MAJBobby Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 ***Disclaimer*** I will not put all Names not on the Bills in this thread as it would get to long, I will keep it to a couple names in each tier (as I see them). Hope you enjoy the read. Did TE early for @RyanC883 Currently on Roster: (Positional Spending 5 players 11.120M Cap ranked 10th in league) Tyler Kroft (UFA 2022) – Saves 4.812M against cap if Cut Lee Smith (UFA 2022) – Saves 2.25M against the cap if Cut. Dawson Knox (UFA 2023) Tommy Sweeny (UFA 2023) Nate Becker (signed futures deal) My Take: First, I would want more production out of this group that is 10th in the league in terms of Cap Commitment. A heck of a lot more when the position group accounted for only: 46 rec, 604 yards 13.13 avg, 4 TDs. Those numbers as a group would rank them as the 13th best TE in Rec, 11th best in yards, 20th in AVG, tied for 14th in TDs. This position group is on the verge of being great IMO. Also, there are to very easy cap savings moves if you go and get more. I do think more is needed and if the Bills choose to do that, we will have one of the best TE room in the league and could be argued would be even better than Baltimore. I will get to those move(s) later. But First let m address the current Situation at this group. Dawson Knox for a rookie did well, however a major issue that you cannot have with your TE is the drops. H was tied for 4th in the league with 6 drops. Add that into his 56.0% (28 rec 50 tgts) catch rate and you have a lot of drive killers, when your TE should be reliable for your QB. What was interesting is when I looked at his numbers compared to other TEs and what sticks out to me is that he has respectable numbers for a NO 2 TE. Ranked 36 in receptions, 23rd in Yards, 15th in AVG, 15th in 20+ catches and has a 53.6% 1st down rate. Everyone knew he was raw coming out of School, and it showed. I don’t think the plan ever was to have him start at TE, the INJ to Kroft solidified that this season and he struggled. However, if he can fix the Drops and the Catch % I think there is something here. The rest of the group I don’t really have much to talk about here except with Sweeney, in the limited opportunities he has had he has performed and that is a good thing. I look at him as a younger better option than both Smith and Kroft. So, I would improve this position with 2 (likely one Draft and 1 UFA). You can easily walk away from Lee Smith and Kroft for savings and improve the position group at the same time, now before I get into that, because there is no immediate cap need, these two stays on the Roster until that improvement is on the team. UFAs Possible Tier 1: Hunter Henry (likely a 9.5M AVV) Austin Hooper (likely a 10.5M AVV) Tier 2: Tyler Eifert Jacob Hollister Eric Ebron Possible Trade Market Greg Olsen OJ Howard Draft Tier 1: Brysen Hopkins (Purdue) Hunter Bryant (Washington) Albert Okwuegbunam (Missouri) Cole Kmet (ND) Tier 2: Jared Pinkney (Vanderbilt) Colby Parkinson (Stanford) Cheyenne O’Grady (Arkansas) Tier 3: Harrison Bryant (FAU) Josiah Deguara (Cincy) Mitchell Wilcox (South FL) Final thinking in this Position group for me would be: Sign Austin Hooper (25 yrs old). 5 years 50M with 33 guaranteed, AVV 10M per. That brings another 75 receptions and 6 TDs. Gives Bills a legit game breaking TE at the TE1 and puts Knox in the TE2 role which would be perfect. I also would go get Okwugbunam in the draft (likely a 4th rounder or later for a developmental athletic freak). After signing Hooper (back up plan would be Henry) I would release (don’t think I would find a pick for him) Kroft. Another thing about Hooper is he would put the Veteran in the room that McD and Beane love so much, just one that can really play. I also have Sweeney take over for Smith and cut Smith as well. (Both Kroft and Smith might be post camp cuts as no immediate need for the cap space). That would put the TE room going into camp something like this: Austin Hooper Dawson Knox Tommy Sweeney Albert Okwubunam Tyler Kroft Lee Smith Nate Becker Now getting Hooper or Henry likely means no drafted player in the position and I am OK with that as well, just showing the TE I would like out of this class. But I would rather spend my 10M a year with Hooper or Henry over spending it in WR. I was OK with this group this season, they underperformed IMO based on the Cap Space allocated to it. However there are two young talents that can grow, now go get a legit TE to add to this group and give Allen a reliable TE. 9 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Ripster Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Man, keeping Knox and getting Hooper or Ebron would be so huge for Josh Allen's check down. Great post MAJBOBBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solomon Grundy Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 If Hooper is acquired, cut Kroft and Smith the second after. Save 7 mil. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted January 7, 2020 Author Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, the skycap said: If Hooper is acquired, cut Kroft and Smith the second after. Save 7 mil. yep that would occur maybe around camp after trying to shop them and make sure all others a healthy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CBD Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 My gut on what they'll do for this group is...nothing. All 4 that they currently have will come back for one more season. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CommonCents Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, The_Ripster said: Man, keeping Knox and getting Hooper or Ebron would be so huge for Josh Allen's check down. Great post MAJBOBBY. Ebron is jealous of Duke William’s ability to catch. No way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed83HOF Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 6 minutes ago, the skycap said: If Hooper is acquired, cut Kroft and Smith the second after. Save 7 mil. can't argue with any of this -it is beyond the smart move and dramatically improves our passing game for a $3 million/year raise 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Ripster Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, CommonCents said: Ebron is jealous of Duke William’s ability to catch. No way. ? Ebron is the definition of a goon. But for some reason I have vivid memories of him killing me in DFS sports bets like every week. He's a monster and can throw some blocks here and there I believe. But TBH yo, Hooper is that guy that I think would help us the most at TE. And for what it's worth I feel like Lee smith attributed to us losing at least 2 games this season and I'd l be happy to see him cut asap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted January 7, 2020 Author Share Posted January 7, 2020 (edited) 10 minutes ago, CBD said: My gut on what they'll do for this group is...nothing. All 4 that they currently have will come back for one more season. That very well could happen if Hooper or Henry dont hit the market. Not sure I can definitely point to any of those UFA TEs outside those two would upgrade the room. If they don’t go UFA route I could easily see another TE taken in draft. weapons are weapons. They don’t have to be outside at WR. I think with a reliable TE in thei group like a Hooper and people wouldn’t be screaming for that Big Physical WR. additionally more evidence on the importance of this group. look at Tom Brady when he lost his TEs Look at the current group of young QBs. Seems the ones that have made strides have a legit TE on their roster. Mahomes - Kelce Jimmy G - Kittle Wentz - Ertz and Goedart Lamar - Andrews and Hurst Baker - Better with Njoku on the field Darnold - Started looking for with Griffin after missing his TE all season. Edited January 7, 2020 by MAJBobby 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed83HOF Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, MAJBobby said: That very well could happen if Hooper or Henry dont hit the market. Not sure I can definitely point to any of those UFA TEs outside those two would upgrade the room. If they don’t go UFA route I could easily see another TE taken in draft. weapons are weapons. They don’t have to be outside at WR. I think with a reliable TE in thei group like a Hooper and people wouldn’t be screaming for that Big Physical WR. A QB's best friend is a reliable TE with hands. Henry is injury prone, so I almost have him off my list. I'm not sure ATL guts their roster to save Hooper, who has not heard about an extentions from the Falcons as of yet.... The Falcons aren’t in cap hell after restructuring Grady Jarrett and Matt Ryan’s deals to free up some space, but they still barely have enough cap space to pay their entire rookie class, much less free agents. That cash will have to come from veterans with sizeable contracts, for better or for worse. Other cuts may be necessary to free up room but come with more readily apparent costs. There’s no one on the roster or in the locker room ready to replace Ricardo Allen, for example, and there’s no center-in-waiting if the Falcons move on from Alex Mack. If the team has some priority free agents in mind or really want to pony up for Hooper and Campbell, they may have to saw to the bone to do so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted January 7, 2020 Author Share Posted January 7, 2020 1 minute ago, Reed83HOF said: A QB's best friend is a reliable TE with hands. Henry is injury prone, so I almost have him off my list. I'm not sure ATL guts their roster to save Hooper, who has not heard about an extentions from the Falcons as of yet.... The Falcons aren’t in cap hell after restructuring Grady Jarrett and Matt Ryan’s deals to free up some space, but they still barely have enough cap space to pay their entire rookie class, much less free agents. That cash will have to come from veterans with sizeable contracts, for better or for worse. Other cuts may be necessary to free up room but come with more readily apparent costs. There’s no one on the roster or in the locker room ready to replace Ricardo Allen, for example, and there’s no center-in-waiting if the Falcons move on from Alex Mack. If the team has some priority free agents in mind or really want to pony up for Hooper and Campbell, they may have to saw to the bone to do so. yeah only reason I don’t like doing these things now because teams can always get under cap. But at least what is shows is the UFA Depth at the specific position relative to what is already on the roster. that is why I see this position group as thin because there really are only 2 (Henry and Hooper) that can be seen as immediate upgrades. The others seem to just be shuffling names. For example at