Playoffs at 8-8 this year

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

13 hours ago, The Senator said:

 

There will be growth in the Spring.

I might start some heirloom tomatoes from seed this year.  ?

[row_33]

Rarely 8-8 might get a division title, but not in the division with the Brady Pats

 

 

 

 

even in the best years of the Kellly Era I wouldn’t have demanded they take 5 of 6 games

 

 

[BillsFan130]

7 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Did Mahomes need to play all those games during his rookie year? Time on the bench can be just as useful as time in the game, especially if you're really not yet sure what's going on around you and even more especially if you have some mechanical habits that need to be grooved but won't if you're spending your time during the week memorizing game plans and your times during the game trying to survive and often going back to old habits.

I disagree. Mahomes is a very special case. He sat behind one of the biggest class acts in the NFL in Alex Smith who apparently taught him everything as they went on, and learned from Andy Reid and Matt Nagy. 2 brilliant offensive coaches and 1 very smart veteran QB.

 

Allen does not have that luxury needless to say, nor do most rookie QBs when they come in the league.

 

Getting the player reps and letting them read the defences and learning from the mistakes is by far the best way to learn IMO.

Edited November 22, 2018 by billsfan11

[row_33]

Mahomes is a great story for 2018, may he continue this past his first season of national interest.

 

[PromoTheRobot]

23 hours ago, MClem06 said:

I don't think 5-1 in the last stretch is completely out of the question if our QB of the future can find a grove.

 

Or if we start Magic Matt Barkley.

16 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

 

Yeah, that's what all the experts thought last year.

[row_33]

18 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

Yeah, that's what all the experts thought last year.

 

That's why men eventually get to the placing of wagers, to get whim wishing and their dumb statements to finally STFU.

 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

19 hours ago, The Drought said:

Maybe 6-9-1 will make it.

 

...LOL....remember the year the Seahawks made it at 7-9?............

[row_33]

11 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...LOL....remember the year the Seahawks made it at 7-9?............

 

sometimes its the product of a Machevellian winning just enough to squeak out a division crown or playoff spot

 

sometimes its the product of a truly rancid division (see the Norris division in the NHL for what seemed like a million years in the 80s and 90s)

 

the Pats are in the division, 8-8 ain't gonna cut it

 

 

Edited November 22, 2018 by row_33

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 minute ago, row_33 said:

 

sometimes its the product of a Machevellian winning just enough to squeak out a division crown or playoff spot

 

sometimes its the product of a truly rancid division (see the Norris division in the NHL for what seemed like a million years in the 80s and 90s)

 

the Pats are in the division, 8-8 ain't gonna cut it

 

 

 

...certainly agree....and it is highly doubtful we finish at 8-8 anyway....hard to believe the Pats MISSED at 11-5 the year Brady went down and Cassel led the charge....

[row_33]

9 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...certainly agree....and it is highly doubtful we finish at 8-8 anyway....hard to believe the Pats MISSED at 11-5 the year Brady went down and Cassel led the charge....

 

 

not sure how Brady retiring is going to mean the Pats win less than 9 games with the coach and any castaways he can mold into a decent team on a given Sunday

 

 

 

 

[without a drought]

Before the season starts, 3-13 can mathematically make the playoffs.

[row_33]

28 minutes ago, The Drought said:

Before the season starts, 3-13 can mathematically make the playoffs.

 

all 4 teams would die of shame and embarrassment, so it isn't really possible

 

 

[Thurman#1]

5 hours ago, billsfan11 said:

I disagree. Mahomes is a very special case. He sat behind one of the biggest class acts in the NFL in Alex Smith who apparently taught him everything as they went on, and learned from Andy Reid and Matt Nagy. 2 brilliant offensive coaches and 1 very smart veteran QB.

 

Allen does not have that luxury needless to say, nor do most rookie QBs when they come in the league.

 

Getting the player reps and letting them read the defences and learning from the mistakes is by far the best way to learn IMO.

