Bills Offensive Production 2015-present

[Hapless Bills Fan]

So credit where due, in another thread @Maine-iac raised the point that it's fair game to ask McDermott about the Bills offensive production under his tenure.

 

I agree.

 

Here are some key offensive numbers from 2015 to present pulled from pro-football-reference and calculated per game.  Could be mistakes - LMK

Pass/rush % is calculated as pass attempts/(rush attempts + pass attempts).  I didn't include sacks: TT and Allen rush on plays that could be sacks, seemed best to stick to hard numbers.  Bottom row is 2019 league average.

 

 

What do you guys make of this?  Obviously, we aren't scoring enough, but why?

 

What I make of it is we've taken a big drop in rushing productivity and we haven't increased our passing productivity enough to compensate.  Also even though we're pretty much average on 1st downs, too many of our drives don't score.

 

PS click chart to embiggen

 

 

Edited November 14, 2019 by Hapless Bills Fan
Update data to include league average per drive

[thenorthremembers]

We arent scoring as much because the explosive play has completely evaporated from our game.   Aside from the one Singletary play this year, I cant remember a play where a player took a touch or pass and turned it up field for a big play or touchdown.   Add that to Josh's complete inability to hit a deep pass and you have a team where defenses know they can just keep the play in front of them. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

Just my opinion, but this is the first year since 2015 where our offensive talent increased over the offseason instead of decreasing. Very few QBs can operate at a high level without complimentary talent. Even fewer can in their first couple years in the league.

 

I also think the staff could benefit from going back and looking at what has worked for Josh this season and the end of last season and start doing those things with more frequency. 

Edited November 14, 2019 by BuffaloHokie13

[Gugny]

9 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

So credit where due, in another thread @Maine-iac raised the point that it's fair game to ask McDermott about the Bills offensive production under his tenure.

 

I agree.

 

Here are some key offensive numbers from 2015 to present pulled from pro-football-reference and calculated per game.  Could be mistakes - LMK

Pass/rush % is calculated as pass attempts/(rush attempts + pass attempts).  I didn't include sacks: TT and Allen rush on plays that could be sacks, seemed best to stick to hard numbers.  Bottom row is 2019 league average.

 

 

What do you guys make of this?  Obviously, we aren't scoring enough, but why?

 

What I make of it is we've taken a big drop in rushing productivity and we haven't increased our passing productivity enough to compensate.  Also even though we're pretty much average on 1st downs, too many of our drives don't score.

 

PS click chart to embiggen

 

 

 

A few things come to mind:

 

• It seems that our defense has far fewer takeaways this year and last year.
• A lot of the production in 2015 and 2016 was in garbage time.
  • Offensive production was down in 2017, when the team was actually winning games (and getting a lot of takeaways, as well as a lot of long-range field goals from Haushka).

[jrober38]

Greg Roman was a good OC who could conduct a great running game.

 

The guys we've had since haven't been as good. They haven't been able to overcome horrible QB play. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

A few things come to mind:

 

• It seems that our defense has far fewer takeaways this year and last year.
• A lot of the production in 2015 and 2016 was in garbage time.
  • Offensive production was down in 2017, when the team was actually winning games (and getting a lot of takeaways, as well as a lot of long-range field goals from Haushka).

 

Good point on takeaway/giveaway ratio

 

As may be known, I dislike the vague term "garbage time".  It's too often used retrospectively to describe a failed comeback attempt, if the comeback succeeds then it wasn't garbage.  I'm sure one could do some statistical sorting to determine a good definition - when the win probability is so low a comeback is improbable - but that's not what fans who use the term seem to do.

 

I couldn't find data on league average for starting a drive etc.  I guess I should look harder

 

 

[BuffaloHokie13]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I couldn't find data on league average for starting a drive etc.  I guess I should look harder

Maybe football outsiders. Their drive efficiency stats can be pretty helpful. 

