Bills: Playoffs or Bust 2019. What must happen?

[row_33]

Probably Bust.

 

That will be fine if noticed improvements are made during the season.

[GoBills808]

18 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

 

Another remarkable thing is that on paper, and according to the vast majority here, the Ravens’ and ours are comparable.  On a per-game basis Allen and Jackson have about the same number of TDs/start, Allen's slightly higher but with Jackson's about the same if we include his non-starting play.  Yet Jackson’s rushing yards/start exceeded Allen’s by nearly 25 yards whereas his passing yards/start lag Allen’s by several yards fewer than that. 

 

...

 

Also, Jackson’s YPA (7.05) and Adjusted YPA (6.83) were also notably higher than Allen’s.  (6.56, 5.44) for deltas of .49 and more relevantly, 1.39.  So much for the impact of that strong-arm, wouldn't you agree?  Otherwise, reconcile that with data.  

 

Kinda telling how you used apples-to-apples usage based stats where it benefits Jackson in terms of passing here (and I'm more than willing to argue Allen's BY FAR the better passer at this point in their respective careers) but went to the almost completely useless per-start rushing yardage stat instead of the more commonly (and way more insightful) used Yards per Attempt...where Allen crushes Jackson 7.1 to 4.7.

[TPS]

11 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

22 is now "almost 25"?  

 

After the bye we scored 132 points in 6 games.  22/game.  Check me if I'm wrong.  

 

Before week 17 we were averaging a perfect 18 points/game.  

 

It was only against Miami, a team in disarray, with the 27th-ranked yardage and scoring defense in an emotionally charged home-game that bumped that up to even 22, still below average on its own against season NFL standards.  

 

Fixing the OL is only half the battle, the other half is fixing Allen's short game.  If we improve the OL, a tall order on its own given the plethora of team needs, and even with better WRs, if Allen continues to not see them on his reads then it won't matter.  

 

Here's to hoping that will happen, but until it does the OL isn't going to make nearly as much of a difference as that will.  

 

What's your take on why the media is slamming Lamar Jackson who had more rushing yards than Allen, despite starting fewer games, but praising Allen when statistically Jackson's the better short-medium passer and given that Jackson's 6-2 as a starter whereas Allen's 5-6?  

 

I mistakenly thought the Jets game was after the bye week. I was counting that game, as you can see by my first sentence.  

[oldmanfan]

Add some more talent.  Adding a competent ST coach and an O line coach in synch with the OC should help.  More experience for our young guys.  All these are obvious of course, but what's needed for continued improvement.

[corta765]

I like your analytics and I am a believer to an extent. For me the Bills making the playoffs they need to do the following:

 

Record wise

-6-2 home record minimum. This guarantees that you can go .500 on the road. Personally I think they could win every game at home in 2019.

-NFC North win 3 of 4. I think Giants & Redskins should absolutely be wins its getting one of DAL or PHI

-AFC East win 4 of 6. MIA should be a sweep which means you need to split NYJ and NE who are both winnable but tougher

-AFC North win 2 of 4. CLE is actually the game I fear most with CIN & PIT in Chaos and BAL being a team at home we can beat. 

-Crossover games win 1 of 2. DEN at home should be a win and I think the Bills can win in TEN.

 

Scoring Wise:

-Get the offense to 23 ppg. The offense once Allen returned actually averaged 24 pts but teams will adjust. 23 pts is still a sizeable leap for any team and even with added playmakers 25 pts seems still a bit high to get.

-Allen averages 60% on passes and gets to 3500 yards. I think at those numbers the offense is clicking and near Top 10

-Add a half a second more of protection for Allen.

[Mat68]

They cant just throw money around.  If a true impact player is on the market they have the ability to pay if needed.  I expect the majority of the FA to be 3 to 4 years in the league that either under performed based off their potential or ones who look like over achievers based off system and percieved talent level.  Alot of teams have money.  Be aggressive for want you want.  There is a fine line between Jeff Lowrey and Dan Snyder.

