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Hapless Bills Fan

Expectations for Josh Allen this year

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't know how to say this without accusations of being a "Downer" fan, so I'll just put it out there:

 

-IF you're correct that Josh Allen will always struggle with quick decisions and hitting the check-down guy in stride, then he is never going to develop into the consistent winning franchise QB all Bills fans yearn for.

-The years that the Panthers have been most successful with Cam Newton, are the years Newton has been more successful at spreading the ball around to multiple targets and stacking up 11-12 YPC from 4-5 receivers instead of 1-2 receivers with >1000 yd seasons and 16-17 ypc.

-I think the Bills do see some Cam Newton in Allen, but I think they regard him as a version of Newton with less passing talent out of the box, but over the long term more cerebral and coachable.

 

I don’t mean to call him dumb either. I’m sure he’s a smart kid. He just doesn’t have hardwired football instincts like some of these guys who have been life and death with the game since they were kids. He’s behind the curve.

 

I can’t see any reason why Josh won’t have multiple receivers go off in a game on a consistent basis. He did that later in the season last year. It just takes him longer to find the open guy because he wants them to really get open so he can gun it in as appose to having to lead the receiver as much and risk behind inaccurate (my working theory). He’ll get better at that too. But it’s that extra second he takes in the pocket to figure out where/how to throw that’s going to determine a lot of his career. Bet he can shave at least half of it off in the next few years, and for him given all his other gifts that might be enough.

Edited by VW82

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1 hour ago, billsfan1959 said:

I think Allen will learn to take the shorter routes more often; however, I believe he will always look to make the big play first. That just seems to be his mentality and, honestly, that's the kind of QB I want. My guess is that he will improve his completion %, but, he will likely stay in that 58 - 60% range. I am fine with that and I think he can be very successful in that range. Cam Newton was the MVP with a 59.8 completion percentage. 

 

I think it is more important that he have a TD% of 5+ and an INT% of under 3.

me too. i'm excited! brown and foster on the outside should be a show.   the cool thing is josh has such a fast ball that he can throw deep and the dbs won't have the time to adjust and break on the ball.  like somone else said, i haven't been this excited since 1987.

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10 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

I don’t mean to call him dumb either. I’m sure he’s a smart kid. He just doesn’t have hardwired football instincts like some of these guys who have been life and death with the game since they were kids. He’s behind the curve.

 

I can’t see any reason why Josh won’t have multiple receivers go off in a game on a consistent basis. He did that later in the season last year. It just takes him longer to find the open guy because he wants them to really get open so he can gun it in as appose to having to lead the receiver as much and risk behind inaccurate (my working theory). He’ll get better at that too. But it’s that extra second he takes in the pocket to figure out where/how to throw that’s going to determine a lot of his career. Bet he can shave at least half of it off in the next few years, and for him given all his other gifts that might be enough.

keep in mind that he was a rookie and trying to find jones/clay and foster.  look at what he has this year. they've covered the bases.

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Numbers wise?

 

Completion percentage around 59%

3,200 yards
19 TDs

15 INTs

 

500 yards rushing

10 TDs


Bills have 11-5 record.

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2 hours ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

Gregg, everyone is entitle to their opinion, but just to be clear what I am extrapolating from the above is that other than an uptick in completion percentage after an end to 2018 that saw improvement and the Bills revamping about 7 positions around Josh on offense you truly expect him to be a worse QB than he was last year?

 

Not only that he hasn't grown from year one to year two, but that he actually regresses from a .833 TD/Int ration to .667?

 

 

It's entirely within the realm of possibility that that could happen.  It might not necessarily be reflected in his stats -- or even in the Bills record -- if the Bills' potential offensive improvement on the OL, running game, and receiving corps materializes but Allen has to improve his passing and his decision making regardless of whether or not his supporting cast is good or not.  The quality of play that's acceptable, even encouraging, in a rookie shouldn't still be the norm for a QB at the end of his second season as the starting QB.   If Allen isn't significantly better as a QB in December than he was in September -- even if his September was better than his rookie December -- that will be real cause for concern.  

 

NFL QBs tend to get better as they gain experience, but at some point, they hit a proverbial wall that defines the upwards limits of their ability.  "Busts" hit that wall early on, but most QBs get at least somewhat better in their second and third years as starters,  The better the QB, the longer they take to reach that limit.    QBs like P Manning, Brady, and Brees seem to never hit that wall.

 

14 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

I don’t mean to call him dumb either. I’m sure he’s a smart kid. He just doesn’t have hardwired football instincts like some of these guys who have been life and death with the game since they were kids. He’s behind the curve.