[jrober38]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Good point on takeaway/giveaway ratio

 

As may be known, I dislike the vague term "garbage time".  It's too often used retrospectively to describe a failed comeback attempt, if the comeback succeeds then it wasn't garbage.  I'm sure one could do some statistical sorting to determine a good definition - when the win probability is so low a comeback is improbable - but that's not what fans who use the term seem to do.

 

I couldn't find data on league average for starting a drive etc.  I guess I should look harder

 

 

 

Voila!!

 

The Bills are 16th in the NFL in average drive starting position, with their average drive beginning on the 28.19 yard line.

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestats/2019

[Gugny]

Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Good point on takeaway/giveaway ratio

 

As may be known, I dislike the vague term "garbage time".  It's too often used retrospectively to describe a failed comeback attempt, if the comeback succeeds then it wasn't garbage.  I'm sure one could do some statistical sorting to determine a good definition - when the win probability is so low a comeback is improbable - but that's not what fans who use the term seem to do.

 

I couldn't find data on league average for starting a drive etc.  I guess I should look harder

 

 

 

Years ago I tried to do a deep dive into "garbage time," stats.  I recall that there was not much out there.  But I also think I remember that there was a site that did break down points scored in x quarter with a lead, behind by x points, etc.  I wish I had the time today to look for it, but unfortunately, I do not.

 

 

[BuffaloBaumer]

29 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

We arent scoring as much because the explosive play has completely evaporated from our game.   Aside from the one Singletary play this year, I cant remember a play where a player took a touch or pass and turned it up field for a big play or touchdown.   Add that to Josh's complete inability to hit a deep pass and you have a team where defenses know they can just keep the play in front of them. 

 

Bingo, it's a one dimensional offense. Defenses are just too good these days to score against when that is the case.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

13 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Voila!!

 

The Bills are 16th in the NFL in average drive starting position, with their average drive beginning on the 28.19 yard line.

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestats/2019

 

Thanks, good find.  I updated my chart.   I think the link one actually wants is

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestatsoff/2019

 

What does that mean?  We don't let other teams score a lot, so we  should get a fair number of punts/TOD - is that what that means?

[CincyBillsFan]

I would throw out that with the arrival of McD there was a concerted effort to rebuild a struggling D and this came at the expense of the O.  The idea behind hiring McD was that Buffalo wasn't making the playoffs because of a weak defense and that defenses win championships and so we hired a defensive guy.

 

Let's take a look at the offensive talent we fielded in 2015/2016 compared to 2018/2019 (I label 2017 as a transition year).   I would challenge anyone on this board to name one position group on offense where we are more talented today. 

 

The only one I can think of is at QB where I believe Allen is slightly better then Tyrod with additional room to improve and Barkley is a better back-up QB then we had back then.

 

The RB group from 2015/16 was clearly superior to the group we have now.

 

The offensive line in 2015/16 was clearly superior to the one we have now.

 

TE's & WR's were better in 2015/16 then we have now.

 

I won't even touch on coaching beyond noting that the current staff is defense focused and back then it was more offense focused. 

 

The OBVIOUS talent difference on offense now (2018/2019) versus then (2015/2016) is clear to see. 

 

This also explains to a great extent Allen's situation and why he isn't progressing even faster.

 

 

[jrober38]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Thanks, good find.  I updated my chart.   I think the link one actually wants is

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestatsoff/2019

 

What does that mean?  We don't let other teams score a lot, so we  should get a fair number of punts/TOD - is that what that means?

 

Our defense is elite (3rd in points per drive, 3rd in yards per drive, 3rd in drive success rate ie drives that don't allow a 1st down)

 

Our offense is bad (22nd in yards per drive, 23rd in points per drive, 19th in drive success rate)

 

That's what all those numbers show.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, jrober38 said:

 

Our defense is elite (3rd in points per drive, 3rd in yards per drive, 3rd in drive success rate ie drives that don't allow a 1st down)

 

Our offense is bad (22nd in yards per drive, 23rd in points per drive, 19th in drive success rate)

 

That's what all those numbers show.

