Josh Allen 2019 Regular Season at 58.8% Completion Percentage

[BigBillsFan]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Permit me to assist you to address his entire post:

 

 

Sure and let's stay with the theme of the 2018 Rams since that's the team.

 

Game 1
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201809100rai.htm
33 passes to 25 rushes. They are up 20 to 13 end of the 3rd and 4th 33 to 13.
At one point in the game Goff passes 29 times and Gurley 16 until they are winning and rushing to wind down the clock.

 

Game 2
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201809160ram.htm#all_pbp
32 passes 31 rushes. The last 15 plays 9 were to Brown and 6 were passes. Why? They were winning a lot by then. When Gurley leaves the game it’s 28 passes to 19 rushes.

I could go game after game, it’s the same thing. It’s 60-65% passing and 35-40% rushing.

 

KC does this, NE did this when Brady’s arm wasn’t shot, Manning did this, Pitt now does this with Big Ben.

The top teams over the last decade are 60-65% passing and they rush a lot at the end because they are usually up big. I watch enough football to know this is true.

 

Look at this boxscore when the games are close and it’s more apparent:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201809160pit.htm

Mahomes 28 passes and 20 rushes. Ben threw it 60 times and 13 rushes.

 

The difference is 1. The best QBs are retiring, getting old and 2. The defenses are all geared for the pass. You have success with the Ravens and 49ers model for 2 seasons the defenses will switch to run stuffers, but a great passer will always have an advantage no matter what in the league.

[transplantbillsfan]

4 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

You know exactly what I mean. It’s hard to take you seriously after spending three years doing the same song and dance with Tyrod. 

 

Number one: I was genuinely confused by what you said.

 

In part, it was the wording.

 

But as I've pieced together what you've said, it's also because I'm being quite honest and pretty objective with Allen.

 

Allen improved significantly in all aspects of his game from year 1 to year 2, but has some distance to go still before we can conclusively call him our QB for the next 10-15 years. In particular, he needs to work on deep ball accuracy, which he got worse in, touch, which he got better in, and decision making, which he got much better in, but still isn't up to par. He suffered from the highest drop percentage in the NFL by 1%, which is a wide margin when you look at the bunching of numbers below him. Bad throw percentage and drop percentage do not crossover in any way, thus it is ridiculous to accuse Allen of being responsible for his guys having the stat of highest drop percentage and 3rd most total drops in the NFL. His accuracy, while still a work in progress, falls within what I believe is acceptable range (less than 2%) of QBs like Aaron Rodgers and Kyler Murray and is better than the 2 QBs who played in the Super Bowl last year--if you're using something like On Target percentage as a true measure of accuracy, which you seem to.

 

What I think you and some others do is look at QBs in the NFL and view them from some kind of cookie cutter perspective of where a QB should be statistically by which year and then use that as an opportunity for extreme skepticism. I think that's just stupid.

 

I won't recount Allen's history for the 100th time, but considering his story from High School to now, where he is at the moment is beyond mass expectation for a 23 year old kid who has already played in a playoff game and accounted for 350+ yards of offense in his very first playoff game, which was also on the road.

 

Dude has work to do, but I feel good about him doing it and taking another step next year.

 

Maybe you should stop being intellectually dishonest about Josh and admit that you think he should have demonstrated he's a Franchise QB concretely already... because that's clearly how you feel.

 

4 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

 

We don’t have to back up the excuse train this hard. We all know Josh doesn’t have Deandre Hopkins. 31 teams don’t have Deandre Hopkins. It would be nice to have one and it would make Josh look better. It probably wouldn’t make him a better QB, he needs to do that on his own.

 

"It would make Josh look better but wouldn't make him a better QB."

 

Clearly you will admit that it's only logical for you to admit that having a WR corps without DeAndre Hopkins that has dropped more passes by percentage than any other WR corps in the NFL and can't competently accomplish a routine sideline toe drag makes him look worse...

 

right?

[BringBackOrton]

2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Number one: I was genuinely confused by what you said.

 

In part, it was the wording.

 

But as I've pieced together what you've said, it's also because I'm being quite honest and pretty objective with Allen.

 

Allen improved significantly in all aspects of his game from year 1 to year 2, but has some distance to go still before we can conclusively call him our QB for the next 10-15 years. In particular, he needs to work on deep ball accuracy, which he got worse in, touch, which he got better in, and decision making, which he got much better in, but still isn't up to par. He suffered from the highest drop percentage in the NFL by 1%, which is a wide margin when you look at the bunching of numbers below him. Bad throw percentage and drop percentage do not crossover in any way, thus it is ridiculous to accuse Allen of being responsible for his guys having the stat of highest drop percentage and 3rd most total drops in the NFL. His accuracy, while still a work in progress, falls within what I believe is acceptable range (less than 2%) of QBs like Aaron Rodgers and Kyler Murray and is better than the 2 QBs who played in the Super Bowl last year--if you're using something like On Target percentage as a true measure of accuracy, which you seem to.

 

What I think you and some others do is look at QBs in the NFL and view them from some kind of cookie cutter perspective of where a QB should be statistically by which year and then use that as an opportunity for extreme skepticism. I think that's just stupid.

 

I won't recount Allen's history for the 100th time, but considering his story from High School to now, where he is at the moment is beyond mass expectation for a 23 year old kid who has already played in a playoff game and accounted for 350+ yards of offense in his very first playoff game, which was also on the road.

