Bills Offensive Production 2015-present

[Hapless Bills Fan]

So credit where due, in another thread @Maine-iac raised the point that it's fair game to ask McDermott about the Bills offensive production under his tenure.

 

I agree.

 

Here are some key offensive numbers from 2015 to present pulled from pro-football-reference and calculated per game.  Could be mistakes - LMK

Pass/rush % is calculated as pass attempts/(rush attempts + pass attempts).  I didn't include sacks: TT and Allen rush on plays that could be sacks, seemed best to stick to hard numbers.  Bottom row is 2019 league average.

 

 

What do you guys make of this?  Obviously, we aren't scoring enough, but why?

 

What I make of it is we've taken a big drop in rushing productivity and we haven't increased our passing productivity enough to compensate.  Also even though we're pretty much average on 1st downs, too many of our drives don't score.

 

PS click chart to embiggen

 

 

Edited November 14, 2019 by Hapless Bills Fan
Update data to include league average per drive

[thenorthremembers]

We arent scoring as much because the explosive play has completely evaporated from our game.   Aside from the one Singletary play this year, I cant remember a play where a player took a touch or pass and turned it up field for a big play or touchdown.   Add that to Josh's complete inability to hit a deep pass and you have a team where defenses know they can just keep the play in front of them. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

Just my opinion, but this is the first year since 2015 where our offensive talent increased over the offseason instead of decreasing. Very few QBs can operate at a high level without complimentary talent. Even fewer can in their first couple years in the league.

 

I also think the staff could benefit from going back and looking at what has worked for Josh this season and the end of last season and start doing those things with more frequency. 

Edited November 14, 2019 by BuffaloHokie13

[Gugny]

9 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

So credit where due, in another thread @Maine-iac raised the point that it's fair game to ask McDermott about the Bills offensive production under his tenure.

 

I agree.

 

Here are some key offensive numbers from 2015 to present pulled from pro-football-reference and calculated per game.  Could be mistakes - LMK

Pass/rush % is calculated as pass attempts/(rush attempts + pass attempts).  I didn't include sacks: TT and Allen rush on plays that could be sacks, seemed best to stick to hard numbers.  Bottom row is 2019 league average.

 

 

What do you guys make of this?  Obviously, we aren't scoring enough, but why?

 

What I make of it is we've taken a big drop in rushing productivity and we haven't increased our passing productivity enough to compensate.  Also even though we're pretty much average on 1st downs, too many of our drives don't score.

 

PS click chart to embiggen

 

 

 

A few things come to mind:

 

• It seems that our defense has far fewer takeaways this year and last year.
• A lot of the production in 2015 and 2016 was in garbage time.
  • Offensive production was down in 2017, when the team was actually winning games (and getting a lot of takeaways, as well as a lot of long-range field goals from Haushka).

[jrober38]

Greg Roman was a good OC who could conduct a great running game.

 

The guys we've had since haven't been as good. They haven't been able to overcome horrible QB play. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

A few things come to mind:

 

• It seems that our defense has far fewer takeaways this year and last year.
• A lot of the production in 2015 and 2016 was in garbage time.
  • Offensive production was down in 2017, when the team was actually winning games (and getting a lot of takeaways, as well as a lot of long-range field goals from Haushka).

 

Good point on takeaway/giveaway ratio

 

As may be known, I dislike the vague term "garbage time".  It's too often used retrospectively to describe a failed comeback attempt, if the comeback succeeds then it wasn't garbage.  I'm sure one could do some statistical sorting to determine a good definition - when the win probability is so low a comeback is improbable - but that's not what fans who use the term seem to do.

 

I couldn't find data on league average for starting a drive etc.  I guess I should look harder

 

 

[BuffaloHokie13]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I couldn't find data on league average for starting a drive etc.  I guess I should look harder

Maybe football outsiders. Their drive efficiency stats can be pretty helpful. 

