Buffalo Bills Fan Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 (edited) 5 minutes ago, jrober38 said: You don't seem to understand how pandemics spread. Everyone doesn't get it the same time. It spreads. Person A gives COVID-19 to 3 people (the average transmission based off data I've seen), who each give it to 3 people, who each give it to 3 people, etc. By the time it's been transmitted 10 times, 30,000 people have it. That's how this thing will spread. 45,000 people (knowingly) have it right now in the US. In a few days after each of them have given it to 3 more people, 135,000 people will have it. A few days after that 400,000 people will have it. In a month if the curve isn't flatter, millions of people might have it, and tens of thousands will be dead. Right how seeing as well. Great post. NYC getting hit the most. Just started as well. Plus we were behind other countries in cases then USA is in third now. As well are in critical condition, icu, ventilator, some people lost a lung etc. (younger people in icu among older people icu struggling) Among other health problems. All still in early process (getting started in this). Not even close to tip of iceberg yet. Edited March 24, 2020 by Buffalo Bills Fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrober38 Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 1 minute ago, SirAndrew said: You make a great point about defining “cases”, and you are 100% percent correct. If we are saying Covid 19 mortality rate is anywhere between 1-5%, it’s probably much lower in comparison to actual cases. However, if we are saying that the mortally rate for seasonal flu is 0.02%, that is probably actually lower as well. How many people with the flu aren’t defined as “cases”? The last time I had the flu I didn’t go to the doctor, so I wouldn’t be a case. Using that metric, Covid 19 is still worse than the flu. I do agree the rate of fatalities is probably much lower than what we think. It’s certainly not a death sentence. Things are a bit hysterical right now because Italy has a terrible mortality rate. Germany’s is less than 1%. THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I had the flu twice between December and January. Didn't go to the doctor either time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, jrober38 said: You don't seem to understand how pandemics spread. Everyone doesn't get it the same time. It spreads. Person A gives COVID-19 to 3 people (the average transmission based off data I've seen), who each give it to 3 people, who each give it to 3 people, etc. By the time it's been transmitted 10 times, 30,000 people have it. That's how this thing will spread. 45,000 people (knowingly) have it right now in the US. In a few days after each of them have given it to 3 more people, 135,000 people will have it. A few days after that 400,000 people will have it. In a month if the curve isn't flatter, millions of people might have it, and tens of thousands will be dead. I understand how pandemics spread. But this virus hasn't been behaving that way. Why haven't millions (or even tens of thousands) died in Iran or China where the disease has been around for four months or more? Why are there only seven deaths in the entire state of Texas two months into the "crisis"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meazza Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 Every single country that has taken this disease lightly has paid a heavy cost. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan1959 Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, jrober38 said: You don't seem to understand how pandemics spread. Everyone doesn't get it the same time. It spreads. Person A gives COVID-19 to 3 people (the average transmission based off data I've seen), who each give it to 3 people, who each give it to 3 people, etc. By the time it's been transmitted 10 times, 30,000 people have it. That's how this thing will spread. 45,000 people (knowingly) have it right now in the US. In a few days after each of them have given it to 3 more people, 135,000 people will have it. A few days after that 400,000 people will have it. In a month if the curve isn't flatter, millions of people might have it, and tens of thousands will be dead. I believe he understands how a pandemic works. His point was that, as of now, there is no actual evidence it will result in "millions and millions of deaths" as you put it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrober38 Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said: Right how seeing as well. Great post. NYC getting hit the most. Just started as well. Plus we were behind other countries in cases then USA is in third now. As well are in critical condition, icu, some people lost a lung etc. (younger people in icu among older people struggling) Among other health problems. All still in early process (getting started in this). Not even close to tip of iceberg yet. The tsunami of sick people is going to hit in late April or early May. By then there will millions, if not tens of millions of cases in the US and at that point no one will be comparing it to the flu. It will touch every part of America, and I read somewhere that like 40% of rural hospitals don't have a single ventilator, and if you make it to an ICU with this virus you can't survive without a ventilator. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warren Zevon Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 1 minute ago, mannc said: I understand how pandemics spread. But this virus hasn't been behaving that way. Why haven't millions (or even tens of thousands) died in Iran or China where the disease has been around for four months or more? Why are there only seven deaths in the entire state of Texas two months into the "crisis"? China shut down the entire country. People were not allowed outside their home. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meazza Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 Just now, Gary Busey said: China shut down the entire country. People were not allowed outside their home. That’s incorrect they shut down two provinces. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan1959 Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, jrober38 said: The tsunami of sick people is going to hit in late April or early May. By then there will millions, if not tens of millions of cases in the US and at that point no one will be comparing it to the flu. It will touch every part of America, and I read somewhere that like 40% of rural hospitals don't have a single ventilator, and if you make it to an ICU with this virus you can't survive without a ventilator. Actually, 20 - 30 million people do get the flu each year. "CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza" https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html Edited March 24, 2020 by billsfan1959 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bills Fan Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 1 minute ago, billsfan1959 said: Actually, 20 - 30 million people do get the flu each year. Ya lot's of people get the flu each other. Flu was bad this year. Feel for everyone. But i'm sick comparing it to the flu. It is it's own problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrober38 Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, mannc said: I understand how pandemics spread. But this virus hasn't been behaving that way. Why haven't millions (or even tens of thousands) died in Iran or China where the disease has been around for four months or more? Why are there only seven deaths in the entire state of Texas two months into the "crisis"? Because this virus has existed for only 3-4 months. There are way more people with it than there are confirmed cases. There aren't enough tests. Also, people walk around with this for 5-14 days before showing symptoms. The average fatality is about 17 days after contracting the disease. In 17 more days, Texas will be in a significantly worse state than it is right now relating to COVID-19. In a month there are going to be exponentially more cases across America and exponentially more deaths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, SirAndrew said: You make a great point about defining “cases”, and you are 100% percent correct. If we are saying Covid 19 mortality rate is anywhere between 1-5%, it’s probably much lower in comparison to actual cases. However, if we are saying that the mortally rate for seasonal flu is 0.02%, that is probably actually lower as well. How many people with the flu aren’t defined as “cases”? The last time I had the flu I didn’t go to the doctor, so I wouldn’t be a case. Using that metric, Covid 19 is still worse than the flu. I do agree the rate of fatalities is probably much lower than what we think. It’s certainly not a death sentence. Things are a bit hysterical right now because Italy has a terrible mortality rate. Germany’s is less than 1%. People can argue all day about what the number of "cases" is and whether we are under-counting those by not testing enough. But what really matters is how many people get really sick or die from the virus and right now, that number is not very high (relatively speaking) anywhere. Italy has a much older population than almost any other country, which is why they are particularly vulnerable to seasonal flu. I'm all in favor of social distancing and taking reasonable precautions such as restricting bar and restaurant business, but the current state of our knowledge about CV19 does not justify the economic suicide we are committing. BTW, it's incredible that mass transit is still operating in NY and other cities. That has to be the most massive vector for transmission of the virus and is probably the single reason why NYC has so many cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hardhatharry Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 Just now, Buffalo Bills Fan said: Ya lot's of people get the flu each other. Flu was bad this year. Feel for everyone. But i'm sick comparing it to the flu. It is it's own problem. Only dumb people compare it to the flu and in PPP there is no shortage of those... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SirAndrew Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, mannc said: I understand how pandemics spread. But this virus hasn't been behaving that way. Why haven't millions (or even tens of thousands) died in Iran or China where the disease has been around for four months or more? Why are there only seven deaths in the entire state of Texas two months into the "crisis"? China locked down Hubei in a way that would never work in America. They literally dragged screaming people out of their homes. Plus, do you actually trust China’s numbers? I’m not sure I believe it’s even over. Their lies started this mess. Additionally, if Texas did a good job of tracing and quarantine, that’s why only seven deaths. Pandemics work in clusters, NYC is the main cluster right now. These same clusters existed with every pandemic. We read history textbooks about things like the Spanish Flu, and think all of America was under siege. Someone in Philly had a much different experience from a farmer in Iowa, because they weren’t in the cluster. Therefore, Texas could survive an entire pandemic with less than one hundred deaths, while New York could lose hundreds of thousands. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrober38 Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 8 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said: I believe he understands how a pandemic works. His point was that, as of now, there is no actual evidence it will result in "millions and millions of deaths" as you put it. You're ignoring the fact that exponentially more people are going to have it in 4 weeks than have it now. And regarding the deaths I'm talking about the entire world. All of the experts maintain this is at least 10 times more deadly than the flu. I trust them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 6 minutes ago, meazza said: That’s incorrect they shut down two provinces. And China was criticized for not acting quickly enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 1 minute ago, jrober38 said: I trust them. And that right there is the problem. A whole lot of sheeple "trust them." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warren Zevon Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 1 minute ago, mannc said: And China was criticized for not acting quickly enough. It's a fact they didn't act quickly enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan1959 Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 Just now, Buffalo Bills Fan said: Ya lot's of people get the flu each other. Flu was bad this year. Feel for everyone. But i'm sick comparing it to the flu. It is it's own problem. I'm not comparing it to the flu. My point was to those people who act as if the flu is nothing at all. As to this virus, I have no idea how it will end and neither does anyone else. I just don't see the usefulness of people running around predicting millions and millions of deaths 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 1 minute ago, jrober38 said: You're ignoring the fact that exponentially more people are going to have it in 4 weeks than have it now. And regarding the deaths I'm talking about the entire world. All of the experts maintain this is at least 10 times more deadly than the flu. I trust them. According to the WHO, every year 500,000 to 600,000 people die worldwide of the seasonal flu. Four months into this crises, we've got about 11,000 deaths from CV19 worldwide. Something is wrong with the experts' projections. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meazza Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, mannc said: And China was criticized for not acting quickly enough. Yes. I’m not using China as a reference. Taiwan and South Korea were excellent in handling this but they have extensive experience with viruses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hardhatharry Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 Just now, mannc said: According to the WHO, every year 500,000 to 600,000 people die worldwide of the seasonal flu. Four months into this crises, we've got about 11,000 deaths from CV19 worldwide. Something is wrong with the experts' projections. Man this guy is a ***** idiot lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrober38 Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 (edited) 12 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said: Actually, 20 - 30 million people do get the flu each year. "CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza" https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html Right. The flu doesn't go away. Influenza is constantly mutating which is why it can't be eradicated. That's why you can catch it several times over the span of a few weeks. In a world with 7.5 billion people, many of them are carrying around influenza right now, spreading it to other people all over the globe. It's been around for thousands of years. COVID-19 started with one person in China, who has slowly been spreading it all over the world. It's been around for 4 months. There's an obvious difference as to why corona virus hasn't killed as many people yet. Edited March 24, 2020 by jrober38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SirAndrew Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 1 minute ago, Joe in Winslow said: And that right there is the problem. A whole lot of sheeple "trust them." I’m one of the biggest skeptics on earth, but the data shows it to be much more deadly than the flu. Argue against lock downs, quarantines, and the destruction of our economy. I’ll engage in that debate, as I believe it has some merit. To say that it’s not more deadly than the flu is absurd. 1 minute ago, mannc said: According to the WHO, every year 500,000 to 600,000 people die worldwide of the seasonal flu. Four months into this crises, we've got about 11,000 deaths from CV19 worldwide. Something is wrong with the experts' projections. We don’t quarantine and lockdown entire nations over the flu. That’s why more death from the flu. Have you not noticed the extreme measures being taken? They do have an impact. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrober38 Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said: And that right there is the problem. A whole lot of sheeple "trust them." Why would I not trust a bunch of doctors who have decades of experience? Why would you trust politicians with no medical expertise at all ahead of the actual experts? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 Just now, SirAndrew said: To say that it’s not more deadly than the flu is absurd. it may well be. But committing economic hari-kiri to POTENTIALLY stop something that MAY kill less than 1% of the population is utterly ######ed. Just now, jrober38 said: Why would I not trust a bunch of doctors who have decades of experience? Why would you trust politicians with no medical expertise at all ahead of the actual experts? I don't trust either. I don't trust anyone who comes at me with an air of authority. If there's one thing I've learned in life it's that. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bills Fan Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 Just now, billsfan1959 said: I'm not comparing it to the flu. My point was to those people who act as if the flu is nothing at all. As to this virus, I have no idea how it will end and neither does anyone else. I just don't see the usefulness of people running around predicting millions and millions of deaths Ya I know you were not. Hear that from lots of people.. A lady I helped out month ago it is just a flu. Now it is worse than the flu. Since spread outta china. She;s older understand why has to be worried. Live in a rural area never thought getting cases here where I live at in USA. All around where I live it. Looks like getting bigger and bigger. Like USA was behind lots of countries now third in most cases. (Just started). Plus it's a huge country. Not tip of ice berg just yet. Have no data cause million's of deaths. But wouldn't rule it out neither. But possibly for the world sadlyfor deaths in million. (Not saying just USA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hardhatharry Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 Just now, jrober38 said: Why would I not trust a bunch of doctors who have decades of experience? Why would you trust politicians with no medical expertise at all ahead of the actual experts? Trump just killed a couple of his supporters by giving them bad advice. So let Trump weed out these idiots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warren Zevon Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, mannc said: According to the WHO, every year 500,000 to 600,000 people die worldwide of the seasonal flu. Four months into this crises, we've got about 11,000 deaths from CV19 worldwide. Something is wrong with the experts' projections. 