 

Dude has work to do, but I feel good about him doing it and taking another step next year.

 

Maybe you should stop being intellectually dishonest about Josh and admit that you think he should have demonstrated he's a Franchise QB concretely already... because that's clearly how you feel.

 

 

"It would make Josh look better but wouldn't make him a better QB."

 

Clearly you will admit that it's only logical for you to admit that having a WR corps without DeAndre Hopkins that has dropped more passes by percentage than any other WR corps in the NFL and can't competently accomplish a routine sideline toe drag makes him look worse...

 

right?

My position would be having receivers not as good as Deandre Hopkins makes Allen appear worse than if he had Hopkins. But it doesn’t change his ability as a QB.

[Doc Brown]

14 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

I apologize if my post wasn’t more clear...BigBillsFan’s post referenced Manning’s first and second season accomplishments...which is what I was trying to compare with JA-...26 games in...no 300 yard games or 3500 yard season or 4/5 td games...that would include garbage time and overtime games in both seasons...and that was the sad part...

 

You would think that a top 10 quarterback would be able to “stumble” into that at least once or twice in 26 games...right?

Manning's a statue in the pocket though so it's fairer to compare their combined passing and rushing stats. 

 

Allen had over 300 yards combined rushing and passing 5 times in 26 games.  Manning did it 7 times in 33 games.

Allen had two 4/5 TD games.  Manning had zero.

 

Allen had over 3500 combined yards in his first full season starting.  Manning did the same in his first two full seasons starting. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Manning's a statue in the pocket though so it's fairer to compare their combined passing and rushing stats. 

 

Allen had over 300 yards combined rushing and passing 5 times in 26 games.  Manning did it 7 times in 33 games.

Allen had two 4/5 TD games.  Manning had zero.

 

Allen had over 3500 combined yards in his first full season starting.  Manning did the same in his first two full seasons starting. 

 

I don't understand what all these comparisons to today's or yesterday's proven elite QB are supposed to accomplish.  Yeah you can find similar stats if you look selectively.  You can also find similar stats in QBs who failed to develop and were out of the league (or holding clipboards) after 3-4 years.

 

Allen needs to improve to be our long term QB.  He left makeable plays on the field and some of them would have won games.  He knows this.  We all know this.  He'll either take that step and improve, or he won't.  Only time will tell, time and how badly he wants it/how hard he is willing to work.

He improved as a passer between his rookie season (in which the GM admits his surrounding cast was far from good enough) and his 2nd season.  His completion % improved, his passing TD/INT improved, his YPG, TD% and INT% all improved.  The passer rating grid on NFL next gen stats shows improvement to most areas of the field.  AY/A and ANY/A improved.  Passer rating improved.  These are all things I know from research to be linked to QB performance a team can win with.  He's not quite there, but he's very close.

 

Some people don't know this, but they're just weird, or maybe selective about where they look and in the benchmarks they apply, or they place their trust in secret special sauce statistics, I don't know. 

 

Allen is an outlier as a QB prospect, a "sport" in the genetic sense.  He didn't follow anything close to the usual path for a QB prospect, as far as youth camps and coaches, college recruitment, level of talent around him, level of competition around him.  So various statistical comparisons or formulas developed from years of experience with prospects drawn from those paths probably don't mean too much when applied to him.

 

Even QB from those paths, improve on their own timeline.  Drew Brees, Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers - yeah, what'd HE Look like after his first 3 seasons?.  There are two errors that get made with QB.  One is to hang on for too long to a QB who doesn't really have it.  The other is to move on too soon from a QB who really does. 

[BigBillsFan]

4 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Manning's a statue in the pocket though so it's fairer to compare their combined passing and rushing stats. 

 

Allen had over 300 yards combined rushing and passing 5 times in 26 games.  Manning did it 7 times in 33 games.

Allen had two 4/5 TD games.  Manning had zero.

 

Allen had over 3500 combined yards in his first full season starting.  Manning did the same in his first two full seasons starting. 

 

300 yards combined as a stat has never been a determination for a QBs long-term stability. RGIII, Kaepernick, et al, were all "figured out". Rodgers when he was younger did great rushing because he could legitimately throw, the same with Steve Young.

 

Manning thew for over 4,100 yards in his 2nd year, the team was 13-3. He was a bona fide superstar/known commodity. Throwing for 4,100 yards in 1999 is like throwing for 4800-4900 yards now.

 

They aren't comparable. It's like comparing oranges and tanks.

 

The closest athlete I would compare Allen to is Steve McNair. Allen had a bigger arm, McNair was more accurate coming out of college. Both struggled with accuracy in the pros, both ran well. The difference was the Titans identity was mostly a rushing based attack. We don't have any identity on offense. I don't blame Allen for that. He's being coached wrong.

[Big Gun]

1 hour ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

300 yards combined as a stat has never been a determination for a QBs long-term stability. RGIII, Kaepernick, et al, were all "figured out". Rodgers when he was younger did great rushing because he could legitimately throw, the same with Steve Young.

 

Manning thew for over 4,100 yards in his 2nd year, the team was 13-3. He was a bona fide superstar/known commodity. Throwing for 4,100 yards in 1999 is like throwing for 4800-4900 yards now.

 

They aren't comparable. It's like comparing oranges and tanks.