[Ronin]

51 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Kinda telling how you used apples-to-apples usage based stats where it benefits Jackson in terms of passing here (and I'm more than willing to argue Allen's BY FAR the better passer at this point in their respective careers) but went to the almost completely useless per-start rushing yardage stat instead of the more commonly (and way more insightful) used Yards per Attempt...where Allen crushes Jackson 7.1 to 4.7.

 

Actually, I deliberately ignored the YPC averages.  But since you insist on using them, let's.  Having said that I can't help but notice that you entirely leap-frogged, or was it completely ignored, the premise as to why?  

 

So your argument in then, your belief is obviously, and differing from mine, that the rushing contributions of a QB are what significantly contribute to their potential, and once achieved to the actual, status as a "franchise QB" then?  

 

As I see it, if one strips away the rushing performances of both QBs, Jackson and Allen, they've both extremely bottom-dwelling as passers, for rookies much more as NFL starters.  

 

Is that correct?  Becuase that would explain the difference in our views.  As well, if you believe that to be the case, assuming that you wouldn't be arguing on that premise given my argument, can you cite some modern historical evidence or basis for your position?  

 

Also, I'm curious, as the team overall goes, define for us the role that you expect Allen to play in terms of running the ball in the future, both short as well as long-terms, and please, be specific.  

 

 

50 minutes ago, TPS said:

I mistakenly thought the Jets game was after the bye week. I was counting that game, as you can see by my first sentence.  

 

An easy mistake.  Even so, who started that game?  It wasn't Allen, eh.  

 

What does that say, that arguably our best game this season offensively came with a nothing journeyman QB at the helm and one that hadn't played much recently on top of that?  

Edited January 7, 2019 by TaskersGhost

[LSHMEAB]

On 1/3/2019 at 3:11 PM, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

This is why I would be greatly disturbed if we draft a defensive player in Round 1. We cannot afford NOT to address our offensive holes.

I would have zero problem drafting a stud defensive lineman at 9. Did you see the part where our scoring defense was below average? The myth that the defense was "tired" is just that; a myth. The Bills time of possession was middle of the pack. What you see with this defense is that they are very close to being top tier. Like one player away close. Like one stud edge or interior pass rusher close. They need a game changer in the front 7. Spend all other resources on offense for all I care, but get me one difference maker at DL.

[foreboding]

You see Baltimore get in? So can the Bills-

Our QB runs almost as well, throws a ton better.

 

Add quality depth everywhere and I think two new O-Linemen, Pass rusher, #1 WR and more Chris Ivory like RB's and a year of experience, and this team is gonna win 9 or 10 next year. I am not worried about our LB or Secondary at all.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

7 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

I would have zero problem drafting a stud defensive lineman at 9. Did you see the part where our scoring defense was below average? The myth that the defense was "tired" is just that; a myth. The Bills time of possession was middle of the pack. What you see with this defense is that they are very close to being top tier. Like one player away close. Like one stud edge or interior pass rusher close. They need a game changer in the front 7. Spend all other resources on offense for all I care, but get me one difference maker at DL.

 

I'm pleasantly surprised by this post. Kudos to you, sir!

 

[LSHMEAB]

3 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

I'm pleasantly surprised by this post. Kudos to you, sir!

 

I stand by my criticism of the RZ defense, scoring defense etc., but it largely stems from frustration. They are CLOSE. There are so many things they need to get right on offense, but the defense is one impact player away IMO.

[TPS]

13 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

An easy mistake.  Even so, who started that game?  It wasn't Allen, eh.  

 

What does that say, that arguably our best game this season offensively came with a nothing journeyman QB at the helm and one that hadn't played much recently on top of that?  

Yes, as I also acknowledged in that sentence. 

My point is that their offense is capable of taking a significant (Allen) leap (related to their season ppg average) in 2019 by Fixing the O-line and adding a few weapons.  

[Nick the Greek]

Defense keeps hittin, offense starts clickin. 

 

Thats what hat we need. 

[Nextmanup]

On 1/3/2019 at 4:50 PM, TPS said:

They averaged almost 25 ppg after the bye, with Allen at QB in all but the first Jets game.  Certainly doable.

If they fix the O-line/running game, they can be a playoff team.

That's a little misleading though, as the quality of our opponents dropped off dramatically in the latter part of the season.

