inevitable that schools will be closed for the remainder of the year, everywhere.   Work from home will be indefinite for those that can.  NBA season will be cancelled.  NHL cancelled, MLB cancelled. We will be lucky if the NFL *only* has a delayed start, and a shortened season.  Does anyone really think we are going from complete lockdown to allowing 60,000 fans to be shoulder to shoulder?  I don’t think the NFL will play with no fans. 

If a delayed start to or the cancellation of the NFL season is the worst thing that happens, I’ll consider us blessed. 

[Billsatlastin2018]

The Recipe for Revival! 
 

 

[Billsatlastin2018]

3 hours ago, zow2 said:

Not sure what’s going on in WNY compared to where I live in Maryland. I have 3 kids in the house and we aren’t Allowing them to hang out in friends houses or have friends here.  They are very bored already.  
 

here’s a news flash.  It’s inevitable that schools will be closed for the remainder of the year, everywhere.   Work from home will be indefinite for those that can.  NBA season will be cancelled.  NHL cancelled, MLB cancelled. We will be lucky if the NFL *only* has a delayed start, and a shortened season.  Does anyone really think we are going from complete lockdown to allowing 60,000 fans to be shoulder to shoulder?  I don’t think the NFL will play with no fans. 

 

“The Great Depression and World War I and World War II didn't stop the Kentucky Derby, a race that has been run without interruption since it began in 1875.“ Not this year! The first Saturday in May is now September!

 

The 1/2 completed Sports- Hockey, Basketball, Soccer, etc. are done until the fall- hopefully. MLB....has a 2 week postponement announced by the Commish! ? THEY will be lucky if it starts in June, which a buddy of mine believes. I Don,’t. A sham Season can’t commence in late July.

 

IF, people start listening and self isolate for at last 3 weeks, we may, but only may, be back to Opening Day of the NFL in September.
I have a Chris Botti concert, postponed from 2 days from now, until November.

A flight visit to an elderly family member in mid April? Done. 

An annual trip to Saratoga with the boys in August? Sketchy.

Mortgage payments have been suspended for 6 months! 
The border between Canada and the U.S. is closing.

 

This is very serious biz. If people act like clowns and say:”Nobody can tell ME what to do”, the Health systems everywhere will be overwhelmed and we will stretch this out into 2021.

 

STAY HOME- except for emerg food/ drug purchases! And schedule special hours ONLY for Seniors - which is being done here.

 

See you in September.

Edited March 18, 2020 by Billsatlastin2018

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 3/16/2020 at 3:19 PM, matter2003 said:

 

They as in the Chinese government...

 

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/first-covid-19-case-can-be-traced-back-to-november-2017-in-chinas-hubei-province-report/articleshow/74608199.cms

 

I think you misinterpreted.  The link states "November 17 of last year", which is correct and coincidentally matches the prediction of genomic epidemiology (they sequence virus from many patients and calculate how long it's been circulating, based on mutation rates):

Quote: "A 55 year old from Hubei province could have been the first person to have contracted the viral infection on November 17 of last year"

 

Your OP stated "November of 2017" which is incorrect.  Easy mistake to make reading quickly, NBD, but it is how misinformation arises and propagates.

 

Thanks.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

PSA: Support your local business like restaurants and shops!!!

 

McDonalds and Dominos will survive this...but don’t forget the local folk who are struggling and face real uncertainty in this time of crisis. 
 

stay safe!

[eanyills]

13 hours ago, zow2 said:

Here’s a news flash.  It’s inevitable that schools will be closed for the remainder of the year, everywhere. 

As a school teacher, that’s starting to come more into focus as a potential reality. One shoe already dropped with one state already announcing it and another state hinting at it. In New York, we have the governor saying the outbreak peak is still 45 days away and my district is already sending us instructional updates requesting us to move to more online distance learning. To me, that suggests they’re preparing for the four weeks off to become four months off.

[Chandler#81]

Breaking news CNN, for the 1st time since the virus appeared, China reports zero new cases today. 

Im optimistic the end is in sight. 