 

The closest athlete I would compare Allen to is Steve McNair. Allen had a bigger arm, McNair was more accurate coming out of college. Both struggled with accuracy in the pros, both ran well. The difference was the Titans identity was mostly a rushing based attack. We don't have any identity on offense. I don't blame Allen for that. He's being coached wrong.

Who was Manning throwing to? Huge difference between Allens weapons and Mannings.

Manning also had some guy named Bruce Ariens as QB coach.

 

Marvin Harrison 115 rec on 184 targets

Edgerrin James 62 rec on 82 targets, oh and he rushed for 1553 yards

2 decent veteren TE Dilger/Pollard 74 rec on 92 targets 

 

Manning also had 72 more pass attempts than Allen. You can add about 500 more pass yards to Allens total if you extrapolate everything out. 

 

If you do add all the numbers up for Manning and add the 500 more passing yards to Allen their total numbers look quite similar despite the HUGE difference surrounding them in talent.

 

Manning      4135 pass yards 73 rush yards 28 total TDs 15 int GWD 7 

Allen             3600 pass yards 510 rush yards 29 total TDs 9 int GWD 5

 

Keep poopooing Allen and he will keep you haters looking like the fools you are!

Edited January 22, 2020 by pop gun

[Billl]

This place is great.  Let's just add 500 passing yards to Josh's passing yards and then compare his fake stats to Manning's actual stats.

 

You want to "adjust" the stats to account for number of chances each QB had?  Cool.

 

Allen had 461 passing attempts and 109 rushing attempts for a total of 3599 yards on 570 total attempts. That comes to 6.3 yards per attempt.

 

Manning had 533 passes and 35 rushes for a total of 4208 yards on 568 total attempts.  That comes to 7.4 yards per attempt.

[BigBillsFan]

41 minutes ago, pop gun said:

Who was Manning throwing to? Huge difference between Allens weapons and Mannings.

Manning also had some guy named Bruce Ariens as QB coach.

 

Marvin Harrison 115 rec on 184 targets

Edgerrin James 62 rec on 82 targets, oh and he rushed for 1553 yards

2 decent veteren TE Dilger/Pollard 74 rec on 92 targets 

 

Manning also had 72 more pass attempts than Allen. You can add about 500 more pass yards to Allens total if you extrapolate everything out. 

 

If you do add all the numbers up for Manning and add the 500 more passing yards to Allen their total numbers look quite similar despite the HUGE difference surrounding them in talent.

 

Manning      4135 pass yards 73 rush yards 28 total TDs 15 int GWD 7 

Allen             3600 pass yards 510 rush yards 29 total TDs 9 int GWD 5

 

Keep poopooing Allen and he will keep you haters looking like the fools you are!

 

My point wasn't "poopooing" Allen, but to point out he's not Manning, nor should he be coached to be Manning, but more of a modern McNair/Big Ben.

 

Your numbers are bogus he didn't throw for 3600 yards, that's you adding 500 yards. If Allen threw more completions he would have thrown more, that's how that works. He was a 3 and out machine for the 1st 3 quarters of a lot of games.

 

Comparing Manning to Allen is ridiculous. One is a Lambo (manning) and one is a monster truck (Allen). Both can win in the league with the right scheme. If you think the Arians offense of Indy could ever be done by Allen you’re wrong, he’s not capable right now, and he may not be capable period.

 

The best way for the Bills to win with Allen is to treat him like McNair or Big Ben and develop a great running game and let the team do the winning. The 4th quarter comebacks against the mighty Bengals (21 points), Titans (14 points) and Jets (17 points) don’t impress me. It just meant our offense sucked all game.

 

My point has been and will be not that Allen sucks but we need to stop thinking of him like Marino, Elway, Manning and Mahomes and think of him like a young Big Ben/McNair and have an identity that matches theirs.

[transplantbillsfan]

10 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

My position would be having receivers not as good as Deandre Hopkins makes Allen appear worse than if he had Hopkins. But it doesn’t change his ability as a QB.

 

Okay, Elite WRs like Deandre Hopkins and Julio Jones make Deshaun Watson and Matt Ryan look better, so can you also acknowledge the only logical counter that a WR corps without DeAndre Hopkins or other Elite WRs that drop more passes by percentage than any other WR corps in the NFL and can't competently accomplish a routine sideline toe drag make a QB look worse?

[jrober38]

18 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Okay, Elite WRs like Deandre Hopkins and Julio Jones make Deshaun Watson and Matt Ryan look better, so can you also acknowledge the only logical counter that a WR corps without DeAndre Hopkins or other Elite WRs that drop more passes by percentage than any other WR corps in the NFL and can't competently accomplish a routine sideline toe drag make a QB look worse?

 

Having receivers definitely helps.

 

Not missing deep balls by 5 yards also helps.

 

Better receivers won't help the thing Allen needs the most help with, which is his erratic deep ball accuracy. 

[BigBillsFan]

24 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Okay, Elite WRs like Deandre Hopkins and Julio Jones make Deshaun Watson and Matt Ryan look better, so can you also acknowledge the only logical counter that a WR corps without DeAndre Hopkins or other Elite WRs that drop more passes by percentage than any other WR corps in the NFL and can't competently accomplish a routine sideline toe drag make a QB look worse?

 

I did some digging: Watson is 69% passing and 72% to Hopkins.