 

 

I like Alex Smith, but who Mahomes sat behind is entirely immaterial to the effect sitting had on him.

 

Probably the four best QBs in the league are Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Mahomes. None of them were top five picks. They were very different types and were chosen in different areas, 6th round, 2nd round, #24 and #10. They did NOT all "have the luxury" of sitting behind a great player who will teach him everything or having "2 brilliant offensive coaches." One of the few things they do have in common is that they all sat out for their rookie year. Probably the four best in the league and they all sat as rookies and let the game come to them.

 

And yeah, learning from mistakes is really important. So is learning from doing the right thing. But it doesn't have to be your own mistakes and good plays you learn from. It's perfectly possible to learn from other people's mistakes. You can learn reading defences from watching film ... in the early days of your career, it's probably far more effective as you can concentrate on what the defence is doing and what you can learn from it rather than worrying about what you need to know to start the next week.

 

 

Edited November 22, 2018 by Thurman#1

[row_33]

wait for Mahomes to put up a few seasons before calling him Brady/Brees/Rodgers

 

 

 

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

maybe, some year they wont be sitting in a (presently at 3-7) w/l position where they have to depend on "scenarios" or a "miracle pass/catch/td" to control their destiny?

 

been a long time coming since the days sitting at 8-2 or 7-3 this time of the season and then go on to have the asterisk of either clinching a playoff berth or the division or home field. all of which did occur some time ago in the late 20th century.

 

the only way I can approach the rest of this season without getting any real hopes up, is one game at a time. as weak as the afc looks record wise, 8-8 could possibly land a wildcard?

 

in the bills scenario, finishing 8-8 with the only loss being to the lions would still only give them a slight chance at a wildcard? I see no real shot realistically if they lose another conference/division game down the stretch. so yes, they would have to beat the patsies** and win 5 out of the next 6 a long with the "scenarios".

 

one game at a time, 6 to go.

Edited November 22, 2018 by no name

[BillsFan130]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I like Alex Smith, but who Mahomes sat behind is entirely immaterial to the effect sitting had on him.

 

Probably the four best QBs in the league are Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Mahomes. None of them were top five picks. They were very different types and were chosen in different areas, 6th round, 2nd round, #24 and #10. They did NOT all "have the luxury" of sitting behind a great player who will teach him everything or having "2 brilliant offensive coaches." One of the few things they do have in common is that they all sat out for their rookie year. Probably the four best in the league and they all sat as rookies and let the game come to them.

 

And yeah, learning from mistakes is really important. So is learning from doing the right thing. But it doesn't have to be your own mistakes and good plays you learn from. It's perfectly possible to learn from other people's mistakes. You can learn reading defences from watching film ... in the early days of your career, it's probably far more effective as you can concentrate on what the defence is doing and what you can learn from it rather than worrying about what you need to know to start the next week.

 

 

Fair points and thanks for your reply.

 

I don’t see it the same as you personally though. I’m not saying there aren’t instances where sitting behind someone can’t be beneficial.

 

But do you honestly think A Rod, Brees or Brady wouldn’t have as much success if they were thrown in their rookie year?

 

I certainly don’t and I don’t think it has any factor at all. In my opinion 

[Thurman#1]

14 hours ago, billsfan11 said:

Fair points and thanks for your reply.

 

I don’t see it the same as you personally though. I’m not saying there aren’t instances where sitting behind someone can’t be beneficial.

 

But do you honestly think A Rod, Brees or Brady wouldn’t have as much success if they were thrown in their rookie year?

 

I certainly don’t and I don’t think it has any factor at all. In my opinion 

 

 

Thanks for your civility. I appreciate it.

 

You ask for my honest reply, and you're not going to like it.

