Bucky Brooks: The Blueprint Buffalo Should Replicate to Maximize Josh Allen's Abilities

[26CornerBlitz]

Saquon Barkley validating Giants' decision; Pete Carroll for COY

 

By Bucky Brooks - NFL.com Analyst

 

Former NFL player and scout Bucky Brooks knows the ins and outs of this league, providing keen insight in his notebook. The topics of this edition include:

 

The Blueprint Buffalo Should Replicate to Maximize Josh Allen's Abilities.

 

All aboard the Josh Allen Experience? OK, it's definitely too premature to be comparing the Billsrookie quarterback to Michael Vick in any capacity -- as in, alluding to the former dual-threat playmaker's memorable Nike commercial. That said, it is time to view Allen as a unique talent at the position with an unorthodox game that can produce positive results.

 

Now, I will be the first to admit to being critical of the Wyoming product during the pre-draft process -- his scattershot accuracy was quite concerning -- but I did believe he could be a Cam Newton-like playmaker with a unique game that a team could build an offense around. When Buffalo selected Allen seventh overall, I immediately thought of Bills head coach Sean McDermott and general manager Brandon Beane, and how they'd both been in Carolina for Newton's MVP season that ended in the Super Bowl.

 

Then I saw Allen's second NFL start in Week 3, when he accounted for 235 yards of total offense and three scores in a 27-6 upset win at Minnesota. The shocking performance gave the football world a glimpse at Allen's talent and potential in an offense that's tailor-made for his skills as a mobile playmaker with A-plus arm talent.

 

Studying the All-22 Coaches Film from that stunning win over the Vikings, I noted that the Bills used a variety of designed QB runs and zone-read concepts to showcase Allen's talent as a runner. The 6-foot-5, 237-pound quarterback bedeviled Mike Zimmer's defense with his combination of skills as a run-pass threat at the position. From his quick-rhythm completions on screens to his teardrop-like deep balls to his impromptu scrambles, Allen terrorized the Vikings as a mobile playmaker. Although it wasn't always pretty, it was effective. And the Bills' coaching staff certainly flashed enough creativity to build a dynamic offense that would help the rookie play to his strengths as a runner and deep-ball thrower. That said, it was apparent Allen was still a work in progress as a QB1 and his coaches would need to find a way to minimize his weaknesses to give Buffalo a chance to win games.

 

After watching Allen become the first quarterback to rush for 100-plus yards in back-to-back games while surpassing Vick as the quarterback with the most rushing yards in a three-game span (335 yards from Week 12-14), I had to go back to the tape to check out No. 17's evolution over the course of his first NFL season. Before I really dug in, though, I took a look at Allen's numbers and was shocked by his inefficiencies as a passer. Allen ranks last among qualified quarterbacks in completion percentage (52.4), pass yards per game (169.4), touchdown-to-interception ratio (5:9) and passer rating (63.3). He also ranks 31st in yards per attempt (6.3). Those numbers are not inspiring, to say the least, but Allen was expected to struggle as a rookie starter, especially given Buffalo's suspect receiving corps. The Billsnot only lack a legitimate WR1, but the team doesn't have an established complementary playmaker outside of Charles Clay and maybe Zay Jones. To his credit, Allen has shown glimpses of being an effective passer between the numbers on intermediate routes like curls and digs. He also flashes enough arm strength to make "wow" throws on the move, which makes him a dangerous player.

[LSHMEAB]

3 minutes ago, I am the egg man said:

 

Charles Clay is a complementary player....since when ?

He's the first to point out when a fellow teammate got a quality haircut. 

[US Egg]

Just now, 26CornerBlitz said:

The Bills not only lack a legitimate WR1, the team doesn't have an established complementary play maker outside of Charles Clay and maybe Zay Jones. 

Charles Clay is an established complementary play maker....since when ?

[Ramza86]

I thought he was going to end up saying something along the lines of how deceiving those numbers are.

