A Bone-Chilling Draft Review

[Thurman#1]

"There is something to work with. He isn't Christian Hackenberg."

 

I don't see anything bone-chilling in this whole thing.

 

"When you compare him with the other three or four highest rated QBs in the class he's just behind them in key important areas." Yup, that's why he needs development. That's why he should sit for a while. It's worth noting.

 

Could Beane have made a mistake and picked a bust? Yeah. Could Allen instead be a guy who with changes to his mechanics and time to pick up the pro game without the pressure of starting turn out to be terrific? Yeah, also possible. That's been the word on him since the beginning. He needs development.

 

I do disagree with one thing they're saying, that guys like Rodgers and Brady can make lousy supporting casts look good. Not so much. Every QB needs a good OL. Without one even the Bradys and Rodgerses are going to look bad. Yeah, they can make lower-level receiving corps look good. But Allen, as has been documented, was under consistent pressure and running for his life. Even the best QBs have problems with that kind of situation. It's a universal about the position.

 

 

They were right about Edmunds' run fits, he had a lot of problems in that area, but seems to be football smart and willing and capable of improving. He got better.

 

I thought they were interesting about Harrison Phillips not being Kyle Williams II. I'd bought into that, but they make an excellent point, the styles are quite different.

Edited May 29, 2018 by Thurman#1

[BarleyNY]

Funny thing is that I saw the Bills draft the same way as PFF did.  They made a lot of high risk/high reward picks on talented players who haven’t developed yet (as compared to other college prospects).  They even talked about the tremendous upside potential of the players we picked and, how if they all hit, what an incredible draft it would be.  I’d have taken different players - as the PFF guys would have - but we both can see the potential of the players taken by the Bills.  

[TigerJ]

8 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

PFF is good for advanced metrics and stats but it’s grades are useless because you can’t accurately grade a player if you don’t know the play call,line call, route combinations, and individual jobs on the play

 

too many variables 

I agree.  Buffalo drafted Josh Allen on the basis of his physical attributes, his intelligence, his attitude, and what he has done given his relatively weak background in terms of high school and college experience.  They took a chance on him, knowing he's furthest from being a finished product compaired with all his first round QB peers from the recent draft.  We all know he could bust.  I think McBeane knows he could bust, but the reason they took a chance was because his physical attibutes are off the charts, and because his attitude and intelligence are outstanding.  They are willing to gamble that success will come as he moves up the learning curve.  I'm OK with their gamble. 

[John from Riverside]

2 minutes ago, TigerJ said:

I agree.  Buffalo drafted Josh Allen on the basis of his physical attributes, his intelligence, his attitude, and what he has done given his relatively weak background in terms of high school and college experience.  They took a chance on him, knowing he's furthest from being a finished product compaired with all his first round QB peers from the recent draft.  We all know he could bust.  I think McBeane knows he could bust, but the reason they took a chance was because his physical attibutes are off the charts, and because his attitude and intelligence are outstanding.  They are willing to gamble that success will come as he moves up the learning curve.  I'm OK with their gamble. 

If he never had a good college season I would be more worried

 

2016 was respectable for him

[Buffalo716]

1 minute ago, TigerJ said:

I agree.  Buffalo drafted Josh Allen on the basis of his physical attributes, his intelligence, his attitude, and what he has done given his relatively weak background in terms of high school and college experience.  They took a chance on him, knowing he's furthest from being a finished product compaired with all his first round QB peers from the recent draft.  We all know he could bust.  I think McBeane knows he could bust, but the reason they took a chance was because his physical attibutes are off the charts, and because his attitude and intelligence are outstanding.  They are willing to gamble that success will come as he moves up the learning curve.  I'm OK with their gamble. 

 

I wouldn’t even necessarily say that. Being in his pro style offense and working under center over 40% of the time, making line calls and audibles I don’t think he’s as far off as some think... his talent level at Wyoming was horrible 

 

heck we have Sam Darnold fumbling snaps left and right under center lol

 

Allen is not polished but he is definitely further ahead than a lot think 

[TigerJ]

You could well be right, Buffalo, analytics or not.

[Buffalo716]

4 minutes ago, TigerJ said:

You could well be right, Buffalo, analytics or not.

 

Statistically, Allen is not great and people who don’t like him can go to stats and metrics all they want 

 

but when you take the whole situation and then look at The body of his work you see why he is a High first rounder. His athleticism for his size is unreal, coupled with his big arm and smooth release and coaches definitely would like to work with him 

[Paulus]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Yep

 

There are some places where their stats are meaningful, but when they try to put individual grades on positions which are strongly interdependent - such as OL or DL - they become quite tenuous. 

And at other positions, such as QB, I think the way they weight different factors (such as lack of interceptions) is a bit out of keeping with the QB's real impact on the game - for example, while I agree with the principle that turnover differential is a huge correlation to wins, so are successful 4Q drives and 2 minute drills. 

 

But could just be me

 

The video was a bit off-putting when they said that those who liked Allen didn't watch any game film like THEY (and those who didn't like him) had. The guys in the video are really trying to up-sell the site to the point of ridiculousness.  

