Hanging on to 2019 1st round pick

[Turk71]

29 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

I’m all for shipping away next years 1st for this Draft and trying to keep our 2-2nds & 2-3rds. We’ll have over $81M in Cap cash next season. More than enough to buy great FA OL. 

Too much was sacrificed for these picks to lump & dump on a ‘prospect’.

Which qb in this draft is not a 'prospect'? Just curious.

35 minutes ago, Derby Dan said:

Finally, we are making sense.   My source tells me it will be done

!@#$, you again with your source. Go away you social disease.

[GunnerBill]

14 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I have a different perspective on a trade scenario. We are the team making the overture for a deal. If the Giants are willing to trade their pick for our two first picks and next year's first without asking for any other of this year's picks I would be willing (enthusiastic) to make the deal. The issue for the Giants isn't who is offering the most because they have the prerogative to stand pat and get an elite player.

 

I certainly agree with this.  I don't think the Giants' decision comes down to take a QB or trade back.  There are lots of alternatives in between, so you are not just bidding against other trade up teams but against the value for the Giants in taking Chubb or Nelson or Bakley as well.  

Edited April 13, 2018 by GunnerBill

[dollars 2 donuts]

Boy, guys, I believe I have stated this before but I would rather give up a little more in 2019 (possibly 2 and a 5?) than giving up that first rounder, which I believe is a likely top ten pick.

[TheBeane]

1 minute ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

Boy, guys, I believe I have stated this before but I would rather give up a little more in 2019 (possibly 2 and a 5?) than giving up that first rounder, which I believe is a likely top ten pick.

 

I'm all for this....  I agree we probably have a high 1st rounder in 2019 (although I was first to say last year after the draft that our 2018 1st rounder was going to be in the top 5 and look how that turned out), so if we give up a 2nd or 3rd next year, we would be in good shape.  It's not quite as much as we started out with, but we still do have a buttload of cap space next year and can fill a lot of gaps with free agents.

[Kirby Jackson]

20 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I have a different perspective on a trade scenario. We are the team making the overture for a deal. If the Giants are willing to trade their pick for our two first picks and next year's first without asking for any other of this year's picks I would be willing (enthusiastic) to make the deal. The issue for the Giants isn't who is offering the most because they have the prerogative to stand pat and get an elite player. My one caveat is that I would make the deal with the Giants only if the qb/s targeted is not likely to be available at our pick or with a lesser move up deal. 

 

This is the year to secure our targeted qb. A better situation is to have multiple targets that would allow us more flexibility (less cost) when dealing. My only uncompromising condition is that we have to come away with a bone fide prospect while we are in a position to do so. 

That’s where we differ. I’d rather have a top 10 pick in 2019 than preserving, 53, 65, 96 and next year’s 2nd (or whatever it will be). I would rather 1 star than those 4 picks. 

 

The ammo isn’t the issue for the Bills, it’s the trade partner. Depending on how the Bills have the QBs ranked the Browns at 4 could be the play. 12, 22 and 56 or something like that? This morning on Good Morning Football they were mocking the Browns 4th pick and the Patriots offered 23, 31 and 43 plus Malcolm Mitchell. I think that 12, 23 and 56 blows that out of the water. Again, this would assume that the Bills have all of he QBs ranked pretty closely. 

[Epstein's Mother]

I'm not a big fan of giving up the 2019 first round pick.  There is some uncertainty surrounding this year's team and you never know what that pick will become.  Look at the Houston Texans.  They were 3-3 after 6 games, thinking playoffs, then Watson gets hurt and they finish the season 1-9.  The pick they traded to move up to get Watson goes from looking like a mid to late rounder to #4.

 

I'm not saying that moving up to pick Watson won't ultimately be a fantastic move for the Texans; I'm just saying a year is a long time in the NFL.

[JohnC]

13 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

That’s where we differ. I’d rather have a top 10 pick in 2019 than preserving, 53, 65, 96 and next year’s 2nd (or whatever it will be). I would rather 1 star than those 4 picks. 