Previous QBs on the Texans were 59% to Hopkins

 

The 13% was the QB, not the WR.

3% differentials to WRs won't change a QB's numbers that much, it's the QB

[Billl]

His receivers do tend to drop a lot of passes.  Beasley, for example dropped 6 passes this season after dropping only 1 last year.  He also had a catch rate of 63% this season after having a rate of 75% last season.  Did he just forget how to catch, or do some QBs just throw better balls than others?

 

Drew Brees throws accurate passes.  He also throws them with touch and perfect spirals.  His receivers don't drop many balls.

 

Allen throws less accurate passes.  He hasn't mastered touch, and he throws a lot of wobblers.  His receivers drop more balls than other teams.

 

Is there a connection?  I don't know, but it would mane sense that a player catching passes that are consistently perfectly thrown is less likely to drop a ball than a player who is routinely forced to adjust.

[C.Biscuit97]

52 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Okay, Elite WRs like Deandre Hopkins and Julio Jones make Deshaun Watson and Matt Ryan look better, so can you also acknowledge the only logical counter that a WR corps without DeAndre Hopkins or other Elite WRs that drop more passes by percentage than any other WR corps in the NFL and can't competently accomplish a routine sideline toe drag make a QB look worse?

See this does nothing.  Watson was an absolute animal in college.  Matt Ryan carried a crappy BC team.  
 

would an elite receiver help? I would like to think so.  But a smart betting man won’t ever put money on Allen becoming a passer like those 2 because he never has been.  That’s been my main issue with the Allen pick.  We are hoping he becomes a better player in the nfl than he was in the MWC.  And while I have serious doubts he can get to the Ryan and Watson level as a passer, he can still be a very effective player if we play to his strengths.  

[2003Contenders]

The Manning-Allen comparisons are silly. Aside from having similar records after 2 seasons, their style of play is in no way comparable.

 

Manning was groomed to be an NFL QB from the time he was a child and was maybe the most "sure thing" of any NFL prospect -- ever. The offense at Tennessee was built around him, and he would have been the no-doubt #1 overall pick if he had chosen to come out in the 1997 draft. He elected to stay for his senior year -- and was the no doubt #1 overall pick the following year. Manning was one of the most cerebral (from a football perspective) players to ever set foot on the field.

 

Even Josh Allen's biggest supporters recognized that he came into the league extremely raw. His first-round draft position was based on his great physical talent -- and potential. Josh's arm strength and mobility FAR surpass the natural talent that Manning possessed; however, after just two seasons in the league, Josh isn't even in the same stratosphere as Peyton Manning when it comes to X's and O's.

 

Josh is a bright kid and has a strong desire to get better, which I believe will continue to serve him well -- but trying to draw comparisons between him and arguably the QB with the greatest mind in NFL history is unfair.

[C.Biscuit97]

12 minutes ago, Billl said:

His receivers do tend to drop a lot of passes.  Beasley, for example dropped 6 passes this season after dropping only 1 last year.  He also had a catch rate of 63% this season after having a rate of 75% last season.  Did he just forget how to catch, or do some QBs just throw better balls than others?

 

Drew Brees throws accurate passes.  He also throws them with touch and perfect spirals.  His receivers don't drop many balls.

 

Allen throws less accurate passes.  He hasn't mastered touch, and he throws a lot of wobblers.  His receivers drop more balls than other teams.

 

Is there a connection?  I don't know, but it would mane sense that a player catching passes that are consistently perfectly thrown is less likely to drop a ball than a player who is routinely forced to adjust.

This is a point I’ve been trying to make.  The need a catchable pass stat because every drop isn’t the same.  I don’t think it’s a stretch to say Drew Brees throws a more catchable ball than Josh Allen.

[2003Contenders]

29 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

This is a point I’ve been trying to make.  The need a catchable pass stat because every drop isn’t the same.  I don’t think it’s a stretch to say Drew Brees throws a more catchable ball than Josh Allen.

 

No doubt. Brees is a sure-fire Hall of Famer and one of the most precise passers ever. But he wasn't always that way. In fact, there is a clear delineation between his days with the Chargers (his first 5 years in the league) and what he has been able to do with Sean Payton in New Orleans since then.

 

If we want to talk apples to apples, Brees completed less than 58% of his passes in 2 of his first 3 years in the league. His combined TD-INT ratio after those three seasons was 29-31. The Chargers thought so much of him after those first 3 years, that they pulled the trigger to acquire Phil Rivers in the 2004 draft. I remember seeing him first-hand back in 2002 against the Bledsoe Bills in Orchard Park; Brees absolutely could NOT physically throw the ball in those winds -- and Flutie came in off the bench to play for him.

 

If nothing else, I guess the Brees saga proves that Accuracy CAN improve over time (Brees has been no worse than 63% -- and usually near 70% -- every year since going to New Orleans).

Edited January 22, 2020 by 2003Contenders

[Billl]

8 minutes ago, 2003Contenders said:

 

No doubt. Brees is a sure-fire Hall of Famer and one of the most precise passers ever. But he wasn't always that way. In fact, there is a clear delineation between his days with the Chargers (his first 5 years in the league) and what he has been able to do with Sean Payton in New Orleans since then.

