The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[Tiberius]

So Trump can pardon a psychopathic war criminal because the right wing likes his murdering attitude, but an officer who wants to get his men off a navy ship infested with a virus is fired. Leadership! 

[Bob in Mich]

17 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

1. No, Bob, I have criticized people for fear mongering and dire predictions while offering no substantive data to back it up, and no willingness to engage in an intellectual discussion about it. I have clearly stated what I think will happen and why. I have provided data and analyses.

 

2. I clearly stated in the post you quoted, that I will be more than willing to admit I was wrong if the numbers turn out to be worse.

 

3. I have never minimized it. I have been very clear, consistent, and, IMO, rational in what I have stated.

 

And, no, I don't think calming people in a time of crisis makes things worse. My experience is that panic, blame, and fearmongering are what makes crises worse than they should be.

 

So, would you like to give your opinion as to what you think will happen and provide your supporting data?

 

 

 

Somehow you fancy your analysis as valid while that of those who were correct, as poor. 

 

No, I don't wish to discuss death predictions with you.  Thanks anyway.

 

Just curious as to what will finally have to happen to get the danger minimizers around here to admit that their postings offered foolish advice

[Warren Zevon]

2 minutes ago, Bob in Mich said:

 

Just curious as to what will finally have to happen to get the danger minimizers around here to admit that their postings offered foolish advice

 

lol c'mon Bob

 

[shoshin]

8 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

So Trump can pardon a psychopathic war criminal because the right wing likes his murdering attitude, but an officer who wants to get his men off a navy ship infested with a virus is fired. Leadership! 

 

Annoying but minor. Keep your lid on straight and focus on our national response to this virus medically and for the economy. 

[billsfan1959]

1 minute ago, Bob in Mich said:

 

Somehow you fancy your analysis as valid while that of those who were correct, as poor. 

 

No, I don't wish to discuss death predictions with you.  Thanks anyway.

 

Just curious as to what will finally have to happen to get the danger minimizers around here to admit that their postings offered foolish advice

 

Whenever a debate takes place, each side believes his/her point is more valid, Bob. That has been the nature of debates since, oh, I don't know, probably the beginning of time?

 

And of course you do not wish to discuss anything. Entertaining other perspectives isn't your strong suit.

[Tiberius]

2 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Annoying but minor. Keep your lid on straight and focus on our national response to this virus medically and for the economy. 

Wow, I'm being scolded about message discipline!  

 

[shoshin]

Just now, Tiberius said:

Wow, I'm being scolded about message discipline!  

 

 

No, I'm suggesting that we should all look forward to a time when we can dedicate energy to small issues again, instead of the 1000 dead/day economy crippling virus. 

[Beast]

1 hour ago, shoshin said:

 

The underlined was and easy reaction to predict. We social distance and the spread and deaths maybe level in a few weeks and after that, go down...and people then say, "See, it wasn't as bad as people said it would be." 

 

What do you think will happen when we lift the quarantine and the vast majority of the population gets exposed to this instead of the small numbers that we are seeing now? 

 

 

 

If you think people are staying home I have a bridge to sell you.

 

99.9% of people need to go to the grocery store....you know, where there are a ton of people and social distancing is impossible?

Edited April 3, 2020 by Binghamton Beast

[Tiberius]

8 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Whenever a debate takes place, each side believes his/her point is more valid, Bob. That has been the nature of debates since, oh, I don't know, probably the beginning of time?

 

And of course you do not wish to discuss anything. Entertaining other perspectives isn't your strong suit.

Wrong! At the beginning of time there was no earth or humans or even much of a universe, it had just started to expand. 

 

Now, did pre-humans like Ho mo-Erectus or Australopithecus argue? We don't know. Neanderthal man probably did...before we Ho mo Sapiens murdered them off!  

Edited April 3, 2020 by Tiberius

[Bob in Mich]

1 minute ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Whenever a debate takes place, each side believes his/her point is more valid, Bob. That has been the nature of debates since, oh, I don't know, probably the beginning of time?

 

And of course you do not wish to discuss anything. Entertaining other perspectives isn't your strong suit.

 

Yeah, though see, to treat this as just an academic debate was and still is the biggest mistake.  This is a life and death situation and some fools here may actually value your advice and follow it. 

 

This is a highly contagious virus that can kill you or a loved one.  Not you specifically, but when the advice under those circumstances is, 'no big deal....go about your business....ignore the chicken littles', that could have consequences far beyond winning or losing an academic debate.  Giving the uneducated some fear by putting forth dire predictions may have caused greater caution sooner.  What you are calling panic, I would call a much greater respect and fear of this virus

[GG]

7 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

 

Up yesterday in NYS, declined in NYC though. 

