The issue of a small competing window due to a QB on a rookie deal- what’s your solution?

[formerlyofCtown]

Make sure you got a QB that can make a difference and draft well.

[GunnerBill]

15 hours ago, JoeF said:

This speaks to overall cap management.

 

Let's take Josh for example.  His maximum cap hit on his rookie deal is $6.75 Million.  His second contract may be an average cap hit of $30 million, so where do you get the $24 Million more without having to trash the rest of the roster.

 

Here are my thoughts:

1) Accumulate a ton of room and don't spend it all so there is a $10-15 Million per year rollover budget- Bills can check this box

2) Put a coaching staff in place where you can grow your own - Jury still out

3) Build a class A pro and college scouting staff- there is no cap here-- load up on known scouting talent and pay them well-Pegula bucks allow this

4) Extend deals before the player has all the leverage at contract expiration - If they have good years in 2019 - Bills should begin to work on Milano, Jones, Dawkins, Phillips, Taron Johnson, Levi Wallace, and Robert Foster in the 19 offseason.  They will save money by extending early rather than waiting until the player has increased leverage.  

5) Sign on the rise free agents-(young but over the rookie "prove it" hump)-big established names cost big money and usually fall short of expectation.  Micah Hyde -- long-time starter; great reputation but not break the bank money would be the top level I would limit myself too; otherwise look for more Jordan Poyers while scouting...recoverable injury under the radar Free Agents and turn them into high contributing starters.

6) Sign Vets on their last contract for the Interior OL and Interior DL -- this is where you can find some quick fix bargains where the athleticism doesn't wane as quickly with age.  You get OG, Centers, and DTs at the end of their career that can still give you 2 or 3 years at a reduced price.  Look for that this year.

 

If you manage the system in this way--consuming Josh's second contract does not have to kill the roster.  Plus I think Josh will be fair.......he knows that if he takes up too much room -- it kills the rest of the roster.  He already shows signs of caring more about winning than an extra $3-4 million per year...but we will see.

 

 

The problem with this plan is the rules. Your plan to store cap space for 5 years until Josh's contract comes up would by the end of that time have you at risk against the cap floor. 

 

Equally you can't renegotiate with players on rookie deals until the end of their 3rd year. By that point you know the guy can either play or he can't. If he can he isn't giving you a discount because you come to him early and if he can't then you won't want to extend him. Sure you might get a guy who you sign after 3 years who then has a monster 4th year but that is no more or less likely than a guy who you sign after 4 years having a monster 5th year and if that is the case and they have signed cheap you better be willing to pay again or else you are ripe for a holdout (there are rumours abound we may have a holdout situation this year in any event). 

 

Ultimately it comes down to a combination of your points 3, 5 and 6. It is about talent evaluation. Having a Franchise QB always gives you a chance to be a winner. Taking that chance means constantly evaluating young talent to put around him and making good value judgments on vet FAs. The good news is we do have a very well regarded scouting staff - indeed two people Beane brought in less than two years ago have already left for promotions to Assistant GM or GM in other organisations. Again like drafting well constantly re-stocking your personnel division with young talent is critical because if you find good guys other teams will take them. 

 

There is no magic plan, no magic formula to building around a well paid Franchise QB. You have to evaluate talent well and spend wisely around him. 

 

[Rc2catch]

1 hour ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Make sure you got a QB that can make a difference and draft well.

This is my feeling on it, the best teams draft and develop talent. If you have a stud quarterback and surround him with hungry guys wanting to make a name for themselves and get better there will be some success. 

[Prickly Pete]

3 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Brady taking less money is so overblown. He takes a few percentage points less than the top paid QBs. Its the Patriots moving on from high priced veterans that has saved them. Not signing Welker and Vinatieri and replcing with Edelman, Hogan, and Gostkowski. 

 

I concede that's a legitimate point.

Edited January 22, 2019 by OJ Tom

[LSHMEAB]

9 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

 

 

Hawks already had decent talent when Russell arrived. They had gone 7-9 the 2 years before.  They won a playoff game (Beast Quake) one of those years.  They had the Beast and Sydney Rice.

 

Seems to me they had a better plan. Get some decent talent together, THEN add the QB on rookie contract.  We did the opposite. Hopefully it works.

 

 

All of that is true and contrasts the Seattle situation to the Buffalo situation. I'm also not discounting the benefit of having a QB on his rookie deal. Just seems like it's really overstated based on a couple of examples. The Rams have indeed taken advantage of Goff's rookie deal, so it's not without merit. I feel like if you've got a true franchise QB, it'll work itself out in the long run and you pay him or lose him. It's that simple. 