1 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 8 (4 factors) 1 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 128 (8 factors) Simple math but that's the difference between 4 and 8 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SirAndrew Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 1 minute ago, Joe in Winslow said: it may well be. But committing economic hari-kiri to POTENTIALLY stop something that MAY kill less than 1% of the population is utterly ######ed. Now that’s a debate which has merit. If our lockdown continues, there will be a major economic depression that takes lives. The issue is the virus kills less than 1% with proper medical care. If everyone goes out again, the system becomes over loaded, and the death rate could rise up to 10% in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrober38 Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said: it may well be. But committing economic hari-kiri to POTENTIALLY stop something that MAY kill less than 1% of the population is utterly ######ed. What if it kills 5% of the population? Or 8% like in Italy? How many lives are expendable? Edited March 24, 2020 by jrober38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 Just now, SirAndrew said: Now that’s a debate which has merit. If our lockdown continues, there will be a major economic depression that takes lives. The issue is the virus kills less than 1% with proper medical care. If everyone goes out again, the system becomes over loaded, and the death rate could rise up to 10% in a hurry. This thing isn't gonna kill 30 million people in the US. That's what I'm talking about. Even IF it was WORST CASE, we'd be looking at 3 million dead. Maybe. No one knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hardhatharry Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 Just now, jrober38 said: What if it kills 5% of the population? Or 8% like in Italy? How many lives are expendible? As long as Joe is alive I don't think he thinks past that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, SirAndrew said: I’m one of the biggest skeptics on earth, but the data shows it to be much more deadly than the flu. Argue against lock downs, quarantines, and the destruction of our economy. I’ll engage in that debate, as I believe it has some merit. To say that it’s not more deadly than the flu is absurd. We don’t quarantine and lockdown entire nations over the flu. That’s why more death from the flu. Have you not noticed the extreme measures being taken? They do have an impact. That's a great point. We don't do that because it's been around for a long time, it usually doesn't kill people who aren't already sick (although unlike CV19 flu does kill lots of children). And you can vaccinate for it. I do think we should be taking serious action to prevent the spread of CV19, but we should NOT be committing economic suicide, which is what's happening now. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 1 minute ago, jrober38 said: What if it kills 5% of the population? It's not going to kill 15 million people. And even if, by some fever-dream stretch of the imagination it did, how many MORE will be permanently impoverished to save those 15 million? I'd argue that numbers a WHOLE lot bigger. 1 minute ago, Hardhatharry said: As long as Joe is alive I don't think he thinks past that. Let's get something straight, you roach. You know *****-all about me, and I couldn't care less about you. So take a walk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warren Zevon Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 #WalkAway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hardhatharry Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 (edited) 1 minute ago, Joe in Winslow said: It's not going to kill 15 million people. And even if, by some fever-dream stretch of the imagination it did, how many MORE will be permanently impoverished to save those 15 million? I'd argue that numbers a WHOLE lot bigger. Let's get something straight, you roach. You know *****-all about me, and I couldn't care less about you. So take a walk. Lol says the clueless guy. You don't care about right information either. Edited March 24, 2020 by Hardhatharry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrober38 Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 Just now, Joe in Winslow said: It's not going to kill 15 million people. And even if, by some fever-dream stretch of the imagination it did, how many MORE will be permanently impoverished to save those 15 million? I'd argue that numbers a WHOLE lot bigger. How do you know? The mortality rate in Italy is 8%. In Spain it's 6%. This thing hasn't even hit hard yet. In two weeks when NYC hospitals are completely overwhelmed and people are dying in the hallways the death rate is going to begin to rise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fansince88 Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 (edited) 34 minutes ago, jrober38 said: You don't seem to understand how pandemics spread. Everyone doesn't get it the same time. It spreads. Person A gives COVID-19 to 3 people (the average transmission based off data I've seen), who each give it to 3 people, who each give it to 3 people, etc. By the time it's been transmitted 10 times, 30,000 people have it. That's how this thing will spread. 45,000 people (knowingly) have it right now in the US. In a few days after each of them have given it to 3 more people, 135,000 people will have it. A few days after that 400,000 people will have it. In a month if the curve isn't flatter, millions of people might have it, and tens of thousands will be dead. This is actually 59049 isnt it? 1×3×3×3×3×3×3×3×3×3×3=59049 Edited March 24, 2020 by fansince88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 Just now, Hardhatharry said: Lol says the clueless guy. Right, Harry. Anyone who isn't a gullible turd-lord must be clueless. Got some real estate in Love Canal to sell you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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