 

Don't know if graph smooths out the reported numbers  on 4/1 and 4/2, but in the official reporting there was a spike on 4/1 and a drop of 180 deaths on 4/2.  Even if you average out 4/1 and 4/2, the number is promising

[shoshin]

3 minutes ago, GG said:

 

Don't know if graph smooths out the reported numbers  on 4/1 and 4/2, but in the official reporting there was a spike on 4/1 and a drop of 180 deaths on 4/2.  Even if you average out 4/1 and 4/2, the number is promising

 

NYC deaths declined for sure. It was the NYS deaths that continued to increase. I wasn't questioning his optimism, just which NY (C vs S) he was talking about.

 

Way way way too early to have a single day be worthy of trend excitement. See 3/29 below.  

 

Edited April 3, 2020 by shoshin

[B-Man]

 

University of Pittsburgh scientists believe they found potential coronavirus vaccine

by Vincent Barone

 

Original Article

 

Scientists at the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine believe that they’ve found a potential vaccine for the new coronavirus.The researchers announced their findings Thursday and believe the vaccine could be rolled out quickly enough to “significantly impact the spread of disease,” according to their study published in EBioMedicine. The vaccine would be delivered on a small, fingertip-sized patch. When tested on mice, the vaccine produced enough antibodies believed to successfully counteract the virus.

 

 

 

.

[GG]

1 minute ago, shoshin said:

 

NYC deaths declined for sure. It was the NYS deaths that continued to increase. 

 

 

What's the source of the data, because it doesn't correlate with the other trackers.

[meazza]

7 minutes ago, GG said:

 

Don't know if graph smooths out the reported numbers  on 4/1 and 4/2, but in the official reporting there was a spike on 4/1 and a drop of 180 deaths on 4/2.  Even if you average out 4/1 and 4/2, the number is promising

 

Is deaths the metric to follow or new cases?  

[GG]

2 minutes ago, meazza said:

 

Is deaths the metric to follow or new cases?  

 

Both.  The death rate should lag the infection rate by about 7-10 days.

 

BTW, NY new case growth seems to be peaking.

Edited April 3, 2020 by GG

[B-Man]

New York City is Miscalculating Chinese virus death rates

by Matthew Vadum

 

Original Article

 

 

The mass hysteria over COVID-19 in the U.S. is driven in large measure by misleading statistics and bad math about the disease’s body count.

(snip)

The problem starts with the fact that the highly influential statistics from the Big Apple paint a false picture of what is actually happening. In New York City, the death of anyone who dies who tests positive for COVID-19 is counted as a coronavirus death. This is the case even if the coronavirus failed to play a significant role in the person’s passing or illness. This calculus violates established scientific standards.

 

.

[billsfan1959]

13 minutes ago, Bob in Mich said:

 

Yeah, though see, to treat this as just an academic debate was and still is the biggest mistake.  This is a life and death situation and some fools here may actually value your advice and follow it. 

 

This is a highly contagious virus that can kill you or a loved one.  Not you specifically, but when the advice under those circumstances is, 'no big deal....go about your business....ignore the chicken littles', that could have consequences far beyond winning or losing an academic debate.  Giving the uneducated some fear by putting forth dire predictions may have caused greater caution sooner.  What you are calling panic, I would call a much greater respect and fear of this virus

 

My advice has always been to take the precautions you are told to take. If you can find a post that says otherwise please let me know. 

 

It seems you and others, who have been so vociferous in criticizing Trump about not listening to the scientific information from doctors, scientists, and researchers, don't actually practice what you preach. This is not time to look at, analyze, and debate the data! This is a time to react purely from an emotional perspective!

 

I don't want you or your loved ones to die from this virus. Of course, I don't want you or any of your loved ones to be among the 2.8 million people who will die in this country this year from a variety of causes - many of which could actually be preventable as well.

Edited April 3, 2020 by billsfan1959

[123719bwiqrb]

8 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

University of Pittsburgh scientists believe they found potential coronavirus vaccine

by Vincent Barone

 

Original Article

 

Scientists at the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine believe that they’ve found a potential vaccine for the new coronavirus.The researchers announced their findings Thursday and believe the vaccine could be rolled out quickly enough to “significantly impact the spread of disease,” according to their study published in EBioMedicine. The vaccine would be delivered on a small, fingertip-sized patch. When tested on mice, the vaccine produced enough antibodies believed to successfully counteract the virus.

