New NFL Trend - Adding QB Rushing and Passing TD’s together?

[Cripple Creek]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

But another interception and woeful passing numbers.   I don't care about national attention for Josh that this thread is crying out for........but statistically pitiful days like that aren't going to force critics to show love to Allen.

This matters why?

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

4 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

But another interception and woeful passing numbers.   I don't care about national attention for Josh that this thread is crying out for........but statistically pitiful days like that aren't going to force critics to show love to Allen.

 

A pick that went "high" on a 5'8" receiver. Heck, Beasley still got both hands on the ball. It probably should have been caught. 

 

[Doc]

6 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

But another interception and woeful passing numbers.   I don't care about national attention for Josh that this thread is crying out for........but statistically pitiful days like that aren't going to force critics to show love to Allen.

Interception was on Beasley and he had 3 other drops that would have put his completion percentage at 68% and yardage closer to 200. 

[BADOLBILZ]

Just now, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

A pick that went "high" on a 5'8" receiver. Heck, Beasley still got both hands on the ball. It probably should have been caught. 

 

 

 

Yeah but Josh was 2-11 between the numbers........he really struggled with accuracy and placement.........that interception was not a misrepresentation of his play.

 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

7 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah but Josh was 2-11 between the numbers........he really struggled with accuracy and placement.........that interception was not a misrepresentation of his play.

 

 

 

Maybe not, but it is the one you felt the need to point out. 

 

He didn't play great and perhaps not well but i wouldn't say bad either. If he had this performance against the Jets or Dolphins I would be disappointed. On the road, in prime-time against a top 5 defense? I'm cool with it. 

 

I was a big TT supporter when he was here for the record. But his play got worse with each season that he was here. It's all about where you are trending and where your ceiling is. Josh is currently trending in the right direction. And his ceiling is high given his inexperience. Those two factors are going in his favor right now.

 

Also, I recall the national media really loving TT. Even when he was traded to Cleveland. But he was terrible in Cleveland so we haven't heard much about him since he was benched for Baker.

Edited December 16, 2019 by Sammy Watkins' Rib

[BADOLBILZ]

7 minutes ago, Cripple Creek said:

This matters why?

 

 

Well duh......look at the thread title.......the discussion is about fans wanting Josh to be credited for statistical prowess.    

 

   

9 minutes ago, Doc said:

Interception was on Beasley and he had 3 other drops that would have put his completion percentage at 68% and yardage closer to 200. 

 

 

I agree.   They also had to catch some unnecessarily tough ones.   As Eric Wood said in the pregame the Bills really need a legit #1 WR with some size.   In these games against tough defenses it's really showing up that these tiny catch radius receivers are a challenge to operate an efficient passing game with.

[BADOLBILZ]

10 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Maybe not, but it is the one you felt the need to point out. 

 

He didn't play great and perhaps not well but i wouldn't say bad either. If he had this performance against the Jets or Dolphins I would be disappointed. On the road, in prime-time against a top 5 defense? I'm cool with it. 

I was a big TT supporter when he was here for the record. But his play got worse with each season that he was here. It's all about where you are trending and where your ceiling is. Josh is currently trending in the right direction. And his ceiling is high given his inexperience. Those two factors are going in his favor right now.

 

Also, I recall the national media really loving TT. Even when he was traded to Cleveland. But he was terrible in Cleveland so we haven't heard much about him since he was benched for Baker.

 

 

Again......this is NOT the game or postgame thread......the thread is about fans wanting Josh to get credit for outstanding statistics............pay attention.

 

It was a statistically negative game........13-25 139 2 combined TD 1 INT 63.9 QB rating.

 

Is he trending in the right direction while having two statistically bad games in a row?    Not statistically obviously.   And the better question is does it matter?   Improvement isn't necessarily linear.   He could end up with bottom 3rd stats for a QB then come back with better talent around him next year and become a top 5 statistical producer.    It's not a step ladder you can skip 10 steps at a time.

 

   

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Again......this is NOT the game or postgame thread......the thread is about fans wanting Josh to get credit for outstanding statistics............pay attention.