 

Yeah, I absolutely think there's a good chance things wouldn't have gone as well for them without that year / years to learn. A smart, hard-working QB can use a first year on the bench to groove changes to mechanics that can turn out to be career cornerstones, changes that might never have been grooved if not. Mahomes famously stood ten yards or so behind Smith at practices and did the same drops, same movements and saw the same things, and he also spent a ton of time in the film room learning defences and how to handle them. Young QBs can spend a ton of time doing mental reps and film study and can put things together mentally so that when they get their chance, they're far more prepared and ready, so the reps are more valuable and they can concentrate on details and subtleties far more than the rookie who's just trying to survive.

 

The Chargers thought so too. They didn't put Brees in despite having a QB in front of him who was having an awful season. They won 5 games that year, they were really bad and bad QBing was a big part of that, as the guy in front of Brees was the post-Buffalo Doug Flutie, throwing 15 TDs and 18 INTs, putting up a dink-and-dunk 6.6 YPA and an absolutely awful 72.0 passer rating. They didn't keep Brees on the bench because they wanted to keep their playoff chances alive or because they thought the 39 year-old Flutie was the future of the franchise. They did it because they thought it was the best way to give Brees a better chance going forward.

 

 

And it's very very clear that with Rodgers at least, he indeed made huge steps forward during his time on the bench. He was awful in training camp his first three years or so, but when he came in for his fourth year, with very little game experience under his belt, he was very suddenly a great deal better.

 

Look at this interview of long-time Packers beat writer Bob McGinn:

 

The MMQB: "You documented how fortunate it was that Aaron Rodgers didn’t have to play the first couple of years—he just wasn’t ready."

 

McGinn: “He was a very poor player here for his first two summers and regular-season practices. Fortunately for him, and he knows that down deep, he didn’t have to play early. His delivery was a mess, bad body language, he didn’t know how to deal with teammates. He learned so much from Brett Favre on how to in some ways be one of the guys and relate, and he became much more of a leader. He was really poor and how many great players have ever had a start like that? Not that many. A lot of scouts look at that exhibition tape those first two years and he was a little bit better the third year, but not to any degree, and then he just really developed. He lost a lot of close games in ’08, but by ’09 he was playing great and by 2010 he was maybe the best in the business. "

 

https://www.si.com/mmqb/2017/06/13/themmqb-exit-interview-bob-mcginn-green-bay-packers-milwaukee-journal-sentinel-nfl-beat-writer

 

 

 

The widespread NFL opinion on this is that yes it is possible to ruin a QB by playing him too early. No, not every QB needs time on the bench. Some are ready. Others will never be ready no matter what you do. But some guys need development more than others. It doesn't hurt and it's extremely helpful in terms of better understanding by the time you get out there. Hell, Josh Allen himself has himself been quoted saying this.

[BillsFan1988]

On 11/21/2018 at 5:50 PM, billsredneck1 said:

just looked at indy's schedule. they play miami at home this week...hmmm...think about how that could work to our benefit....

 

anyway then they have texans/titans/cowboys/giants and jags. they might just fall off....

Indy is the real deal. They started the season slow but played every game tough. Luck hasn't been sacked in a month. Indy will make the playoffs and possibly win the wildcard. Btw we dropped the ball with Reich he should be here.

[billsredneck1]

3 minutes ago, BillsFan1988 said:

Indy is the real deal. They started the season slow but played every game tough. Luck hasn't been sacked in a month. Indy will make the playoffs and possibly win the wildcard. Btw we dropped the ball with Reich he should be here.

yeah, you're probably right. 100x right with reich. i wanted him and schwartz to take over when marrone left.....oh well.  just praying the jags don't embarrass us.

[BillsFan130]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Thanks for your civility. I appreciate it.

 

You ask for my honest reply, and you're not going to like it.

 

Yeah, I absolutely think there's a good chance things wouldn't have gone as well for them without that year / years to learn. A smart, hard-working QB can use a first year on the bench to groove changes to mechanics that can turn out to be career cornerstones, changes that might never have been grooved if not. Mahomes famously stood ten yards or so behind Smith at practices and did the same drops, same movements and saw the same things, and he also spent a ton of time in the film room learning defences and how to handle them. Young QBs can spend a ton of time doing mental reps and film study and can put things together mentally so that when they get their chance, they're far more prepared and ready, so the reps are more valuable and they can concentrate on details and subtleties far more than the rookie who's just trying to survive.