 

 

 

.

 

This is great.  Then reality sets in:

 

The study’s authors are now applying for an investigational new drug approval from the US Food and Drug Administration. They hope to start human clinical trials within the next few months.

 

 

[meazza]

2 minutes ago, GG said:

 

Both.  The death rate should lag the infection rate by about 7-10 days.

 

BTW, NY new case growth seems to be peaking.

 

That's good news.

 

 

[billsfan1959]

9 minutes ago, B-Man said:

New York City is Miscalculating Chinese virus death rates

by Matthew Vadum

 

Original Article

 

 

The mass hysteria over COVID-19 in the U.S. is driven in large measure by misleading statistics and bad math about the disease’s body count.

(snip)

The problem starts with the fact that the highly influential statistics from the Big Apple paint a false picture of what is actually happening. In New York City, the death of anyone who dies who tests positive for COVID-19 is counted as a coronavirus death. This is the case even if the coronavirus failed to play a significant role in the person’s passing or illness. This calculus violates established scientific standards.

 

.

 

I have no idea if deaths attributed to the virus are inflated; however, it is an intersting topic. According to the data, approximately 85% of all virus related deaths occur in people with at least one pre-existing chronic condition - and many with more than one.

 

Just off hand, I would think the virus would likely be the catalyst, or at least a contributing factor. I imagine It is something that will be evaluated at some point.

Edited April 3, 2020 by billsfan1959

[GG]

10 minutes ago, B-Man said:

New York City is Miscalculating Chinese virus death rates

by Matthew Vadum

 

Original Article

 

 

The mass hysteria over COVID-19 in the U.S. is driven in large measure by misleading statistics and bad math about the disease’s body count.

(snip)

The problem starts with the fact that the highly influential statistics from the Big Apple paint a false picture of what is actually happening. In New York City, the death of anyone who dies who tests positive for COVID-19 is counted as a coronavirus death. This is the case even if the coronavirus failed to play a significant role in the person’s passing or illness. This calculus violates established scientific standards.

 

.

 

I don't find this line of thinking as offering much value at this point or in the future.  The primary determinant should be whether the underlying condition still be triggered if Wuhan virus didn't exist.  Resources need to be planned based on the case, severity and mortality.   There's been talk about Italy overstating its Covid cases, yet data also shows that total deaths in Lombardy are running 50% higher than in prior years.  That's pretty clear conclusion of the virus's impact.

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

1 hour ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/jared-kushner-stockpile-091408992.html
 

Jared Kushner, White House adviser and son-in-law to President Donald Trump, declared on Thursday that the stockpiles of much-needed supplies governors were requesting to help with the coronaviruspandemic weren’t actually meant for the states.

 

“The notion of the federal stockpile was it’s supposed to be our stockpile,” Kushner said. “It’s not supposed to be states’ stockpiles that they then use.” 
 

 

Lots of words to this story. Why not just link the clip in full and let the viewe le decide.  "Patted himself on the back"?  Never happened, I saw the clip. 

 

Is your contention that the feds actually stockpile a certain number per state, and NY property is NY property, Iowa to Iowa etc?  Because it seems to me JK accurately described the relationship of the feds to the states.  Why is that a problem? 

[shoshin]

26 minutes ago, GG said:

 

What's the source of the data, because it doesn't correlate with the other trackers.

 

The gothamist website, and it looks like they get it from NYS/NYC data. It shows 180ish deaths on 4/2, which is what you're saying. 

 

When I look at the NYC Health Dept info, they show less than 150 deaths on 4/2 (but also fewer on 4/1). I bet it has something to do with a measure of Manhattan vs NYC Metro or something like that. But they both show the big drop from 4/1 to 4/2. 

 

Either way, there was a one day drop, and I love it because of the human impact but it's not trending news yet. We should expect to see a leveling for a while before there's an actual drop. 

 

 

Edited April 3, 2020 by shoshin

[RiotAct]

from CNBC:

 

”Gov “. Andrew Cuomo said Friday that 2,935 New Yorkers died from the coronavirus over the past 24 hours“

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/new-york-gov-cuomo-says-state-saw-its-single-biggest-increase-in-coronavirus-deaths-yesterday.html

 

Is that true?

[Bob in Mich]

11 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

My advice has always been to take the precautions you are told to take. If you can find a post that says otherwise please let me know. 

