Zerovoltz Draft Analysis

[HappyDays]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I have seen more of Zero's wife's breasts than I expected to this morning that is for sure. 

 

It wouldn't be a TBD offseason without softcore nudity. It beats Zay Jones's butt from last year.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

It wouldn't be a TBD offseason without softcore nudity. It beats Zay Jones's butt from last year.

 

With all due respect to Zero and his lovely wife..... can I see more naked Zay? 

[TBBills Fan]

hot Asian woman pics would make this thread better

 

Edit.... Late to the party

Edited April 8, 2019 by TBBills Fan

[Zerovoltz]

Just putting this here so I can refer back to all my prediction and analysis in one spot.

 

Quarterbacks.....I think many  have missevaluated the QB position as it pertains to where these guys will be drafted because the last 3 classes have produced so well. I think that people are assuming there must be 3 or 4 good QB in a class now just because that has been the recent trend. What I think people have completely missed is that teams are evaluating the position more accurately. That has coincided with the last 3 classes having good QB's in them. 

2016. First Round.

GOFF
WENTZ 
Lynch

2017. First Round
TRUBISKY
MAHOMES
WATSON

2018 First Round
MAYFIELD
DARNOLD?
ALLEN?
ROSEN?
JACKSON?

Every player on this list except Lynch is their teams starter. Rosen technically is...but will be traded and is considered a good prospect still. 

All 5 from the 2016 and 2017 have already played in at least one playoff game. 

Without going too deep, you could make a reasonable argument that all 5 of those QB's were absolutely correct choices, who had, for the most part, been correctly evaluated by the teams who took them. You can make a very strong case that none are busts. You can make a decent case that all 5 2018 QB's have worked out so far (I would argue that isn't quite the case yet, but for this argument, I'm going with the thought these guys are considered legit) 

If you believe, as I do, that teams have in fact, improved at their evaluation of the QB position, AND you believe that this group isn't that good. ( I think it's a poor group after Murray) Then, to me, that means these QB's are going to fall farther than people think. 

 Denver...I..Elway has CORRECTLY evaluated this draft class as far as QB goes. His coaching hire also is a STRONG indication that Elway still believes that he has a good roster that needs better coaching and simply, average QB play to win. He didn't hire Vic Fangio to develop a drafted QB. Fangio is going to win with Defense and Flacco or he is getting fired and the next coach gets to develop the drafted QBOTF that would come later on. I believe ALL QB will be on the board at 10 when Denver picks...they won't have a trade partner, and will stay there and select a defender.

The one team poised to actually take their next QB right now is the Bengals. New offensive minded coach. No extension for Dalton. Dalton can be cut anytime with no dead money right now. The Bengals are prone to doing things to sell tickets. Haskins makes sense for these reasons.

The other surprises here are going to be the teams eveyrone thinks will go QB and they are will not be. The Giants have Dave Gettleman....who is bound and determined to prove everyone wrong about his drafting philosphy......If they don't take a QB at 6 (they won't) then they aren't taking one at 17 either. I can't see Gettleman liking any of these guys enough to swallow his pride and stake his reputation on. His odds of hitting on a defender at 6 and maybe a WR at 17, are alot better than hitting on a QB (especially this year) He'll be able to show his detractors that he was right to take the guys he took and they'll go forward another year with Eli.

The Redskins are going to roll with Keenum and McCoy. The Redskins are NOT going to give this front office and coaching staff the benefit of more time that you'd get with a new QB to develop. They need to win now and they have some good pieces on D. They'll take a player who can help now....that isn't one of these iffy QBs. 

The Dolphins are an enigma. They are rolling with Fitz. They are reportedly going to consider this year a tank/blow up year. They did hire a new coach, so the grace etc needed for the new QB that new coaches gets, exists here. I don't see them considering themselves as ready to draft a QB now. I think they want to get through this year of cap hell and blow up the roster and see how next years class shakes out. No reason to start your rebuild with a QB who they won't start, and have no confidence in starting. 

That leaves late round trade ups to consider....Lock will be a juicy target for someone perhaps later....but with the depth of defensive and TE talent in this draft...I can see no moves back into round 1 for Lock, Jones or anyone else. 