 

The Chargers thought so too. They didn't put Brees in despite having a QB in front of him who was having an awful season. They won 5 games that year, they were really bad and bad QBing was a big part of that, as the guy in front of Brees was the post-Buffalo Doug Flutie, throwing 15 TDs and 18 INTs, putting up a dink-and-dunk 6.6 YPA and an absolutely awful 72.0 passer rating. They didn't keep Brees on the bench because they wanted to keep their playoff chances alive or because they thought the 39 year-old Flutie was the future of the franchise. They did it because they thought it was the best way to give Brees a better chance going forward.

 

 

And it's very very clear that with Rodgers at least, he indeed made huge steps forward during his time on the bench. He was awful in training camp his first three years or so, but when he came in for his fourth year, with very little game experience under his belt, he was very suddenly a great deal better.

 

Look at this interview of long-time Packers beat writer Bob McGinn:

 

The MMQB: "You documented how fortunate it was that Aaron Rodgers didn’t have to play the first couple of years—he just wasn’t ready."

 

McGinn: “He was a very poor player here for his first two summers and regular-season practices. Fortunately for him, and he knows that down deep, he didn’t have to play early. His delivery was a mess, bad body language, he didn’t know how to deal with teammates. He learned so much from Brett Favre on how to in some ways be one of the guys and relate, and he became much more of a leader. He was really poor and how many great players have ever had a start like that? Not that many. A lot of scouts look at that exhibition tape those first two years and he was a little bit better the third year, but not to any degree, and then he just really developed. He lost a lot of close games in ’08, but by ’09 he was playing great and by 2010 he was maybe the best in the business. "

 

https://www.si.com/mmqb/2017/06/13/themmqb-exit-interview-bob-mcginn-green-bay-packers-milwaukee-journal-sentinel-nfl-beat-writer

 

 

 

The widespread NFL opinion on this is that yes it is possible to ruin a QB by playing him too early. No, not every QB needs time on the bench. Some are ready. Others will never be ready no matter what you do. But some guys need development more than others. It doesn't hurt and it's extremely helpful in terms of better understanding by the time you get out there. Hell, Josh Allen himself has himself been quoted saying this.

Fair enough sir.

 

The way I see it: If a QB, whether he is in his 1st, 3rd, or even 5th year can't handle adversity, and if he's not mentally tough to get over that adversity, then he isn't cut out for the NFL.

 

I am not a believer in QBs getting ruined. Like would David Carr or Alex Smith be All Pros if they sat for a couple years behind Brett Favre? The guy either has what it takes and is mentally tough, or he isn't. 

 

Just the way I see it.

 

All good though! Some people would agree with me, and some would agree with you.

 

Edited November 23, 2018 by billsfan11

[The Senator]

On 11/22/2018 at 6:43 AM, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

I might start some heirloom tomatoes from seed this year.  ?

 

That will require s lot of gardening...

[LTF]

I like the Bills to finish 8-8 and think they will get the tie-breakers and make the playoffs. That is how my simulator worked out.  Week 16 Redskins vs Titans and Week 17 Titans vs Colts are the key games in my simulator. If the offense comes together over the next 6 weeks and the defense continues to play well, I think the Bills will likely be headed back to Gillette stadium for round 3 with the Patriots. Third times a charm.

 

Edited November 23, 2018 by LTF

[billspro]

There is a good chance the Colts win the AFC South, we are not getting in at 8-8. Small chance if we go 9-7.