[jrober38]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Good point on takeaway/giveaway ratio

 

As may be known, I dislike the vague term "garbage time".  It's too often used retrospectively to describe a failed comeback attempt, if the comeback succeeds then it wasn't garbage.  I'm sure one could do some statistical sorting to determine a good definition - when the win probability is so low a comeback is improbable - but that's not what fans who use the term seem to do.

 

I couldn't find data on league average for starting a drive etc.  I guess I should look harder

 

 

 

Voila!!

 

The Bills are 16th in the NFL in average drive starting position, with their average drive beginning on the 28.19 yard line.

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestats/2019

[Gugny]

Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Good point on takeaway/giveaway ratio

 

As may be known, I dislike the vague term "garbage time".  It's too often used retrospectively to describe a failed comeback attempt, if the comeback succeeds then it wasn't garbage.  I'm sure one could do some statistical sorting to determine a good definition - when the win probability is so low a comeback is improbable - but that's not what fans who use the term seem to do.

 

I couldn't find data on league average for starting a drive etc.  I guess I should look harder

 

 

 

Years ago I tried to do a deep dive into "garbage time," stats.  I recall that there was not much out there.  But I also think I remember that there was a site that did break down points scored in x quarter with a lead, behind by x points, etc.  I wish I had the time today to look for it, but unfortunately, I do not.

 

 

[BuffaloBaumer]

29 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

We arent scoring as much because the explosive play has completely evaporated from our game.   Aside from the one Singletary play this year, I cant remember a play where a player took a touch or pass and turned it up field for a big play or touchdown.   Add that to Josh's complete inability to hit a deep pass and you have a team where defenses know they can just keep the play in front of them. 

 

Bingo, it's a one dimensional offense. Defenses are just too good these days to score against when that is the case.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

13 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Voila!!

 

The Bills are 16th in the NFL in average drive starting position, with their average drive beginning on the 28.19 yard line.

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestats/2019

 

Thanks, good find.  I updated my chart.   I think the link one actually wants is

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestatsoff/2019

 

What does that mean?  We don't let other teams score a lot, so we  should get a fair number of punts/TOD - is that what that means?

[CincyBillsFan]

I would throw out that with the arrival of McD there was a concerted effort to rebuild a struggling D and this came at the expense of the O.  The idea behind hiring McD was that Buffalo wasn't making the playoffs because of a weak defense and that defenses win championships and so we hired a defensive guy.

 

Let's take a look at the offensive talent we fielded in 2015/2016 compared to 2018/2019 (I label 2017 as a transition year).   I would challenge anyone on this board to name one position group on offense where we are more talented today. 

 

The only one I can think of is at QB where I believe Allen is slightly better then Tyrod with additional room to improve and Barkley is a better back-up QB then we had back then.

 

The RB group from 2015/16 was clearly superior to the group we have now.

 

The offensive line in 2015/16 was clearly superior to the one we have now.

 

TE's & WR's were better in 2015/16 then we have now.

 

I won't even touch on coaching beyond noting that the current staff is defense focused and back then it was more offense focused. 

 

The OBVIOUS talent difference on offense now (2018/2019) versus then (2015/2016) is clear to see. 

 

This also explains to a great extent Allen's situation and why he isn't progressing even faster.

 

 

[jrober38]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Thanks, good find.  I updated my chart.   I think the link one actually wants is

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestatsoff/2019

 

What does that mean?  We don't let other teams score a lot, so we  should get a fair number of punts/TOD - is that what that means?

 

Our defense is elite (3rd in points per drive, 3rd in yards per drive, 3rd in drive success rate ie drives that don't allow a 1st down)

 

Our offense is bad (22nd in yards per drive, 23rd in points per drive, 19th in drive success rate)

 

That's what all those numbers show.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, jrober38 said:

 

Our defense is elite (3rd in points per drive, 3rd in yards per drive, 3rd in drive success rate ie drives that don't allow a 1st down)

 

Our offense is bad (22nd in yards per drive, 23rd in points per drive, 19th in drive success rate)

 

That's what all those numbers show.