 

“This is not the end, this is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”-Winston Churchill, following victory in North Africa

[Nervous Guy]

6 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

Breaking news CNN, for the 1st time since the virus appeared, China reports zero new cases today. 

Im optimistic the end is in sight. 

 

“This is not the end, this is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”-Winston Churchill, following victory in North Africa

If you believe Chinese propaganda....

[Chandler#81]

6 minutes ago, Nervous Guy said:

If you believe Chinese propaganda....

Well, it started there and they discovered it. To your point, I’m waiting to hear from WHO experts in Country (China) to confirm.

[Nervous Guy]

18 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think you misinterpreted.  The link states "November 17 of last year", which is correct and coincidentally matches the prediction of genomic epidemiology (they sequence virus from many patients and calculate how long it's been circulating, based on mutation rates):

Quote: "A 55 year old from Hubei province could have been the first person to have contracted the viral infection on November 17 of last year"

 

Your OP stated "November of 2017" which is incorrect.  Easy mistake to make reading quickly, NBD, but it is how misinformation arises and propagates.

 

Thanks.

I found this to be an interesting read....https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-woman-hunted-down-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/

[Sundancer]

9 minutes ago, Nervous Guy said:

If you believe Chinese propaganda....

Agreed. But other countries with aggressive testing and tracing cases are showing that works. It’s just not what the US is doing so our cases are not under control. 

[BillsFan4]

 

 

[BillsFan4]

 

[BillsFan4]

https://news.wbfo.org/post/st-joseph-hospital-being-converted-covid-19-treatment-center

St. Joseph hospital being converted to COVID-19 treatment center

 

Quote

Catholic Health will convert its St. Joseph Campus of Sisters Hospital into a facility dedicated entirely to treating the novel coronavirus. 

 

While President and CEO Mark Sullivan says his hospital system is only treating two COVID-19 patients as of Thursday, there is widespread belief the current numbers of diagnosed patients will rise significantly.

 

Wow! They will switch to only treating COVID19. Smart though.

Edited March 20, 2020 by BillsFan4

[BillsFan4]

 

 

[BillsFan4]

@Hapless Bills Fan if you think this should go in a different COVID19 thread, feel free to move it:

 

 

Tax filing deadline moved to July 15th.

Edited March 20, 2020 by BillsFan4

[BillsFan4]

 

 

 

[BillsFan4]

Some good updates for NY and NYC:

 

- NY is now doing more tests per capita than anywhere else in the country (and reportedly more per capita than China and even S. Korea).

 

They processed 10,000+ new tests just in the last 24 hours and are up to almost 33,000 tests done. 

https://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-state-coronavirus-testing-compared-to-other-countries-2020-3

 

- 1 million new N95 masks are being sent to NYC (I have family in healthcare, they are DESPERATELY needed). 500k to Long Island. 

 

- 6000 additional ventilators were purchased and supplies are being gathered from anywhere they can get them.

 

- at least 4 sites are going to be retrofitted to handle covid19 cases + medical tents are also being put up. This will create 1000’s of new beds for patients. 

 

This is all desperately needed. NYC is getting hit hard. We are already up over 7100 cases in NY in just a matter of days. 

 

 

 

 

 

BTW: so far, 55% of COVID19 cases in NY are people ages 18-49.

Roughly 40% of those cases have required hospitalization.

 

Edited March 21, 2020 by BillsFan4

[BillsFan4]

 

 

There were 7100 cases yesterday. What was it, just a week ago that we were in the 100’s? 

[K-9]

8 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

 

 

There were 7100 cases yesterday. What was it, just a week ago that we were in the 100’s? 

I automatically multiply by 10. The sole reason these numbers aren’t higher is the lack of testing available.

[Sundancer]

NYC stopping testing outpatients today. More or less admitting that they are overrun with cases now and bringing people together to be tested probably will do more harm than the good it could have 2 weeks ago. 
 

Gut wrenching development and I hope other cities don’t have to concede this too. 

Edited March 21, 2020 by Sundancer

[Phil The Thrill]

On 3/15/2020 at 12:20 PM, matter2003 said:

After 3 confirmed cases of COVID-19 Erie County held a press conference at 11AM announcing they shut down all schools tomorrow and declared a state of emergency...

