THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Winning the Fourth Quarter

[Helpmenow]

9 hours ago, Formerly Allan in MD said:

Allen really does need to slide.  He started doing it late last season but needs to be reminded, and reminded.

There goes the season, if he gets hurt by running.

[Ta111]

5 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Disagree that Allen looked like a rookie in the 1st half.

 

That's the easy thing to say if you look at his 4 1st half turnovers, but that's not reality.

 

Reality is 1 turnover by fumble on a dominant drive. Said fumble was a result of a blindside defender being allowed through. And any argument that "Josh should protect the football" is bogus because that's exactly what Allen was trying to do. Defender just, made a great play.

 

1 turnover was on an accurate pass to a normally sure-handed Wide Receiver who bounced the ball up in the air into the waiting arms of a defender ready to run in and score.

 

1 turnover was a bad 4th down snap with a center Allen hasn't really worked with for weeks on a play we probably shouldn't have been going for it.

 

1 turnover was a rushing defender with no one in front of him jumping to make a play to bat the ball.

 

The Bills were dominant in this game. This game was just a game of extremely weird bounces.

 

I'm excited about Allen.

Agreed. The ball bounced really bad for the Bills, but they found a way to win. We batted 5 balls into the air and, while close, we couldn’t get one of them to fall into the arms of one of our defenders.

[Shaw66]

Eliminate a couple of mistakes/bad bounces and that game is 30-10.

[PlayoffsPlease]

Just now, Shaw66 said:

Eliminate a couple of mistakes/bad bounces and that game is 30-10.

Or eliminate a couple of bad kicks the other way and we lost 20-17.
I suspect almost every team every week wins each game if that team is allowed to change the outcome of five plays. 

I am high on Allen.  I am high on the teams chances.   I hope all of our mistakes were flukes and all of our opponents mistakes were typical.  Not clear after only 1 game if I can know that to be true.   

[YattaOkasan]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

I've been excited about Allen since last summer.

 

I saw the game live, without good replays.  Blindside or not, the fumble looked like a ball a rookie loses and a good veteran doesn't.  The fumbled snap looked like Allen backed out early.  The first INT looked like a low throw.  I understand from comments I've seen that Dawkins, Morse and Beasley share the blame, but it didn't look that way live.  

I think a low throw to beasley makes sense.  Low throw is more likely to be caught or just hit the ground.   The popping up of it was totally goofiness.  I have it as a 10% allen (more for speed than placement) 30% Beasley and 60% bad luck play.

[Shaw66]

39 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

Or eliminate a couple of bad kicks the other way and we lost 20-17.
I suspect almost every team every week wins each game if that team is allowed to change the outcome of five plays. 

I am high on Allen.  I am high on the teams chances.   I hope all of our mistakes were flukes and all of our opponents mistakes were typical.  Not clear after only 1 game if I can know that to be true.   

Let the Jets eliminate two plays they wish they didn't make and the Bills eliminate two, and the Bills win, easily.  Give the Jets a field goal and extra point they missed, that adds three points, because they wouldn't have gone for two on the second touchdown.  But give them four.   Take away the pick six and the safety.  Bills win 17-8.  Take away two Bills turnovers and that probably gives them more points.   

 

As others have said, the measure of the Bills control of the game is that they turned it over four time to zero for the Jets (ignore the final play), and the Bills still won.   That means the Bills dominated the play, and the stats support that conclusion. 

32 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

I think a low throw to beasley makes sense.  Low throw is more likely to be caught or just hit the ground.   The popping up of it was totally goofiness.  I have it as a 10% allen (more for speed than placement) 30% Beasley and 60% bad luck play.

That's about right.   It was too low, but not so low that it shouldn't have been caught.  I'm sure Allen is saying it's on him and Beasley is saying it's on him.  

[PlayoffsPlease]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

Let the Jets eliminate two plays they wish they didn't make and the Bills eliminate two, and the Bills win, easily.  Give the Jets a field goal and extra point they missed, that adds three points, because they wouldn't have gone for two on the second touchdown.  But give them four.   Take away the pick six and the safety.  Bills win 17-8.  Take away two Bills turnovers and that probably gives them more points.   

