A bit of future scouting - Browns @ Broncos

[GunnerBill]

Morning folks. I spent some time last night watching and re-watching the Browns and Broncos game from Sunday given that they are two of the Bills next three opponents. Here are some interesting pointers to areas where I think the Bills might want to pay special attention in those matchups.

 

Browns

Make Mayfield hold the football. Baker Mayfield has always been at his best in a rhythm passing offense. When he can get the ball out of his hands quickly to his first read he is a more decisive and accurate passer. If you can take his first read away or get early pressure that takes eyes away from looking down the field and makes them look at the rush then he holds the ball and it is when he holds the ball that bad things tend to happen. He makes poor decisions, takes bad sacks and when he does throw it his accuracy drops off. The Bills early in the season were getting good push early in the middle of the pocket and changing coverages just before the snap on defense. They had to simplify some of that last week in an effort to shore up the run defense but they will need to be able to both get pressure early and disguise their coverage to confuse Baker Mayfield and force errant throws.

 

Give them Jarvis Landry. I know he had 160 yards when they beat the Ravens but if you are making the Browns throw to Landry a lot then defensively you are doing your job. Don't be surprised if this looks like Jamieson Crowder week one where he ends up with 100 yards off 9 or 10 catches and during the game you think "man Landry is killing us" and then you look at the scoreboard and see the Browns have fewer than 20 points. The Broncos had a plan to not let OBJ beat them and while he had one of his typically athletic catches for 27 in a critical spot in the 4th Quarter that eventually led to the Landry TD for the most part they bottled him up well. I expect Tre White to see a lot of OBJ on Sunday.

 

Make Duke active. I was in favour of having Duke inactive last week based on a pretty lacklustre day against the Eagles and the matchup vs the Washington secondary. However, he should play this week. My knock on Denzel Ward coming out of college was whether he was really suited outside in the NFL against bigger, stronger, more physical receivers. Physicality was a knock on Greedy Williams last year too who while 6'2 has been questioned in respect of his willingness to mix it with big guys. Now Duke Williams is most decidedly not Courtland Sutton from a talent standpoint (more on him later) but he is that bigger more physical type that Ward in particular is struggling against. This to me is what Duke is - a game plan specific weapon. He suited the way you beat the Tennessee corners and he suits the way I think the Bills should attack the Browns corners too.

 

Use the aggressiveness of the Cleveland Dline against them. Myles Garrett is great but he is so aggressive and gets up the field so quickly that you can expose them with bubble screens to the outside and delayed hand offs. Equally the middle of that defensive line has not proven it can hold up against the run so it should be an easier assignment inside for the Bills blockers and backs than the past two weeks against Washington and Philadelphia's defensive interiors.

 

Broncos

Stop the inside zone. For as long as I have been watching football it feels like the Broncos offense has been built around the inside zone run. Take out a couple of years where they ran the Peyton Manning offense and it has been their identity basically since the Shanahan era. Hardly anyone has heard of Rich Scangarello their OC - in fact before I watched them play the Bears earlier in the season I hadn't. While watching that game I was struck by the fact that they were basically running the stretch zone and when I googled it the reason why became obvious. Scangarello's last two stops in the NFL were are as Offensive Quality Control coach in Atlanta under OC Kyle Shanahan and QB coach in San Francisco under, you guessed it, HC Kyle Shanahan. That "left inside zone" run that the Bills spent 2 and a half games getting gashed by? Well they better sell out to stop it against Denver because if not Philip Lindsay will make it a long day. The good news is I think they are pretty safe to sell out to stop the run because I am pretty confident that Brandon Allen will not be able to beat this Bills team throwing it. On paper 12/20 for 193 and a TD looks respectable for your NFL debut. On tape there were some ugly throws.

 

Pass on first down. Vic Fangio is one of the great NFL defensive minds. His defences have been top 5 units in 8 of the last 12 NFL seasons. But his defense is pretty traditional and is about playing the percentages and trying to force teams into third and long, obvious passing situations, and then teeing off. What I noticed was that other than one sack where they confused Mayfield and he held it and took a sack every other throw he attempted on first down in the first half was complete. I think he missed a couple in the 2nd half but at one stage he was 6/6 on first down passes. So I went back a week and looked at this. Jacoby Brissett was 8/9 on first down passes against the Broncs in week 8. It is a real thing. I know generally it is easier to complete passes on 1st down than third down right across the league but the differential against Fangio's defense really does appear stark. Pass on first down. If you are incomplete you can always try and run it on 2nd down to give you a more manageable third down but the way to expose this D is to pass on early downs.