The class just isn't that good, and the circumstances of the teams who are percieved to need QB's aren't aligned with a desperation move....combine that with what I believe are improved scouting efforts and you have a 1st round that has TWO Qb's drafted.

Edited April 21, 2019 by Zerovotlz
grammar

[Doc]

Word on the street now is that the Cardinals will not draft Murray because after all the speculation that they'll take him, they're having a hard time selling tix.    If true, that organization is an even bigger dumpster fire than I thought.

[NewEra]

28 minutes ago, Zerovotlz said:

Just putting this here so I can refer back to all my prediction and analysis in one spot.

 

Quarterbacks.....I think many  have missevaluated the QB position as it pertains to where these guys will be drafted because the last 3 classes have produced so well. I think that people are assuming there must be 3 or 4 good QB in a class now just because that has been the recent trend. What I think people have completely missed is that teams are evaluating the position more accurately. That has coincided with the last 3 classes having good QB's in them. 

2016. First Round.

GOFF
WENTZ 
Lynch

2017. First Round
TRUBISKY
MAHOMES
WATSON

2018 First Round
MAYFIELD
DARNOLD?
ALLEN?
ROSEN?
JACKSON?

Every player on this list except Lynch is their teams starter. Rosen technically is...but will be traded and is considered a good prospect still. 

All 5 from the 2016 and 2017 have already played in at least one playoff game. 

Without going too deep, you could make a reasonable argument that all 5 of those QB's were absolutely correct choices, who had, for the most part, been correctly evaluated by the teams who took them. You can make a very strong case that none are busts. You can make a decent case that all 5 2018 QB's have worked out so far (I would argue that isn't quite the case yet, but for this argument, I'm going with the thought these guys are considered legit) 

If you believe, as I do, that teams have in fact, improved at their evaluation of the QB position, AND you believe that this group isn't that good. ( I think it's a poor group after Murray) Then, to me, that means these QB's are going to fall farther than people think. 

 Denver...I..Elway has CORRECTLY evaluated this draft class as far as QB goes. His coaching hire also is a STRONG indication that Elway still believes that he has a good roster that needs better coaching and simply, average QB play to win. He didn't hire Vic Fangio to develop a drafted QB. Fangio is going to win with Defense and Flacco or he is getting fired and the next coach gets to develop the drafted QBOTF that would come later on. I believe ALL QB will be on the board at 10 when Denver picks...they won't have a trade partner, and will stay there and select a defender.

The one team poised to actually take their next QB right now is the Bengals. New offensive minded coach. No extension for Dalton. Dalton can be cut anytime with no dead money right now. The Bengals are prone to doing things to sell tickets. Haskins makes sense for these reasons.

The other surprises here are going to be the teams eveyrone thinks will go QB and they are will not be. The Giants have Dave Gettleman....who is bound and determined to prove everyone wrong about his drafting philosphy......If they don't take a QB at 6 (they won't) then they aren't taking one at 17 either. I can't see Gettleman liking any of these guys enough to swallow his pride and stake his reputation on. His odds of hitting on a defender at 6 and maybe a WR at 17, are alot better than hitting on a QB (especially this year) He'll be able to show his detractors that he was right to take the guys he took and they'll go forward another year with Eli.

The Redskins are going to roll with Keenum and McCoy. The Redskins are NOT going to give this front office and coaching staff the benefit of more time that you'd get with a new QB to develop. They need to win now and they have some good pieces on D. They'll take a player who can help now....that isn't one of these iffy QBs. 

The Dolphins are an enigma. They are rolling with Fitz. They are reportedly going to consider this year a tank/blow up year. They did hire a new coach, so the grace etc needed for the new QB that new coaches gets, exists here. I don't see them considering themselves as ready to draft a QB now. I think they want to get through this year of cap hell and blow up the roster and see how next years class shakes out. No reason to start your rebuild with a QB who they won't start, and have no confidence in starting. 

That leaves late round trade ups to consider....Lock will be a juicy target for someone perhaps later....but with the depth of defensive and TE talent in this draft...I can see no moves back into round 1 for Lock, Jones or anyone else. 