Edited January 22, 2019 by LSHMEAB

[reddogblitz]

5 hours ago, Bills2ref said:

Brady’s O-line is anything but primo. Do we forget how quickly Nate Solder looked like trash without Brady? Brady has an impeccable internal clock that allows him to avoid sacks without being particularly mobile. That makes his O-line look good, not the other way around. He’s never had a top WR, look how great Danny Ammendola produced in Miami without Brady. Brady’s RB’s have rarely been top of the line. Sony Michel could turn into that, or it could be the threat of Brady’s passing game that opens up the run game. A good defense? The past two years the Patriots defense have been anything but top notch. Buffalo bias comes in huge with Brady, I understand that. But try putting it aside for a while and realize the best QB to ever play the game makes all the other facets of the team appear better than they are. 

 

I know this is a popular opinion but I disagree.  His WRs may not being the tall lanky go up and grab contested ball types like Julio Jones and AJ Green that one thinks of when great WR discussions come up.  But that's not their game.  They don't throw contested sideline throws or back of the EZ jump balls.  Their offense calls for fast guys running short routes that can catch the football and run with it.  Edelman totally fits the Bill as did Welker before him and Amendola and Brandon Cooks.  They are very sure handed most of the time as well.  So I would argue that he (and the others) ARE great WRs.  And lets not forget about The Gronk. 

 

And yes, a good defense.  In 2018 they were 6th in league in average points per game.  In 2017 they were 5th.  In 2016 they were numero uno. In 2015, number 10.    if you look back over the years this is pretty typical.  I don't know how you judge Defenses, but preventing the opposition from scoring points is the way I do it. 

 

And before you say that's Tommy too, they had 36 seconds more Time of Possession than Buffalo this year.  2018 - #8, 2017 - #11 2016 #4  2015 - #20.  So it's not like they're holding the ball and the D only has to play 20:00 per game.

 

He is good.  But his team is stacked and he has had great coaching.  I don't say he's not good, but I also don't say he can hide weaknesses, because his team never really has much if any IMHO.

Edited January 22, 2019 by reddogblitz

[PetermansRedemption]

7 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

I know this is a popular opinion but I disagree.  His WRs may not being the tall lanky go up and grab contested ball types like Julio Jones and AJ Green that one thinks of when great WR discussions come up.  But that's not their game.  They don't throw contested sideline throws or back of the EZ jump balls.  Their offense calls for fast guys running short routes that can catch the football and run with it.  Edelman totally fits the Bill as did Welker before him and Amendola and Brandon Cooks.  They are very sure handed most of the time as well.  So I would argue that he (and the others) ARE great WRs. 

 

And yes, a good defense.  In 2018 they were 6th in league in average points per game.  In 2017 they were 5th.  In 2016 they were numero uno. In 2015, number 10.    if you look back over the years this is pretty typical.  I don't know how you judge Defenses, but preventing the opposition from scoring points is the way I do it.  And before you say that's Tommy too, they had 36 seconds more Time of Possession than Buffalo this year.  2018 - #8, 2017 #11 2016 #4  2015 #20.  So it's not like they're holding the ball and the D only has to play 20:00 per game.

 

He is good.  But his team is stacked and he has had great coaching.  I don't say he's not good, but I also don't say he can hide weaknesses, because his team never really has much if any IMHO.

7th in points allowed this year, but 21st in yards allowed per game. Maybe split the difference and call them an average defense. Welker’s production absolutely tanked after he left New England, Amendola was average with New England and average outside of New England. Edelman we will never know, but I suspect he would be another Wes Walker if he left New England. Hogan was average with Buffalo and still is now. The only true weapon Brady has ever had was Gronk. Brandin Cooks has proven to be a great receiver, both in New England and out of it. Still surprised Bill traded that man. At best, you can say Brady has had an above-average supporting cast over the years. He has elevated them to greatness. 

Edited January 22, 2019 by Bills2ref

[reddogblitz]

34 minutes ago, Bills2ref said:

7th in points allowed this year, but 21st in yards allowed per game. Maybe split the difference and call them an average defense. Welker’s production absolutely tanked after he left New England, Amendola was average with New England and average outside of New England. Edelman we will never know, but I suspect he would be another Wes Walker if he left New England. Hogan was average with Buffalo and still is now. The only true weapon Brady has ever had was Gronk. Brandin Cooks has proven to be a great receiver, both in New England and out of it. Still surprised Bill traded that man. At best, you can say Brady has had an above-average supporting cast over the years. He has elevated them to greatness. 

