Domdab99 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 (edited) Riley Macatee at The ringer has written an interesting article pulling various data points together to show that Josh Allen will likely be a bust. Here is the article. Allen is the embodiment of an old-fashioned, “stats are for losers” approach to evaluating prospects. While draftniks like Mike Mayock and Mel Kiper Jr. rave about Allen’s prototypical size, arm strength, and raw potential, Allen’s production in college gives no indication that he will be a franchise quarterback in the pros. As far as statistical models go, there isn’t a single one that projects Allen as even a first-round pick, much less the top overall player in the draft. And it’s not just his much-maligned completion percentage—let’s take a look under the hood. One interesting chart he uses: Comparing 2018 QB Prospects Player QBASE DYAR Projection Rosen-Olbrecht PFF "NFL Throws" Bill Connelly Success Rate IQR Final-Year QBR Passing S&P+ Baker Mayfield 1st 3rd 2nd 1st 1st 1st 1st Sam Darnold 4th 1st 1st 2nd 6th 4th 2nd Josh Rosen 3rd 2nd 4th 6th 5th 5th 5th Mason Rudolph 5th 6th 3rd 3rd 2nd 3rd 4th Lamar Jackson 2nd 5th 6th 5th 4th 2nd 3rd Luke Falk 6th 7th N/A 4th 3rd 6th 6th Josh Allen 7th 4th 5th 7th 7th 7th 7th I really don't want the Bills drafting Josh Allen. He's most likely going to be a huge bust. Let's hope the Browns actually do draft him. Edited April 13, 2018 by Domdab99 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Could you make your font bigger? I can barely read this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Yeah...he's not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadLandsMeanie Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Maybe I am missing it, but what are the 1st, 2nd, 3rd etc projections, projecting? Round? Rank among other qb's? What does it mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said: Maybe I am missing it, but what are the 1st, 2nd, 3rd etc projections, projecting? Round? Rank among other qb's? What does it mean? Appears to be rank, not round. Unless they all conveniently have 1 guy per round 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr_Robotulism Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 J.P. Losman 2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Domdab99 Posted April 13, 2018 Author Share Posted April 13, 2018 17 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said: Maybe I am missing it, but what are the 1st, 2nd, 3rd etc projections, projecting? Round? Rank among other qb's? What does it mean? read the article Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadLandsMeanie Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 11 minutes ago, Domdab99 said: read the article I thought you read it. Don't you remember? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdrought Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 But isn't saying that looking at just intangibles and not at stats is bad evaluation, kind of the same thing as looking at just stats? Isn't the best way to look at the sum of the parts? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metzelaars_lives Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 J**** C***** enough already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, whatdrought said: But isn't saying that looking at just intangibles and not at stats is bad evaluation, kind of the same thing as looking at just stats? Isn't the best way to look at the sum of the parts? Yes, and we know that a big arm and athletic ability mean nothing if you can't throw the ball accurately or have poor decision-making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metzelaars_lives Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, LeGOATski said: Yes, and we know that a big arm and athletic ability mean nothing if you can't throw the ball accurately or have poor decision-making. Yes, that is true. However, you don't know that he can't throw the ball accurately, nor that he has poor decision-making. He was a college QB for two years. In his first year, he took over for a team that went 2-10 the year before, took them to the MWC Championship game and a pretty big bowl game, going 8-5. He was named the 2nd team MWC QB and the MWC player of the year going into this last season. His second year, he lost every skill position player he had- four of whom played in the NFL. Of course his numbers weren't going to be as good. I can't wait for this to be over. When Josh Allen is good, do you guys have to face any sort of music? This is so tiring. Biff from Tonawanda knows more than NFL scouts and executives, I get it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dadonkadonk Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Nobody knows including the GMs, the writer, and the OP. When the greatest QB of all time goes in the sixth round, Blackledge and Eason go before Marino, Leaf and Mirer one pick after Manning and Bledsoe, and guys like Romo and Warner go undrafted; it proves that none of these guys know who will succeed in the NFL. You can not compare Darnold and Allen without comparing the supporting casts. Since 2010 Wyoming has had 10 players drafted none higher than the 4th round. USC has had 99, 21 of which went in the first round. Drafting a QB every year is the surest means to finding a franchise guy. Just keep biting the apple no matter what other needs you have. Can you win without a Brady? Yes. But you need either a generationally great defense or a superior defense and a very very good QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat68 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 So if Allen becomes a franchise Qb and Mayfield does not, does analytics in football die? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Its not a science. You can’t look at stats to measure someone’s heart, drive and future surrounding cast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Call_Of_Ktulu Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 For me their are only 3 QB's Mayfield, Darnold and Rosen. If we don't get one of those guys I really don't see a potential upgrade at QB in this draft over what we currently have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Domdab99 Posted April 13, 2018 Author Share Posted April 13, 2018 (edited) Did you guys even read the article? LOL at all of you making statements before doing that. And to be fair to Allen, while the advanced stats don’t look great, no one can say for sure whether he’ll pan out or be a bust. Stats may not be for losers, but no one would argue that numbers alone make an NFL quarterback. If Allen can piece together his immense talent, he could be the next Brett Favre. If not, he’ll be the next Jake Locker. But in order to draft him no. 1 overall, the Browns would have to ignore every statistical analysis imaginable. As far as analytics go, it’d be the end of the Process in Cleveland. Yes, we all know it's a crap shoot and no one knows for sure. Duh. But all these studies are trying to do one thing: make a coin flip into something less than a coin flip...giving those who do study maybe a 60-40 chance or even better of making the right decision. And guess what? That's the !@#$ing point. But all we get here is all of the above posts calling me out if Allen is actually good, or saying "nobody knows." And if the Bills actually do pick Allen, I'm going to cheer for him and hope he's Brett Favre and not Jake Locker. But I'm not going to bet on it. Edited April 13, 2018 by Domdab99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 42 minutes ago, metzelaars_lives said: Yes, that is true. However, you don't know that he can't throw the ball accurately, nor that he has poor decision-making. He was a college QB for two years. In his first year, he took over for a team that went 2-10 the year before, took them to the MWC Championship game and a pretty big bowl game, going 8-5. He was named the 2nd team MWC QB and the MWC player of the year going into this last season. His second year, he lost every skill position player he had- four of whom played in the NFL. Of course his numbers weren't going to be as good. I can't wait for this to be over. When Josh Allen is good, do you guys have to face any sort of music? This is so tiring. Biff from Tonawanda knows more than NFL scouts and executives, I get it. This isn't tiring at all. I get it, though. Life is hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
transplantbillsfan Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 2 hours ago, metzelaars_lives said: J**** C***** enough already. With what? 2 hours ago, metzelaars_lives said: Yes, that is true. However, you don't know that he can't throw the ball accurately, nor that he has poor decision-making. He was a college QB for two years. In his first year, he took over for a team that went 2-10 the year before, took them to the MWC Championship game and a pretty big bowl game, going 8-5. He was named the 2nd team MWC QB and the MWC player of the year going into this last season. His second year, he lost every skill position player he had- four of whom played in the NFL. Of course his numbers weren't going to be as good. I can't wait for this to be over. When Josh Allen is good, do you guys have to face any sort of music? This is so tiring. Biff from Tonawanda knows more than NFL scouts and executives, I get it. You need to probably wait at least a year and a half until Allen even sees meaningful regular season action, maybe longer. Don't waste your energy on being so frustrated so early... you have a loooooong time to deal with passing talk about how bad he's likely going to be as a pro until you have any regular season NFL play to use to debunk that belief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CEN-CAL17 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 I hope this kid turns out to be amazing. Just to prove to everyone they have no clue what they are talking about. I think he has potential to do so and I’m rooting for him. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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