 

 

 

 

Good night, buddy.

 

[CincyBillsFan]

But how valuable are these stats?  They don't address situational football IMO.  I'm becoming more and more convinced that all these different QB metrics are somewhat meaningless.  The metrics I think are important are:

 

* Adding passing & rushing TD's together and then comparing that number to the sum of the interceptions & fumbles LOST by the QB.  With that metric Allen was 2 - 1 tonight and is 27 - 13 for the season.  That is very good.  And next year Allen's numbers here will be even better.

 

*  Clutch play.  This is a subjective metric that includes game winning drives and come from behind wins and performance in the 4th quarter & red zone.  I have no idea how you would quantitate this with a numerical value but Allen is above average in all these things.  Tonight he led a very critical, game winning TD drive.

 

*  Won/lost record.  Ultimately this is how QB's should be judged.  It's a harsh measure becasue they don't play ST's or defense. 

 

In only his 2nd year our project QB is improving and in some areas is quite good.  Considering he's not surrounded by elite play makers Allen is making excellent progress.  Remembering how posters responded to the Bills drafting Allen less then 2 years ago his development as our starting QB has to have exceeded expectations.

 

The continued nit picking in the face of this teams unprecedented success this season is depressing.

 

 

[DefenseWins]

On 12/14/2019 at 12:46 AM, DefenseWins said:

In 3 years with the Bills Tyrod had a total combined passing and rushing of 10,432 Yds and 65 TD's. He had signed a contract in 2017 paying him $15million per year.

In 2 yrs with the Billls Allen has a total combined passing and rushing of 5881 Yds and 43 TD's with 3 games left to play. He is making $5.3 million per year for 2 more years.

Assuming Allen throws for another 700 Yds and rushes for another 150 Yds and accounts for say another 7 Total TD's these last 3 games, that would give Allen approximately 6731 Yds and 50 TD's over his 1st 2 NFL seasons.

 

Also during Tyrod's tenure here he had 4 comebacks and 5 Game Winning Drives during his 3 seasons here while Allen in just less than 2 seasons has already had 5 comebacks and 7 Game Winning Drives.

 

 https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TaylTy00.htm

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02.htm

 

Cost being a serious consideration clearly seems to show that the Bills are getting slightly more production out of Allen in his 1st 2 seasons at a cost savings of $10 million per year.

 

UPDATE: After beating the Steelers tonight - make that 6 comebacks and 8 Game Winning Drives!

 

 

 

[Cripple Creek]

5 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Well duh......look at the thread title.......the discussion is about fans wanting Josh to be credited for statistical prowess.    

 

 

New NFL trend adding qb rushing and passing TDs together...

 

That one?

 

Points matter, but, more importantly wins matter.  I don't care what's in the sausage as long as it tastes good.

 

I guess McCoy is gone so you have to B word about something.

[Doc]

6 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

I agree.   They also had to catch some unnecessarily tough ones.   As Eric Wood said in the pregame the Bills really need a legit #1 WR with some size.   In these games against tough defenses it's really showing up that these tiny catch radius receivers are a challenge to operate an efficient passing game with.

 

They are paid millions to catch the ball and should be able to catch anything in their vicinity. 

[Hebert19]

7 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

But another interception and woeful passing numbers.   I don't care about national attention for Josh that this thread is crying out for........but statistically pitiful days like that aren't going to force critics to show love to Allen.

Who cares.  Another 4th quarter comeback

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Hebert19 said:

Who cares.  Another 4th quarter comeback

 

 

Like I said I really don't care that much about his stats this season.   He's got a bottom third cast of receivers with a particularly glaring hole with regard to guys who can get open deep AND win contested catches.   That matters a lot for a QB.......as noted last night James Washington was a ridiculous 8-8 on contested throws on the season.    That's an incredible boost to a QB.   That's why I wanted DK Metcalf as well............he's burned defenses deep but he has also caught 3 passes this year that had only a 17% chance of completion.......he and Wilson are the only QB/WR to combine for more than ONE of those types of completions.   I think Josh would have a lot more confidence in arcing his deep throws if he felt his receivers could high point or otherwise win contested throws.