 

Conference call tomorrow to discuss next steps and decisions on school moving forward...

it’s going to be a LOT longer than Monday.  Schools in NY will likely be closed for the rest of the year.  I’d guess that most businesses will be able to resume business toward the start of August.  That would mean schools could begin in September.  
 

Yes - they completely sucks. Politics and everything aside - this virus is no joke and we need to take every precaution to move past this.

2 hours ago, BillsFan4 said:

 

 

There were 7100 cases yesterday. What was it, just a week ago that we were in the 100’s? 

It’s because way more people are being tested.  Basically the virus was alive and well weeks before the first case was identified 

[BillsFan4]

2 hours ago, Sundancer said:

NYC stopping testing outpatients today. More or less admitting that they are overrun with cases now and bringing people together to be tested probably will do more harm than the good it could have 2 weeks ago. 
 

Gut wrenching development and I hope other cities don’t have to concede this too. 

Definitely gut wrenching. And just when I felt like NY was making some real progress in their testing (NY tested at the highest rate per capita in the world over the last 24 hours. That’s what needs to be done IMO)

 

https://abc7ny.com/health/nyc-health-officials-provide-limits-on-testing-patients-for-covid-19/6033992/

 

Quote

New York City health officials have directed medical providers to stop testing patients for the coronavirus, except for those sick enough to require hospitalization, saying wider testing is exhausting supplies of protective equipment.

In an advisory issued Friday, the health department said outpatient testing should stop unless results would impact a patient's treatment.

 

Quote

It said demand for unnecessary testing is contributing to a national shortage of masks, gowns, collection swabs and other supplies, all of which need to be discarded by health care workers after each test.

"We have been clear that testing is best indicated for people who are symptomatic, have chronic underlying illnesses, and are not getting better," said New York City's health commissioner, Dr. Oxiris Barbot.

She also urged the public not to seek treatment just because they are sick, noting that the disease is mild for most and resolves within a few weeks.

"Only go to the doctor if you are getting worse," she said, noting that every trip to a medical clinic by a sick person potentially exposes others to the disease.

The order came amid a huge surge in testing in New York. After a slow start, testing sites have proliferated, and many officials have said that widespread testing is a key to fighting the spread of the disease.

As of Friday morning, more than 32,000 people had been tested in the state, almost a third of them in the last day, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said.

 

More than 7,000 New Yorkers have tested positive. More than 1,200 have been hospitalized.

Similar restrictions on testing have been implemented in other parts of the state.

 

Albany Medical Center and St. Peter's Health Partners said they were also suspending community testing to conserve resources.

"The difficult decision was made in order to conserve testing resources for those at highest risk, including inpatients, symptomatic direct care workers and those with high-risk exposure to the virus," according to a release.

 

 running out of protective equipment and oral swabs. Ugh. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 3/19/2020 at 5:44 AM, Nervous Guy said:

I found this to be an interesting read....https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-woman-hunted-down-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/

 

It IS a good read.

It's been linked in a couple of the covid-19 threads.

You may also find this article of interest:
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/2/12/21133560/coronavirus-china-bats-pangolin-zoonotic-disease

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Sundancer said:

NYC stopping testing outpatients today. More or less admitting that they are overrun with cases now and bringing people together to be tested probably will do more harm than the good it could have 2 weeks ago. 
 

Gut wrenching development and I hope other cities don’t have to concede this too. 

 

This is awful - heartbreaking setback.

I understand why they're making the decision if they're running short of protective equipment, but  "You can not fight what you can not see".  We MUST test and identify asymptomatic and presymptomatic people and identify them to contain the disease.

 

Ugh ugh ugh

 

I also question a testing protocol that calls for the gown, mask, gloves etc to be discarded after EVERY test.  There ought to be a way around this.

[BillsFan4]

7 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This is awful - heartbreaking setback.

I understand why they're making the decision if they're running short of protective equipment, but  "You can not fight what you can not see".  We MUST test and identify asymptomatic and presymptomatic people and identify them to contain the disease.

