Prisco: Bills to go 3-13 (start 0-8)

[billsfan89]

I could see a bad start but not 0-8, the start of the schedule is brutal. I think the Bills could legit go 2-6 to start the season and then finish the back end 4-4 for a 6-10 record. I honestly think that if the Bills go 3-13 and get a top pick that might actually be to their long-term benefit (If there is a top QB prospect that nets the Bills a haul of picks from a trade down.)

 

Looking at the schedule if the Bills want a crack at the playoffs they need to start 2-0. The Ravens game is a defensive struggle (most likely) that will be decided by turnovers and plays late in the game. If you win that game you have to hope the Chargers start the season slow in week 2 and the Bills scratch out that game. Then at 2-0 you can survive a 1-3 against the Titans, Texans, Vikings and Packers and a 2-2 puts you in a good spot. 

 

The only way I see the season shaking out for a crack at the playoffs is in this capacity. 

 

Ravens- W

Chargers- W

Vikings- L

Packers- L

Titans- L

Texans- W

Colts- W

Pats*- L

Bears- W

Jets- W

Jags- L

Dolphins- W

Jets- W

Lions- W

Pats*- L

Dolphins- W

 

That takes you to 10 wins which should sneak a wildcard birth. But I don't honestly see it panning out that way. I see a 1-1 Start at best, I see a split with the Jets and Fins and I see a split between the Lion and Bears. Which takes you down to 6 wins, maybe 7 in the likelihood that the Bills win a game they aren't "supposed" to which happens almost every year. 

Edited July 24, 2018 by billsfan89

[beerme1]

8 hours ago, Logic said:

It's funny.

When Prisco was praising Josh Allen and the Bills for picking him, everyone said he was a smart guy.

Now that he's back to his usual "shitting all over the Bills" act, he's a clueless !@#$.

So...which is it?

 

 

Well I'm a Josh Allen fan and think he is going to be the man.

 

F Prisco anyway.

 

In answer to the "So...which is it?" question, I don't remember  

[GunnerBill]

13 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

Well I decided to check Mr. Prisco's predictions since 2012. I initially said he never gives the Bills more than 4 wins. That was incorrect. However his predictions are often 3 wins too low. So if he says we are 3-13, place a bet we finish 6-10.

 

 

If I had a gun at my head and HAD to stake my future on a record for the Bills this year then I think 6-10 is where I'd end up. I can see a route to 8-8 but it means really getting a roll second half of the season.  

[Bill from NYC]

15 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

Well I decided to check Mr. Prisco's predictions since 2012. I initially said he never gives the Bills more than 4 wins. That was incorrect. However his predictions are often 3 wins too low. So if he says we are 3-13, place a bet we finish 6-10.

 

2012 - Prisco pick: 7-9     Actual record 6-10

2013 - Prisco pick: 3-13     Actual record 6-10

2014 - Prisco pick: 6-10     Actual record 9-7

2015 - Prisco pick: 5-11     Actual record 8-8

2016 - Prisco pick: 7-9     Actual record 7-9

2017 - Prisco pick: 6-10     Actual record 9-7 + wild card playoff berth

 

 

Prisco is just another idiot who thinks the Bills aren't great. Right?

[PromoTheRobot]

22 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

Prisco is just another idiot who thinks the Bills aren't great. Right?

 

Bill, I get that it makes you sad when I don't worship writers who are negative about the Bills. But I'm quoting hard numbers here, showing Prisco consistently undervalues the Bills. What exactly do you take exception with?

[PaattMaann]

21 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

We had a super hard schedule last year too , according to everybody. Played both SB teams last year from the year before (@ATL,,@NE, VS NE) ..

 

THIS TIMES A MILLION!!!

 

"hard schedule" is right up there with "high motor" as far as useless, stupid football quotes. We have NO CLUE how hard the schedule is going to be, we have no clue how good each team is going to be, especially at the point we play them. Maybe they are down to their third string QB, maybe they have an off day, maybe their best offensive weapon has a case of explosive diarrhea...there is a reason they actually play the games. 

