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Updating the Buffalo Bills’ salary-cap space now that everyone is under contract

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Posted (edited)

Updating the Buffalo Bills’ salary-cap space now that everyone is under contract

 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2019/6/18/18683013/updating-the-buffalo-bills-salary-cap-space-now-that-everyone-is-under-contract
 

It wasn’t that long ago when it felt like the Buffalo Bills had all the money in the world to burn. Heading into free agency with a cool $67 million to spend led to a lot of excitement (and new faces in the locker room). After a bit of a spending spree, much of that money was used, leaving the Bills with a bit shy of $26 million back in March.

 

As of right now, the Bills’ top-51 players are on the books for a touch under $178 million. With rollover and a bunch of fancy math, Buffalo’s effective cap space is just north of $200 million. This leaves the Bills with $22.5 million in cap space, good for 13th in the NFL. This includes most of the 2019 draft class, whose numbers have been reported. 

 

Dawson Knox, who recently signed his contract, would be projected to just barely crack the top 51. With a projected $685,000, Knox would bump Jeremiah Sirles’s $645,000 out of the top 51. That’s a difference of $40,000. 

 

...

 

A takeaway that can’t be stressed enough is that the Buffalo Bills are in a comfortable spot as of right now. There’s money to use if a player who fits into the process is available—even if that player commands top dollar. Alternatively, a nice little boost for next year wouldn’t be unwise either. Buffalo has options, and that’s not a bad thing at all.

Edited by ShadyBillsFan
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So THIS is what professional and responsible cap management looks like?!?

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17 minutes ago, aceman_16 said:

So THIS is what professional and responsible cap management looks like?!?

This ^^^^

Have to give McBean a lot of credit here , he had to make some tough decisions letting a lot of ( IMO ) talent go ,  of course It’s yet to be determined if all the moves he made will lead us to the promise land , BUT it sure feels like we’re on the right path , 

Go Bills baby !!!!!

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Thanks Shady.

 

According to Spotrac, the Bills have approximately $143M committed to 58 player contracts in 2020.  Assuming that the cap rises to ~$200M, and the Bills end up rolling over $15M of their $22M in cap space from 2019, that would place Buffalo's team cap limit at $215M, leaving them $72M in cap space for 2020. Knock off $10M each for 2020 rookies and 2020 in-season management, and you're looking at $52M in contracts that they can dole out in FA where the group of pass rushers and WRs looks to be very, very good.

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8 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Thanks Shady.

 

According to Spotrac, the Bills have approximately $143M committed to 58 player contracts in 2020.  Assuming that the cap rises to ~$200M, and the Bills end up rolling over $15M of their $22M in cap space from 2019, that would place Buffalo's team cap limit at $215M, leaving them $72M in cap space for 2020. Knock off $10M each for 2020 rookies and 2020 in-season management, and you're looking at $52M in contracts that they can dole out in FA where the group of pass rushers and WRs looks to be very, very good.

 

the issue right now is how to properly "eliminate" the 37 camp cap hits?  (which are still on the 2020 cap page), but yeah  I agree with your assessment,  

 

Sporrac doesn't have Knox's #s up yet but you can factor that in with the #'s above.

2019 Est. Cap Space (Top 51): $22,467,873

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/


 

the 2020 Est. Cap Space (Top 51* don't "exist" yet in reality.) 

Est. Cap Space:    $45,096,360

 

 

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Now it's time as the start of our "window" to bring the hay into the barn with all that $$, while Josh is still signed up to a team-friendly rookie deal. We are well on our way though, imho. Great find, Shady! 

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Posted (edited)

Ummm....don't forget that 34 of the 90 guys on the team now will be free agents next year. Sure, some will not be among the final 53, but many will. Restricted free agents in 2020 include Levi Wallace and Robert Foster, while UFA's include Jordan Phillips, Spencer Long, Lorax, Kevin Johnson, Hauschka, Shaq Lawson, Quinton Spain, and LaAdrian Waddle, among others. And key players to try and lock-up before their 2020 contract year include Tre White, Matt Milano, Jordan Poyer, Dion Dawkins and maybe Zay Jones.

 

Given the need to extend/re-sign some of the above, and fill the shoes of those leaving with comparable talent, smart spending remains the order of the day. We are in decent shape, but over the top spending would land us right back where we were, and I don't see any way that this regime will let that happen.

Edited by bourbonboy
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2 hours ago, aceman_16 said:

So THIS is what professional and responsible cap management looks like?!?

If you call putting out an offense that is marginally better then a middle school in northern Canada, then yes.

 

Only thing on last years offense and special teams that looked like they have any potential was Allen, and to a lesser degree Foster/Jones/Dawkins/Hauschka, although if Bills ever get to Super Bowl contention status it is very likely they upgraded Foster/Jones/Dawkins and Hauschka ages out.

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Posted (edited)

Two other factors to this year's cap:

 

1. Players currently "below the line" of the 51 with cap hits of between $490k (Duke Williams) and $641k (Siran Neal) that have a chance to make the roster:

    Virtual locks (4): Robert Foster, Levi Wallace, V. Joseph, a punter

    Pretty good chance 3: S. Neal, J. Johnson, W. Teller

    Could make it (3):Tommy Sweeney, D. Johnson, D. Williams

 

2. That means to get to 53, 4-8 players "above the line" of 51 would get cut. Possibles with cap hit (net of dead money):

     Most likely to go with big $:  Bodine $2.3M, Ducasse $2.0M 

     On the bubble: Waddle $1.6M, Stanford $1.3M, 

     In trouble but cheap: Sirles, R. Thomas, Rice, Pitts, Murphy, Harold, Perry (between $645-735k

     Also not certain: Bush $1,5M

 

So there could be a net pick up of $3-4 million based on cuts. 