 

As others have said, the measure of the Bills control of the game is that they turned it over four time to zero for the Jets (ignore the final play), and the Bills still won.   That means the Bills dominated the play, and the stats support that conclusion. 

That's about right.   It was too low, but not so low that it shouldn't have been caught.  I'm sure Allen is saying it's on him and Beasley is saying it's on him.  

I feel as though on a purely factual basis, all of the stats add up to exactly a 1 point victory.  But that is just me. 

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

I feel as though on a purely factual basis, all of the stats add up to exactly a 1 point victory.  But that is just me. 

If the Bills don't turn it over, they would have had more yards and more points and more time of possession.  The Jets would have had fewer yards, fewer points and less time of possession.  It was all about the turnovers.  

[GaryPinC]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I've been excited about Allen since last summer.

 

I saw the game live, without good replays.  Blindside or not, the fumble looked like a ball a rookie loses and a good veteran doesn't.  The fumbled snap looked like Allen backed out early.  The first INT looked like a low throw.  I understand from comments I've seen that Dawkins, Morse and Beasley share the blame, but it didn't look that way live.  

Watching the replay, it was low and slightly behind, Beasley quickly knelt and I thought the throw was so fast it bounced off his thigh as he was getting his hands on the ball and that's why it popped up so much.

[CodeMonkey]

It really came down to two things:

1) Mosley going down.  He was killing the Bills all day.  As soon as he went out the Bills ran the ball all the way to a TD.  This, to me, is what decided the game.

2) The Jets FG kicker leaving 4 easy points on the field (a case can be made 3 were due to the holder).

 

Always good to win on opening day against a division rival.  4 turnovers should mean an immediate loss.  But the Bills D kept them in the game and the O was able to capitalize on the injury.  The O still looks to need a fair amount of work.

1 hour ago, GaryPinC said:

Watching the replay, it was low and slightly behind, Beasley quickly knelt and I thought the throw was so fast it bounced off his thigh as he was getting his hands on the ball and that's why it popped up so much.

Allen also delivered it at warp speed.  He was better at that yesterday than he was last year.  But still a work in progress apparently.

[JESSEFEFFER]

14 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

 

“Winning the Fourth Quarter”

 

It’s been a consistent message since Sean McDermott arrived in Buffalo.  The Bills intend to be a team that wins the fourth quarter. 

 

Sunday afternoon, the team they intend to be was on display, as the Bills came all the way back to beat the New York Jets, 17-16.  Trailing 16-0 in the third quarter, and 16-3 as the fourth quarter began, the Bills needed to win the fourth quarter by 14 points.  On the sideline, they looked ready.  It was business as usual, no heads hanging, no finger pointing, no panic.  Just talk about what they had to do next.

 

In the fourth quarter, the Jets ran 16 plays for 35 yards.  The Bills ran 19 plays for 170 yards and two touchdowns.   I’d call that winning the fourth quarter. 

 

It’s hard to say the Bills were the better team, because mistakes matter, but the Bills clearly outplayed the Jets.  The Bills offense was better, and their defense was better.  The Bills had a few ugly plays, including one to give up a touchdown and another resulting in a safety.  Simply ugly.  A couple of Allen fumbles, and a deflected pass for another interception.  Five or six really bad plays made the game close.  

 

After a week, the Bills look a lot like what many fans expected.   Solid defense that features a decent pass rush, gang tackling, and good play in the defensive backfield.  An offense that features a lot of short passes and takes mid-range and deep shots as the opportunities arise.  Less running by Allen, more effective running by the running backs.  

 

Allen looked like a rookie in the first half and like a franchise quarterback in the second.  Maybe we will look back and say that the second half of the Jets game was when he came of age, but I doubt it.   I think we will see more of the rookie in weeks to come.  He still has a lot to learn. 

 

Can we put aside the concerns about Allen’s accuracy?   24 for 37, balls on the money all day long, including some pretty throws along the sideline, and including the back-shoulder TD to Brown to win the game. 

 

How about his poise?  Ran the no huddle beautifully, getting the play called, directing traffic and throwing the ball all over the field.   It was a great performance by Allen, mistakes notwithstanding.  

 

Allen needs to slide.

