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Peter Schrager: somehow, some way, Sam Darnold is a Buffalo Bill


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6 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

How much better? Extra 1st and 2nd round picks better? Going to pick 2 is a lot more expensive than pick 5

I feel that if you truly think that the qb is a likely franchise qb - a dozen+-year starter - the picks you give up to get him aren't all that important. I'm thinking 4-5 years down the road at this point, not about 2019. I believe Darnold is that guy.

3 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

I put Darnold just above Allen.  If he's there at 12, maybe the Bills take him, but if Roquan Smith was still there, I'd take Smith over him, and maybe use #22 on Jackson.  If Jackson's gone, I'd consider Rudolph in the 2nd.   

 

 

These are all red flags for me.  I'd only trade up to take Mayfield or maybe Rosen (primarily because of his concussion history).

 

 

Some of the most notable QB busts in recent years had no problem "being able to suit up on Sundays", but they sure had problems producing completions and TDs for their teams (not always so much for their opponents).   I'm thinking of guys like Mark Sanchez, Christian Ponder, Blaine Gabbert,  and even EJ Manuel.

 

 

The link among the recent USC QB's is the USC hype machine.  Darnold has been hyped since 2016 when his fans tried to paint him as the next Andrew Luck despite his shortcomings which include being turn over prone and having poor mechanics, which might be tolerable faults in a kid taken after the first round but not in a supposed "blue chip" first rounder.  Darnold hasn't been able to fix either of those faults since, so why would he be able to fix them in the pros?

 

FTR, since 2003, USC has produced 3 QBs who have been drafted in the first round: Carson Palmer #1 in 2003, Matt Leinart at #10 in 2006, and Mark Sanchez at #5 in 2009.  Prior to 2003, USC last produced a first round QB in 1991 when Todd Marinovich went #24th.  While Palmer has been successful, he probably hasn't had quite the kind of career that he was expected to have as the #1 pick.  Leinart and Sanchez were definitely overhyped busts.  

I suggest you list all of the great UCLA qbs not named Troy Aikman. And all of the great Oklahoma QBs. I did research on this, and the only two schools that stand out since the 1970 merger are Stanford and to a lesser extent Cal. 

Edited by dave mcbride
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1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

I feel that if you truly think that the qb is a likely franchise qb - a dozen+-year starter - the picks you give up to get him aren't all that important. I'm thinking 4-5 years down the road at this point, not about 2019. I believe Darnold is that guy.

 

Here's my back of the envelope formula - a HOF caliber QB is realistically worth a 1st round pick for each year he plays.  Then you discount that cost with the probability that the draft pick will achieve that status.  In that sense, you can easily argue that Darnold could be worth 3 or 4 first rounders

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I can't even let myself contemplate this possibility. It is too exciting.

 

I understand that Darnold is a little sloppy and not as developed in some areas as some of the other guys.

 

But he is the one guy who screams franchise to me. I actually think he is the safest pick, not just the one with the highest ceiling. When I watch him play, I just have confidence in him. He sees things that other QBs tend not to - little windows and angles. He finds a way to make plays at the right moments. He's got that confidence and that kind of idiot savant geometry that all the best QBs have. And pressure doesn't seem to bother him - on or off the field. Can't believe he is so young.

 

If the Bills somehow manage to get him, it will be the happiest I've been as a Bills fan since the USFL closed up shop and Jim Kelly came to town. Seems too good to be true, though. I don't see how the Browns/Giants/Jets let this guy get past them (or trade down instead of taking him). Guess we'll see.

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2 minutes ago, PastorMKC said:

Hue Jackson is NOT picking this QB that's why It's b/t Darnold/ Allen Dorsey Likes both and he is Picking ...

 

 

I imagine that Hue Jackson had his fill watching DeShone Kizer regularly throw completions to the other team last season.  Since I like the Brownies, I hope they leave Darnold and Allen to the Jests and take Rosen (and his concussions) while leaving Mayfield to the Bills.

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1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

In the last week or so Darnold has become my #1 QB. I like Rosen and Mayfield a lot too but not as much as him. Darnold you are kind of drafting on potential. He does need to cut down on his turnovers but I think with experience he will. His throwing motion doesn't bother me at all. He is the best in this class at unloading the ball quickly when there's pressure in his face. I've used a comparison to Philip Rivers before, he has a similarly weird throwing motion but it works. Rosen is a better QB right now but I see Darnold ahead of him in a few years. He has all the character traits you look for in a QB too.

I would love to have Darnold. He would be my first preference. But the issue comes down to what would you give up to get him in comparison to Rosen or Mayfield? Although the Bills fortuitously made the playoffs last year in reality they are a rebuilding team that is at least another two or maybe three years away from being a serious team. Keeping as many valuable picks as possible is a necessity in accelerating the rebuilding process. If the Bills could get Rosen at the six spot and maybe just lose their first round picks then those picks that we have left will address other major needs. 

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4 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

I imagine that Hue Jackson had his fill watching DeShone Kizer regularly throw completions to the other team last season.  Since I like the Brownies, I hope they leave Darnold and Allen to the Jests and take Rosen (and his concussions) while leaving Mayfield to the Bills.

I would not mind Darnold/Allen/Rosen I just don't want Mayfield ...

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5 minutes ago, PIZ said:

Here's another guy thinking Darnold to Bills.

 

Chad Reuter mock

Wow. Not that I want the Jets or Phins to be good. But it would be pretty cool seeing Mayfield, Darnold, and Rosen fighting it out in the AFC East for the next ten years, while the Pats fade into oblivion.

 

I know it's unlikely that all three will pan out anyway. But it would give us the most interesting division for a little while at least.

Edited by Last Guy on the Bench
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Just now, Last Guy on the Bench said:

Wow. Not that I want the Jets of Phins to be good. But it would be pretty cool seeing Mayfield, Darnold, and Rosen fighting it out in the AFC East for the next ten years, while the Pats fade into oblivion.

 

I know it's unlikely that all three will pan out anyway. But it would give us the most interesting division for a little while at least.

I think all three teams see the chance to possibly end the trend of Pats dominance.

 

The AFC as a whole really could be there for the taking if some of us get our acts together and invest in quality QB play.

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1 minute ago, Last Guy on the Bench said:

Wow. Not that I want the Jets of Phins to be good. But it would be pretty cool seeing Mayfield, Darnold, and Rosen fighting it out in the AFC East for the next ten years, while the Pats fade into oblivion.

 

I know it's unlikely that all three will pan out anyway. But it would give us the most interesting division for a little while at least.

With our luck, all three will suck and the Kyle Lauletta led Pats* will dominate the division for the next decade.

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