 

PFF and metrics in general are tools, not a true measure of a player/athlete. Especially, a player/athlete involved in a team sport. One game does not a player make, but one game can certainly skew a metric.

[Thurman#1]

They're also saying that guys like Allen can have terrific NFL careers if they follow a path like Newton (the guy who our head coach and GM have history with) and Wentz have.

 

They're saying he can be successful without improving his accuracy. And yet he apparently has improved his accuracy through mechanical improvements with Jordan Palmer. It's a question whether he'll maintain that improvement, but if he does then he should be a better guy than their analysis says he is.

[Your Brown Eye]

Bone chilling is the little girl I bought girl scout cookies from yesterday died 3 years ago.

 

Two schmucks yapping about draft picks is not bone chilling.

[Protocal69]

Here is my take on advanced analytics. They only tell what happened statically in the past not necessary what will happen in the future. For somethings it can predict what will happen with good accuracy. For example if team A  is dead last vs the run and is facing the number one rushing offense in team B guess what? Its a good chance that team B will have a great day rushing the ball, but when to analyzing a QB like Josh Allen what analytics does not do is tell you WHY is his accuracy not up to par. 

 

The BILLS felt like ALLEN issues are footwork related which is correctable and thats why they picked him. These PFF guys just look at the numbers to form their opinion and even  if they do look at the tape, they are letting the numbers form a bias in what they are looking at. In other words they are just looking the film to just confirm the numbers but not explain the numbers and to see if the numbers tell the whole story.

Edited May 29, 2018 by Protocal69

[Thurman#1]

10 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

 

PFF is good for advanced metrics and stats but it’s grades are useless because you can’t accurately grade a player if you don’t know the play call,line call, route combinations, and individual jobs on the play

 

too many variables 

 

 

You're right. That's why nobody knows which players in the NFL are good. Nobody knows the play calls, line calls, route combinations and individual jobs on plays, so nobody knows which players are any good.

 

PFF is very good. They aren't perfect, of course ... nobody is. And they're better at rating certain positions than others. But they're painstaking, careful and professional. 

 

Many NFL teams buy PFF data to use. They don't do that because PFF suck.

 

But predicting how guys will transition between college and the pros is projection, not simply observing and understanding. Even the NFL teams themselves aren't all that good at it, though they're better than anyone else.

Edited May 29, 2018 by Thurman#1

[John from Riverside]

8 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You're right. That's why nobody knows which players in the NFL are good. Nobody knows the play calls, line calls, route combinations and individual jobs on plays, so nobody knows which players are any good.

 

PFF is very good. They aren't perfect, of course ... nobody is. And they're better at rating certain positions than others. But they're painstaking, careful and professional. 

 

Many NFL teams buy PFF data to use. They don't do that because PFF suck.

 

But predicting how guys will transition between college and the pros is projection, not simply observing and understanding. Even the NFL teams themselves aren't all that good at it, though they're better than anyone else.

My question in all this is accountability

 

I kept hearing Hackenberg being brought up like he was some great revelation of these guys and somehow proves they are legit and correct.

 

Do they ever talk about there misses (of which there have been several)

 

As you listen to the whole thing it seems to me that they biult themselves an out just in case Allen hits....I found that amuzing.   They will be front and center talking about how they were the voice of reason if Allen busts but if he hits we wont hear another word about Allen from them.

 

Meanwhile.....the guys that will get fired if Allen busts and are basing their livelyhood on the pick....well....

[Hapless Bills Fan]

18 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

You're right. That's why nobody knows which players in the NFL are good. Nobody knows the play calls, line calls, route combinations and individual jobs on plays, so nobody knows which players are any good.

 

PFF is very good. They aren't perfect, of course ... nobody is. And they're better at rating certain positions than others. But they're painstaking, careful and professional. 

 

Many NFL teams buy PFF data to use. They don't do that because PFF suck.

 

But predicting how guys will transition between college and the pros is projection, not simply observing and understanding. Even the NFL teams themselves aren't all that good at it, though they're better than anyone else.

 

 

Is this really true?  Wondering which teams, and how it is known.

[Buffalo716]

28 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You're right. That's why nobody knows which players in the NFL are good. Nobody knows the play calls, line calls, route combinations and individual jobs on plays, so nobody knows which players are any good.

 

PFF is very good. They aren't perfect, of course ... nobody is. And they're better at rating certain positions than others. But they're painstaking, careful and professional. 

 

Many NFL teams buy PFF data to use. They don't do that because PFF suck.

 

But predicting how guys will transition between college and the pros is projection, not simply observing and understanding. Even the NFL teams themselves aren't all that good at it, though they're better than anyone else.

 

They are good at collecting data. It can be worth 19 dollars a month to a team. That’s nothing 

 

You don’t need a grade on a player to see if he is good. If you go to games and watch games you can form your own opinions on players. Scouts form their own opinions with their eyes not PFF data

 

yes it’s all about projection

 

though they are good at collecting data. They aren’t perfect talent evaluators by any means

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

Is this really true?  Wondering which teams, and how it is known.