 

Ugh ugh ugh

 

I also question a testing protocol that calls for the gown, mask, gloves etc to be discarded after EVERY test.  There ought to be a way around this.

 

[BillsFan4]

To add to the above story:

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/21/coronavirus-testing-strategyshift/

 

Quote

Health officials in New York, California and other hard-hit parts of the country are restricting coronavirus testing to health care workers and the severely ill, saying the battle to contain the virus is lost and the country is moving into a new phase of the pandemic response.

 

As cases spike sharply in those places, they are bracing for an onslaught and directing scarce resources where they are needed most to save people’s lives. Instead of encouraging broad testing of the public, they’re focused on conserving masks, ventilators and intensive care beds — and on getting still-limited tests to health-care workers and the most vulnerable. The shift is further evidence that rising levels of infection and illness have begun to overwhelm the health care system.

 

A similar message was hammered Saturday by members of the White House coronavirus task force, who said it was urgent to conserve scarce supplies and offered guidelines about who should get tested. Top priority, they said, should go to those who are hospitalized, along with health-care workers, symptomatic residents of long-term care facilities and people over 65 — especially those with heart and lung disease, which place them at higher risk.

 

Quote

Health officials are now struggling with a complicated and shifting message. More people can get tested as drive-through sites open and more tests are finally available. Nevertheless, those with mild symptoms should stay home and isolate. And everyone should practice social distancing to preserve the health care system’s finite resources.

 

To convey those points clearly, many officials are speaking in increasingly blunt terms, saying that wide testing could jeopardize the lives of health care workers and the U.S. response by burning through precious supplies as a tidal wave of sick people descend on the system.

 

Quote

I’m just scared there’s going to be mass confusion when people find out there is a testing site, are worried about their covid status, and they’re going to mob the testing site,” said Michael Fraser, executive director of the association that represents state health directors. “It’s confusing to people to hear that testing is being made available in a much more convenient way, and they think, ‘Hey, this is great, let’s get tested.’ ”

 

 

 

If you are in NY:

 

Quote

New York City’s Daskalakis said people with a manageable fever and cough who aren’t at high risk for severe illness should assume they have covid-19. Seeking a test exposes health care workers administering them and wastes resources, since nothing would change for those individuals based on their results, he said. There is no approved treatment for the disease.

 

The default assumption is yes — anyone who comes in with any kind of fever, cough, respiratory symptom, flu-like illness, we’re making the assumption that they have this,” he said, based on the prevalence of community transmission in New York. “It’s very likely you have it. There’s no benefit for you to test.”

 

 

And then there’s this from LA:

 

Quote

Los Angeles County health officials advised doctors in a letter Thursday to give up on testing patients as a strategy to contain the outbreak, instructing them to test patients only if a positive result could change how they would be treated, the Los Angeles Times reported. The department “is shifting from a strategy of case containment to slowing disease transmission and averting excess morbidity and mortality,” according to the letter.

 

And washington St:

 

Quote

In Washington state, where hospital workers have been fashioning makeshift protective medical gear using parts purchased from Home Depot and craft stores,officials are restricting testing to high-risk populations, including health care workers and people with more severe symptoms.

 

“We’ve asked the public to understand we can’t test everyone, especially if they have mild symptoms or are asymptomatic,” said Jeff Duchin, health officer for Seattle and King County, a hard-hit part of the country.

 

 

More info in the article. I couldn’t copy/paste everything, but I tried to get the main parts. 

 

Edited March 22, 2020 by BillsFan4

[Sundancer]

4 hours ago, BillsFan4 said:

To add to the above story:

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/21/coronavirus-testing-strategyshift/

 

 

 

 

 

 

If you are in NY:

 

 

 

And then there’s this from LA:

 

 

And washington St:

 

 

 

More info in the article. I couldn’t copy/paste everything, but I tried to get the main parts. 

 

I hope we reverse this trend as more supplies of gowns and tests become available. We cannot afford to take a no test and no track path. 