 

Our offense is mediocre, we all agree.  The question is why - what is the gap, and can it be filled or fixed with the guys we have?

I think a more concerted effort to develop a run game might be the best shot.

 

[CincyBillsFan]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

Our defense is elite (3rd in points per drive, 3rd in yards per drive, 3rd in drive success rate ie drives that don't allow a 1st down)

 

Our offense is bad (22nd in yards per drive, 23rd in points per drive, 19th in drive success rate)

 

That's what all those numbers show.

 

I disagree that our Defense is elite it definitely IS NOT. 

 

*  Elite defenses do not let teams drive 82 yards for a game winning TD in the last 5 minutes of a game.

 

*  Elite defenses do not let teams come out of the locker room at half and bust off a 70 yard TD run on the 2nd play.  And then later in that same game allow a team to drive 84 yards for a TD in the 4th quarter, using up over 8 minutes, to clinch a game.

 

*  An elite D forces turnovers at critical points in the game.  Our D has forced ONLY ONE turnover in the opponents red zone.  ONE.  In fact by my count it has only forced TWO turnovers on the opponents side of the field (the ST got one against the Eagles).

 

The Bills D is good and the offense is poor.  But the offense has improved since last year where it ranked LAST or next to last in virtually every category.  If we were honest with ourselves, 6 - 3 is a pretty decent record given the talent on this team right now.

 

 

 

 

[BuffaloBaumer]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Our offense is mediocre, we all agree.  The question is why - what is the gap, and can it be filled or fixed with the guys we have?

I think a more concerted effort to develop a run game might be the best shot.

 

 

Throw every single cap dollar and draft pick towards the offense line and receivers... and a DE. The defense will probably take a small step back next year but give Allen every possible resource imaginable and pray that he proves to be the guy by end of next year. If he indeed does not take a MAJOR step forward, then you have the insta offense ready to roll for the next QB.

[jrober38]

Just now, CincyBillsFan said:

 

I disagree that our Defense is elite it definitely IS NOT. 

 

*  Elite defenses do not let teams drive 82 yards for a game winning TD in the last 5 minutes of a game.

 

*  Elite defenses do not let teams come out of the locker room at half and bust off a 70 yard TD run on the 2nd play.  And then later in that same game allow a team to drive 84 yards for a TD in the 4th quarter, using up over 8 minutes, to clinch a game.

 

*  An elite D forces turnovers at critical points in the game.  Our D has forced ONLY ONE turnover in the opponents red zone.  ONE.  In fact by my count it has only forced TWO turnovers on the opponents side of the field (the ST got one against the Eagles).

 

The Bills D is good and the offense is poor.  But the offense has improved since last year where it ranked LAST or next to last in virtually every category.  If we were honest with ourselves, 6 - 3 is a pretty decent record given the talent on this team right now.

 

Fair enough. Our defense is very good. New England is being talked about as best ever and the Ravens just put 37 points up on them. 

 

If we're being honest, 6-3 is a decent record given who we've played. 

 

Being brutally honest, we're 6-3 not because this team is good, but because we've played pretty much all of the NFL's horrible teams. 

 

If we switched our schedule with Cleveland's, we'd probably also be 3-6 instead of 6-3. 

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Our offense is mediocre, we all agree.  The question is why - what is the gap, and can it be filled or fixed with the guys we have?

I think a more concerted effort to develop a run game might be the best shot.

 

 

I agree. Run the ball more and put the ball in Allen's hands less.

 

We need to compensate for having such a poor QB.

[CincyBillsFan]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

 

Throw every single cap dollar and draft pick towards the offense line and receivers... and a DE. The defense will probably take a small step back next year but give Allen every possible resource imaginable and pray that he proves to be the guy by end of next year. If he indeed does not take a MAJOR step forward, then you have the insta offense ready to roll for the next QB.