The class just isn't that good, and the circumstances of the teams who are percieved to need QB's aren't aligned with a desperation move....combine that with what I believe are improved scouting efforts and you have a 1st round that has TWO Qb's drafted.

Agreed.  This QB class is terrible.  I believe Murray goes 1 and no other teams drafts one until rd 2 or maybe in a trade up to end of rd 1.  All the talk about teams trading up with us to get ahead of the Broncos is hilarious.  No one is trading up for these bums

[Logic]

When I saw that this thread had come back to the front page and clicked on it, I was not expecting that it would contain 4 pictures of Zero's wife. The bosom-y shot was particularly out of left field. And also...it made me like him more? Is that weird? I mean, it takes brass balls to just be like "here's a picture of my wife in a mild state of undress, you heathen football loving strangers!". So....props.

[dlonce]

On 4/7/2019 at 8:38 PM, Shaw66 said:

Thanks. That's interesting analysis.

 

Bill's will take BPA, whatever position he plays. 

 

Agree, unless it’s a QB.

Some people just don’t believe in the BPA concept.

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Doc said:

Word on the street now is that the Cardinals will not draft Murray because after all the speculation that they'll take him, they're having a hard time selling tix.    If true, that organization is an even bigger dumpster fire than I thought.

 

The reason they were all in on him in the first place was partly tickets. The owner is flailing around in the dark for a reason to make fans attend. 

[BarleyNY]

On 4/7/2019 at 8:02 PM, Zerovotlz said:

My thoughts on this draft.

 

1.  This a ONE QB draft.  Kyler Murray is it.  (it could be 2 IF Grier ends up in a good spot)  I love Murray and I like Grier.  The rest of the QB's in this class are garbage.  Grier would need to land in a place like Cincinnatti where he'd have a chance to supplant the starter in order for this to become a two QB class.  Unfortunately for Grier, I get the impression that a team like Indy or Carolina would take him and he'll ride the bench behind a well established starter.

 

2.  This draft has a TON of DL blue chip prospects at the top. 

 

3.  Combine the idea here that it's a one QB draft, and that the blue chips will be available into the 20's and that means your going to have a draft with little or no trading at the top.  With no QB to go up for, none of the teams like Washington or Miami will be inclined to pay a price to move up for the 2nd QB in this draft who is probably every bit as good (or bad as the case may be) as the 8th QB.  Also, if you can get a Blue chip defender at 20, why trade up to 8, 9 etc?  The market conditions aren't going to be there for teams to want to pay to move up.  

 

4.  This all means the Bills and others up at the top will be staying put and making a selection.  And so, with the 9th pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, the Buffalo Bills select TJ Hockensen, TE, Iowa.  My thought here is the Bills believe in their defense and their scheme.  By getting involved in an attempt to trade for Antonio Brown, the front office has shown they are all in on getting Josh Allen weaponry.  The Bills do not have a weapon at TE on their roster.  Hockensen would start from day 1 and make an immedeate impact.

 

5.  The Giants won't take a QB in round 1.  The Broncos won't take a QB in round 1.  The Dolphins won't take a QB in round 1.  The Redskins won't take a QB in round 1 (because I think they will be trading their pick to Arizona for Rosen)  In fact, after Murray, the other QB's are going to slide down the board....again, based on my assesment that these QB's suck, coupled with the blue chippers into the 20's...no reason to draft a flawed QB high when you can get the same flawed guy in round 4.  I wouldn't be entirely surprised at all if only Murray goes in round 1.

 

6.  Round 2 will see several WR that will prove to be good value selections.

 

Yes, I know you all don't care for the Chiefs fans perspective, but this is high quality analysis and I provide it for free.

 

Agree with all of this except for Grier.  Watch Gettleman take him at the top of the second round and think he got a steal.  Just like when Miami took Ginn and then Beck in the second.  I still remember Mueller and Cameron sitting in the presser acting like they put one over on the league. 

 

I think the rest is spot on though.  There will be DL taken in the second that would usually never make it close to the end of the first.  The QBs - aside from Murray - will fall.  Or rather they should fall. 