 

I can’t see any reason why Josh won’t have multiple receivers go off in a game on a consistent basis. He did that later in the season last year. It just takes him longer to find the open guy because he wants them to really get open so he can gun it in as appose to having to lead the receiver as much and risk behind inaccurate (my working theory). He’ll get better at that too. But it’s that extra second he takes in the pocket to figure out where/how to throw that’s going to determine a lot of his career. Bet he can shave at least half of it off in the next few years, and for him given all his other gifts that might be enough.

 

I certainly hope you are wrong, VW82, because if you're right, then Allen will be another first round QB bust.   In order to be a genuine franchise QB, one who is elite or close to it, a QB has to absolutely possess "hardwired football instincts" that enable him to almost instantly recognize and process what he sees into action --  appropriate action (ie, a good choice).   The closer to the ideal Allen can come, the better QB he will be.  If he can't recognize and process what he sees on the field fast enough, he's just a Trent Edwards,  an EJ Manuel or a Tyrod Taylor.

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1 hour ago, billsfan1959 said:

I think Allen will learn to take the shorter routes more often; however, I believe he will always look to make the big play first. That just seems to be his mentality and, honestly, that's the kind of QB I want. My guess is that he will improve his completion %, but, he will likely stay in that 58 - 60% range. I am fine with that and I think he can be very successful in that range. Cam Newton was the MVP with a 59.8 completion percentage. 

 

I think it is more important that he have a TD% of 5+ and an INT% of under 3.

That's generally where I see things from an optimistic perspective. I guess I'll put it this way. I'm not convinced he's ever going to master the checkdown/short game craft. In a perfect world, that happens.

 

What I'm trying to figure out is how Allen can be successful if he only improves marginally in that area. There is definitely a chance with him. The skills he does bring to the table(arm strength/mobility) are ELITE. So can he be a franchise QB WITHOUT becoming super efficient? I think the answer is yes and Newton is a great example. As much as I critique the kid, there is no questioning his desire. So can that desire also set him apart from other super talented guys that didn't have the GREATEST short game? These are the questions that will start to be answered in 2019.

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either....individual stats wise cracks Top 15 in Total QBR  (which factors in his legs)

 

or gets the bills team wise to something over .500  like 9-7

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Completion Percentage in the Mid to high 60 % 
3500 to 4000 yards in the AIR

25 - 30 TD's  Passing

10 - 15 INT's most of those at the end of the first Half of games - (No INT in the PLAYOFFS!)

 

400 Rushing Yards

10 Rushing TD's

 

Sacked 15 - 20 times. (None in the playoffs)

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I don't see why Allen couldn't get 20 passing TD's and 3,500 yards passing. Hopefully he keeps his INT's down. I imagine his completion percentage will improve and be around 60%. I think this is realistic.

 

Of course he'll also contribute on the ground. I bet he'll have 500+ rushing yards and 5+ rushing TD's.

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15 hours ago, Bangarang said:

3,300 yards, 16 td and 12 int on a 56% completion percentage is trash and likely means our offense is also trash yet again.

 

Fortunately, I think he’ll perform better than that. 

4,000 yards passing, 400 out of JA on the ground, 20 TD’s, 10 picks, 60 percent completion is where I would like to see things at- realistically I doubt it thou.

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2 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

I would love to see the overall yardage numbers push 220 or so a game and also don't think it's necessary for Allen to be a 60+percent passer. The overall yardage numbers reaching NFL levels would feel like progress. If he's taking shots and making plays, the YP/A will alleviate some of the efficiency issues. 

 

When I think about progress for Allen, I think overall production is gonna be the barometer. I wouldn't feel great going forward if there were multiple <200 yard passing games. The way the team is constructed, they could probably win 8 or even 9 games without Allen taking that leap. It just wouldn't feel like "success."

 

Line is better, receivers are not great but improved, and he's got a year of experience. I agree that we're gonna find out what we've got with Allen in 2019. It's not the be all end all, but the 2nd year is extremely important in terms of figuring out if you've got a talented QB or a great QB.

 

26 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

That's generally where I see things from an optimistic perspective. I guess I'll put it this way. I'm not convinced he's ever going to master the checkdown/short game craft. In a perfect world, that happens.

 

What I'm trying to figure out is how Allen can be successful if he only improves marginally in that area. There is definitely a chance with him. The skills he does bring to the table(arm strength/mobility) are ELITE. So can he be a franchise QB WITHOUT becoming super efficient? I think the answer is yes and Newton is a great example. As much as I critique the kid, there is no questioning his desire. So can that desire also set him apart from other super talented guys that didn't have the GREATEST short game? These are the questions that will start to be answered in 2019.

Agree. The improvements they made on offense are designed to play to his strengths. He should have a better play action game, more time to make those intermediate throws, better speed, athleticism and reliability at the receiver positions, rely less on his legs, and he shouldn't have to carry most of the offensive burden. I would be very disappointed if he averaged less than 220 yards per game, and didn't improve his completion %, TD%, and INT%.