 

This is probably the best way for the Bill's to approach next year. 

 

*  We must get an ACCURATE read on Allen and that isn't happening with the current talent level on offense. 

 

*  And if we're going to make and win playoff games we need to score more then 20 points a game on a reliable basis.  And the current offensive talent isn't going to do that no matter who is in there at QB.

 

The Bills are close, closer then we think.  I believe Allen is the guy and focusing on the O will not result in much of a decline on D.  It will however give a big boost to the O.  With a better offense and a solid defense the Bills are a 12 win team in the NFL.

 

 

[Maine-iac]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

So credit where due, in another thread @Maine-iac raised the point that it's fair game to ask McDermott about the Bills offensive production under his tenure.

 

I agree.

 

Here are some key offensive numbers from 2015 to present pulled from pro-football-reference and calculated per game.  Could be mistakes - LMK

Pass/rush % is calculated as pass attempts/(rush attempts + pass attempts).  I didn't include sacks: TT and Allen rush on plays that could be sacks, seemed best to stick to hard numbers.  Bottom row is 2019 league average.

 

 

What do you guys make of this?  Obviously, we aren't scoring enough, but why?

 

What I make of it is we've taken a big drop in rushing productivity and we haven't increased our passing productivity enough to compensate.  Also even though we're pretty much average on 1st downs, too many of our drives don't score.

 

PS click chart to embiggen

 

 

I would venture to say that the chart shows that at it's best the offense under Taylor was designed and executed to maximize big plays.  Look at all the big TD's.  I think 5 of his first 7 TD passes here in Buffalo were 20 plus yard throws.  Plenty of big runs for TD's in that offense also.  That is why the scoring was higher, big plays.  That is the difference between Roman (plus execution) vs Daboll (plus execution).  I think Daboll is light years better than Dennison but under his best execution his offense will still score less than Roman's.  That said I still think Daboll can do a lot of things well enough that if they just get the execution better we can get the scoring up to a 22 or 23 ppg average and that and a good defense will keep you competitive.  Like others have said I think if the defense was forcing more turnovers it wouldn't hurt.  If Allen could find his deep ball and make them pay it wouldn't hurt and without McCoy we have played most of the season with Gore who has been steady but not really a home run back.  Singletary should help in that dept. also.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

I would venture to say that the chart shows that at it's best the offense under Taylor was designed and executed to maximize big plays.  Look at all the big TD's.  I think 5 of his first 7 TD passes here in Buffalo were 20 plus yard throws.  Plenty of big runs for TD's in that offense also.  That is why the scoring was higher, big plays.  That is the difference between Roman (plus execution) vs Daboll (plus execution).  I think Daboll is light years better than Dennison but under his best execution his offense will still score less than Roman's.  That said I still think Daboll can do a lot of things well enough that if they just get the execution better we can get the scoring up to a 22 or 23 ppg average and that and a good defense will keep you competitive.  Like others have said I think if the defense was forcing more turnovers it wouldn't hurt.  If Allen could find his deep ball and make them pay it wouldn't hurt and without McCoy we have played most of the season with Gore who has been steady but not really a home run back.  Singletary should help in that dept. also.

 

Good post, lots of stuff to think about.

Certainly the lack of "chunk plays" and the big play TDs you mention is something the local media is honing in on.

 

You're correct the D is #20 in forcing turnovers.

 

I don't think we can force Allen's development.  He gets it when he gets it (or he doesn't).  You can't force chunk pass plays, it's how you get more giveaways.   Knox can break plays, but he drops almost 1 in 5 passes sent to him.   That being the case, it seems as though Singletary may be the best hope we have to break lose some chunk plays. 

 

It seems as though after the GB game last year, Daboll tried some fairly clever use of heavy sets to support either pass or run plays and mask the deficiencies of the OL.  In theory we should be able to do better at that this year, but I haven't been doing the same "deep dive" into the run blocking this year so not sure what's been tried.