 

We will not have an entire season in 2019 of "after the 2018 bye" type opponents.

 

On paper it doesn't sound that crazy to suggest we can improve by 8 points a game next year, but in reality, as a statistic averaged over 16 games, that represents a significant offensive improvement.

 

Definitely not outside the realms of possibility however.  Largely will depend on how well they fix the offense this offseason, and what Josh Allen's rate of progress is next year.

 

 

[GoBills808]

28 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Actually, I deliberately ignored the YPC averages.  But since you insist on using them, let's.  Having said that I can't help but notice that you entirely leap-frogged, or was it completely ignored, the premise as to why?  

 

So your argument in then, your belief is obviously, and differing from mine, that the rushing contributions of a QB are what significantly contribute to their potential, and once achieved to the actual, status as a "franchise QB" then?  

 

As I see it, if one strips away the rushing performances of both QBs, Jackson and Allen, they've both extremely bottom-dwelling as passers, for rookies much more as NFL starters.  

 

Is that correct?  Becuase that would explain the difference in our views.  As well, if you believe that to be the case, assuming that you wouldn't be arguing on that premise given my argument, can you cite some modern historical evidence or basis for your position?  

 

Also, I'm curious, as the team overall goes, define for us the role that you expect Allen to play in terms of running the ball in the future, both short as well as long-terms, and please, be specific.  

 

 

 

An easy mistake.  Even so, who started that game?  It wasn't Allen, eh.  

 

What does that say, that arguably our best game this season offensively came with a nothing journeyman QB at the helm and one that hadn't played much recently on top of that?  

I personally don’t think QB rush yards have any great predictive value of long term potential. I was responding to the statistics you brought up, one of which QB rush yards per-start is about as irrelevant as can be. That you took from my post an attribution of significance to QB rush yards vis a vis potential is something you have to deal with, not me.

 

Again, if you want to compare Jackson and Allen as prospects solely on their passing, I’m more than willing. Jackson, since being installed as starter, has operated a very simple single-read option offense not unlike previous iterations of Greg Roman-influenced systems designed to work around the skill set of mobile QBs with significant limitations re: typical NFL passing concepts. What the Chargers did yesterday was to simply expose the issues of that system and in turn the problems with QBs like Jackson. Whereas Allen’s problems are primarily a function of relative pro experience and mechanics (both correctable, as shown by his improvement over the course of the year), Jackson’s issues at this point are a function of his limitations as a passer wrt pocket presence, ability to operate under center, comfort identifying reads/defenses etc and tend historically to be exploited as teams get more film on him a la Kaepernick and Taylor.

 

 

[Ronin]

18 minutes ago, TPS said:

Yes, as I also acknowledged in that sentence. 

My point is that their offense is capable of taking a significant (Allen) leap (related to their season ppg average) in 2019 by Fixing the O-line and adding a few weapons.  

 

Yeah, we'll see.  As I see it, Allen took longer to throw than ANY QB in the league this year, which also suggests that the OL didn't play nearly as bad as everyone thinks/says.  The times that I watched there was some pressure as there is on all teams, but I also saw plenty of times where he had much time to throw and simply botched it.  

 

I should have noted the games and times but wasn't thinking about it at the time and frankly, didn't think I'd have to, but I saw countless times where there was someone wide-open in the flats or on a wheel-route or fade, etc. on plays that would have gone for considerable yardaged, that he simply missed and threw incomplete OTM or downfield and at least once resulting in an INT.  

 

That's what I'm talking about in terms of his short-game, it simply isn't there, not even close.  

 

Here's the thing, I'm not sure that talent alleviates that.  If he's not seeing things, he's not seeing things.  We can argue about why, compare to other rookie QBs, etc. until we're blue in the face, but if he's going to become a franchise QB then THAT SPECIFICALLY, is going to have to change.  Here's the proglem with that, he's struggled with that according to everyone that's known him in both HS and college.  He continues to struggle with it now.  Not that I have the answer, but what are the odds that it changes in the NFL?  I can't imagine that they're high.  That's a tremendously difficult thing to coach-up if it's coachable at all and IMO it is not coachable.   