 

I don't think the short game is ever going to be his strength either. The question will be, "Can he master it enough (1) to know those moments when it is most advantageous / critical to take those short throws, (2) to complement his skill set, and (3) to take him to that true franchise level.

 

It will be a telling year.

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I would just like to see our running backs and pass catcher's scoring the touchdowns......yes...Josh Allen can do it and its a weapon.....but EVERY time he takes off and defenders close in on him I hold my breath because so much relies on him......yes we have a veteran QB behind him but lets be honest....we REALLY dont want to see Barkely for more then a few games a season......the team goes as Josh Allen goes

 

He has a cannon - let him use it

 

We have brought in blockers.....LET THEM BLOCK

 

we have invested in the offensive talent of this team overall.....lets use it.

 

And when nothing is open and everything is taken away....let him scamper for 1st downs to keep the offense on the field

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1 hour ago, VW82 said:

 

I don’t mean to call him dumb either. I’m sure he’s a smart kid. He just doesn’t have hardwired football instincts like some of these guys who have been life and death with the game since they were kids. He’s behind the curve.

 

I can’t see any reason why Josh won’t have multiple receivers go off in a game on a consistent basis. He did that later in the season last year. It just takes him longer to find the open guy because he wants them to really get open so he can gun it in as appose to having to lead the receiver as much and risk behind inaccurate (my working theory). He’ll get better at that too. But it’s that extra second he takes in the pocket to figure out where/how to throw that’s going to determine a lot of his career. Bet he can shave at least half of it off in the next few years, and for him given all his other gifts that might be enough.

I really dont agree with this assessment. I didn't see anything that suggested to me that he doesn't have the right hard wired instincts.

 

First, he moves well in the pocket.  Good pocket awareness. Good sense of when to bail out.  

 

Second, when he scrambles, he finds open receivers well.

 

Third, his comfort level in the huddle and at the line was high from the day he took the field.  He doesn't get rattled. 

 

He played last year behind a horrible line with pretty poor receivers, with out having had in depth practice e in training camp, and he still looked like a winner.  

 

Watching him last season, I often thought that he can be every bit as spectacular as Mahomes.  Different style, but just as spectacular. 

 

Nothing wrong with his instincts. 

8 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

 

I don't think the short game is ever going to be his strength.

I think he is going to surprise you

 

I think he is going to be terrific in the short game, which is what is going to make him a star.  Once he is effective in the short game, he is absolutely going to kill teams with moderate range and deep balls, because he will see a lot of open guys down the field. 

 

Beasley alone will catch 80 passes.  

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15 hours ago, mead107 said:

19-0 Baby 

You spelt 19-0 or Bust incorrectly 

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I want to see evidence that the game is slowing down for him such that he makes quicker, definitive decisions with the ball.  Evidence of that for me will be a decreased number of runs and decreased number of sacks, which speak to him not trusting what he saw and either bailing out a nd running more quickly or staying too long in the pocket to try and make something happen.  I'd like to see more short throws to his safety valve guys, and let them gain YAC.  I won't put specific numbers up in a vacuum without knowing what's in Daboll's head, but in general a 2:1 completion/interception ratio would be good.  Obviously everyone would like to see a high completion rate, etc. 

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1 hour ago, SoTier said:

 

I certainly hope you are wrong, VW82, because if you're right, then Allen will be another first round QB bust.   In order to be a genuine franchise QB, one who is elite or close to it, a QB has to absolutely possess "hardwired football instincts" that enable him to almost instantly recognize and process what he sees into action --  appropriate action (ie, a good choice).   The closer to the ideal Allen can come, the better QB he will be.  If he can't recognize and process what he sees on the field fast enough, he's just a Trent Edwards,  an EJ Manuel or a Tyrod Taylor.

 

 

I think you can still be a star QB even if your decision making and timing is a little suspect. We've seen Vick do it. Favre was the best player in the world for a couple years. Cam was MVP. Allen has escape-ability + a crazy arm combo that few others have ever possessed. 

 

Again, I'm not saying he can't improve with his pre-snap reads, and making quick, correct decisions with the football; but right now he isn't anywhere near that type of QB (to be realistic). It would seem like a tough ask for him to become something he's not. I think it's a perfectly fair ask of him to continue making explosive plays with his god given ability and improved throwing mechanics. Eventually, he'll gain enough experience to hard wire in more of those "football instincts" (i.e. quick decisions) and won't be as reliant on his natural gifts.    

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I really dont agree with this assessment. I didn't see anything that suggested to me that he doesn't have the right hard wired instincts...

