NewEra Posted July 14, 2019 Share Posted July 14, 2019 21 hours ago, Ol Dirty B said: I think they should cover but I don't bet the Bills. If you're a fan, like all of us here are, youre gonna be swayed by fandom. Just stay away. I have the Ravens at under 8.5. I can't see them winning 9. Their line fluctuates a decent amount. Since I move to LV 21 years ago I’ve been betting on or against the Bills 10-16 times a year, every year. I don’t keep a running total but I believe I’m picking bills games around a 65%ish percent clip against the spread, moneyline and o/u 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted July 14, 2019 Share Posted July 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, NewEra said: Since I move to LV 21 years ago I’ve been betting on or against the Bills 10-16 times a year, every year. I don’t keep a running total but I believe I’m picking bills games around a 65%ish percent clip against the spread, moneyline and o/u Yeah okay.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted July 14, 2019 Share Posted July 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, NewEra said: Since I move to LV 21 years ago I’ve been betting on or against the Bills 10-16 times a year, every year. I don’t keep a running total but I believe I’m picking bills games around a 65%ish percent clip against the spread, moneyline and o/u sure as hell hope you have made betting the Bills your full time job...if i could hit 65 % winners i would be a rich man ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted July 14, 2019 Share Posted July 14, 2019 9 minutes ago, row_33 said: Yeah okay.... Did you read? Apparently not. If you did, you’d realize that’s it’s not very hard 9 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said: sure as hell hope you have made betting the Bills your full time job...if i could hit 65 % winners i would be a rich man ! 65% vs the spread, money line and o/u. maybe some people don’t know what the money line is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted July 14, 2019 Share Posted July 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, NewEra said: Did you read? Apparently not. If you did, you’d realize that’s it’s not very hard 65% vs the spread, money line and o/u. maybe some people don’t know what the money line is are you not saying you hit 65% winners? Are are you saying for every $1000 you bet, you lose 350? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted July 14, 2019 Share Posted July 14, 2019 (edited) 50 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said: are you not saying you hit 65% winners? Are are you saying for every $1000 you bet, you lose 350? I believe my ratio would be around 65% win% betting on games vs the spread (have to win/lose within a certain amount), money line (win or lose) and over/under total points scored. 65% isn’t very good if every bet was a money line bet. The majority are against the spread but I’d have to guess 15-20% of the bets are money line. my point of saying this was in response to someone saying that we shouldn’t bet the Bills due to personal bias’ as Bills fans. I don’t have a betting bias towards the Bills. When I bet against them, I forget about the bet til after the game. The only thing that matters is a W. It’s just hard to pass up good value at times edit; I’d say the majority of my wagers against the Bills are money line bets that are -200+. Usually covers hence the high percentage Edited July 14, 2019 by NewEra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted July 14, 2019 Share Posted July 14, 2019 1 minute ago, NewEra said: I believe my ratio would be around 65% win% betting on games vs the spread (have to win/lose within a certain amount), money line (win or lose) and over/under total points scored. 65% isn’t very good if every bet was a money line bet. The majority are against the spread but I’d have to guess 15-20% of the bets are money line. my point of saying this was in response to someone saying that we shouldn’t bet the Bills due to personal bias’ as Bills fans. I don’t have a betting bias towards the Bills. When I bet against them, I forget about the bet til after the game. The only thing that matters is a W. It’s just hard to pass up good value at times So i usually associate moneyline with taking the dog..that is pretty much only side I ever bet. But maybe oyu are saying you sometimes also play the favorite on the moneyline That being said, 65% winners is considered elite level win percentage, and i do mean elite, like almost impossible. Read these articles..says 70% is almost statistically impossible https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/what-are-realistic-expectations-when-betting-on-the-nfl/ https://drbobsports.com/sports-betting-as-an-investment/ So as I say, if you are hitting 65%..quit your job and do that poop full time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted July 14, 2019 Share Posted July 14, 2019 41 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said: So i usually associate moneyline with taking the dog..that is pretty much only side I ever bet. But maybe oyu are saying you sometimes also play the favorite on the moneyline That being said, 65% winners is considered elite level win percentage, and i do mean elite, like almost impossible. Read these articles..says 70% is almost statistically impossible https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/what-are-realistic-expectations-when-betting-on-the-nfl/ https://drbobsports.com/sports-betting-as-an-investment/ So as I say, if you are hitting 65%..quit your job and do that poop full time! Yeah, I’ll play favorites on the ML. Sometimes straight bets but usually in a 2-3 teamer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiotAct Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 still easier money than playing perfect basic-strategy blackjack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 (edited) I suspect in a future thread, not too far off, “the vig” will be closely connected to @plenzmd1. He seems to know too much about the industry, and he travels with a large band of reconnaissance personnel. Trust them at your own risk. But have a damn good time either way! . Edited July 15, 2019 by Augie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aussie Joe Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 Anyone here actually bet this? I have bet the Bills to make playoffs, win division and a small bet on win championship... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBilz2500 Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said: Anyone here actually bet this? I have bet the Bills to make playoffs, win division and a small bet on win championship... I put $5000 on the over. ??? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billieve420 Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 1 minute ago, Aussie Joe said: Anyone here actually bet this? I have bet the Bills to make playoffs, win division and a small bet on win championship... I wish I had the patience to make these season long bets. I have $750 tied up on Jacob Degrom to win the Cy Young which I made a few weeks ago and it is annoying me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 On 4/30/2019 at 8:27 AM, ddaryl said: Just took out a 3rd mortgage. This ones gonna pay big. I just know it 3 minutes ago, DBilz2500 said: I put $5000 on the over. ??? But does your wife know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said: Anyone here actually bet this? I have bet the Bills to make playoffs, win division and a small bet on win championship... I'm not a big roller and the payout wasn't worth the effort of driving to a sportsbook. But I did take +450 on the Bills making the playoffs back in August. I also took +1200 on winning the division. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DBilz2500 Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: But does your wife know? She has no idea that a nice Christmas present is coming this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aussie Joe Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 (edited) 7 minutes ago, billieve420 said: I wish I had the patience to make these season long bets. I have $750 tied up on Jacob Degrom to win the Cy Young which I made a few weeks ago and it is annoying me. Yeah, its normally not my thing either.. but thought that the Bills odds were more than generous so thought I would give it a go... Wish I had bet the over 6.5... with games against Miami x 2, Jets and Washington, they could probably put Peterman back out there and cover this... Edited October 9, 2019 by Aussie Joe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 On 5/22/2019 at 7:23 AM, plenzmd1 said: Someone like the bills winning 8 This guy's banking some coin. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 8 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said: This guy's banking some coin. Seems like a lock but one thing I learned is that don’t gloat over a bet before it officially wins. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsQuebec Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 Back in May I wagered $6,987 to win $5,269 on the Bills over 6.5 wins. Here is the proof (YouTube video). Eventually I added the following bets: Bills to win the AFC East $1,000 to win $12,000 Bills to win the AFC Championship $500 to win $33,000 Crossing my fingers! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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