 

Double Courtland Sutton. Watch out for this kid. He is one of the fastest ascending receiver talents in the NFL. I loved him in 2017 and was ready to give him a first round grade in the 2017 draft but he went back to school and I didn't quite love his 2018 tape as much and had him as a 1st/2nd borderline guy in 2018 just behind Calvin Ridley who was my WR1. I should have stuck with my 2017 evaluation. This kid is an absolute stud. I think he is better than the two receivers who went top 10 in 2017. There might be a tendency to say stick Tre White on him but his body type reminds me of the sort of WRs that have, on occasion, caused White problems in his short and excellent NFL career thus far - tall, rangy, and deceptively fast. Think Robby Anderson who has troubled him a couple of times and AJ Green who got him bad his rookie year. My approach would be sell out to stop Lindsay on the inside zone. Double Sutton and ask Allen to beat you with what is left. He won't.

 

 

Neither of these games is a gimme - both teams have some talent and have ways they can hurt you but they both have significant weaknesses too. These are games where coaching is really going to matter. If the Bills can really take away the things these teams do best and focus on exploiting their weaknesses they should be wins. But if the Bills are not prepared and let these teams do the things they do well then either could easily become the backbreaking loss that so far we have avoided this season.

 

 

[Halloween Land]

Great analysis! Both teams will be difficult to beat but the Bills got to at least win one of them. They need to win 2 out of the next 3 games which are: Browns, Dolphins & Broncos. 

Edited November 7, 2019 by Halloween Land

[oldmanfan]

Great stuff here.

[PaattMaann]

Too bad our bend but dont break defense wont follow your advice and take away the rhythm passing that Baker prefers....we love giving up easy completions and forcing teams to put together 10 plus play drives. You are correct, thats what Baker does well. Hopefully his dumb coach will truly try to force feed OBJ and force Baker into longer looks holding the ball. 

 

Good analysis. The Broncos worry me about as much as a gnat, the Browns however, I feel like we could easily drop this one. 

[freddyjj]

Great stuff Gunner Bill.  A couple questions for you.

 

If Bills use 8 in box to stop Chubb/Hunt in run game do they run risk of OBJ going off?  Do Browns have a TE that can beat Bills down the seam?

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, freddyjj said:

Great stuff Gunner Bill.  A couple questions for you.

 

If Bills use 8 in box to stop Chubb/Hunt in run game do they run risk of OBJ going off?  Do Browns have a TE that can beat Bills down the seam?

 

The answer to the first question is really - it depends how Tre holds up in 1v1. I expect him to travel with OBJ on Sunday and OBJ is more the type that Tre has been excellent at shutting down fast and a route running technician - albeit he has that circus catch radius and ability that most don't.

 

I think without David Njoku (IR) the answer on the Tight End is no they don't. Harris who was with KC last year is their starter and he is very much in the blocking tight end who can make the odd catch in the 5-10 yard range and in the redzone but isn't going to break away from you down the seam.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

23 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Morning folks. I spent some time last night watching and rewatching the Browns and Broncos game from Sunday given that they are two of the Bills next three opponents.

Liar!  No human could tolerate the retinal strain that was on the screen, thanks to those uniforms!

*
Seriously, great work on the analysis.

[PaattMaann]

8 minutes ago, freddyjj said:

Great stuff Gunner Bill.  A couple questions for you.

 

If Bills use 8 in box to stop Chubb/Hunt in run game do they run risk of OBJ going off?  Do Browns have a TE that can beat Bills down the seam?

 

not really...Ricky Seals Jones is their starter, he isn't being targeted much, but he HAS been effective when targeted, averaging over 17 yards per catch (being skewed largely due to only having 9 catches and one went for 59 yards). He is also questionable with a knee injury. So, short answer, no we shouldnt be worried about a seam beater this week

[BuffaloMatt]

39 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Morning folks. I spent some time last night watching and re-watching the Browns and Broncos game from Sunday given that they are two of the Bills next three opponents. Here are some interesting pointers to areas where I think the Bills might want to pay special attention in those matchups.

 

Browns

Make Mayfield hold the football. Baker Mayfield has always been at his best in a rhythm passing offense. When he can get the ball out of his hands quickly to his first read he is a more decisive and accurate passer. If you can take his first read away or get early pressure that takes eyes away from looking down the field and makes them look at the rush then he holds the ball and it is when he holds the ball that bad things tend to happen. He makes poor decisions, takes bad sacks and when he does throw it his accuracy drops off. The Bills early in the season were getting good push early in the middle of the pocket and changing coverages just before the snap on defense. They had to simplify some of that last week in an effort to shore up the run defense but they will need to be able to both get pressure early and disguise their coverage to confuse Baker Mayfield and force errant throws.