 

I’ve heard some teams may have a subscription. But it’s like 20 bucks a month so that’s nothing for an nfl team 

 

they are using it for the metrics and stats they track not player grades 

Edited May 29, 2018 by Buffalo716

[Warcodered]

7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

Is this really true?  Wondering which teams, and how it is known.

The Browns hired Jonah Hill's character from Moneyball.

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

They are good at collecting data. It can be worth 19 dollars a month to a team. That’s nothing 

 

You don’t need a grade on a player to see if he is good. If you go to games and watch games you can form your own opinions on players. Scouts form their own opinions with their eyes not PFF data

 

though they are good at collecting data. They aren’t perfect talent evaluators by any means

 

 

$19 a month is for people like us. The teams pay a lot more and get a lot more data.

 

Right, PFF aren't perfect talent evaluators. But probably a lot better than all the folks who don't do it for a living and talk about how people pass or don't pass the eye test for them.

 

 

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

Is this really true?  Wondering which teams, and how it is known.

 

 

https://www.si.com/2015/01/25/pro-football-focus-nfl-neil-hornsby-cris-collinsworth-analytics

 

"To be fair, PFF has come a long way since 2013, so much so that it’s now widely used by NFL teams and players. It’s good to see the Bengals are among them. PFF, while not perfect, is easily the best source of advanced analytics that accurately measures a player’s abilities in the NFL. In a 2015 article, Collinsworth told The MMQB 13 NFL teams were using PFF’s team-specific subscription service and in 2016 he said they were up to 24 teams. So, the Bengals are not alone in using PFF for data mining."

 

https://www.cincyjungle.com/2017/6/30/15895074/study-details-how-bengals-advanced-analytics

 

Two of dozens of articles I've seen about it.

 

3 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

My question in all this is accountability

 

I kept hearing Hackenberg being brought up like he was some great revelation of these guys and somehow proves they are legit and correct.

 

Do they ever talk about there misses (of which there have been several)

 

As you listen to the whole thing it seems to me that they biult themselves an out just in case Allen hits....I found that amuzing.   They will be front and center talking about how they were the voice of reason if Allen busts but if he hits we wont hear another word about Allen from them.

 

Meanwhile.....the guys that will get fired if Allen busts and are basing their livelyhood on the pick....well....

 

 

PFF doesn't pretend to be perfect. Nobody would. They're proud of their methodology, they think people can get a ton of value out of it, and the fact that teams buy their stuff says they're right. But they're upfront about not the fact that they aren't perfect at knowing what will happen.

 

I don't know, it doesn't seem to me they're "building themselves an out." Sounded to me like they weren't sure what was going to happen, though their opinion was not good. Seemed to me they brought up Hackenberg because they are convinced he's never going to make it, but they don't think Allen is as hopeless as they think Hackenberg is. I didn't re-listen or anything but that's what I got from it.

Edited May 29, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Buffalo716]

7 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

$19 a month is for people like us. The teams pay a lot more and get a lot more data.

 

Right, PFF aren't perfect talent evaluators. But probably a lot better than all the folks who don't do it for a living and talk about how people pass or don't pass the eye test for them.

 

 

 

 

https://www.si.com/2015/01/25/pro-football-focus-nfl-neil-hornsby-cris-collinsworth-analytics

 

"To be fair, PFF has come a long way since 2013, so much so that it’s now widely used by NFL teams and players. It’s good to see the Bengals are among them. PFF, while not perfect, is easily the best source of advanced analytics that accurately measures a player’s abilities in the NFL. In a 2015 article, Collinsworth told The MMQB 13 NFL teams were using PFF’s team-specific subscription service and in 2016 he said they were up to 24 teams. So, the Bengals are not alone in using PFF for data mining."

 

https://www.cincyjungle.com/2017/6/30/15895074/study-details-how-bengals-advanced-analytics

 

Two of dozens of articles I've seen about it.

 

They definitely have been getting Better but they are hit and miss with some players and their ratings

 

though I guess we are all wrong sometimes. Their purpose is great for hardcore fans. It’s over analyzed stats and metrics. And amateur draft gurus can use it to Track prospects 

 

but ive never met a scout that started the conversation with , so I was checking PFF last night ...

 

but it I hear your argument. They are a sound younger company driven in a technology world

Edited May 29, 2018 by Buffalo716

[Utah John]

At this point, a good draft is one that makes sense.  The Bills selected players to fill needs.  They failed to find a stud WR, someone who can beat the coverage and catch an Allen pass 65 yards downfield.  Other than that, the draft made sense.

 

Contrast this year's picks with, oh, how about drafting CJ Spiller when we already had Fred Jackson.  Or, of course, giving up so much to draft Sammy Watkins when we didn't have a QB to throw it to him.  I'm not saying the results are judged on the performance of the players, because all teams pick guys that don't work out for whatever reason.  I'm saying those picks simply didn't make sense from a structural, strategic perspective.  This year's picks do make sense.

[billsintaiwan]

14 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

PFF is good for advanced metrics and stats but it’s grades are useless because you can’t accurately grade a player if you don’t know the play call,line call, route combinations, and individual jobs on the play

 

too many variables 

it really is a poor man's fangraphs. baseball much easier to analyze due to the lack of the variables you mentioned.