 

I like the narrative that he's clutch though........I thought it was very important to create that impression and having a top defense across from him has allowed him to get credit for comebacks that are usually really just one score deficits.    In the future I am sure advanced stats will make "fourth quarter comebacks" go the way of the game-winning RBI in baseball but for now it is a great confidence boost for a young QB.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Doc said:

 

They are paid millions to catch the ball and should be able to catch anything in their vicinity. 

 

 

You could argue that QB's are paid even more to put the ball where it's easy to catch and create YAC.    Josh was awful in that regard last night.   You aren't going to distance yourself from the Trubisky's in the court of public opinion if you play like that when you get night games where the talking heads actually watch you play.    That said.........Trent Dilfer won a SB in 2000 with 59% completion and 6.6 yards per attempt which are exactly the same as Allen this year.........and Peyton Manning won a SB in a season where he threw 9 TD and 17 interceptions.........I don't care what his stats are if he wins a SB.   

[BuffaloHokie13]

Maybe I was ahead of the curve. Been doing this and tracking it since 2015

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, Cripple Creek said:

New NFL trend adding qb rushing and passing TDs together...

 

That one?

 

Points matter, but, more importantly wins matter.  I don't care what's in the sausage as long as it tastes good.

 

I guess McCoy is gone so you have to B word about something.

 

 

And I quote from OP:

 

"Ironically, I’ve seen very few people credit Josh Allen with 25 TD’s and 8 INT’s"  

 

I agree.......wins are what matters.......the idea that the kind of QB play that Tyrod or Allen have put up ultimately prevents the team from going deep into the playoffs was and is bullish*t.    But if you were one of those nervously hoping for "elite/franchise" QB verification you aren't going to get it this year.    The hope at this point should be to get thru this regular season and then either have the defense dominate in the playoffs or have Allen put up a SB Flacco-like post season or both.     

13 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Maybe I was ahead of the curve. Been doing this and tracking it since 2015

 

 

As I used to say when the Bills were scoring in bunches in 2016 and people were bitching about the lack of passing stats.........how are you going to throw for TD's and pass for yardage when you've already run the ball into the end zone?

 

 It's not a game of "21"........your possessions alternate.   Last night the Bills had 13 and the Steelers had 12.  You aren't going to get 5 more possessions than the opponent so any way you can score is good.

Edited December 16, 2019 by BADOLBILZ

[colin]

all this staturbation is making me crazy!!

 

TDs are a team stat.  you have to observe, understand, and contextualize the observations to know wtEFF is going on and who is good and who is not good.

 

tyrod had some juice to him early, but looking at his stats vs allen's is staturbation at it's most horrible.

 

the TT team had percy, watkins, woods, clay (meh, i know) prime mccoy, karlos (who was nasty for a minute) and LT to C that line was a MONSTER.

 

even in his last year, mccoy was still balling, the line was still intact, and watkins and woods were still out there, and gilliesee was a solid number two (compare him to the exhumed corpse of frank gore who we have now).  tyrod, while great at limiting mistakes, just simply could not make a play when it was needed.  he was a tortoise and if bottled up was junk.

 

all anyone has to do is watch some of his games to see this.  if allen was working with that talent that was around tyrod and roman as OC, he'd be the talk of the nfl.

 

some of you guys seem to think a steamy spreadsheet sesh gives you insight into the sport of kings, but it just just makes your hands smell and provides neck beard lube.

[BuffaloHokie13]

3 minutes ago, colin said:

even in his last year, mccoy was still balling, the line was still intact, and watkins and woods were still out there, and gilliesee was a solid number two (compare him to the exhumed corpse of frank gore who we have now).  tyrod, while great at limiting mistakes, just simply could not make a play when it was needed.  he was a tortoise and if bottled up was junk.

The line was a solid run blocking unit, but they lost Glenn early, and the right side was abysmal with Ducasse and Mills.