 

 

[Maine-iac]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Good post, lots of stuff to think about.

Certainly the lack of "chunk plays" and the big play TDs you mention is something the local media is honing in on.

 

You're correct the D is #20 in forcing turnovers.

 

I don't think we can force Allen's development.  He gets it when he gets it (or he doesn't).  You can't force chunk pass plays, it's how you get more giveaways.   Knox can break plays, but he drops almost 1 in 5 passes sent to him.   That being the case, it seems as though Singletary may be the best hope we have to break lose some chunk plays. 

 

It seems as though after the GB game last year, Daboll tried some fairly clever use of heavy sets to support either pass or run plays and mask the deficiencies of the OL.  In theory we should be able to do better at that this year, but I haven't been doing the same "deep dive" into the run blocking this year so not sure what's been tried.

 

 

I honestly think what we need more than anything is Foster to take the top off the defense a few times.  Brown certainly has the speed to do it also but he gets more attention and is needed to do more route running in general.  Foster blows up for a 40 or 50 yard TD a couple games in a row then there's more room for the TE's to work and running the ball gets easier.  I think the Pats game made them gun shy in the passing game.  Truth be told I loved the fact that Josh just kept throwing it even with the turnovers.  From what I've seen from him if he had played the whole game it wouldn't have been unthinkable for him to have his worst game as a pro and still found a way to win it.  Just watch the MNF game against us where Romo threw 5 picks and still beat us.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Our offense is mediocre, we all agree.  The question is why - what is the gap, and can it be filled or fixed with the guys we have?

I think a more concerted effort to develop a run game might be the best shot.

 

 

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

I agree. Run the ball more and put the ball in Allen's hands less.

We need to compensate for having such a poor QB.

 

Just to be clear, that last sentence is not what I was suggesting, at all.

 

There are a number of potential reasons behind our mediocre overall defensive output. 

Some of them should be laid at the feet of the QB, some of them should not.

 

For those that should, we drafted a known project QB who knew less about playing against strong competition than most.  He's adjusting to the kind of throws he needs to make in the NFL and learning to read the far more complex NFL D's.   It's almost as if when you draft a project QB, you need to expect him to take time or something.

2 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

I honestly think what we need more than anything is Foster to take the top off the defense a few times.  Brown certainly has the speed to do it also but he gets more attention and is needed to do more route running in general.  Foster blows up for a 40 or 50 yard TD a couple games in a row then there's more room for the TE's to work and running the ball gets easier.  I think the Pats game made them gun shy in the passing game.  Truth be told I loved the fact that Josh just kept throwing it even with the turnovers.  From what I've seen from him if he had played the whole game it wouldn't have been unthinkable for him to have his worst game as a pro and still found a way to win it.  Just watch the MNF game against us where Romo threw 5 picks and still beat us.

 

Absolutely taking the top off the defense a few times would help.  The question is why it isn't happening, and whether it's something that can be changed to happen in season.  I think that was the plan in the Cleveland game and it didn't work quite well enough.

 

On the other hand, I think we should be able to manage running against a stacked box if we scheme it properly - I guess my question to Daboll would be "if the deeper pass game doesn't get clicking and they stack the box, what's the plan?"

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, Gugny said:

 

Years ago I tried to do a deep dive into "garbage time," stats.  I recall that there was not much out there.  But I also think I remember that there was a site that did break down points scored in x quarter with a lead, behind by x points, etc.  I wish I had the time today to look for it, but unfortunately, I do not.

 

 

this help?

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2019_splits.htm

[Hapless Bills Fan]

13 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

this help?

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2019_splits.htm

 

No, not at all - I don't see anything on completion % by air distance there

And if there were, what I'm looking for is to compare completion % by air distance for different QBs.

[Jobot]

I just love when people find one statistic and think they've discovered Atlantis.. A reporter did this earlier this week when asking McDermott specifically about Allen's and Tyrod's recent 20games as a Bill.