32 minutes ago, LTF said:

I like the Bills to finish 8-8 and think they will get the tie-breakers and make the playoffs. That is how my simulator worked out.  Week 16 Redskins vs Titans and Week 17 Titans vs Colts are the key games in my simulator. If the offense comes together over the next 6 weeks and the defense continues to play well, I think the Bills will likely be headed back to Gillette stadium for round 3 with the Patriots. Third times a charm.

 

 

The Colts were the best team we played from the AFC South. I think they will find a way to win the division. If you find a scenario where we get in at 8-8 with the Colts and Chargers at 10 wins I will listen.

[LTF]

45 minutes ago, billspro said:

There is a good chance the Colts win the AFC South, we are not getting in at 8-8. Small chance if we go 9-7.

 

The Colts were the best team we played from the AFC South. I think they will find a way to win the division. If you find a scenario where we get in at 8-8 with the Colts and Chargers at 10 wins I will listen.

 

Here was my scenario with all games played through week 17.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html#bal-oak-12=win&buf-jax-12=win&car-sea-12=loss&cin-cle-12=loss&nyj-ne-12=loss&phi-nyg-12=win&tb-sf-12=win&lac-ari-12=win&den-pit-12=loss&ind-mia-12=win&min-gb-12=win&hou-ten-12=win&dal-no-13=loss&atl-bal-13=win&cin-den-13=win&det-lar-13=loss&gb-ari-13=win&hou-cle-13=win&jax-ind-13=win&mia-buf-13=loss&nyg-chi-13=loss&tb-car-13=loss&oak-kc-13=loss&ten-nyj-13=win&ne-min-13=win&sea-sf-13=win&pit-lac-13=win&phi-was-13=win&sea-min-14=win&ten-jax-14=win&buf-nyj-14=win&cle-car-14=loss&gb-atl-14=win&hou-ind-14=win&kc-bal-14=win&mia-ne-14=loss&tb-no-14=loss&was-nyg-14=win&lac-cin-14=win&sf-den-14=win&ari-det-14=loss&dal-phi-14=win&oak-pit-14=loss&chi-lar-14=loss&kc-lac-15=win&nyj-hou-15=loss&den-cle-15=win&atl-ari-15=win&bal-tb-15=win&buf-det-15=win&chi-gb-15=win&cin-oak-15=win&ind-dal-15=win&jax-was-15=win&min-mia-15=win&nyg-ten-15=win&sf-sea-15=loss&pit-ne-15=win&lar-phi-15=win&car-no-15=loss&ten-was-16=loss&lac-bal-16=win&car-atl-16=loss&cle-cin-16=win&dal-tb-16=win&det-min-16=loss&ind-nyg-16=win&mia-jax-16=win&ne-buf-16=win&nyj-gb-16=loss&phi-hou-16=win&ari-lar-16=loss&sf-chi-16=loss&no-pit-16=win&sea-kc-16=loss&oak-den-16=win&bal-cle-17=loss&buf-mia-17=win&gb-det-17=win&hou-jax-17=win&kc-oak-17=win&min-chi-17=win&ne-nyj-17=win&no-car-17=win&nyg-dal-17=win&pit-cin-17=win&tb-atl-17=win&ten-ind-17=win&was-phi-17=win&den-lac-17=loss&lar-sf-17=win&sea-ari-17=win

 

Chargers are in at the 5 seed.

 

I have Bills at 8-8. 1 loss to Patriots.

I have the Colts at 8-8.  3 losses on the road to Jacksonville, Houston, and Tennessee.

I have the Titans 8-8.  3 losses to Texans, Redskins, and at Giants.

 

Bills win 3 team tie-breaker.

Rule 1 Division Tie-breaker goes to Titans over Colts via better Division record.

Rule 2 Head to Head Bills beat Titans. Bills win 3 way tie-breaker.

 

I have the Ravens at 7-9.

I have the Bengals at 7-9.

Edited November 23, 2018 by LTF

[frostbitmic]

  playoff machine ... HAHAHAHAHA

[CodeMonkey]

On 11/22/2018 at 6:43 AM, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

I might start some heirloom tomatoes from seed this year.  ?