 

Neither Watkins, nor Woods were there. Our WRs were Zay, Holmes, Matthews, Deonte Thompson after everyone else got hurt, Brandon Tate, Kaelin Clay, and KB for a handful of games. Gillislee was also gone, as we replaced him with the mighty Tolbert. Maybe you forgot that Tyrod was here in '17? Regardless, it's easy to see how much the talent on O degraded from '15. It's one of the reasons I was thrilled to finally see them add some talent this past offseason. 

 

And I agree that he didn't usually make plays to come back from multiple scores often, but I suggest people go back and watch that Christmas eve game against Miami. Got the go ahead score with 1:20 left after being down 2 TDs. Defense and special teams couldn't stop a nose bleed.

[colin]

1 minute ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

The line was a solid run blocking unit, but they lost Glenn early, and the right side was abysmal with Ducasse and Mills.

 

Neither Watkins, nor Woods were there. Our WRs were Zay, Holmes, Matthews, Deonte Thompson after everyone else got hurt, Brandon Tate, Kaelin Clay, and KB for a handful of games. Gillislee was also gone, as we replaced him with the mighty Tolbert. Maybe you forgot that Tyrod was here in '17? Regardless, it's easy to see how much the talent on O degraded from '15. It's one of the reasons I was thrilled to finally see them add some talent this past offseason. 

 

And I agree that he didn't usually make plays to come back from multiple scores often, but I suggest people go back and watch that Christmas eve game against Miami. Got the go ahead score with 1:20 left after being down 2 TDs. Defense and special teams couldn't stop a nose bleed.

 

yeah, i meant the last rex year.

 

anyhow, the point stands, tyrod put up good stats when the team was putting up good stats because the scheme and talent on the O side of the ball was good.

 

once that faded (and mcD is a part of it because  he just seems to hate offense) altho we made the tourney in 2017, our O was trash and we needed miracle turnovers from the D and a gift from the bengals to get in.  in jax tyrod just couldn't make a play, at all.

[Cripple Creek]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

And I quote from OP:

 

"Ironically, I’ve seen very few people credit Josh Allen with 25 TD’s and 8 INT’s"  

 

I agree.......wins are what matters.......the idea that the kind of QB play that Tyrod or Allen have put up ultimately prevents the team from going deep into the playoffs was and is bullish*t.    But if you were one of those nervously hoping for "elite/franchise" QB verification you aren't going to get it this year.    The hope at this point should be to get thru this regular season and then either have the defense dominate in the playoffs or have Allen put up a SB Flacco-like post season or both.     

 

 

As I used to say when the Bills were scoring in bunches in 2016 and people were bitching about the lack of passing stats.........how are you going to throw for TD's and pass for yardage when you've already run the ball into the end zone?

 

 It's not a game of "21"........your possessions alternate.   Last night the Bills had 13 and the Steelers had 12.  You aren't going to get 5 more possessions than the opponent so any way you can score is good.

I accept your apology.

[Luka]

Are we really still talking about Tyrod? Still pining for Jackson?

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Cripple Creek said:

I accept your apology.

 

 

As previously noted I am now accepting "BADOL wasn't wrong" in place of "BADOL was right" for all of you who just can't bring yourself to say the latter.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Luka said:

Are we really still talking about Tyrod? Still pining for Jackson?

 

 

"Still" pining for Jackson?  He emerged as a superstar like 12 weeks ago not 12 years ago.    I'd have to say it's still kind of a fresh topic.  

 

That is reminiscent of people last year being upset that others were STILL talking about the decision to pass on Mahomes and wondering when discussion of that old as dino-***** topic would end. 

[Luka]

Just now, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

"Still" pining for Jackson?  He emerged as a superstar like 12 weeks ago not 12 years ago.    I'd have to say it's still kind of a fresh topic.  

 

That is reminiscent of people last year being upset that others were STILL talking about the decision to pass on Mahomes and wondering when discussion of that old as dino-***** topic would end. 

 

Yes, "still." As in he was drafted by the Ravens nearly two years ago now. Time to get over it. Not the first QB that's been good that we've passed on. Aaron Rodgers? Drew Brees? Russell Wilson? Nick Foles? Kirk Cousins? I mean, we've passed on a ***** ton of QBs over the years.