this point I do not see an old Eifert coming in and pushing Knox down to TE2. Only two I see doing that are Hooper and Henry that is my thinking in these not so much how to improve the bottom of the position group because that is easy. But what is needed to put players where I see them as their best spot and right now that is Knox as TE2. So I have to get better than him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Knox has the potential. His progress will go a long way toward developing the offense as a whole. He needs to learn to catch reliably, obviously, but he's got solid athleticism. Learning to use that in terms of route running (he's not going to just overpower guys going for jump balls like Rudolph or Andrews, but as far as skillset I think he compares favorably to a guy like Dallas Goedert who is also a terrific blocking TE) and just getting a feel for the position is going to help Allen immensely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machine gun kelly Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 MAJ - I appreciate you’re trying to provide us more info especially the draft class, but it’s impossible as I think you said in a later post to predict who is truly available in free agency yet. We just have to wait and see. When day 1 in free agency comes, this will be a great time for all of you learned TBDers to post this type of list for all of our needed upgrades. I welcome it and MAJ, I know you’re heart and efforts were in the right place, so thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gambit Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 I have been hoping we would land Hooper forever. This guy would help Josh out so damn much. And if Knox continues to trend upward we would have two solid TEs to work with. Draft Shenault also and holy hell do we have an Offense now. I'd also love Conklin from TN but I doubt that all of this would happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 I'm all for signing a vet FA to be TE1. Knox still has as much, if not more, to learn about playing the position as Josh does with QB. He may turn into a top flight TE someday but right now he's just a tease. Sweeney's the epitome of a TE3 that you can count on in a reserve/ST role for 7-8 years. Everyone else is disposable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted January 7, 2020 Author Share Posted January 7, 2020 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Gambit said: I have been hoping we would land Hooper forever. This guy would help Josh out so damn much. And if Knox continues to trend upward we would have two solid TEs to work with. Draft Shenault also and holy hell do we have an Offense now. I'd also love Conklin from TN but I doubt that all of this would happen. I have a sneaking suspicion that when I get to WRs later that is going to be what I recommend Edited January 7, 2020 by MAJBobby 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warren Zevon Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 Love it - Hooper or Henry would be my offensive FA and I'd get the best WR available at 22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted January 7, 2020 Author Share Posted January 7, 2020 6 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said: MAJ - I appreciate you’re trying to provide us more info especially the draft class, but it’s impossible as I think you said in a later post to predict who is truly available in free agency yet. We just have to wait and see. When day 1 in free agency comes, this will be a great time for all of you learned TBDers to post this type of list for all of our needed upgrades. I welcome it and MAJ, I know you’re heart and efforts were in the right place, so thank you. yeah Hard to do UFAs now. But one Franchise Tags are applied I tend to just do a post highlighting strictly UFA at that point. this is more of an early exercise for me looking at organizational depth on Bills and Depth in UFA classes at each group knowing some will go away and some more will get added. Just a snap shot in time. And for the first time in about 2 decades I haven’t started offseason stuff until January. Normally I am already well into offseason mode by November looking at needs and organizational depth etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LABILLBACKER Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 42 minutes ago, MAJBobby said: yep that would occur maybe around camp after trying to shop them and make sure all others a healthy Just cut them today. Smith & Kroft have absolutely no trade value whatsoever. Not even a 7th for them. Save the cap space. Hooper and a better hands Knox would make for a very good TE duo. We're still waiting for the arrival of a TE1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted January 7, 2020 Author Share Posted January 7, 2020 Just now, LABILLBACKER said: Just cut them today. Smith & Kroft have absolutely no trade value whatsoever. Not even a 7th for them. Save the cap space. Hooper and a better hands Knox would make for a very good TE duo. We're still waiting for the arrival of a TE1. And I won’t mind that either if they are cut immediately after Hooper is signed. We don’t have cap issues no reason to do it now until Hooper or Henry are already here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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