 

Our offense is mediocre, we all agree.  The question is why - what is the gap, and can it be filled or fixed with the guys we have?

I think a more concerted effort to develop a run game might be the best shot.

 

[CincyBillsFan]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

Our defense is elite (3rd in points per drive, 3rd in yards per drive, 3rd in drive success rate ie drives that don't allow a 1st down)

 

Our offense is bad (22nd in yards per drive, 23rd in points per drive, 19th in drive success rate)

 

That's what all those numbers show.

 

I disagree that our Defense is elite it definitely IS NOT. 

 

*  Elite defenses do not let teams drive 82 yards for a game winning TD in the last 5 minutes of a game.

 

*  Elite defenses do not let teams come out of the locker room at half and bust off a 70 yard TD run on the 2nd play.  And then later in that same game allow a team to drive 84 yards for a TD in the 4th quarter, using up over 8 minutes, to clinch a game.

 

*  An elite D forces turnovers at critical points in the game.  Our D has forced ONLY ONE turnover in the opponents red zone.  ONE.  In fact by my count it has only forced TWO turnovers on the opponents side of the field (the ST got one against the Eagles).

 

The Bills D is good and the offense is poor.  But the offense has improved since last year where it ranked LAST or next to last in virtually every category.  If we were honest with ourselves, 6 - 3 is a pretty decent record given the talent on this team right now.

 

 

 

 

[BuffaloBaumer]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Our offense is mediocre, we all agree.  The question is why - what is the gap, and can it be filled or fixed with the guys we have?

I think a more concerted effort to develop a run game might be the best shot.

 

 

Throw every single cap dollar and draft pick towards the offense line and receivers... and a DE. The defense will probably take a small step back next year but give Allen every possible resource imaginable and pray that he proves to be the guy by end of next year. If he indeed does not take a MAJOR step forward, then you have the insta offense ready to roll for the next QB.

[jrober38]

Just now, CincyBillsFan said:

 

I disagree that our Defense is elite it definitely IS NOT. 

 

*  Elite defenses do not let teams drive 82 yards for a game winning TD in the last 5 minutes of a game.

 

*  Elite defenses do not let teams come out of the locker room at half and bust off a 70 yard TD run on the 2nd play.  And then later in that same game allow a team to drive 84 yards for a TD in the 4th quarter, using up over 8 minutes, to clinch a game.

 

*  An elite D forces turnovers at critical points in the game.  Our D has forced ONLY ONE turnover in the opponents red zone.  ONE.  In fact by my count it has only forced TWO turnovers on the opponents side of the field (the ST got one against the Eagles).

 

The Bills D is good and the offense is poor.  But the offense has improved since last year where it ranked LAST or next to last in virtually every category.  If we were honest with ourselves, 6 - 3 is a pretty decent record given the talent on this team right now.

 

Fair enough. Our defense is very good. New England is being talked about as best ever and the Ravens just put 37 points up on them. 

 

If we're being honest, 6-3 is a decent record given who we've played. 

 

Being brutally honest, we're 6-3 not because this team is good, but because we've played pretty much all of the NFL's horrible teams. 

 

If we switched our schedule with Cleveland's, we'd probably also be 3-6 instead of 6-3. 

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Our offense is mediocre, we all agree.  The question is why - what is the gap, and can it be filled or fixed with the guys we have?

I think a more concerted effort to develop a run game might be the best shot.

 

 

I agree. Run the ball more and put the ball in Allen's hands less.

 

We need to compensate for having such a poor QB.

[CincyBillsFan]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

 

Throw every single cap dollar and draft pick towards the offense line and receivers... and a DE. The defense will probably take a small step back next year but give Allen every possible resource imaginable and pray that he proves to be the guy by end of next year. If he indeed does not take a MAJOR step forward, then you have the insta offense ready to roll for the next QB.