 

Nice post.  

[Dr. K]

22 hours ago, HansLanda said:

We all know what to think about predictions in July, but of slight interest is we have both of his Super Bowl teams on the schedule...on top of the Pats twice. 

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2018-nfl-predictions-prisco-picks-every-game-for-every-team-plus-super-bowl-champion/

It's not a ridiculous prediction. Of course a lot of things are going to happen before then. 

[Captain Murica]

It’s 1 win better than the around the NFL podcast stating the bills will go 2-14. But, in the same breathe saying the Jets and Dolphins have more upside...

[teef]

10 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

 

THIS TIMES A MILLION!!!

 

"hard schedule" is right up there with "high motor" as far as useless, stupid football quotes. We have NO CLUE how hard the schedule is going to be, we have no clue how good each team is going to be, especially at the point we play them. Maybe they are down to their third string QB, maybe they have an off day, maybe their best offensive weapon has a case of explosive diarrhea...there is a reason they actually play the games. 

 

Nice post.  

completely agree.  i'm someone who gets bent out of shape when someone uses a schedule as to why a season record will be poor.  i get how it can be factored in, but there's so much variability in the nfl from year to year that it's just not worth it.  yet, here we are.

[PaattMaann]

Just now, teef said:

completely agree.  i'm someone who gets bent out of shape when someone uses a schedule as to why a season record will be poor.  i get how it can be factored in, but there's so much variability in the nfl from year to year that it's just not worth it.  yet, here we are.

 

perfectly acceptable to predict overall records based on talent/scheme/stability/players added/players lost....and that is kind of fun. But to factor in schedule really at all is stupid. The NFL is truly week to week. 

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Captain Murica said:

It’s 1 win better than the around the NFL podcast stating the bills will go 2-14. But, in the same breathe saying the Jets and Dolphins have more upside...

 

The Jets are getting quite a lot of love in these pre-season predictions. I do expect them to take a slight step forward from 2017, and they do on paper have a much nicer opening schedule than the Bills but it gets tougher as they go and I just don't think they have really upskilled themselves enough to be getting the love they are. The secondary could be decent and I think their defensive front still has talent (even if it is not as fearsome as it was 2 or 3 years ago).  Equally I probably prefer their bridge QB options to ours.... if neither rookie starts.  But their linebacking unit stinks, their o-line is a bigger mess than ours (only the left tackle is a good quality NFL starter and he has had his injury issues), they also lack established options at WR (though I think Robby Anderson is a stud - wish we had drafted him) and their running back and tight end situations are only good if you like collecting backup level talents. 

 

I'm just not sure I see them overtaking Buffalo this year.  Could I see them ending with a similar record to us in that 6-8 win territory? Yes, sure. But I'm not sure they have "more upside" unless you simply think it comes down to the likelihood that Darnold or Allen starts and stars this season.  

 

As for the Dolphins? I think they are going to be really bad and Gase won't make the season.  

[Dr. K]

45 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The Jets are getting quite a lot of love in these pre-season predictions. I do expect them to take a slight step forward from 2017, and they do on paper have a much nicer opening schedule than the Bills but it gets tougher as they go and I just don't think they have really upskilled themselves enough to be getting the love they are. The secondary could be decent and I think their defensive front still has talent (even if it is not as fearsome as it was 2 or 3 years ago).  Equally I probably prefer their bridge QB options to ours.... if neither rookie starts.  But their linebacking unit stinks, their o-line is a bigger mess than ours (only the left tackle is a good quality NFL starter and he has had his injury issues), they also lack established options at WR (though I think Robby Anderson is a stud - wish we had drafted him) and their running back and tight end situations are only good if you like collecting backup level talents. 

 

I'm just not sure I see them overtaking Buffalo this year.  Could I see them ending with a similar record to us in that 6-8 win territory? Yes, sure. But I'm not sure they have "more upside" unless you simply think it comes down to the likelihood that Darnold or Allen starts and stars this season.  