 

How many points do you get for yards?

 

I think you're basing Edelman and others as being effective due to Tommy, but I base it more on the style of offense they run.  That's why they have short fast guys whereas most other teams gravitate to taller lankier WRs.  Maybe Welker and Amendola didn't succeed in other places because the offense didn't suit their specific size and skill set like it did in NE?

 

I predict that if Tommy retires after this year and Bill Bellyache does not, they will trade for Foles and the train will keep rolling.

[Steve Billieve]

22 hours ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

I dont think Tom Brady or Drew Brees are still on a rookie contract, but I could be wrong. 

Saints went through cap space hell though.  Up until this year they held the record for most dead cap in a season.

Brady famously takes way bellow his market value.  You can't exactly expect your players to do that.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

The Seahawks got really good when they strung together three really good drafts in a row from 2010 to 2012. 

 

This is where they got thd the bulk of their difference makers - Okung, Thomas, Tate, Chancellor, KJ Wright, Richard Sherman, Wilson, Wagner, Irvin.

 

The key is drafting good NFL players. Largely from the start of The Drought on, the Bills have Draft classes that yield one or two average starters. 

 

 

 

 

[PlayoffsPlease]

On 1/22/2019 at 7:56 PM, Steve Billieve said:

Saints went through cap space hell though.  Up until this year they held the record for most dead cap in a season.

Brady famously takes way bellow his market value.  You can't exactly expect your players to do that.

Brady's cap hit this year is 22 million. Maybe below market, hardly a rookie deal. 

[QCity]

On 1/22/2019 at 7:56 PM, Steve Billieve said:

Saints went through cap space hell though.  Up until this year they held the record for most dead cap in a season.

 

 

 

The Saint's previous "cap space hell" issue had nothing to do with Brees contract, and everything to do with Loomis's reckless overspending. Ironically, Brees actually covers up a large portion of his GMs missteps and is likely the only reason he still has a job.

 

The "rookie-QB window" is basically a fallacy and only an issue for GM's that don't know how to properly construct a roster, and even then it isn't a problem if the QB is exceptionally great.

 

 

 

 

 

[djp14150]

On 1/21/2019 at 3:26 PM, whatdrought said:

That’s a weird title, I know, but I didn’t want to be vague.

 

I’ve heard a lot lately about how team building is all about getting a good young QB, then surrounding him with pieces while you can before he commands an ungodly amount of money. The Seahawks, I think are an example bandied about. I had someone mention that Reid only has like 2 years left to figure out how to win in the playoffs before Mahomes is the million dollar man x200.

 

But this seems crazy to me to think that getting a good QB can actually become a crutch after a couple of years. I suppose this thought could be blown out of preportion, but it seems like there’s some truth to it.

 

All that to say- what would be your solution? You have a young QB whose playing great and you know in the next year or two you’re gonna have to pay him. How do you handle this?

 

The have 3 yrs before they have to pay Whire. 4 yrs till they need to pay Allen. 

 

This is is what was done in Seattle and what was done in kc. It was no accident they paid Watkins only a 3 yr contract.

 

the Rams and eagles did this too

 

you have a first contract on cb and about and LB and another position in theory that gives you about$50 M to play with that you won’t have when these players want a 2nd contract.

[Steve O]

My solution would be to follow the New England model (duh.) Have your quarterback marry a really rich women. Then, like Gisele, they can tell their husband to go ahead and play their game, don't worry about how much you make. We'll be fine if you only get paid 2/3 of what you're worth. Let the team spend the rest of what should be your money overpaying for free agents that would otherwise sign elsewhere.

[Steve Billieve]

9 hours ago, QCity said:

 

 

The Saint's previous "cap space hell" issue had nothing to do with Brees contract, and everything to do with Loomis's reckless overspending. Ironically, Brees actually covers up a large portion of his GMs missteps and is likely the only reason he still has a job.

 

The "rookie-QB window" is basically a fallacy and only an issue for GM's that don't know how to properly construct a roster, and even then it isn't a problem if the QB is exceptionally great.

They definitely signed Brees to a record contract, and were doing a lot of restructuring while they were competitive, but I'm not going to pretend I know the inns and outs of their bad contracts.  I don't believe in the "rookie QB window either" but I do think getting good value for the money is the most overlooked element of winning.

 

The year they did have that huge dead money figure the saints were not good.  Even with an exceptional QB.

[FeelingOnYouboty]

Gotta capitalize like the Bears did when they made the Khalil Mack trade