 

Man, the Bills threw multiple looks at the Jets:  Empty backfields, different wideout packages, three tight ends, DiMarco split wide.  Daboll seems to have free rein to get creative.

 

Some impressions from MetLife Stadium:

 

1.  Ran into Harrison Philips’ mom tailgating before the game.  She was easy to spot in the #99 jerseys she and her friends were wearing.   Very nice lady. 

 

2.   After one of Singletary’s several nice fourth quarter runs, a Jets fan sitting near me said “We can’t stop that guy.”

 

3.  Spotted Terry Pegula on the sideline during warmups before the game.   He was chatting with Chris Johnson, one of the Jets owners, then with some of the Bills personnel on the sideline.   He seems like such a nice guy. 

 

4.  The Jets show The Red Zone on the big screen during most of the game.   It’s great!  They also have cheerleaders, called the Flight Crew.  A woman in front of me was wearing “Flight Crew Mom” tee shirt. 

 

5.  It’s really loud in MetLife, when fans bother to make noise, which is only occasionally.  On the first few plays of the game, noisy   On big third downs, noisy.   The rest of the time, not so much. 

 

6.  Veteran leadership?  After Brown’s touchdown, before the extra point, the defense began gathering on the sideline, preparing to make the last stop.  Kurt Coleman stopped Ed Oliver, got face to face, looked him in the eye and talked to him.   He raised his hands, pointed at his own head, and tapped his temples two or three times, clearly telling Oliver to calm down and use his head.   Coleman knew it was a big moment for a rookie, he knew he wasn’t going to be on the field but he could contribute.  Cool. 

 

7.  I miss Shady.  And Singletary was giving me a lot of reason to miss him in the first half.  Second half?   Oh, yeah!  Sweet moves. 

 

8.  Bills’ defense sat at the right end of the bench, right in front of me.  Saw

 

a.  Lawson dancing on the sideline to music piped into the stadium, chatting briefly with a couple of young women in the stands in front of me.  Only guy I saw not focused on the game.

 

b.  Lorenzo Alexander talking about something they needed to do.  All business.

 

c.  Ed Oliver energized.   He was amped.

 

d.  Hyde up and down the bench getting every one ready as the Bills were driving for the winning score. 

 

9.  You know how several players on kickoff coverage complete the run by trotting into the endzone on a touchback?  No Maurice Alexander.   He SPRINTS to the end zone.  The guy wants to be out there.

 

10.  Tremaine Edmunds is a big man, and yes, he’s a lot better against the run this season. 

 

(11.  He isn’t a Bill, but LeVeon Bell deserves a nod.  That guy is a football player.  The Bills had their hands full but kept him under control, mostly.)

 

It was too close, but there’s a “1” in the Win column, and on the first Sunday night of the season, that’s all that matters.  It’s only one game, but we saw a lot to like against the Jets.  And the Bills will get better.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

 

 

 

The first half turnovers were not evidence of bad QB play to me.  The strip/sack/fumble was the result of a whiff by Dawkins and Josh deciding to protect himself/the ball with a stiff arm.  That is instinctual, he has an effective one and has probably thinking stiff arm, pivot and escape but usng his free hand to cover the ball when he is not on the move and so vulnerable would be the better play.

 

When going late to an underneath receiver on a hook route, a low throw is usually a safer option to get 5 yards and protects the receiver from a big hit.  The ball getting tipped up instead of down is not a normal outcome.

 

The bad snap exchange looks bad as a 4th down play, it was no different than a failed sneak.  Fumble or turnover on downs is not of much consequence other than the ugly factor.  It looked like Morse was going to have trouble with Q. Williams anyhow.

 

The one tipped pass which resulted in an int is the only time Josh seemed confused after the play but the TV shot of him staring off with a dazed look was actually him looking for the replay on the Jumbotron to see why the play failed.  I think the Bills D tipped 6 passes but w/o an int.  They were credited with 5 pbu's but one of the tips was completed to an o-lineman which maybe means it can't be credited as a pbu.  Over the years I have come to believe that what happens after a tipped ball is totally random.   So that was one tipped ball by the Jets converted to an int and six by the Bills but with no turnover.  That all seems rather random to me.