[BillsFan4]

New updates for Erie County: (Sunday, March 22nd)

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Punching Bag]

Quote on symptoms are not exactly right.   It is high fever and not every one has a "normal" body temperature of 98.6.  I have been baselined by doctors to have normal temperature 96.8 (yeah I am cold blooded).  You can see how some when see it written on chart as minor dyslexia. 

 

https://medlineplus.gov/ency/article/001982.htm

Quote

Normal body temperature varies by person, age, activity, and time of day. The average normal body temperature is generally accepted as 98.6°F (37°C). Some studies have shown that the "normal" body temperature can have a wide range, from 97°F (36.1°C) to 99°F (37.2°C).

 

[BillsFan4]

3 hours ago, Limeaid said:

Quote on symptoms are not exactly right.   It is high fever and not every one has a "normal" body temperature of 98.6.  I have been baselined by doctors to have normal temperature 96.8 (yeah I am cold blooded).  You can see how some when see it written on chart as minor dyslexia. 

 

https://medlineplus.gov/ency/article/001982.htm

 

Same here. My normal temp is right around 97 - 97.5. 

 

So I guess for us it would be a bit lower. IMO if you have any fever at all right now you should be isolating.

[BillsFan4]

 

Condolences to the families.

[BillsFan4]

 

[Ned Flanders]

Virginia just a couple of hours ago closed schools through the end of the year 

[Sundancer]

45 minutes ago, Ned Flanders said:

Virginia just a couple of hours ago closed schools through the end of the year 

 

No one is going back to school this year, and maybe not this calendar year unless summer burns this off and we can get our treatment, testing, and tracking together by a possible fall resurgence. 

Edited March 23, 2020 by Sundancer

[K-9]

21 minutes ago, Sundancer said:

 

No one is going back to school this year, and maybe not this calendar year unless summer burns this off and we can get our treatment, testing, and tracking together by a possible fall resurgence. 

Seeing as how this virus seems to be proliferating in hot and humid climbs as well as cooler locations, I’m not full of hope that it will give us a seasonal break.

[Punching Bag]

2 hours ago, Ned Flanders said:

Virginia just a couple of hours ago closed schools through the end of the year 

 

My wife is a manager in one of school kitchens.  Not entirely sure how they are going to do that since they did not give staff enough time to organize cleanup of kitchen and taking care of expired items. 

 

She was called in briefly on last Monday to do inventory and help transfer items used by free breakfast and lunch services.  How do they serve breakfasts and lunches if they are closed you are wondering? They do it by having staff outside of school in tent for parents to drive to school and pick up meals if they are on free and reduced lunch list.  Other kids are being fed by school buses being driven to spots kids used to be picked up from and handing out bagged food.

 

They discovered now they have sent all staff home they do not have enough remaining to prepare everything they need to and appealed to my wife to ask her staff to go in to central kitchen and prepare (package)  meals.  They were offering time and a half which sounds like a good deal except they would be paid instead of the money they would be getting anyways not working.  In addition these are not full time pay but 3-4 hours work a day meaning you are driving usually 15-20 minutes each way and getting paid extra (4*$15*0.5) $30.  It is no wonder they are having trouble found workers.

1 hour ago, K-9 said:

Seeing as how this virus seems to be proliferating in hot and humid climbs as well as cooler locations, I’m not full of hope that it will give us a seasonal break.

 

Hot and humid is different than hot and dry.  Viruses tend to last shorter on surfaces when weather is hot and dry.  Considering communities do not seem to be developing (or virus is mutating so fast people are being re-infected with another strain) I do not see this quickly winding down.

[Johnny Hammersticks]

21 hours ago, Sundancer said:

 

No one is going back to school this year, and maybe not this calendar year unless summer burns this off and we can get our treatment, testing, and tracking together by a possible fall resurgence. 

 

I think this is likely a good prediction.  

 

Here in Vermont we had 4 confirmed cases and 0 deaths on 3/14 when Governor Scott shut down schools until 4/6.  

 

Today (3/24) we now have 95 confirmed cases and 7 deaths.  We average between 20-25 new confirmed cases and 2-3 new deaths every 24 hours.

 

No way schools are going to open back up on 4/6, and I would be shocked if they were open by 8/26 which is the first student day of the 20-21 school year.