 

 

I just meant he doesn't diagnose the play quickly/correctly enough and get the ball out. His story about being a normal farm kid who played lots of sports and had other responsibilities totally fits. Compare that to other players who enter the league having spent most of their physical and mental energy throughout childhood playing and thinking about football, playing Madden, etc. So Allen is a little behind from that stand point and it shows on the field. Watch Baker, then watch Allen. 

 

Josh will get better at that stuff though with more reps, and in the meantime his physical gifts are special and will keep us in or win us a bunch of games. The extra offensive talent around him will help tremendously.  

Edited by VW82
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31 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think he is going to surprise you

 

I think he is going to be terrific in the short game, which is what is going to make him a star.  Once he is effective in the short game, he is absolutely going to kill teams with moderate range and deep balls, because he will see a lot of open guys down the field. 

 

Beasley alone will catch 80 passes.  

It is not that I believe he doesn't have the ability to be very effective in the short game. When I say it will never be his strength, I am referring to the fact that the 15-25 yd range is where his strength will be. I agree if he becomes very effective in the short game, it will make his real strengths that much better.

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

I just meant he doesn't diagnose the play quickly/correctly enough and get the ball out. His story about being a normal farm kid who played lots of sports and had other responsibilities totally fits. Compare that to other players who enter the league having spent most of their physical and mental energy throughout childhood playing and thinking about football, playing Madden, etc. So Allen is a little behind from that stand point and it shows on the field. Watch Baker, then watch Allen. 

 

Josh will get better at that stuff though with more reps, and in the meantime his physical gifts are special and will keep us in or win us a bunch of games. The extra offensive talent around him will help tremendously.  

Nice reply,

 

My expectations are very high because along with the boatload of talent , Josh Allen has a good head on his shoulders and protects the football well.

 

Not hardwired yet , I like that assessment. (Barkley, hardwired)

Edited by Figster

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Ideally, more passing and less running.  3500 yards 20 tds are two categories to strive to surpass.  With better receiving threats out of the backfield, and underneath, it should result in an increase in yards and percentage.  I'm high on Allen and think he can realistically do it.  If Allen shows that kind of improvement Buffalo is in the playoffs.

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39 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

It is not that I believe he doesn't have the ability to be very effective in the short game. When I say it will never be his strength, I am referring to the fact that the 15-25 yd range is where his strength will be. I agree if he becomes very effective in the short game, it will make his real strengths that much better.

Oh, yeah!.  I think he's going to be deadly in that 15-25 yard range - that will be his strength.    He's really accurate there, and he gets the ball there in the hurry.   It's the short game that will open up those passes.

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If find it amusing, if not downright annoying, that fans claim to know whether or not Josh is capable of making quick decisions as an NFL QB after one season behind one of the worst lines in the league.

 

Can we give the kid another year or two before coming to these conclusions, particularly after seeing the improvement over the second half of the season?

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Ideally, more passing and less running.  3500 yards 20 tds are two categories to strive to surpass.  With better receiving threats out of the backfield, and underneath, it should result in an increase in yards and percentage.  I'm high on Allen and think he can realistically do it.  If Allen shows that kind of improvement Buffalo is in the playoffs.  

5 minutes ago, eball said:

If find it amusing, if not downright annoying, that fans claim to know whether or not Josh is capable of making quick decisions as an NFL QB after one season behind one of the worst lines in the league.

 

Can we give the kid another year or two before coming to these conclusions, particularly after seeing the improvement over the second half of the season?

Those games after the injury I would like to see any Qb in the league do better in that situation.  I think the sky is the limit.  With all the additions to the line, Wrs, and Te, the part I think is most over looked is Allen getting all the reps in training camp.  

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On 5/14/2019 at 2:49 AM, Thurman#1 said:

I don't know if I'd feel great at that. But not bad. It would probably be real progress.

 

You didn't do it, Hapless, but many on here are confusing win-loss record for a QB stat. It's not. That's a team stat. Again, the real name for that stat is "TEAM record in games started by this QB (regular season)."

 

For Josh, I'm hoping to see a bit better than your YPG. That completion % would be a real improvement, and for his second year I'd be happy.

 

I hope guys like VW82 above are wrong in thinking Josh will never have a high completion percentage, but I think that's one very possible scenario, that he turns into a kind of Cam Newton type. I hope that cleaning up his mechanics will let him go far beyond that, but I'm far from sure of it.

 

I Hear You on the W/L record being a team stat.  The place where they're interconnected of course, is that much of the season we had a D that was good enough to win IMO.  [We need them to take a step in run D, but a team can't win when the O gives up 4-5 turnovers].  So to improve our W-L, we clearly need our offense to take a step.  And as the QB goes, so goes the offense.

 

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