 

So, at halftime, my comments on the first half were that despite the somewhat disastrous plays, the score was not a disaster, the Bills looked like the better team and that they had a good chance in the second half.

 

 

 

 

Edited September 9, 2019 by JESSEFEFFER

[ChevyVanMiller]

14 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

 

“Winning the Fourth Quarter”

 

It’s been a consistent message since Sean McDermott arrived in Buffalo.  The Bills intend to be a team that wins the fourth quarter. 

 

Sunday afternoon, the team they intend to be was on display, as the Bills came all the way back to beat the New York Jets, 17-16.  Trailing 16-0 in the third quarter, and 16-3 as the fourth quarter began, the Bills needed to win the fourth quarter by 14 points.  On the sideline, they looked ready.  It was business as usual, no heads hanging, no finger pointing, no panic.  Just talk about what they had to do next.

 

In the fourth quarter, the Jets ran 16 plays for 35 yards.  The Bills ran 19 plays for 170 yards and two touchdowns.   I’d call that winning the fourth quarter. 

 

It’s hard to say the Bills were the better team, because mistakes matter, but the Bills clearly outplayed the Jets.  The Bills offense was better, and their defense was better.  The Bills had a few ugly plays, including one to give up a touchdown and another resulting in a safety.  Simply ugly.  A couple of Allen fumbles, and a deflected pass for another interception.  Five or six really bad plays made the game close.  

 

After a week, the Bills look a lot like what many fans expected.   Solid defense that features a decent pass rush, gang tackling, and good play in the defensive backfield.  An offense that features a lot of short passes and takes mid-range and deep shots as the opportunities arise.  Less running by Allen, more effective running by the running backs.  

 

Allen looked like a rookie in the first half and like a franchise quarterback in the second.  Maybe we will look back and say that the second half of the Jets game was when he came of age, but I doubt it.   I think we will see more of the rookie in weeks to come.  He still has a lot to learn. 

 

Can we put aside the concerns about Allen’s accuracy?   24 for 37, balls on the money all day long, including some pretty throws along the sideline, and including the back-shoulder TD to Brown to win the game. 

 

How about his poise?  Ran the no huddle beautifully, getting the play called, directing traffic and throwing the ball all over the field.   It was a great performance by Allen, mistakes notwithstanding.  

 

Allen needs to slide.

 

Man, the Bills threw multiple looks at the Jets:  Empty backfields, different wideout packages, three tight ends, DiMarco split wide.  Daboll seems to have free rein to get creative.

 

Some impressions from MetLife Stadium:

 

1.  Ran into Harrison Philips’ mom tailgating before the game.  She was easy to spot in the #99 jerseys she and her friends were wearing.   Very nice lady. 

 

2.   After one of Singletary’s several nice fourth quarter runs, a Jets fan sitting near me said “We can’t stop that guy.”

 

3.  Spotted Terry Pegula on the sideline during warmups before the game.   He was chatting with Chris Johnson, one of the Jets owners, then with some of the Bills personnel on the sideline.   He seems like such a nice guy. 

 

4.  The Jets show The Red Zone on the big screen during most of the game.   It’s great!  They also have cheerleaders, called the Flight Crew.  A woman in front of me was wearing “Flight Crew Mom” tee shirt. 

 

5.  It’s really loud in MetLife, when fans bother to make noise, which is only occasionally.  On the first few plays of the game, noisy   On big third downs, noisy.   The rest of the time, not so much. 

 

6.  Veteran leadership?  After Brown’s touchdown, before the extra point, the defense began gathering on the sideline, preparing to make the last stop.  Kurt Coleman stopped Ed Oliver, got face to face, looked him in the eye and talked to him.   He raised his hands, pointed at his own head, and tapped his temples two or three times, clearly telling Oliver to calm down and use his head.   Coleman knew it was a big moment for a rookie, he knew he wasn’t going to be on the field but he could contribute.  Cool. 

 

7.  I miss Shady.  And Singletary was giving me a lot of reason to miss him in the first half.  Second half?   Oh, yeah!  Sweet moves. 

 

8.  Bills’ defense sat at the right end of the bench, right in front of me.  Saw

 

a.  Lawson dancing on the sideline to music piped into the stadium, chatting briefly with a couple of young women in the stands in front of me.  Only guy I saw not focused on the game.