 

What about garbage time points that we've scored while getting blown out??? There are hundreds of reason to justify why they aren't scoring as much.  Pick whichever one you like.

[Boatdrinks]

Lack of elite talent/ matchups at WR/ TE 

Sloppy execution/ penalties

poor offensive scheme/ strange playcalls for down / distance

mediocre QB play at times

[jrober38]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

Just to be clear, that last sentence is not what I was suggesting, at all.

 

There are a number of potential reasons behind our mediocre overall defensive output. 

Some of them should be laid at the feet of the QB, some of them should not.

 

For those that should, we drafted a known project QB who knew less about playing against strong competition than most.  He's adjusting to the kind of throws he needs to make in the NFL and learning to read the far more complex NFL D's.   It's almost as if when you draft a project QB, you need to expect him to take time or something.

 

I completely disagree with the bolded.

 

If anything college QBs who come from below average programs should have an advantage over guys who played with really good supporting casts, because they should already be used to throwing at receivers who are tightly covered.

 

I've suggested for years that this is a reason why QBs from places like USC, Alabama, Oklahoma, etc never work out in the NFL, because they're throwing to wide open uber talented receivers in college who are being covered by guys who have no hope of ever sniffing the NFL.

 

This is actually my biggest concern with Trevor Lawrence. He has arguably two top 10 WRs as his top 2 pass catchers, a good line and an elite running game, and he still puts too many passes into harms way.

 

How's it going to get better once he's throwing at receivers who can't just out jump everyone for the ball in the NFL like they did in college? 

 

A lot of good NFL QBs came from college programs where they didn't have a ton of NFL talent around them, and they just made it work. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

I completely disagree with the bolded.

 

If anything college QBs who come from below average programs should have an advantage over guys who played with really good supporting casts, because they should already be used to throwing at receivers who are tightly covered.

 

I assume you have some logic here, but I can't see it.  Both sides of the ball tend to be weaker, so why would you assume receivers are more tightly covered?

 

At any event, it's a point that many players, coaches, and evaluators have made, but You do You, and we'll disagree, that's chill.

 

7 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

A lot of good NFL QBs came from college programs where they didn't have a ton of NFL talent around them, and they just made it work. 

 

Examples?

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

No, not at all - I don't see anything on completion % by air distance there

And if there were, what I'm looking for is to compare completion % by air distance for different QBs.

 

That's not what I looked for.  Gugny talked about "break down points scored in x quarter with a lead, behind by x points, etc."

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

No, not at all - I don't see anything on completion % by air distance there

And if there were, what I'm looking for is to compare completion % by air distance for different QBs.

 

Ill keep looking but … passer rating by areas of field...

 

 

[Scott7975]

You might like this site Hapless.... http://airyards.com/qb.html

[Jrb1979]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

For those that should, we drafted a known project QB who knew less about playing against strong competition than most.  He's adjusting to the kind of throws he needs to make in the NFL and learning to read the far more complex NFL D's.   It's almost as if when you draft a project QB, you need to expect him to take time or something.

 

This isn't the Rockpile days where you have years to learn the game. In today's NFL you need to win now. It doesn't take multiple years to rebuild. That's why I never understood why they drafted a project QB. Big Hands and a Rocket arm means nothing these days. 

[BuffaloButt]

On 11/14/2019 at 11:04 AM, Scott7975 said:

 

That's not what I looked for.  Gugny talked about "break down points scored in x quarter with a lead, behind by x points, etc."

 

Ill keep looking but … passer rating by areas of field...

 

 

Can you find his 2019 stats to compare to last years numbers listed here?

[Scott7975]

5 hours ago, BuffaloButt said:

Can you find his 2019 stats to compare to last years numbers listed here?

 

I don't think they do those until the end of the season but I will look.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 11/14/2019 at 1:04 PM, Scott7975 said:

 

That's not what I looked for.  Gugny talked about "break down points scored in x quarter with a lead, behind by x points, etc."