 

It seems you and others, who have been so vociferous in criticizing Trump about not listening to the scientific information from doctors, scientists, and researchers, don't actually practice what you preach. This is not time to look at, analyze, and debate the data! This is a time to react purely from an emotional perspective!

 

I don't want you or your loved ones to die from this virus. Of course, I don't want you or any of your loved ones to be among the 2.8 million people who will die in this country this year from a variety of causes - many of which could actually be preventable as well.

 

I have watched this situation develop in other 'western medicine' countries that preceded us, such as Italy and Spain.  My views on this crisis have been fact based.  I could see when they were overwhelmed that we would get overwhelmed in at least some hot spots in this country.  Many here have focused on the differences to proclaim it would be different here.  Yes, there are several differences but to focus on those in the face of the major similarities, was/is a mistake.  

 

The same is happening here.  We are or will be overrun in some areas and the death rates then will climb in those areas.  Some of this is inevitable at this point.  Like watching a collision of huge ships, there may be time yet before the collision, but the die have been cast in some cities and the crash will happen.

 

I appreciate the wishes for good health.  I wish the same for you and your loved ones.  Stay smart, keep safe.

[shoshin]

24 minutes ago, GG said:

 

Both.  The death rate should lag the infection rate by about 7-10 days.

 

14 days is a better number. That would be about now to look for leveling but only if people abided the quarantine and if they didn't go infect their households, in which case the leveling will go on a bit. 

 

24 minutes ago, GG said:

BTW, NY new case growth seems to be peaking.

 

Too early, though the last 3 days are promising. There have been 3 day leveling moments before. 

39 minutes ago, Binghamton Beast said:

 

If you think people are staying home I have a bridge to sell you.

 

99.9% of people need to go to the grocery store....you know, where there are a ton of people and social distancing is impossible?

 

You're missing the point. We are not under house arrest. If the only close interaction people are having is at the grocery store and pharmacy, as recommended, that is a pretty massive social distancing campaign that will succeed for dampening this wave. 

 

 

[GG]

6 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

from CNBC:

 

”Gov “. Andrew Cuomo said Friday that 2,935 New Yorkers died from the coronavirus over the past 24 hours“

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/new-york-gov-cuomo-says-state-saw-its-single-biggest-increase-in-coronavirus-deaths-yesterday.html

 

Is that true?

 

2,935 is the total to date in NYS, not a daily number.

Edited April 3, 2020 by GG

[billsfan1959]

Just now, Bob in Mich said:

 

I have watched this situation develop in other 'western medicine' countries that preceded us, such as Italy and Spain.  My views on this crisis have been fact based.  I could see when they were overwhelmed that we would get overwhelmed in at least some hot spots in this country.  Many here have focused on the differences to proclaim it would be different here.  Yes, there are several differences but to focus on those in the face of the major similarities, was/is a mistake.  

 

The same is happening here.  We are or will be overrun in some areas and the death rates then will climb in those areas.  Some of this is inevitable at this point.  Like watching a collision of huge ships, there may be time yet before the collision, but the die have been cast in some cities and the crash will happen.

 

I appreciate the wishes for good health.  I wish the same for you and your loved ones.  Stay smart, keep safe.

 

Back at you.

 

In regard to being overwhelmed, I agree that it is one of the critical factors in the death rate. However, from what I have gathered from a variety of sources, I don't see, even in NYC, anywhere near the level that we have seen in Spain and Italy. I also think the lag behind of the rest of the country provides the time needed to ensure other areas never get overwhelmed to that point either.

 

Hope for the best and thanks for the reply.

[shoshin]

10 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

from CNBC:

 

”Gov “. Andrew Cuomo said Friday that 2,935 New Yorkers died from the coronavirus over the past 24 hours“

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/new-york-gov-cuomo-says-state-saw-its-single-biggest-increase-in-coronavirus-deaths-yesterday.html

 

Is that true?

 

No. Either he misspoke on the number or was misquoted. We have only had 1 day with more than 1000 deaths in US (4/1). 

 

The state (not the city) had it's biggest jump in deaths yesterday. That is true. ~430 or so. 

 

Edited April 3, 2020 by shoshin

[B-Man]

 

NANCY PELOSI ON 2/24: PAY NO ATTENTION TO THESE CHINESE CORONAVIRUS FEARS. “WE THINK IT’S VERY SAFE.”

 

 

 

[Deranged Rhino]

Just a reminder — the same asshat who said all this: (Most of which is completely untrue, especially about what others said) 

 

1 hour ago, Bob in Mich said:

 

Really?  For weeks you have criticized anyone here that has been posting dire predictions concerning this virus.  Certainly your right, and BuffaloGal, and Deek, Rhino, and everyone here saying this is not as bad as feared, have that right.  Are any of you yet ready to admit that you have been terribly wrong?

