The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[Buffalo_Gal]

5 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

Definitely LOL'd @ The Peoples Democratic Republic of New Zealand

 

 

 

He was on Tucker tonight talking about this. What NZ is doing is batshit crazy.  Beautiful countryside though. 

 

[Koko78]

2 hours ago, 3rdnlng said:

The KamalaVirus sucks much more. I heard it on the radio but not sure I heard it correctly-------------------something about chrome off a trailer hitch.

 

Huh, from what I heard it could suck a golf ball through a garden hose.

[BillStime]

 

[B-Man]

 

WELL, THE PUBLIC HEALTH COMMUNITY HAS SQUANDERED ITS PUBLIC TRUST ON THIS ONE, SO THEY WON’T HAVE MUCH TO WORK WITH NEXT TIME AROUND: 

 

Why Stephen Emmott fears the next pandemic could kill a billion people. 

 

And Covid-19 is a very mild pandemic disease by comparison with others that might occur.

 

They’ve oversold it — understandable in the beginning when all we knew was that the Chinese were panicking, but not by now — and people will discount what they say next time. And yet it could be much, much worse next time.

 

Squandered trust is very destructive, yet such squandering is the hallmark of pretty much all of our institutions these days, worldwide. That says something unfortunate about the people who are running those institutions.

 

 

 

 

 

[3rdnlng]

18 minutes ago, Koko78 said:

 

Huh, from what I heard it could suck a golf ball through a garden hose.

I can see how one of those mutterings could be confused for the other.

[snafu]

12 hours ago, shoshin said:

Attempt to portray Texas" WTF? All that chart shows is what months excess deaths occurred. That's just data.

 

The graph for Texas is not really proportionately correct.  From 0 to 1.25x is one measure and then from 1.25x to 1.6x is almost twice that measure. They could have just reported the number “peak 1.6x higher”  — which they did to the left. They didn’t really need to draw a distorted graph to make their point. 

 

I’m not really bent out of shape about it, but that’s not “just data”, and I can see how some people might get a bit cheesed off. 

 

[B-Man]

 

 

WHEN YOU CAN’T TRUST THE NUMBERS: 

 

N.C. ‘Reporting Error’ Fuels 200,000 COVID Testing Overcount.

 

 

 

 

[Penfield45]

On 8/11/2020 at 8:05 PM, Big Blitz said:

 

 

The virus skipped children from February thru July.

 

The pattern of the virus appears to follow a "what needs to and will absolutely grab the public's attention at the moment" pattern.  

 

 

Truly fascinating.  

 

In late November it will move to the "Christmas shoppers at risk in congested malls" phase.

 

are you ***** stupid? like honestly. Real actual question 

 

The reason children are in the headlines  is because SCHOOL IS STARTING AGAIN. 

the school in GA that closed for 2 weeks is opening back up LOL

 

have fun with the lawsuits. that school district is going to be absolutely destroyed in court and drained from all money. 

[ziltoid]

7 minutes ago, Penfield45 said:

 

are you ***** stupid? like honestly. Real actual question 

 

The reason children are in the headlines  is because SCHOOL IS STARTING AGAIN. 

the school in GA that closed for 2 weeks is opening back up LOL

 

have fun with the lawsuits. that school district is going to be absolutely destroyed in court and drained from all money. 

If they follow the NYS guidelines, as all school districts are, then who do you sue? The state?

[Penfield45]

4 minutes ago, BeerLeagueHockey said:

If they follow the NYS guidelines, as all school districts are, then who do you sue? The state?

 

you sue the people enforcing the guidelines, hence the school district. 

 

if you are forcing children to go back to school and it is not a safe environment that is on you. sorry enjoy the lawsuits 

Edited August 14, 2020 by Penfield45

[ziltoid]

1 minute ago, Penfield45 said:

 

you sue the people enforcing the guidelines, hence the school district. 

 

if you are forcing children to go back to school and it is not a safe environment that is on you. sorry enjoy the lawsuits 

Buck stops with Cuomo, talk to him Mr. Litigious.

[keepthefaith]

3 minutes ago, Penfield45 said:

 

you sue the people enforcing the guidelines, hence the school district. 

 

if you are forcing children to go back to school and it is not a safe environment that is on you. sorry enjoy the lawsuits 

 

Good luck.  Schools in many areas enjoy immunity against various law suits and liability. 