 

Ill keep looking but … passer rating by areas of field...

 

 

 

That's exactly what I'm looking for, but  you realize that's from the 2018 season, yes?  Seems Josh has worked quite hard on those red and yellow areas and taken significant steps.

 

It seems as though Next gen stats has gone to these game by game "dot" representations for this year.  One could "roll one's own" by counting white and green dots but Man.  Here's the stuff I'm talking about.https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/josh-allen/ALL529264/season  [Anyone who wants to go off about Josh's lack of deep completions is invited to first compare to 3 other QB not named Brees, Rodgers, or Mahomes]

 

1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I don't think they do those until the end of the season but I will look.

 

They did them during the season last year, I think.  I believe someone (PFF?) who first came up with that style objected.  I think PFF has them but you need to be a subscriber.

[SoTier]

On 11/14/2019 at 10:25 AM, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Just my opinion, but this is the first year since 2015 where our offensive talent increased over the offseason instead of decreasing. Very few QBs can operate at a high level without complimentary talent. Even fewer can in their first couple years in the league.

 

I also think the staff could benefit from going back and looking at what has worked for Josh this season and the end of last season and start doing those things with more frequency. 

 

The offensive talent that's been added in 2019 is not even close to the offensive talent that was on the team in 2016, and only a single instance of the loss of talent was due injury (Eric Wood).  Essentially, McDermott and Beane shed decent/good/outstanding NFL offensive talent and replaced it with non-NFL caliber/mediocre/decent talent.   

 

IMO, the lack of talent combined with the emphasis on passing rather than rushing, spells doom for Josh Allen.  It makes no sense to try to run a passing offense with a young, raw QB who needs to improve his passing fundamentals as well as learn the nuances of the pro game.  He's not good enough at this point to make this kind of offense work, especially with the limited talent around him.  At the very least he needs a WR1 which he doesn't have.

 

On 11/14/2019 at 10:37 AM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Good point on takeaway/giveaway ratio

 

As may be known, I dislike the vague term "garbage time".  It's too often used retrospectively to describe a failed comeback attempt, if the comeback succeeds then it wasn't garbage.  I'm sure one could do some statistical sorting to determine a good definition - when the win probability is so low a comeback is improbable - but that's not what fans who use the term seem to do.

 

I couldn't find data on league average for starting a drive etc.  I guess I should look harder

 

 

 

I agree about the definition of "garbage time".   It's a very convenient way to diss QBs that posters don't like.  In today's NFL, teams can be down 3 or 4 scores going into the 4th quarter and still win games.  It happens almost every week, and sometimes spectacularly like in the Patriots-Falcons Super Bowl.  

 

On 11/14/2019 at 11:02 AM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Our offense is mediocre, we all agree.  The question is why - what is the gap, and can it be filled or fixed with the guys we have?

I think a more concerted effort to develop a run game might be the best shot.

 

 

When the Bills released Shady to roll with Singletary, Gore, and Yeldon, I said that the Bills running game would go down the toilet and result in offensive struggles, and I was attacked for being a "negative Nancy" and a "hater".   As it turned out, the Bills "braintrust" didn't want to pay McCoy because they planned on emphasizing passing over rushing ... but not smart enough to realize/recognize how invaluable Shady can be in a passing offense as he's perfectly capable of turning a 4 yard check down or a screen pass into a big gainer.  None of the RBs currently on the roster seem capable of doing that.

 

On 11/14/2019 at 2:45 PM, Jrb1979 said:

This isn't the Rockpile days where you have years to learn the game. In today's NFL you need to win now. It doesn't take multiple years to rebuild. That's why I never understood why they drafted a project QB. Big Hands and a Rocket arm means nothing these days. 

 

They spent a fortune in draft capital and talent in order to draft a project QB because they are clueless about offense.  McDermott/Beane fans become indignant when I write that but here's why I say that ...