Edited by jwhit34

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Posted (edited)

And $45 mill free next year, before this year's unspent money gets rolled over and added in. 9th in the league.

 

They're simply smarter in terms of approach and procedures than a Bills regime has been in a long long time.

 

That doesn't guarantee success, but it's the best way to start to maximize your chances.

Edited by Thurman#1
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9 minutes ago, cba fan said:

... if Bills ever get to Super Bowl contention status it is very likely they upgraded ... Hauschka ages out.

 

Serious question: what's your problem with Hauschka?

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2 hours ago, aceman_16 said:

So THIS is what professional and responsible cap management looks like?!?

 

10 minutes ago, cba fan said:

If you call putting out an offense that is marginally better then a middle school in northern Canada, then yes.

 

Only thing on last years offense and special teams that looked like they have any potential was Allen, and to a lesser degree Foster/Jones/Dawkins/Hauschka, although if Bills ever get to Super Bowl contention status it is very likely they upgraded Foster/Jones/Dawkins and Hauschka ages out.

 

 

Last year they were still getting out of the cap morass Whaley left them in. Yes, the offense was bad. Largely because they spent almost nothing on it in FA. Not to mention cutting/trading a whole bunch of guys whose salaries would have clogged things up for years while simultaneously bringing in draft capital allowing them to move up to get Josh Allen.

 

Yes, the offense was bad last year. This year they are in good cap shape and so they addressed that offence.

 

So yes, this is indeed what professional and responsible cap management looks like in a rebuild. Suffer for a couple of years. Clear space. Handle the space intelligently so that you can fill the most massive gaps and yet leave yourself a bunch of space the next year.

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32 minutes ago, cba fan said:

If you call putting out an offense that is marginally better then a middle school in northern Canada, then yes.

 

Only thing on last years offense and special teams that looked like they have any potential was Allen, and to a lesser degree Foster/Jones/Dawkins/Hauschka, although if Bills ever get to Super Bowl contention status it is very likely they upgraded Foster/Jones/Dawkins and Hauschka ages out.

I THINK these numbers are from THIS year after sacrificing last year. However, keep your narrative.

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Save some cap for next year.... Don't just spend it because we have it.  That is how to get in trouble. 

 

We are finally being smarter... it will pay off. There is no quick fix here.  The damage to the this team took a long time to build up to this point.  it will take a long time to fix. 

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1 minute ago, John from Riverside said:

So they can roll that over into that already insane amount of cap space we have NEXT year?

as long as they meet the leagues 90% spending allowance,  whats left over gets rolled over.  

 

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1 minute ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

as long as they meet the leagues 90% spending allowance,  whats left over gets rolled over.  

 

This is what good cap management looks like....we even managed to extend Hughes.....we didnt have to cut anyone for cap reasons....

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9 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

as long as they meet the leagues 90% spending allowance,  whats left over gets rolled over.  

 

 

Remember that the cash floor is not calculated until the end of the 2020 season.

I see no problem with the Bills achieving that.

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2 hours ago, bourbonboy said:

Ummm....don't forget that 34 of the 90 guys on the team now will be free agents next year. Sure, some will not be among the final 53, but many will. Restricted free agents in 2020 include Levi Wallace and Robert Foster, while UFA's include Jordan Phillips, Spencer Long, Lorax, Kevin Johnson, Hauschka, Shaq Lawson, Quinton Spain, and LaAdrian Waddle, among others. And key players to try and lock-up before their 2020 contract year include Tre White, Matt Milano, Jordan Poyer, Dion Dawkins and maybe Zay Jones.

 

Given the need to extend/re-sign some of the above, and fill the shoes of those leaving with comparable talent, smart spending remains the order of the day. We are in decent shape, but over the top spending would land us right back where we were, and I don't see any way that this regime will let that happen.

 

It's never too early to start identifying players for long-term, cap-friendly deals. 

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3 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

Thanks Shady.

 

According to Spotrac, the Bills have approximately $143M committed to 58 player contracts in 2020.  Assuming that the cap rises to ~$200M, and the Bills end up rolling over $15M of their $22M in cap space from 2019, that would place Buffalo's team cap limit at $215M, leaving them $72M in cap space for 2020. Knock off $10M each for 2020 rookies and 2020 in-season management, and you're looking at $52M in contracts that they can dole out in FA where the group of pass rushers and WRs looks to be very, very good.

We need to save some for the future.  We sign our own.

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22 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

We need to save some for the future.  We sign our own.

 

The cap goes up between 10 and 12 million every year, which easily takes care of draft picks.  As long as a team can ensure that they have 30 million or so going into the offseason, they can almost always afford one huge extension for their own and one solid FA contract.

 

And that's without paying any attention to adjusting current deals.

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What's going to be interesting is to see how they spend next year.  They have to be careful not to sign lengthy contracts that will be needed for Allen in 3 years that will likely be north of $40 mil per. 

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No, I'm pretty certain your math is off because the Lotulelei contract is absurd and completely destroys the Bills' cap.

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