[Penfield45]

2 minutes ago, keepthefaith said:

 

Good luck.  Schools in many areas enjoy immunity against various law suits and liability. 

 

scary path to follow here. this is america, we deal with mass school shootings on the regular. 

 

all it takes is one angry fed up kid. 

[Big Blitz]

1 hour ago, Penfield45 said:

 

are you ***** stupid? like honestly. Real actual question 

 

The reason children are in the headlines  is because SCHOOL IS STARTING AGAIN. 

the school in GA that closed for 2 weeks is opening back up LOL

 

have fun with the lawsuits. that school district is going to be absolutely destroyed in court and drained from all money. 

 

 

School districts are going to actually be drained of all money because this isn't sustainable.  The other side of the damage caused by Covid far outweigh the virus itself.   You just won't see it for a few months or years.  I expect a full on disaster of virtual learning by end of September.  But anyway..

 

Hoping for zero cases is asinine.  New Zealand locked down their country over 4 cases.  Their economy is in free fall.  

 

4 cases.  Lock it down.  That means YEARS of this nonsense here.  Have we really shown that when cases are "low" and the magic metrics they are making up as they go are met arent going to lead to the same freaking song and dance shutdown close it down repeat.  No.  Absolutely not.  Teachers are writing wills you know.  

 

Explain to me how we're supposed to get these kids back to school and I don't know....socializing, playing sports, developing whatever skills they have only 1 chance to do so.....when the reaction to 1 case will be to stop the world.  

 

How is this sustainable?  This virus does not warrant what we are doing to society.  At all.  99.5% survival rate.  We now know who to protect.  We are treating it better.  Annnnnnd we moved the goal posts to....till a vaccine.  Unacceptable.  

 

 

 

To the point I was making that you responded to.......kids have already been in schools with Covid everywhere specifically in the NE.  And the deaths in NYC were 50% or more in Assisted Living Facilities and had a median age of death over 80.  Where were the issues in the schools with kids and teachers?  Did any die?  So I said apparently the virus only found old people.  Which is of course ridiculous.  Kids had it.  Took tylenol (which you should instead of Motrin).  Went back to school.    

 

This isn't right or justifiable what we are doing to them because irrational adults can't understand statistics.  They can get it anywhere.  If anything, at least we can track them when they're in school.  Their teacher is no more or less likely to not be at the Zoom meeting bc they got Covid hanging out with their own friends or family.  Won't the kids be traumatized??!!  

 

 

[Kemp]

14 hours ago, GG said:

 

I linked an existing application of an antiseptic that is ingested into the nose to prevent infections, moron.  @BillsFanNC linked other studies of disinfectant agents that are meant to be delivered inside a body.

 

Are you ever not a moron?

 

You don’t know what the word context even means. That's pretty funny. Funny is generous.

 

 

[Kemp]

12 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Are you STILL talking about this? Really? Let me make a suggestion...vote for Biden. 

 

When a President says something a 12--year-old would be laughed at for saying, it's a big deal. I understand that. To you, it's not a particularly stupid statement. That's sad.

[shoshin]

 

 

Also may be an interesting listen. I work a lot in India. 
 

https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/shruti-rajagopalan-covid19-and-india/

 

When COVID-19 hit the US, everyone was told that hand sanitizer needed to be saved for healthcare professionals and to just wash their hands instead. But in India, many homes lack reliable piped water, so they had to do the opposite: distribute hand sanitizer as widely as possible.

 

American advocates for banning single-use plastic straws might be outraged at the widespread adoption of single-use hand sanitizer sachets in India. But the US and India are very different places, and it might be the only way out when you’re facing a pandemic without running water.

 

According to today’s guest, Shruti Rajagopalan, Senior Research Fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, context is key to policy. Back in April this prompted Shruti to propose a suite of policy responses designed for India specifically.

 

Unfortunately she also thinks it’s surprisingly hard to know what one should and shouldn’t imitate from overseas.

 

For instance, some places in India installed shared handwashing stations in bus stops and train stations, which is something no developed country would recommend. But in India, you can’t necessarily wash your hands at home — so shared faucets might be the lesser of two evils. (Though note scientists now regard hand hygiene as less central to controlling COVID-19.)