[oldmanfan]

5 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Yeah, we'll see.  As I see it, Allen took longer to throw than ANY QB in the league this year, which also suggests that the OL didn't play nearly as bad as everyone thinks/says.  The times that I watched there was some pressure as there is on all teams, but I also saw plenty of times where he had much time to throw and simply botched it.  

 

I should have noted the games and times but wasn't thinking about it at the time and frankly, didn't think I'd have to, but I saw countless times where there was someone wide-open in the flats or on a wheel-route or fade, etc. on plays that would have gone for considerable yardaged, that he simply missed and threw incomplete OTM or downfield and at least once resulting in an INT.  

 

That's what I'm talking about in terms of his short-game, it simply isn't there, not even close.  

 

Here's the thing, I'm not sure that talent alleviates that.  If he's not seeing things, he's not seeing things.  We can argue about why, compare to other rookie QBs, etc. until we're blue in the face, but if he's going to become a franchise QB then THAT SPECIFICALLY, is going to have to change.  Here's the proglem with that, he's struggled with that according to everyone that's known him in both HS and college.  He continues to struggle with it now.  Not that I have the answer, but what are the odds that it changes in the NFL?  I can't imagine that they're high.  That's a tremendously difficult thing to coach-up if it's coachable at all and IMO it is not coachable.   

If you watch his progression this year you can easily see he was doing better at going through his progressions.   To say it's not coachable is laughable.  How many rookie QBs in history play their first year and are expert in seeing the entire field, making reads, etc?  Very few if any.  You're expectations are completely over the top.

[Ronin]

32 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I personally don’t think QB rush yards have any great predictive value of long term potential. I was responding to the statistics you brought up, one of which QB rush yards per-start is about as irrelevant as can be. That you took from my post an attribution of significance to QB rush yards vis a vis potential is something you have to deal with, not me.

 

Again, if you want to compare Jackson and Allen as prospects solely on their passing, I’m more than willing. Jackson, since being installed as starter, has operated a very simple single-read option offense not unlike previous iterations of Greg Roman-influenced systems designed to work around the skill set of mobile QBs with significant limitations re: typical NFL passing concepts. What the Chargers did yesterday was to simply expose the issues of that system and in turn the problems with QBs like Jackson. Whereas Allen’s problems are primarily a function of relative pro experience and mechanics (both correctable, as shown by his improvement over the course of the year), Jackson’s issues at this point are a function of his limitations as a passer wrt pocket presence, ability to operate under center, comfort identifying reads/defenses etc and tend historically to be exploited as teams get more film on him a la Kaepernick and Taylor.

 

 

 

Say what you will, but in terms of efficiencies, Jackson's numbers are better.  At the end of the day it's numbers, not potential or correctability, that counts and assists in putting points on the board, which could very well be why the Ravens with no more offensive talent than we have as the Ravens have scored nearly as many points in weeks 11-17 under Jackson than we've scored all year.  

 

The arguments for Allen are all these mystical elusive prognostications of future success without the evidence at present to back them up, while the if the criticism of Jackson holds sway then he'll be a backup, ala Taylor, in a few seasons.  Could be, but my point entirely is that two different standards are being applied.  

 

In another thread talking about Jackson I noted all the comments slamming Jackson that could very well be applied to Allen but which for Allen in the very same thread are entirely excuses.  That to me simply doesn't seem to be good business in the realm of analysis.  

 

Yes, I realize that we have different takes, but mine's rooted in NFL history and the traits that typically define Franchise QBs.  Sorry, but at the present time, and apart from intangibles where Allen's got them all just about if not outright, and better than any of his draft peers except for possibly Mayfield, the other far more substantive stuff simply isn't there.  We can argue about that, but I don't see it.  

30 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

.To say it's not coachable is laughable.  How many rookie QBs in history play their first year and are expert in seeing the entire field, making reads, etc?  Very few if any.  .

 

How many that don't go on to become franchise QBs?  

[dakrider]

25 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Yeah, we'll see.  As I see it, Allen took longer to throw than ANY QB in the league this year, which also suggests that the OL didn't play nearly as bad as everyone thinks/says.  The times that I watched there was some pressure as there is on all teams, but I also saw plenty of times where he had much time to throw and simply botched it.  