 

[Phil The Thrill]

Sounds like Bucky actually is more bullish on Allen compared to Bill Barnwell.  What’s the difference?  Buckster actually has played in the NFL and at a high level in college.  Plus he has scouting experience in the NFL.

 

Barnwell has a degree in English and writes for ESPN.  So I guess that qualifies him to evaluate QB’s 

[LSHMEAB]

5 minutes ago, Ramza86 said:

I thought he was going to end up saying something along the lines of how deceiving those numbers are.

 

How are the numbers deceiving? We've had a few more drops than the average team, but nothing egregious.

 

Josh needs to get better as a passer and the hope and expectation is that comes with time. There was nothing grotesquely unfair in that snippet.

[One Buffalo]

3 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

How are the numbers deceiving? We've had a few more drops than the average team, but nothing egregious.

 

 

Kelvin Benjamin... if you take away Allen's throws to KB, you will find that his numbers look much better.  The stat I saw was that Allen's percentage goes up to 59% if you take out throws  to KB and Holmes.  

[Bray Wyatt]

I thought that was a fair and balanced take

[LSHMEAB]

1 minute ago, One Buffalo said:

 

Kelvin Benjamin... if you take away Allen's throws to KB, you will find that his numbers look much better.  The stat I saw was that Allen's percentage goes up to 59% if you take out throws  to KB and Holmes.  

They didn't play against the Jets and his completion percentage was 50%. Even the skeptics are encouraged by his play, but there's no need to grasp at straws. He's got some work to do as a passer. With his mobility, he doesn't need to be a Drew Brees type, but he still needs to improve. It's really not that bad.

[starrymessenger]

To me BB nailed this down about right. 

With JA is all about whether he can improve as a passer. He's certainly has a way to go but if he gets there, scheme assisted or not, he will dominate consistently. We all see certain comparables amongst players who share some of his skillset: Ben, Elway, Cam, Steve Young, etc...but I don't think I've ever seen a player quite like Allen. Make or break its bound to be a fascinating ride.

[BuffAlone]

Allen "terrorized" the Vikings. 

That was the best quote, by far

[Buffalo716]

1 hour ago, I am the egg man said:

Charles Clay is an established complementary play maker....since when ?

He may be saying that because outside of this terrible season he was our leading pass catcher 2-3 seasons 

 

He has went to crap but he was a steady pass catcher with TT

[FearLess Price]

He sounds on point. If your not a homer

[One Buffalo]

37 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

They didn't play against the Jets and his completion percentage was 50%. Even the skeptics are encouraged by his play, but there's no need to grasp at straws. He's got some work to do as a passer. With his mobility, he doesn't need to be a Drew Brees type, but he still needs to improve. It's really not that bad.

 

Agreed... and I too think it is an overall good analysis... pretty fair.  But the KB factor is certainly more of the story than many realize.  

[Boca BIlls]

That had me laughing so hard

[LSHMEAB]

Just now, One Buffalo said:

 

Agreed... and I too think it is an overall good analysis... pretty fair.  But the KB factor is certainly more of the story than many realize.  

I'm pretty sure one thing everyone on this board can agree on is that KB sucks.

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

They didn't play against the Jets and his completion percentage was 50%. Even the skeptics are encouraged by his play, but there's no need to grasp at straws. He's got some work to do as a passer. With his mobility, he doesn't need to be a Drew Brees type, but he still needs to improve. It's really not that bad.

 

Here is where its deceiving.  There is a bigger story around Allen than the stats show.