 

If we want to talk apples to apples, Brees completed less than 58% of his passes in 2 of his first 3 years in the league. His combined TD-INT ratio after those three seasons was 29-31. The Chargers thought so much of him after those first 3 years, that they pulled the trigger to acquire Phil Rivers in the 2004 draft. I remember seeing him first-hand back in 2002 against the Bledsoe Bills in Orchard Park; Brees absolutely could NOT physically throw the ball in those winds -- and Flutie came in off the bench to play for him.

 

If nothing else, I guess the Brees saga proves that Accuracy CAN improve over time (Brees has been no worse than 63% -- and usually near 70% -- every year since going to New Orleans).

Brees is the exception to every rule, and even he completed over 60% in college.  If Josh turns into a franchise QB, 20 years from now fans of underperforming QBs will point to him to show that their guy is also going to turn out great.  98% of the time they will be wrong.

Edited January 22, 2020 by Billl

[C.Biscuit97]

9 minutes ago, 2003Contenders said:

 

No doubt. Brees is a sure-fire Hall of Famer and one of the most precise passers ever. But he wasn't always that way. In fact, there is a clear delineation between his days with the Chargers (his first 5 years in the league) and what he has been able to do with Sean Payton in New Orleans since then.

 

If we want to talk apples to apples, Brees completed less than 58% of his passes in 2 of his first 3 years in the league. His combined TD-INT ratio after those three seasons was 29-31. The Chargers thought so much of him after those first 3 years, that they pulled the trigger to acquire Phil Rivers in the 2004 draft. I remember seeing him first-hand back in 2002 against the Bledsoe Bills in Orchard Park; Brees absolutely could NOT physically throw the ball in those winds -- and Flutie came in off the bench to play for him.

 

If nothing else, I guess the Brees saga proves that Accuracy CAN improve over time (Brees has been no worse than 63% -- and usually near 70% -- every year since going to New Orleans).

Fair points but this is why comparisons from different eras are misleading.  Allen completed 58.8% of his passes and was in 32nd place (the leader Brees completed 74.3%).  In 2003, Brees completed 57.6% (his only year where he started a game under 69%) and was 18th while the leader was at 67%.  It’s a completely different league.

[BigBillsFan]

8 minutes ago, 2003Contenders said:

 

No doubt. Brees is a sure-fire Hall of Famer and one of the most precise passers ever. But he wasn't always that way. In fact, there his a clear delineation between is days with the Chargers (his first 5 years in the league) and what he has been able to do with Sean Payton in New Orleans since then.

 

If we want to talk apples to apples, Brees completed less than 58% of his passes in 2 of his first 3 years in the league. His combined TD-INT ratio after those three seasons was 29-31. The Chargers thought so much of him after those first 3 years, that they pulled the trigger to acquire Phil Rivers in the 2004 draft. I remember seeing him first-hand back in 2002 against the Bledsoe Bills in Orchard Park; Brees absolutely could NOT physically throw the ball in those winds -- and Flutie came in off the bench to play for him.

 

If nothing else, I guess the Brees saga proves that Accuracy CAN improve over time (Brees has been no worse than 63% -- and usually near 70% -- every year since going to New Orleans).

 

I agree with you.

 

I just want to point out his 1st season he only played 1 game.

Year 2 was his 1st season at 61%

Year 3 2nd season regression at 58%

Year 4 3rd season he was 65.5%

 

The average completion % was 58% for starters and only 4 guys over 4k yards in 2002 and only 2 in 2003 and 5 in 2004.

QB stat creep is not comparable to today.

 

Brees didn't only become more accurate which is true, but he had stat creep with the modern rules. He did become more accurate consistently, but stat creep is real.

11 players over 4k yards in 2019 vs just 2-4 usually, average completion now is 62% for 26 players who started minimum of 8 games. That's 26 players with 62% or higher.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/player/_/season/2019/seasontype/2/table/passing/sort/passingYards/dir/desc

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

Having receivers definitely helps.

 

Not missing deep balls by 5 yards also helps.

 

Better receivers won't help the thing Allen needs the most help with, which is his erratic deep ball accuracy. 

 

True.

 

Fortunately, deep passes are by far the lowest attempted passes by NFL QBs and Allen improved on those in the 2nd half of the season actually connecting on a handful of them.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

DATED DEC 20, 2010

 

The NFL's average completion percent seems to be leveling out right around 60 percent in recent years. For that reason, we're going to set the historical "average" completion percentage at 58 percent. The best seasonal completion percentage of all time is shared by two men.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/553290-passer-score-a-new-and-improved-statistic-for-measuring-quarterback-play

 

going to set the historical "average" completion percentage at 58 percent.

a decade and not much has changed 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

I did some digging: Watson is 69% passing and 72% to Hopkins.

Previous QBs on the Texans were 59% to Hopkins

 

The 13% was the QB, not the WR.

3% differentials to WRs won't change a QB's numbers that much, it's the QB

 

I think targets vs drops might be being conflated here.

 

There are a lot of things that go into completion percentage for a receiver - what kind of routes is he being asked to run, for example?  Are there route options and if so, to what degree are the QB and receiver on the same page about what option he’ll run/what pass the QB will throw?

 

It’s kind of notable that Hopkins catch # was about the same Watson’s first year and with Watson throwing to him, then skyrocketed.  That’s either the offense fine-tuning what works well between them, or Watson and Hopkins getting in sync on their route options.  