[dollars 2 donuts]

@Phil The Thrill

 

Somebody on this board has been hip to this for a little while.

 

 

 

 

Edited December 16, 2019 by dollars 2 donuts

[BADOLBILZ]

35 minutes ago, Luka said:

 

Yes, "still." As in he was drafted by the Ravens nearly two years ago now. Time to get over it. Not the first QB that's been good that we've passed on. Aaron Rodgers? Drew Brees? Russell Wilson? Nick Foles? Kirk Cousins? I mean, we've passed on a ***** ton of QBs over the years.

 

 

There is a very tangible difference between Mahomes/Jackson and those situations.

 

The Bills literally traded away the first round pick used to select Mahomes in real time.

 

And they literally chose a different first round QB over Jackson.........who was also a legit first round prospect.

 

Those other guys were cases where the Bills didn't even have a pick in that round(Rodgers) or they were guys not selected in round 1 so not necessarily respected as high end talents by other teams either.

 

Now I was probably the only person on TSW who had Tre White as the top CB in that draft and I am a fan of Allen and the pick and I think for a number of reasons Allen was the right pick for Buffalo(some which would not make for civil discussion).

 

But it's ridiculous to think that the path not taken isn't a huge storyline to be followed for many years.    Mahomes and Jackson should have long careers and they are already putting up league MVP numbers so Allen has a lot of work to do to get in the conversation as worthy of passing on those two.    It won't be good for us if he ends up as the Ken O'Brien of that combined two classes but the nice thing is time is on our side and I personally like Allen a lot so I'm optimistic.

Edited December 16, 2019 by BADOLBILZ

[warrior9]

On 12/13/2019 at 7:43 PM, Nanker said:

Can’t wait to play the birds in the AFC Championship Game in 2020.

If they're 1 seed and we're 5... It would more like than not be divisional round, no? Unless the 6 upsets the 4... Which means steelers/titans, etc would have to beat the chiefs. 

 

Edited December 16, 2019 by warrior9

[Doc]

5 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

You could argue that QB's are paid even more to put the ball where it's easy to catch and create YAC.    Josh was awful in that regard last night.   You aren't going to distance yourself from the Trubisky's in the court of public opinion if you play like that when you get night games where the talking heads actually watch you play.    That said.........Trent Dilfer won a SB in 2000 with 59% completion and 6.6 yards per attempt which are exactly the same as Allen this year.........and Peyton Manning won a SB in a season where he threw 9 TD and 17 interceptions.........I don't care what his stats are if he wins a SB.   

 

QB's are paid to get the ball to where their receivers have a chance to make a reception.  When you're making split second decisions and have to worry about 300# guys trying to kill you, you can't always throw perfect passes.  I've seen many QB's throw imperfect ones that their WR's make a play on, and I've also seen what happened to Josh last night. 

 

The fact is that Beasley has been a disappointment with his untimely drops this year and I doubt it gets better the further he passes the 30 year old mark.  Frankly I wish the Bills had gone after Adam Humphries considering he's younger and got paid the same.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

Beyond 2022? 

 

You'd hope to see big improvements next season and a lot better playmakers around him.... if not I wouldn't be shocked to see some serious competition for the starting job in 2021.

 

I'm just guessing at when his rookie deal is up. Why let go of a cheap QB? Especially one that has experience and can win games? Maybe it's 2021. At any rate does it matter if I said 2022 or 2021?

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

But it's ridiculous to think that the path not taken isn't a huge storyline to be followed for many years.    Mahomes and Jackson should have long careers and they are already putting up league MVP numbers so Allen has a lot of work to do to get in the conversation as worthy of passing on those two.    It won't be good for us if he ends up as the Ken O'Brien of that combined two classes but the nice thing is time is on our side and I personally like Allen a lot so I'm optimistic.

 

 

 

Mahomes will be Marino. 

 

Allen will be either Kelly or Elway.

 

Not really a good comp for Jackson.