 

As for the Dolphins? I think they are going to be really bad and Gase won't make the season.  

Not in Prisco's predictions. He picks the Jets to win only two  games, finishing behind the Bills with the worst record in the league. 

Edited July 24, 2018 by Dr. K

[Cmdjr85]

I didnt even need to go thru it to know the jaguars will be best team in afc and going to SB. Prisco has a hard on for jags. They won be better than 10-6

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Dr. K said:

Not in Prisco's predictions. He picks the Jets to win only two  games, finishing behind the Bills with the worst record in the league. 

 

Ha.  I think that is closer than the people picking them as a clear 2nd in the AFCE.  

[Bill from NYC]

3 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

Bill, I get that it makes you sad when I don't worship writers who are negative about the Bills. But I'm quoting hard numbers here, showing Prisco consistently undervalues the Bills. What exactly do you take exception with?

Well, by your numbers Prisco had us 34-62 and the actual records were 46-51. So I have 2 questions:

 

1) How close do you think your predictions would have been?

 

2) Was there any specific reason that you chose to start at 2012?

[C.Biscuit97]

Prisco sucks.

[PromoTheRobot]

Just now, Bill from NYC said:

Well, by your numbers Prisco had us 34-62 and the actual records were 46-51. So I have 2 questions:

 

1) How close do you think your predictions would have been?

 

2) Was there any specific reason that you chose to start at 2012?

 

1) My point was he was 3 wins too low 4 out of 6 years. That's not exactly Nostradamus-level work. As for your math, 13 wins difference is not close. Sorry.

 

2) I stopped at 2012 because, based on my web searching, Prisco started doing full season predictions in 2012. Sorry, again. No nefarious data spinning here. If Prisco did them earlier, I'd be happy to crunch those numbers.  But look at the bright side. He was exact or close twice out of 6.

 

 

[Dr. K]

2 hours ago, Cmdjr85 said:

I didnt even need to go thru it to know the jaguars will be best team in afc and going to SB. Prisco has a hard on for jags. They won be better than 10-6

If he's so prejudiced toward the Jags, why did he pick them to have a losing season last  year?

 

There's a lot of illogical BS posted on this board. 

Edited July 24, 2018 by Dr. K

[Bill from NYC]

6 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

1) My point was he was 3 wins too low 4 out of 6 years. That's not exactly Nostradamus-level work. As for your math, 13 wins difference is not close. Sorry.

 

2) I stopped at 2012 because, based on my web searching, Prisco started doing full season predictions in 2012. Sorry, again. No nefarious data spinning here. If Prisco did them earlier, I'd be happy to crunch those numbers.  But look at the bright side. He was exact or close twice out of 6.

 

 

Many writers and sportscasters (imo) are going to go low on predictions because there is a basis for doing so. Two decades of losing does not breed optimism.

 

I also think that people like us follow the Bills 10x more than most writers. Like you, I have been a fan for decades and probably would have a more accurate prediction than most of the media, but; I do not have high expectations for this season.

 

How about you? Are you thinking playoffs? It sure would be great!

 

[PromoTheRobot]

51 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

Many writers and sportscasters (imo) are going to go low on predictions because there is a basis for doing so. Two decades of losing does not breed optimism.

 

I also think that people like us follow the Bills 10x more than most writers. Like you, I have been a fan for decades and probably would have a more accurate prediction than most of the media, but; I do not have high expectations for this season.

 

How about you? Are you thinking playoffs? It sure would be great!

 

 

I'm not thinking playoffs but 3-13 is way too pessimistic. 7-9 is doable. But I also don't want to sell McDermott short. He got the most out of a pretty motley crew last year. 

 

But one thing to keep in mind. Nobody ever heard of tomorrows superstar. We have a lot of unknowns on this team. But it's foolish to think they will all stink. If Beane and his crew are worth their paychecks, there are some gems among the rocks.