 

This is probably the best way for the Bill's to approach next year. 

 

*  We must get an ACCURATE read on Allen and that isn't happening with the current talent level on offense. 

 

*  And if we're going to make and win playoff games we need to score more then 20 points a game on a reliable basis.  And the current offensive talent isn't going to do that no matter who is in there at QB.

 

The Bills are close, closer then we think.  I believe Allen is the guy and focusing on the O will not result in much of a decline on D.  It will however give a big boost to the O.  With a better offense and a solid defense the Bills are a 12 win team in the NFL.

 

 

[Maine-iac]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

So credit where due, in another thread @Maine-iac raised the point that it's fair game to ask McDermott about the Bills offensive production under his tenure.

 

I agree.

 

Here are some key offensive numbers from 2015 to present pulled from pro-football-reference and calculated per game.  Could be mistakes - LMK

Pass/rush % is calculated as pass attempts/(rush attempts + pass attempts).  I didn't include sacks: TT and Allen rush on plays that could be sacks, seemed best to stick to hard numbers.  Bottom row is 2019 league average.

 

 

What do you guys make of this?  Obviously, we aren't scoring enough, but why?

 

What I make of it is we've taken a big drop in rushing productivity and we haven't increased our passing productivity enough to compensate.  Also even though we're pretty much average on 1st downs, too many of our drives don't score.

 

PS click chart to embiggen

 

 

I would venture to say that the chart shows that at it's best the offense under Taylor was designed and executed to maximize big plays.  Look at all the big TD's.  I think 5 of his first 7 TD passes here in Buffalo were 20 plus yard throws.  Plenty of big runs for TD's in that offense also.  That is why the scoring was higher, big plays.  That is the difference between Roman (plus execution) vs Daboll (plus execution).  I think Daboll is light years better than Dennison but under his best execution his offense will still score less than Roman's.  That said I still think Daboll can do a lot of things well enough that if they just get the execution better we can get the scoring up to a 22 or 23 ppg average and that and a good defense will keep you competitive.  Like others have said I think if the defense was forcing more turnovers it wouldn't hurt.  If Allen could find his deep ball and make them pay it wouldn't hurt and without McCoy we have played most of the season with Gore who has been steady but not really a home run back.  Singletary should help in that dept. also.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

I would venture to say that the chart shows that at it's best the offense under Taylor was designed and executed to maximize big plays.  Look at all the big TD's.  I think 5 of his first 7 TD passes here in Buffalo were 20 plus yard throws.  Plenty of big runs for TD's in that offense also.  That is why the scoring was higher, big plays.  That is the difference between Roman (plus execution) vs Daboll (plus execution).  I think Daboll is light years better than Dennison but under his best execution his offense will still score less than Roman's.  That said I still think Daboll can do a lot of things well enough that if they just get the execution better we can get the scoring up to a 22 or 23 ppg average and that and a good defense will keep you competitive.  Like others have said I think if the defense was forcing more turnovers it wouldn't hurt.  If Allen could find his deep ball and make them pay it wouldn't hurt and without McCoy we have played most of the season with Gore who has been steady but not really a home run back.  Singletary should help in that dept. also.

 

Good post, lots of stuff to think about.

Certainly the lack of "chunk plays" and the big play TDs you mention is something the local media is honing in on.

 

You're correct the D is #20 in forcing turnovers.

 

I don't think we can force Allen's development.  He gets it when he gets it (or he doesn't).  You can't force chunk pass plays, it's how you get more giveaways.   Knox can break plays, but he drops almost 1 in 5 passes sent to him.   That being the case, it seems as though Singletary may be the best hope we have to break lose some chunk plays. 

 

It seems as though after the GB game last year, Daboll tried some fairly clever use of heavy sets to support either pass or run plays and mask the deficiencies of the OL.  In theory we should be able to do better at that this year, but I haven't been doing the same "deep dive" into the run blocking this year so not sure what's been tried.