 

2 hours ago, The Senator said:

 

That will require s lot of gardening...

 

Which requires a lot of fertilizer ... which is readily available here.

Edited November 23, 2018 by CodeMonkey

[row_33]

38 minutes ago, frostbitmic said:

  playoff machine ... HAHAHAHAHA

 

If the Bills win the next three I will look into this

 

 

[frostbitmic]

The only place that 8-8 will get you in the playoffs this year is the NFC Least

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

3 hours ago, LTF said:

Here was my scenario with all games played through week 17....

After wading through all that, I move we change your screen name from 'LTF' to 'WTF'.  ?

Edited November 24, 2018 by Ridgewaycynic2013

[Thurman#1]

On 11/24/2018 at 1:40 AM, billsfan11 said:

Fair enough sir.

 

The way I see it: If a QB, whether he is in his 1st, 3rd, or even 5th year can't handle adversity, and if he's not mentally tough to get over that adversity, then he isn't cut out for the NFL.

 

I am not a believer in QBs getting ruined. Like would David Carr or Alex Smith be All Pros if they sat for a couple years behind Brett Favre? The guy either has what it takes and is mentally tough, or he isn't. 

 

Just the way I see it.

 

All good though! Some people would agree with me, and some would agree with you.

 

 

 

 

It isn't about mental toughness. Or more specifically, that's one component but quite a small part.

 

And again, the NFL pretty much accepts that guys get ruined. Josh Allen himself has been quoted on this. It's not nearly as clear exactly what ruins guys, but it's pretty much accepted at this point that it happens. And it ain't toughness that's the big problem.

 

It's about how difficult it is to very quickly master an immensely complex system. Which is why some guys are considered NFL-ready and others are considered projects. The project guys aren't less tough. They know less. They have a great deal more to learn. They often have mechanical changes which need to be made, and mechanical changes aren't made as easily when you're on the field trying to survive. Guys in that situation who reach the limit of what they know and get in trouble have an overwhelming likelihood to revert to what worked for them in the past in complicated situations of jeopardy. So if their mechanics were cleared up in college they're reverting to good habits. But if the mechanics have bad problems they're reverting to bad mechanics and bad habits. It's got nothing to do with toughness. It's far more about how humans learn and how they cope with adversity.

 

The NFL is a spectacularly complex series of systems. Aaron Rodgers, as pointed out above, was bad for his first three years and then the light came on in his fourth training camp. That wasn't because he'd gotten tougher. It was because McCarthy had made major mechanical changes to his motion, because he's spent years in film rooms figuring out how NFL defences worked and how to counter their various strategies and had had time to work out not just the major outlines of what he had to do but to move on to the subtleties. And that's not even mentioning what McGinn talked about as far as he'd had crappy relations with other players but watching Favre handle the huddle taught him how improve himself.

 

Brady was the fourth stringer for a lot of his first season. But by the beginning of the next season he was 2nd. Again, that wasn't because he'd gotten tougher. He had been able to understand the game better. He had a much better framework as far as understanding defences, offences and the rest of it.

 

Handling adversity isn't the problem. Not having the tools to handle the complexity, that's where problems tend to develop. Some of that can't be developed, but plenty of it can.

 

There's a reason that airlines have pilots spend thousands of hours of flight time, hundreds and hundreds of hours on simulators and as co-pilots before they get to pilot the plane. And flying an airline is far far less exacting and complicated than being an NFL QB. Some guys are ready to be NFL QBs, and others aren't. And some can be developed, ala Brady, Rodgers, Mahomet and Brees, though some will never have what it takes. But getting the correct scaffolding is huge. There's a lot of variety in how much people can learn, how well they learn and how each person learns. But even more there are things people have in common, limitations on learning, ways people learn better. And doing something immensely complex when you're not ready doesn't help you learn it.

 

See you on the boards.

Edited November 25, 2018 by Thurman#1