 

A couple of the QB throwing to Hopkins during his first seasons had higher completion % overall than to Hopkins; it’s far too simple to just say “it’s the QB”

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

I did some digging: Watson is 69% passing and 72% to Hopkins.

Previous QBs on the Texans were 59% to Hopkins

 

The 13% was the QB, not the WR.

3% differentials to WRs won't change a QB's numbers that much, it's the QB

 

John Brown's best season in the NFL is with Josh Allen as QB. 

 

His 2nd best season was playing with MVP candidate Carson Palmer in 2015 who was also throwing to Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, David Fells and Jermaine Gresham with David Johnson out of the backfield.

 

Cole Beasley's 2nd best season in the NFL is with Josh Allen as QB.

 

His best season was with surprise rookie Dak Prescott, who had his most efficient statistical season while also throwing to Dak Prescott and Jason Witten while handing the ball off to Zeke Elliot.

 

 

If it's the QB and not the WRs, what is it saying that those 2 guys--who were never really considered #1 WRs and were never really expected to perform as such--had career years with Josh Allen at QB?

 

It's the QB, obviously.

 

It's also the Wide Receivers and other offensive weapons, obviously.

 

We need to upgrade our offensive weapons.  Allen needs to work on his game.

 

Both are true.

[dave mcbride]

20 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

True.

 

Fortunately, deep passes are by far the lowest attempted passes by NFL QBs and Allen improved on those in the 2nd half of the season actually connecting on a handful of them.

The odd thing about this is that is two best deep passes (in terms of accuracy) later in the season were both to John Brown in the Denver and NE games. In the Denver game, the ball was right on the money, but the important context is that he was throwing directly into a ~30 mph wind. In the NE game, he got hit hard as he threw it. In almost every instance, such passes end up short. Neither did in this case. 

[Doc Brown]

6 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't understand what all these comparisons to today's or yesterday's proven elite QB are supposed to accomplish.  Yeah you can find similar stats if you look selectively.  You can also find similar stats in QBs who failed to develop and were out of the league (or holding clipboards) after 3-4 years.

 

Allen needs to improve to be our long term QB.  He left makeable plays on the field and some of them would have won games.  He knows this.  We all know this.  He'll either take that step and improve, or he won't.  Only time will tell, time and how badly he wants it/how hard he is willing to work.

He improved as a passer between his rookie season (in which the GM admits his surrounding cast was far from good enough) and his 2nd season.  His completion % improved, his passing TD/INT improved, his YPG, TD% and INT% all improved.  The passer rating grid on NFL next gen stats shows improvement to most areas of the field.  AY/A and ANY/A improved.  Passer rating improved.  These are all things I know from research to be linked to QB performance a team can win with.  He's not quite there, but he's very close.

 

Some people don't know this, but they're just weird, or maybe selective about where they look and in the benchmarks they apply, or they place their trust in secret special sauce statistics, I don't know. 

 

Allen is an outlier as a QB prospect, a "sport" in the genetic sense.  He didn't follow anything close to the usual path for a QB prospect, as far as youth camps and coaches, college recruitment, level of talent around him, level of competition around him.  So various statistical comparisons or formulas developed from years of experience with prospects drawn from those paths probably don't mean too much when applied to him.

 

Even QB from those paths, improve on their own timeline.  Drew Brees, Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers - yeah, what'd HE Look like after his first 3 seasons?.  There are two errors that get made with QB.  One is to hang on for too long to a QB who doesn't really have it.  The other is to move on too soon from a QB who really does. 

I agree but the argument seemed to boil down to a bizarre exercise in comparing Manning and Allen's first two seasons as evidence Allen will greatly improve which seemed odd to me.  So why not play along?  Simply pointing out that Manning's passing yards were higher didn't complete the whole picture because they're different prospects in different offenses.

Edited January 22, 2020 by Doc Brown

[2003Contenders]

56 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

John Brown's best season in the NFL is with Josh Allen as QB. 

 

His 2nd best season was playing with MVP candidate Carson Palmer in 2015 who was also throwing to Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, David Fells and Jermaine Gresham with David Johnson out of the backfield.

 

Cole Beasley's 2nd best season in the NFL is with Josh Allen as QB.

 

His best season was with surprise rookie Dak Prescott, who had his most efficient statistical season while also throwing to Dak Prescott and Jason Witten while handing the ball off to Zeke Elliot.

 

 

If it's the QB and not the WRs, what is it saying that those 2 guys--who were never really considered #1 WRs and were never really expected to perform as such--had career years with Josh Allen at QB?

 

It's the QB, obviously.

 

It's also the Wide Receivers and other offensive weapons, obviously.

 

We need to upgrade our offensive weapons.  Allen needs to work on his game.

 

Both are true.

 

Bingo!

 

[BigBillsFan]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

John Brown's best season in the NFL is with Josh Allen as QB. 

 

His 2nd best season was playing with MVP candidate Carson Palmer in 2015 who was also throwing to Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, David Fells and Jermaine Gresham with David Johnson out of the backfield.

 

Cole Beasley's 2nd best season in the NFL is with Josh Allen as QB.

 

His best season was with surprise rookie Dak Prescott, who had his most efficient statistical season while also throwing to Dak Prescott and Jason Witten while handing the ball off to Zeke Elliot.

 

 

If it's the QB and not the WRs, what is it saying that those 2 guys--who were never really considered #1 WRs and were never really expected to perform as such--had career years with Josh Allen at QB?