 

Give them Jarvis Landry. I know he had 160 yards when they beat the Ravens but if you are making the Browns throw to Landry a lot then defensively you are doing your job. Don't be surprised if this looks like Jamieson Crowder week one where he ends up with 100 yards off 9 or 10 catches and during the game you think "man Landry is killing us" and then you look at the scoreboard and see the Browns have fewer than 20 points. The Broncos had a plan to not let OBJ beat them and while he had one of his typically athletic catches for 27 in a critical spot in the 4th Quarter that eventually led to the Landry TD for the most part they bottled him up well. I expect Tre White to see a lot of OBJ on Sunday.

 

Make Duke active. I was in favour of having Duke inactive last week based on a pretty lacklustre day against the Eagles and the matchup vs the Washington secondary. However, he should play this week. My knock on Denzel Ward coming out of college was whether he was really suited outside in the NFL against bigger, stronger, more physical receivers. Physicality was a knock on Greedy Williams last year too who while 6'2 has been questioned in respect of his willingness to mix it with big guys. Now Duke Williams is most decidedly not Courtland Sutton from a talent standpoint (more on him later) but he is that bigger more physical type that Ward in particular is struggling against. This to me is what Duke is - a game plan specific weapon. He suited the way you beat the Tennessee corners and he suits the way I think the Bills should attack the Browns corners too.

 

Use the aggressiveness of the Cleveland Dline against them. Myles Garrett is great but he is so aggressive and gets up the field so quickly that you can expose them with bubble screens to the outside and delayed hand offs. Equally the middle of that defensive line has not proven it can hold up against the run so it should be an easier assignment inside for the Bills blockers and backs than the past two weeks against Washington and Philadelphia's defensive interiors.

 

Broncos

Stop the inside zone. For as long as I have been watching football it feels like the Broncos offense has been built around the inside zone run. Take out a couple of years where they ran the Peyton Manning offense and it has been their identity basically since the Shanahan era. Hardly anyone has heard of Rich Scangarello their OC - in fact before I watched them play the Bears earlier in the season I hadn't. While watching that game I was struck by the fact that they were basically running the stretch zone and when I googled it the reason why became obvious. Scangarello's last two stops in the NFL were are as Offensive Quality Control coach in Atlanta under OC Kyle Shanahan and QB coach in San Francisco under, you guessed it, HC Kyle Shanahan. That "left inside zone" run that the Bills spent 2 and a half games getting gashed by? Well they better sell out to stop it against Denver because if not Philip Lindsay will make it a long day. The good news is I think they are pretty safe to sell out to stop the run because I am pretty confident that Brandon Allen will not be able to beat this Bills team throwing it. On paper 12/20 for 193 and a TD looks respectable for your NFL debut. On tape there were some ugly throws.

 

Pass on first down. Vic Fangio is one of the great NFL defensive minds. His defences have been top 5 units in 8 of the last 12 NFL seasons. But his defense is pretty traditional and is about playing the percentages and trying to force teams into third and long, obvious passing situations, and then teeing off. What I noticed was that other than one sack where they confused Mayfield and he held it and took a sack every other throw he attempted on first down in the first half was complete. I think he missed a couple in the 2nd half but at one stage he was 6/6 on first down passes. So I went back a week and looked at this. Jacoby Brissett was 8/9 on first down passes against the Broncs in week 8. It is a real thing. I know generally it is easier to complete passes on 1st down than third down right across the league but the differential against Fangio's defense really does appear stark. Pass on first down. If you are incomplete you can always try and run it on 2nd down to give you a more manageable third down but the way to expose this D is to pass on early downs.

 

Double Courtland Sutton. Watch out for this kid. He is one of the fastest ascending receiver talents in the NFL. I loved him in 2017 and was ready to give him a first round grade in the 2017 draft but he went back to school and I didn't quite love his 2018 tape as much and had him as a 1st/2nd borderline guy in 2018 just behind Calvin Ridley who was my WR1. I should have stuck with my 2017 evaluation. This kid is an absolute stud. I think he is better than the two receivers who went top 10 in 2017. There might be a tendency to say stick Tre White on him but his body type reminds me of the sort of WRs that have, on occasion, caused White problems in his short and excellent NFL career thus far - tall, rangy, and deceptively fast. Think Robby Anderson who has troubled him a couple of times and AJ Green who got him bad his rookie year. My approach would be sell out to stop Lindsay on the inside zone. Double Sutton and ask Allen to beat you with what is left. He won't.

 

 

Neither of these games is a gimme - both teams have some talent and have ways they can hurt you but they both have significant weaknesses too. These are games where coaching is really going to matter. If the Bills can really take away the things these teams do best and focus on exploiting their weaknesses they should be wins. But if the Bills are not prepared and let these teams do the things they do well then either could easily become the backbreaking loss that so far we have avoided this season.