 

I just wonder if any of you have considered if you have caused anyone to actually get this virus.  After all you have been saying for weeks that this is not that bad and you have all been so critical of those saying this is going to be very bad.  You might feel that you have been quelling panic but I would like to know if any of you feel any responsibility or even guilt for minimizing this pandemic to the under educated here.

 

1 hour ago, Bob in Mich said:

 

Somehow you fancy your analysis as valid while that of those who were correct, as poor. 

 

No, I don't wish to discuss death predictions with you.  Thanks anyway.

 

Just curious as to what will finally have to happen to get the danger minimizers around here to admit that their postings offered foolish advice

Spent the first half of March wishing death upon anyone who disagreed with his opinion. 
 

... Asshats say asshat things — then run from them like cowards and try to claim the moral high ground. 

 

On 3/19/2020 at 9:54 AM, Bob in Mich said:

If there was justice in the universe, rather than culling the elderly, this virus would cull our world of the idiots.  Please God, start with those that continue to claim that this is all overblown.

 

Be a better man, Bob. Or ***** off. 

[B-Man]

SOME CORONAVIRUS PERSPECTIVE:

 

 

Click to enlarge.

 

Much-needed context. (Though, yes, it’s not over yet. Still.)”

 

[Warren Zevon]

3 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

No. Either he misspoke on the number or was misquoted. We have only had 1 day with more than 1000 deaths in NYS (4/1). 

 

The state (not the city) had it's biggest jump in deaths yesterday. That is true. ~430 or so. 

 

 

From Cuomo ~15 minutes ago

 

 

Just now, Deranged Rhino said:

 

 

2 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

NANCY PELOSI ON 2/24: PAY NO ATTENTION TO THESE CHINESE CORONAVIRUS FEARS. “WE THINK IT’S VERY SAFE.”

 

 

 

 

Not a good look for Nancy! 

[RiotAct]

oh, welL good thing CNBC doesn’t have millions of readers or anything!  SMH.  When I saws  that I was like “uhhhhhhh...”

[shoshin]

Just now, Gary Busey said:

 

From Cuomo ~15 minutes ago

 

 

 

I was looking at a calendar day of data from yesterday. 

 

The updated data he just gave definitely shows a huge spike. This is why one day trends are no good. 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/new-york-coronavirus-cases.html

 

[Beast]

13 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

14 days is a better number. That would be about now to look for leveling but only if people abided the quarantine and if they didn't go infect their households, in which case the leveling will go on a bit. 

 

 

Too early, though the last 3 days are promising. There have been 3 day leveling moments before. 

 

You're missing the point. We are not under house arrest. If the only close interaction people are having is at the grocery store and pharmacy, as recommended, that is a pretty massive social distancing campaign that will succeed for dampening this wave. 

 

 

 

My belief is you can still social distance and open business. In fact, social distancing may be a hell of a lot easier with more options of businesses that one in allowed to go to.

[Tiberius]

19 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

from CNBC:

 

”Gov “. Andrew Cuomo said Friday that 2,935 New Yorkers died from the coronavirus over the past 24 hours“

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/new-york-gov-cuomo-says-state-saw-its-single-biggest-increase-in-coronavirus-deaths-yesterday.html

 

Is that true?

Not what he said 

Quote

 

Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Friday that 2,935 New Yorkers have died from the coronavirus so far with 562 new deaths over the last 24 hours — the single-biggest daily increase in deaths since the outbreak began a few weeks ago.

“The curve continues to go up,” Cuomo said at a press conference in Albany, referring to the number of new COVID-19 cases across the state. There are 102,863 confirmed cases across the state, a 10% jump overnight, according to charts presented at the press conference. New York city alone accounts for 57,159 total cases, up 5,350 over the last 24 hours. 

 

 

[shoshin]

1 minute ago, Binghamton Beast said:

 

My belief is you can still social distance and open business. In fact, social distancing may be a hell of a lot easier with more options of businesses that one in allowed to go to.

 

That's probably why you're not on Pence's pandemic team Amigo. 

[Beast]

2 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

That's probably why you're not on Pence's pandemic team Amigo. 

 

Right.

Instead, when one needs something, go to the crowded store where everyone has to go instead of spreading people out, all the while keeping social distancing in mind.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 3, 2020 by Binghamton Beast