 

It's the QB, obviously.

 

It's also the Wide Receivers and other offensive weapons, obviously.

 

We need to upgrade our offensive weapons.  Allen needs to work on his game.

 

Both are true.

 

Oh absolutely I 100% agree with you. To dismiss WR talent is silly.

I just don't like the argument (which you didn't make) that Allen needs insane tools to make the game work. That's true of any QB that if they had world-class weapons it would benefit them.

 

I'm still of the opinion we need to draft a RT in the 1st 2 rounds, a real RT, or pay for one in FA and get a decent RB in the 2-4th rounds and get a dang coach who isn't afraid to run the ball even when they know you're going to run it because you have the scheme, and personnel to take pressure off of Allen and let him grow.

 

I hate the view a QB has to be Manning, or Elway. I think there is more value in having a less heroic QB and a better team. I can't stand we're asking a raw QB to pass 60-70% of the game and running the ball when it makes no sense and developing plays that take 3-4 seconds instead of teaching Allen to take shorter routes and let the game come to him.

 

The Philly game was an abomination, the playoffs were more of the same. I don't like clever ideas, I like intelligent. You don't have to out-smart someone, you just need to out-execute them.

 

If Allen just did dump offs, slants, screens and roll-outs with the occasional bomb I'd be HAPPY with that if we had an identity on offense with this defense. Want to improve accuracy? Make the targets bigger (closer) and then use his athleticism to keep teams honest. Reduce the amount of blitzes and let his mind adjust.

 

I want to see him succeed. I think he can, but he won't be like Montana, he'll be a better version of McNair if he blossoms and I'm more than happy with that and a strong identity on offense.

[BringBackOrton]

4 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Okay, Elite WRs like Deandre Hopkins and Julio Jones make Deshaun Watson and Matt Ryan look better, so can you also acknowledge the only logical counter that a WR corps without DeAndre Hopkins or other Elite WRs that drop more passes by percentage than any other WR corps in the NFL and can't competently accomplish a routine sideline toe drag make a QB look worse?

I’ve watched the Bills WR’s competently catch sideline passes all year. They dropped 7 more passes on the season compared to league average. Those 7 drops negatively affected Josh’s performance, but he needs to be better.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

The odd thing about this is that is two best deep passes (in terms of accuracy) later in the season were both to John Brown in the Denver and NE games. In the Denver game, the ball was right on the money, but the important context is that he was throwing directly into a ~30 mph wind. In the NE game, he got hit hard as he threw it. In almost every instance, such passes end up short. Neither did in this case. 

 

Where do the 30 mph winds come into it?

 

Many deep passes I've seen, including successful deep passes, involve the QB getting hit just after he threw it.  I'd like to understand the source of the info that "in almost every instance, such passes end up short"

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

I’ve watched the Bills WR’s competently catch sideline passes all year. They dropped 7 more passes on the season compared to league average. Those 7 drops negatively affected Josh’s performance, but he needs to be better.

 

Ah.....not sure how you figure the "league average" there, since the guys at the "league average" threw rather different numbers of passes.

It seems to me the proper calculation would be to look at (Allen's drop % - league average drop %) x Allen's number of attempts.

Using the data at pro-football-reference, and calculating an average drop %, that would be (7.2% - 4.9%) x 461 = 10.8, not 7.  That would give Allen a completion % of 61.1%.

 

And yes, he needs to be better.  And yes, there have also been misses on some other "catchable" sideline passes which weren't entirely "circus" lore.

 

 

[Billl]

Dropped passes is a meaningless stat anyway.  23 players dropped 7 or more on the season.  Julian Edelman led league with 13. Others with 7+ include Deebo Samuel, Travis Kelce, Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham, Allen Robinson, Christian McCaffrey, Davanta Adams, DK Metcalf, and Todd Gurley.

 

They aren't meaningless in terms of winning games, but they are statistically irrelevant.

[BringBackOrton]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Ah.....not sure how you figure the "league average" there, since the guys at the "league average" threw rather different numbers of passes.

It seems to me the proper calculation would be to look at (Allen's drop % - league average drop %) x Allen's number of attempts.

Using the data at pro-football-reference, and calculating an average drop %, that would be (7.2% - 4.9%) x 461 = 10.8, not 7.  That would give Allen a completion % of 61.1%.

 

And yes, he needs to be better.  And yes, there have also been misses on some other "catchable" sideline passes which weren't entirely "circus" lore.

 

 

So 10 drops more than average over 16 games. 

[reddogblitz]

16 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

So 10 drops more than average over 16 games. 

 

I remember last year we had the 2:00 drop video that ticked us off.  Does anyone know if there is a similar one for this year?  How long is it?

 

One thing that concerns me is we greatly upgraded our talent at WR.  Yet the drops continue and are still an excuse.

 

I'm starting to wonder what part Josh plays in this if any?  Maybe he throws it too hard?  Not a good spiral?  Throws so many off target that when one hits a WR in the hands they don't know how to react?

 

Some of the other guys with a lot of drops this year were Mike Evans and Kelce.  I have noticed Kelce drops some footballs when watching their games.  Kelce however, has Patrick so if he drops one, Patrick will put the next one on him.  With Josh, said WR or TE may not get another chance with a decent pass.  That could be the difference.