 

 

Back Breaking is right. I am worried about this one for sure, Broncos I'll worry about next week. 

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

 

not really...Ricky Seals Jones is their starter, he isn't being targeted much, but he HAS been effective when targeted, averaging over 17 yards per catch (being skewed largely due to only having 9 catches and one went for 59 yards). He is also questionable with a knee injury. So, short answer, no we shouldnt be worried about a seam beater this week

 

Harris has actually been the starter - but you are right to suggest Seals-Jones probably has more big play ability when he is in there. Still, as you say, nobody that should scare us.

[r00tabaga]

Excellent post Gun. 

+1

[GG]

22 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Harris has actually been the starter - but you are right to suggest Seals-Jones probably has more big play ability when he is in there. Still, as you say, nobody that should scare us.

SJ played that role vs Broncos, but he got nicked up and may not be full speed for the game. 

 

Fully agree on the analysis to make Baker hesitate a bit.  If he's not in rhythm, he's highly erratic. 

[bigK14094]

1 hour ago, Halloween Land said:

Great analysis! Both teams will be difficult to beat but the Bills got to at least win one of them. They need to win 2 out of the next 3 games which are: Browns, Dolphins & Broncos. 

I think 3 for 3 is feasible .  Just wondering if the Bills can be that consistent.  Based on the first half of the season, I think there is a chance......2 out of three wouldn't clinch a playoff spot....three for three would imho.

[GunnerBill]

24 minutes ago, bigK14094 said:

I think 3 for 3 is feasible .  Just wondering if the Bills can be that consistent.  Based on the first half of the season, I think there is a chance......2 out of three wouldn't clinch a playoff spot....three for three would imho.

 

Agree. 9-2 with 5 to play we are all but in. 8-3 we are in a nice spot but with work to do. 7-4 and it starts to become tricky with that last month's schedule.

[Gugny]

@GunnerBill - Thanks for the analysis!

 

I'm wondering if we'd be better off giving them Chubb instead of Landry.

 

We basically gave the Redskins AP (in the first half, anyway) and all they ended up with were field goals.

 

Would letting Chubb get his yard, thus giving Mayfield a shorter field, work to our benefit?

 

[MJS]

1 hour ago, GG said:

SJ played that role vs Broncos, but he got nicked up and may not be full speed for the game. 

 

Fully agree on the analysis to make Baker hesitate a bit.  If he's not in rhythm, he's highly erratic. 

Interesting, because in college he was praised for his ability to make plays on the broken play. Guess that's harder in the NFL.

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, Gugny said:

@GunnerBill - Thanks for the analysis!

 

I'm wondering if we'd be better off giving them Chubb instead of Landry.

 

We basically gave the Redskins AP (in the first half, anyway) and all they ended up with were field goals.

 

Would letting Chubb get his yard, thus giving Mayfield a shorter field, work to our benefit?

 

 

I don't think we should be specifically planning to take Chubb away. They are so inconsistent and incoherent in the way they use the run anyway. I think the focus should be disrupting Baker making him hold the ball and shutting down OBJ. Landry will get some yards. But I don't think he can take the game away from us. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Cleveland i think the keys controlling the clock - and NOT shooting themselves in the foot with penalties/turnovers whatever... move the ball - get points.  If they do that well they should do fine.

 

Denver the key is getting on them early.  Do what you need to do to score 20+ points against a pretty good defense.  They're 0-4 when the opponent scores 20.  They've lost 3 games by 3 points or less... so this isn't a bad 3-6 team - if anything its a good 3-6 team in need of a QB.  

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think we should be specifically planning to take Chubb away. They are so inconsistent and incoherent in the way they use the run anyway. I think the focus should be disrupting Baker making him hold the ball and shutting down OBJ. Landry will get some yards. But I don't think he can take the game away from us. 

Someone else said it earlier but the best way to stop chubb other than selling out?  Just score a bunch of points ?

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, dneveu said:

Cleveland i think the keys controlling the clock - and NOT shooting themselves in the foot with penalties/turnovers whatever... move the ball - get points.  If they do that well they should do fine.

 

Denver the key is getting on them early.  Do what you need to do to score 20+ points against a pretty good defense.  They're 0-4 when the opponent scores 20.  They've lost 3 games by 3 points or less... so this isn't a bad 3-6 team - if anything its a good 3-6 team in need of a QB.  

Someone else said it earlier but the best way to stop chubb other than selling out?  Just score a bunch of points ?

 

Yep. With both teams getting up early to take away the run game would help. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep. With both teams getting up early to take away the run game would help. 

 

With Denver's QB situation you're looking at a strategy similar to that of Washington.  I think we're going to pound the rock that game a lot... In a game where you think the other team is likely incapable of big plays and execution in the red zone it makes somewhat of sense.