 

Stay-at-home orders present a more serious example. 

 

Edited August 14, 2020 by shoshin

[BillStime]

Yup - what a leader 

 

 

[Magox]

More on Sweden and how they got it right.

 

 

Quote

 

 

 

So now we know: Sweden got it largely right, and the British establishment catastrophically wrong. Anders Tegnell, Stockholm’s epidemiologist-king, has pulled off a remarkable triple whammy: far fewer deaths per capita than Britain, a maintenance of basic freedoms and opportunities, including schooling, and, most strikingly, a recession less than half as severe as our own.

Our arrogant quangocrats and state “experts” should hang their heads in shame: their reaction to coronavirus was one of the greatest public policy blunders in modern history, more severe even than Iraq, Afghanistan, the financial crisis, Suez or the ERM fiasco. Millions will lose their jobs when furlough ends; tens of thousands of small businesses are failing; schooling is in chaos, with A-level grades all over the place; vast numbers are likely to die from untreated or undetected illnesses; and we have seen the first exodus of foreigners in years, with the labour market survey suggesting a decline in non-UK born adults.

Pandemics always come with large economic and social costs, for reasons of altruism as well as of self-interest. The only way to contain the spread of a deadly, contagious disease, in the absence of a cure or vaccine, is to social distance; fear and panic inevitably kick in, as the public desperately seeks to avoid catching the virus. A “voluntary” recession is almost guaranteed.

But if a drop in GDP is unavoidable, governments can influence its size and scale. Politicians can react in one of three ways to a pandemic. They can do nothing, and allow the disease to rip until herd immunity is reached. Quite rightly, no government has pursued this policy, out of fear of mass deaths and total social and economic collapse.

 

 

 

Quote

 

The second approach involves imposing proportionate restrictions to facilitate social distancing, banning certain sorts of gatherings while encouraging and informing the public. The Swedes pursued a version of this centrist strategy: there was a fair bit of compulsion, but also a focus on retaining normal life and keeping schools open. The virus was taken very seriously, but there was no formal lockdown. Tegnell is one of the few genuine heroes of this crisis: he identified the correct trade-offs.

The third option is the full-on statist approach, which imposes a legally binding lockdown and shuts down society. Such a blunderbuss approach may be right under certain circumstances – if a vaccine is imminent – or for some viruses – for example, if we are ever hit with one that targets children and comes with a much higher fatality rate – but the latest economic and mortality statistics suggest this wasn’t so for Covid-19.

Almost all economists thought that Sweden’s economy would suffer hugely from its idiosyncratic strategy. They were wrong. Sweden’s GDP fell by just 8.6 per cent in the first half of the year, all in the second quarter, and its excess deaths jumped 24 per cent. A big part of Sweden’s recession was caused by a slump in demand for its exports from its fully locked-down neighbours. One could speculate that had all countries pursued a Swedish-style strategy, the economic hit could have been worth no more than 3-4 per cent of GDP. That could be seen as the core cost of the virus under a sensible policy reaction.

 

 

Quote

By contrast, Britain’s economy slumped by 22.2 per cent in the first half of the year, a performance almost three times as bad as Sweden’s, and its excess deaths shot up by 45 per cent. Spain’s national income slumped even more (22.7 per cent), and France’s (down 18.9 per cent) and Italy’s (down 17.1 per cent) slightly less, but all three also suffered far greater per capita excess deaths than Sweden. The Swedes allowed the virus to spread in care homes, so if that major failure had been fixed, their death rate could have been a lot lower still

 

 

A better gauge to judge the public health response will be to view the excess deaths as that would encompass all the deaths whether it was COVID or COVID indirectly related deaths.  I have a very strong hunch that the excess death count will continue to trend in Sweden's favor relative to the rest of Europe, North and South America.   They will have largely burnt out, they won't have nearly as many residual deleterious public health effects such as suicides, drug overdoses, crime, lack of care etc that were caused by the draconian measures.    

 

[SoCal Deek]

Without quoting the entire article on India above, what made me laugh is that ‘many scientists now downplay the need for hand washing as central to controlling Covid spread’. I’m glad we’re following The Science because apparently the scientific community doesn’t have a clue as to what to do about Covid 19. I’m betting tomorrow Fauchi comes out promoting foot washing.