1. Drops, way too many drops.
2. Pass Protection, he constantly under duress.  This leads to either poor throws at times where he trusts his arm to do too much or he has to throw it away.
3. Penalties, he has had several great throws, even exceptional ones taken away by penalties.
4. Down and Long all the time.  See penalties above as well as the inability to gain yards by our RB's has us frequently in 2nd/3rd and 10 or more yards needed.  
5. WR's do not get separation.  Kid already has to learn NFL defenses, and our WR's struggle to get open on their routes compounds this.  In fact, Zay is mostly a ghost UNLESS Allen is running for his life where can slip away finally from a defender trying to hold coverage that long.  Zay isnt getting open often enough on his actual route.
6. No running game.  This kid in the 3 games since coming back has personally accounted for about 85% of all the offensive yards this team has produced.  You can see him getting winded end of games even, I mean he is already adjusting to a longer season.  But add in the extra exertion from the runs and all the big hits he takes too.  Having to do it all is just making things harder on him.

More importantly...Allen is NOT the same kid as he was before he got hurt.  There is a clear difference in his level of play since coming back where you can see a lot of growth.  He is literally a Clay dropped pass and a ST Blunder away from being 6-2 as a starter and 3-0 since coming back from injury.  Heck, he might have even won the Houston game had he not gotten hurt and allowed Pickerman to give the game away.  So when people point to his year long cummalitve stats to gauge how he is doing now, they are not correctly analyzing his growth and improvement.  

 

No one is claiming he is a finished product by any means, but when you watch the tape, especially the last 3 games, there are very few just missed or way off passes.  I mean he is literally just a few more passes per game being completed away from 60+% completion percentage.  Now factor in all those things, and you can see a ton of places those few more completions can come from that are factoring in from failures of the people around him.  

 

For example...how many more completions you think he will make when you he gets more chances of 3rd and 3 instead of the several times a game he is in 3rd and 10, 3rd and 12, 3rd and 15, 3rd and 20?  How many more will he have when he has less drops?  How many more will he have when he has better receivers who can get open early in routes?  How many more will he have when he has time in the pocket?

 

You see, if you add just 1 more completion per game more with improvement on each of those issues, he would be over a 60% passer already.  Now factor in him as individual continuing to also improve and its not hard to see how he can quickly get above 60%.  

Edited December 15, 2018 by Alphadawg7

[Big Turk]

2 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

How are the numbers deceiving? We've had a few more drops than the average team, but nothing egregious.

 

Josh needs to get better as a passer and the hope and expectation is that comes with time. There was nothing grotesquely unfair in that snippet.

1) Allen's average air yards per pass are by far the most in the NFL. The longer the pass, the lower the completion percentage.

 

2) Allen has more throwaways per game than pretty much any other QB...many plays are designed rollouts where if nobody is open and he cant run he is told to throw it away. 

 

3) Allen doesn't have a lot of easy checkdown completions to pad his completion percentage because many times Allen doesn't even have a checkdown by design. His checkdown is to run for big chunks of yards.

 

4)Bills WR's have the worst seperation metrics of any WRs in the NFL. This means there are smaller windows for Allen to throw the ball into. This also means more contested catches and drops.

 

5) Allen doesn't throw a lot of passes in a game so if he has a combined 8 throwaways and drops, that affects his completion percentage much more than a guy throwing it 45 times a game.

Edited December 15, 2018 by matter2003

[LSHMEAB]

1 minute ago, matter2003 said:

1) Allen's average air yards per pass are by far the most in the NFL. The longer the pass, the lower the completion percentage.

 

2) Allen has more throwaways per game than pretty much any other QB...many plays are designed rollouts where if nobody is open and he cant run he is tols to throw it away. 

 

3) Allen doesn't have a lot of easy checkdown completions to pad his completion percentage because many times Allen doesn't even have a checkdown by design. His checkdown is to run for big chunks of yards.

 

4)Bills WR's have the worst seperation metrics of any WRs in the NFL. This means there are smaller windows for Allen to throw the ball into. This also means more contested catches and drops.

 

Brooks pointed out the lack of weapons on offense. Do you really think casual readers want to hear these points you made valid as they may be?

[TtownBillsFan]

The casual, non-Bills fan probably doesn't.  But the points hold merit, and to those on this board, should give one hope above what Bucky's and Barnwell's reports, alone, would relay.  But you probably already know that.