• Allen has no passing assets except his "Rocket arm".  He's not accurate.  He doesn't have good mechanics.  That he can run is a bonus but he's not a RB; he needs to be able to pass and pass well.  He was just not a good prospect.
• Allen would have benefited from sitting for a year like Mahomes, but because McDermott picked Peterman and sent McCarron packing, he was thrown to the wolves more early on.
• The Bills did not bother to hire a competent, experienced QB coach to actually teach Allen the fundamentals until this season.  Nothing says offensive incompetence than this.
• The Bills put Allen out on the field behind  a non NFL caliber OL and without a functional receiving corps in 2017, and while both units have been improved this season they are no where near being more than mediocre.
• The Bills didn't draft a top WR nor did they trade for a WR1 even though several were available both before or during the season.  Moreover, they didn't put in a claim on Josh Gordon who was good enough for the much more talented Seahawks to grab.
• They released Shady McCoy, the one player on the preseason roster who could be considered a "game changer", to keep Gore, Yeldon, and Singletary. 

My guess is that drafting Allen was done because the Bills decided that they were going to draft a QB in 2018, and he was the one they settled on even if he wasn't a particularly outstanding prospect.  It's what the McDermott/Beane regime does.  They decide they need a certain position filled, so they go out and fill that position, even if they have to trade up to take a lesser prospect who's a project.  Jones, Dawkins, Allen, Edmunds, and Ford all seem to fill that model.

Edited November 17, 2019 by SoTier

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That's exactly what I'm looking for, but  you realize that's from the 2018 season, yes?  Seems Josh has worked quite hard on those red and yellow areas and taken significant steps.

 

It seems as though Next gen stats has gone to these game by game "dot" representations for this year.  One could "roll one's own" by counting white and green dots but Man.  Here's the stuff I'm talking about.https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/josh-allen/ALL529264/season  [Anyone who wants to go off about Josh's lack of deep completions is invited to first compare to 3 other QB not named Brees, Rodgers, or Mahomes]

 

 

They did them during the season last year, I think.  I believe someone (PFF?) who first came up with that style objected.  I think PFF has them but you need to be a subscriber.

Yes, I knew is was for 2018.  I am just trying to help you guys find stats you want to look at.  If it isn't available to me then I can't give it to you. Yes, I believe PFF does do them if you subscribe.  That kind of statistical analysis is not important enough for me to spend money on.  Next gen had previously done this during the season on occasion but never for every QB.  I have not seen any done this season yet.  

 

Next gen has always done the dot ones as well.  It isn't something they switched to.  You could look at the pass charts and make the chart yourself if you want to spend that kind of time.  I currently do not.  Maybe at some point.

Edited November 17, 2019 by Scott7975

[BuffaloHokie13]

45 minutes ago, SoTier said:

The offensive talent that's been added in 2019 is not even close to the offensive talent that was on the team in 2016, and only a single instance of the loss of talent was due injury (Eric Wood). 

Completely disagree here. Our current OL is better overall than any OL 2015-2017. Yes. Wood and incognito were good, but Glenn was inconsistent, miller was bad, mills was bad, kujo was bad, groy was okayish as a replacement. They were a good run blocking unit that was bad in pass pro.

 

At WR, woods started 10 games, Goodwin started 9, sammy started 8, justin hunter started 5, walt powell started 2, Brandon tate started 1, greg Salas started 1, and percy Harvin started 1. That's our 2016 WRs. 2 were available for more than half the season... right now we aren't passing well, but despite that brown has 50+ yards in every game and is pacing for some records. Beasley has come on more lately too, and I'd rather have Kroft and knox than can't practice clay.

 

McCoy and gillislee were good in Roman's system, but I'm not sure they're so far ahead of gore, Singletary, and yeldon.

 

And finally, my statement was that this is the first time since 2015 that the talent on offense improved over the offseason. Compare 2015 to 2016. Compare 16 to 17. Compare 17 to 18. It got worse every time. Now compare 18 to 19.