 

I should have noted the games and times but wasn't thinking about it at the time and frankly, didn't think I'd have to, but I saw countless times where there was someone wide-open in the flats or on a wheel-route or fade, etc. on plays that would have gone for considerable yardaged, that he simply missed and threw incomplete OTM or downfield and at least once resulting in an INT.  

 

That's what I'm talking about in terms of his short-game, it simply isn't there, not even close.  

 

Here's the thing, I'm not sure that talent alleviates that.  If he's not seeing things, he's not seeing things.  We can argue about why, compare to other rookie QBs, etc. until we're blue in the face, but if he's going to become a franchise QB then THAT SPECIFICALLY, is going to have to change.  Here's the proglem with that, he's struggled with that according to everyone that's known him in both HS and college.  He continues to struggle with it now.  Not that I have the answer, but what are the odds that it changes in the NFL?  I can't imagine that they're high.  That's a tremendously difficult thing to coach-up if it's coachable at all and IMO it is not coachable.   

Allen extended plays by running outside the pocket, he bought himself time but it didn't help his accuracy at all, but it did help reduce the number of sacks.  Early in the year he jumped out of the pocket too quickly, but became more comfortable in the pocket later in the year.  Also, in those first 5 games your right, Allen was not seeing the field well.  He was not ready to take the field as a starter in game 2.  Allen didn't even know how to adequately prepare for those first several games and there wasn't really anyone there to help him do that.  After that his progress became noticeable.  

 

Many of those short passes, such as the quick slants require working on timing more than accuracy.  That is something practice will improve.  

But as far as next year, I think the Bills can easily average over 24 points a game.  Defensively, I don't know exactly where they'll end up.  

The 2 big things that need to improve imo are the running game overall, JA can't be the top rusher every other game and special teams also need to improve.  Field position is a very underrated stat.  

[Ronin]

7 minutes ago, dakrider said:

Allen extended plays by running outside the pocket, he bought himself time but it didn't help his accuracy at all, but it did help reduce the number of sacks.  Early in the year he jumped out of the pocket too quickly, but became more comfortable in the pocket later in the year.  Also, in those first 5 games your right, Allen was not seeing the field well.  He was not ready to take the field as a starter in game 2.  Allen didn't even know how to adequately prepare for those first several games and there wasn't really anyone there to help him do that.  After that his progress became noticeable.  

 

Many of those short passes, such as the quick slants require working on timing more than accuracy.  That is something practice will improve.  

But as far as next year, I think the Bills can easily average over 24 points a game.  Defensively, I don't know exactly where they'll end up.  

The 2 big things that need to improve imo are the running game overall, JA can't be the top rusher every other game and special teams also need to improve.  Field position is a very underrated stat.  

 

Well, he also stepped into (or away from) a whole bunch of sacks, which is another issue altogether involving pocket-awareness, and something that numerous announcers and writers pointed out so it's not like it's a secret or anything.  

 

We agree that Allen cannot be the top rusher, but my point is even simpler than that.  Look, he may be our QB for a decade, but if he doesn't end up being a "frachise caliber QB" then drafting him as such will have been a waste. If all we get is Cam Newton, and right now Newton's short-game is world's better than Allen's, then the strategy to draft him will have failed.  Newton's not a franchise QB.  

 

My point all along in numerous posts, is that if Allen is to achieve that status, and that's all I'm talking about here, I'm not talking about whether he can function like yet another QB to keep the seat warm until we get a true franchise QB, then he's going to have to very seriously address a bunch of issues involving his short-game.  

 

IMO the more he runs the more likely he is sustain a very severe injury.  I mean isn't that common sense?  And yeah, I get it, he's "very durable for a QB" and all that stuff, sorry, but that doesn't make him immune to serious injury.  

 

Also I've heard absolutely no one factor in now that team's know Allen how they'll plan against us for his skillset, whatever that happens to be.  As of now not even Allen's rushing is winning us games.  In the four big rushing games he's had we're 2-2.  

 

We're 4-3 when Allen throws for a TD.  We're 1-4 when he doesn't.  That should spell it out.