[Doc]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

The reason they were all in on him in the first place was partly tickets. The owner is flailing around in the dark for a reason to make fans attend. 

 

Selling tickets is a stupid reason to draft a player.  And the flaw with that premise is that there's no player in this draft who will sell tickets.

[Jay_Fixit]

On 4/8/2019 at 2:05 PM, HappyDays said:

 

It wouldn't be a TBD offseason without softcore nudity. It beats Zay Jones's butt from last year.

I don’t know about that. Zay’s buns are pretty tight.

[Zerovoltz]

Again...just posting my draft thoughts here so I can find them easily when I need to refer to them later...

 

Bosa is going to be a bust.

 

I've watched some film and here is what I think.  If he doesn't succeed with that first "swipe" then he's done.  NFL caliber offensive lineman are going to be able to control and contain Bosa consistantly.  Bosa MUST win with his hands right away to gain the advantage he needs to be effective as a pass rusher.  He is otherwise limited due to his relatively short arms.  Throw in that he already has back problems.....that says BUST to me.  I think whoever gets him, will be dissappointed how often he can't win against good NFL caliber linemen.  

[Punching Bag]

On 4/7/2019 at 9:33 PM, Zerovotlz said:

 

I get this alot.  I am not Jeffismagic.  ....ironically, I post on a Denver Broncos board (and also Jetsnation) as Zerovoltz, and over there, those guys think I am also a Pat Mahomes guy who reinvented a new name etc.  I'm really Zerovoltz.  From KC.  I live in Dallas/Ft Worth.  I met and took pictures with Poncho Billa at the 2018 draft.  My wife is a hot asian woman.  

 

You are not allowed to post that on this board without a picture.  And this is not for me since I already have an Asian woman (married 31 years, import wife and domestic cars is my philosophy) and just returned from Hong Kong and saw hot Asian women every day.

On 4/7/2019 at 9:59 PM, Zerovotlz said:

I actually spelled it wrong the day I signed up for this place.  

 

You can actually change your name.

[Zerovoltz]

4 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

You are not allowed to post that on this board without a picture.  And this is not for me since I already have an Asian woman (married 31 years, import wife and domestic cars is my philosophy) and just returned from Hong Kong and saw hot Asian women every day.

 

You can actually change your name.

Go back a page...pictures there.  

 

How do I change my name?.

 

 

Edited April 22, 2019 by Zerovotlz

[Zerovoltz]

Figured it out.  Name updated.  

 

Also...wanted to put this here so I can find it and refer to it much more easily.  PLEASE NOTE THE DATE!  ...This was written almost 3 months BEFORE the 2018 Draft.

 

 

[Punching Bag]

3 minutes ago, Zerovotlz said:

Go back a page...pictures there.  

 

How do I change my name?.

 

 

https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/settings/

You might need a minimum number of posts or time to change

You could also (You might need a minimum number of posts or time to change) just change title to aka correct spelling.

 

If those do not work try posting in this forum:

https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/forum/11-customer-service/

 

Oh and other teams fans are generally welcome unless they act like WEO (troll).

3 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

Figured it out.  Name updated.  

 

Also...wanted to put this here so I can find it and refer to it much more easily.  PLEASE NOTE THE DATE!  ...This was written almost 3 months BEFORE the 2018 Draft.

 

 

 

Looks like you did it when I was composing post explaining options for you.

[Rocky Landing]

Rocky Landing is nonplussed by your third-person narrative.

[Zerovoltz]

I was just reading through that 2018 QB projection thread....Jay Fix It has some GOLD in there.

[TigerJ]

I don't agree, but it is a legit take on the draft.  I think it is a given that the QB quality in this draft, apart from Murray, isn't what it was a year ago.  That said, when teams need QBs, they REALLY NEED QBs.  Because they do fear that they won't get the QB they really need because they waited too long is a powerful motivation.  Somebody, and probably several somebodies with take QBs earlier than the quality of those QBs merit.  I don't know if that will affect the top 10 picks in the draft, but I'm not counting out the possibility.  In any case, Buffalo will have several possible prospects to choose from.  Hockenson is one of them.  I think the Bills could do a lot worse.