 

If a guy gets a drop, the QB needs to be able to put another good pass in there.  Then he gets the same number of drops, but also more completions.

[dave mcbride]

43 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Where do the 30 mph winds come into it?

 

Many deep passes I've seen, including successful deep passes, involve the QB getting hit just after he threw it.  I'd like to understand the source of the info that "in almost every instance, such passes end up short"

The announcers, if I recall correctly, said that there were gusts of up to 30 mph during the game. That said, I take your point and thanks for the clarification. Regardless, it was windy. The Broncos kicker said it was the hardest environment he has kicked in. https://www.denverpost.com/2019/11/24/brandon-mcmanus-wind-kicking-broncos-bills/

 

Re getting hit, he didn't get hit AFTER he threw it; he was being hit pretty much WHILE he threw it:

.

Edited January 22, 2020 by dave mcbride

[Augie]

41 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Ah.....not sure how you figure the "league average" there, since the guys at the "league average" threw rather different numbers of passes.

It seems to me the proper calculation would be to look at (Allen's drop % - league average drop %) x Allen's number of attempts.

Using the data at pro-football-reference, and calculating an average drop %, that would be (7.2% - 4.9%) x 461 = 10.8, not 7.  That would give Allen a completion % of 61.1%.

 

And yes, he needs to be better.  And yes, there have also been misses on some other "catchable" sideline passes which weren't entirely "circus" lore.

 

 

 

I was told there would be no math! I hope there is no quiz coming!

 

.

40 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

So 10 drops more than average over 16 games. 

 

One drop can decide a game, and in fact may have on some occasions. We’ll never know. I hope Josh plays better, and we learn to look the ball in and hold onto it. 

[BringBackOrton]

29 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

I was told there would be no math! I hope there is no quiz coming!

 

.

 

One drop can decide a game, and in fact may have on some occasions. We’ll never know. I hope Josh plays better, and we learn to look the ball in and hold onto it. 

Oh come on. 

 

The Bills WR’s looked in a couple hundred balls this year. This is the nonsense I’m talking about. 

[Augie]

36 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

Oh come on. 

 

The Bills WR’s looked in a couple hundred balls this year. This is the nonsense I’m talking about. 

 

I’m talking mostly of Knox, who clearly looked to run a few times before he had possession. A couple of those were huge plays in a close game. Maybe you missed that, or maybe it doesn’t play into your narrative. 

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

6 hours ago, Billl said:

His receivers do tend to drop a lot of passes.  Beasley, for example dropped 6 passes this season after dropping only 1 last year.  He also had a catch rate of 63% this season after having a rate of 75% last season.  Did he just forget how to catch, or do some QBs just throw better balls than others?

 

Drew Brees throws accurate passes.  He also throws them with touch and perfect spirals.  His receivers don't drop many balls.

 

Allen throws less accurate passes.  He hasn't mastered touch, and he throws a lot of wobblers.  His receivers drop more balls than other teams.

 

Is there a connection?  I don't know, but it would mane sense that a player catching passes that are consistently perfectly thrown is less likely to drop a ball than a player who is routinely forced to adjust.

 

Again.  Blaming Allen for the actual passes that were tracked as "drops" by the NFL is sheer stupidity.

 

Those are balls that SHOULD have been caught, no matter who is throwing it or how they're throwing it.

 

Allen can be blamed for his bad pass %, not for the balls his WRs drop.

 

Unreal 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

I remember last year we had the 2:00 drop video that ticked us off.  Does anyone know if there is a similar one for this year?  How long is it?

One thing that concerns me is we greatly upgraded our talent at WR.  Yet the drops continue and are still an excuse.

 

Many of the excess drops this year trace to Dawson Knox.  I love the man, but 10 drops on 50 targets is just unacceptable.  Most of his drops were easy catches where he looked upfield before he finished looking the ball in.   That's like 7-8 drops more than league average.

 

That's the majority of the 10.8 "excess drops over league average"  right there.  Zay Jones had 1 drop of 18 targets, Duke Williams had 2 drops on 19.

 

John Brown had an average or expected number of drops on 115 targets and the 2nd best catch % of his career (best was with Carson Palmer), and 2% lower drops than last year with Lamar Jackson/Flacco.

 

Beasley had 1-2 drops over average on his 106 targets (0.8% more than average of 4.9%) which may have to do with expanding his role as a route runner - he was noticeably less comfortable with certain types of throws as opposed to the typical slot-receiver "put it on the numbers or put it in front of me right at the numbers" throws.  And yes, Allen does throw it with more "pepper" than he's used to and since he was rehabbing surgery and only started running routes in training camp, he had less time with Allen to adjust.

 

Quote

I'm starting to wonder what part Josh plays in this if any?  Maybe he throws it too hard?  Not a good spiral?  Throws so many off target that when one hits a WR in the hands they don't know how to react?

 

Frankly this sounds like a bit of agenda, especially this last.  In case you don't listen to Daboll and etc press conference, there's a lot of need for the WR/QB being on the same page in his offense - the WR decides what route variation to run based upon how he reads the DB, and the QB has to read both the DB and the WR's body language.  Even so a certain number of throws will be in a different place than the WR expects and he has to adjust.   That's just being a pro WR.

 

Beasley and Brown are experienced NFL WR who have had several NFL QB throwing to them, and that last is just bonkers.