 

b.  Lorenzo Alexander talking about something they needed to do.  All business.

 

c.  Ed Oliver energized.   He was amped.

 

d.  Hyde up and down the bench getting every one ready as the Bills were driving for the winning score. 

 

9.  You know how several players on kickoff coverage complete the run by trotting into the endzone on a touchback?  No Maurice Alexander.   He SPRINTS to the end zone.  The guy wants to be out there.

 

10.  Tremaine Edmunds is a big man, and yes, he’s a lot better against the run this season. 

 

(11.  He isn’t a Bill, but LeVeon Bell deserves a nod.  That guy is a football player.  The Bills had their hands full but kept him under control, mostly.)

 

It was too close, but there’s a “1” in the Win column, and on the first Sunday night of the season, that’s all that matters.  It’s only one game, but we saw a lot to like against the Jets.  And the Bills will get better.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

 

Nice observations, thanks.

One note: If Shaq was the only one not focused on the game I hope he keeps chatting up hotties in the stands because he was a beast on the field yesterday.

[RiotAct]

Nice writeup.  I especially like the reports on the Bills players and what they’re up to on the sidelines... interesting stuff.

 

You going to the Giants game?

[Ta111]

Most games come down to 4th quarter play. If you dominate the 4th quarter you will win most games. Really good to see the Bills dominate on both sides of the ball.

[mannc]

5 hours ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

Incomplete Week 1 AFC power rankings. 

 

1. Patriots

2. Everyone else but the Dolphins and Jets
31. Jets

32. Dolphins.

or sadly this may be closer

 

1. Patriots

30. Everyone else but Dolphins and Jets
31. Jets

32. Dolphins.

 

Wait till you see the Raiders tonight...THAT is going to be a dumpster ?.

[PlayoffsPlease]

8 minutes ago, mannc said:

Wait till you see the Raiders tonight...THAT is going to be a dumpster ?.

Based on week 1, all that I know is the Bills are better than the Jets.  The Bills could very well be the best team in football and the Jets the second best.  But currently that is not my perception. 

[mannc]

5 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

Based on week 1, all that I know is the Bills are better than the Jets.  The Bills could very well be the best team in football and the Jets the second best.  But currently that is not my perception. 

Every year, teams that suck in week 1 end up making the playoffs and teams that dominate in week 1 end up sitting home.  But it's still fun to overreact! 

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, GaryPinC said:

Watching the replay, it was low and slightly behind, Beasley quickly knelt and I thought the throw was so fast it bounced off his thigh as he was getting his hands on the ball and that's why it popped up so much.

That's about what I guessed watching the replay in the stadium, but it was hard to see.  Remember Beasley commented last week about how he and Allen have been working to get Allen to deliver that ball with a little less pace.  Beasley said something like the ball was getting on him to fast, and they were working to get Beasley used to the speed and get Allen to dial it back a bit.   He didn't say all of that, but that was the gist of what he said.  If that's what happened yesterday, then it's on both of them for not having gotten that play working smoothly yet.  

 

Thanks.  

[ILBillsfan]

There are games like this that have no explanation when for three quarters you can say the ball did not bounce out way.

 

the Bills defense had batted balls and chances for turnovers that didn’t happen whereas every bounce seemed to go the Bills way.

 

Then the ball stopped bouncing around in the fourth quarter and the Bills absolutely crushes the Jets in the 4th quarter.

 

i see a ton of positives in this game and can’t wait to see how this team grows thru the season.

 

Bills fans have a lot to look forward to this year imo.

 

Go Bills!!!!

[Rockinon]

5 hours ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

Incomplete Week 1 AFC power rankings. 

 

1. Patriots

2. Everyone else but the Dolphins and Jets
31. Jets

32. Dolphins.

or sadly this may be closer

 

1. Patriots

30. Everyone else but Dolphins and Jets
31. Jets

32. Dolphins.

 

I like this one better.

 

Standings

1. Buffalo Bills (1-0, 1-0 in AFC East)
2. New England Patriots (1-0)
3. Miami Dolphins (0-1)
4. New York Jets (0-1, 0-1 AFC East)