 

The ammo isn’t the issue for the Bills, it’s the trade partner. Depending on how the Bills have the QBs ranked the Browns at 4 could be the play. 12, 22 and 56 or something like that? This morning on Good Morning Football they were mocking the Browns 4th pick and the Patriots offered 23, 31 and 43 plus Malcolm Mitchell. I think that 12, 23 and 56 blows that out of the water. Again, this would assume that the Bills have all of he QBs ranked pretty closely. 

We are not disagreeing at least to a major extent. If the Bills can make a less onerous deal and come away with one of their targeted qb/s then take the option. It would be irrational and irresponsible to pay more than you had to. However, if there is a strong conviction on a particular qb then my position is to go for it. If the Bills rate the qbs closely (as you suggested could be the case) then without question go for the best bargain. 

 

In the grand scheme of things if getting the qb you covet costs you a high pick in next year's draft then (for me) I receptive to that deal. And if you factor in that the Bills will have a significant increase in cap space next the that would be a hedge against losing a high pick if it comes to that. The priority for me is to get the qb secured in this draft. 

[What a Tuel]

6 minutes ago, Epstein's Mother said:

I'm not a big fan of giving up the 2019 first round pick.  There is some uncertainty surrounding this year's team and you never know what that pick will become.  Look at the Houston Texans.  They were 3-3 after 6 games, thinking playoffs, then Watson gets hurt and they finish the season 1-9.  The pick they traded to move up to get Watson goes from looking like a mid to late rounder to #4.

 

I'm not saying that moving up to pick Watson won't ultimately be a fantastic move for the Texans; I'm just saying a year is a long time in the NFL.

 

Or it may be pick #22 again. We are rarely bad enough to be top 5 pick despite the negativity. (Twice in last 20 years not counting the move up for Sammy.)

Edited April 13, 2018 by What a Tuel

[Epstein's Mother]

5 minutes ago, What a Tuel said:

 

Or it may be pick #22 again. 

 

Exactly.  You don't truly know what you're giving up.

Edited April 13, 2018 by Epstein's Mother

[JohnC]

40 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I certainly agree with this.  I don't think the Giants' decision comes down to take a QB or trade back.  There are lots of alternatives in between, so you are not just bidding against other trade up teams but against the value for the Giants in taking Chubb or Nelson or Bakley as well.  

The same line of thinking applies if we end up negotiating with Denver, Cleveland at the 4 spot or the Colts, etc. As you perceptively noted we are not the only trading partner making the calculations for one's best interest. The irony is maybe by being shut out of deals the qbs get pushed down the draft board resulting in a minor deal to secure one of the more attractive prospects. Poker players who are composed are more likely to beat out players who are impulsive. 

[aceman_16]

11 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

I would rather the Bills give up more 2018 picks than the 2019 1st. I think giving up a 1st is always super dangerous as if your season falls apart you can really get set back.

Worked for Sammy Watkins (sarcasm font needed)!

[DefenseWins]

10 hours ago, Bag of Milk said:

So you are ok with sending a team three first round picks to move up 8 spots in the draft? 

Wow , just wow.

 

 

 

First thing to consider is that #22 represents the "proceeds" of the KC trade - a free bonus pick if you will... After all we still got Tre White as our @1 pick last year...

And if you look at #12 and #22 together you are essentially looking at two mid-1st rd picks... I don't believe that the Bills 1st rd pick in 2019 will be much different either. So you are trading 3 mid-1st rd draft picks for the #2 overall pick which you are hopefully getting a Franchise QB who may be here for the next 10-15 years. Yes you better get the "right guy". But overall for what you hope to obtain it is NOT an outrageous "investment"...

 

[Chuck Wagon]

I would prefer to hold on to the pick if the wheels fall off, but considering how much winning we did with Whitner, Maybin, Spiller, Gillmore, Watkins, EJ, Dareus & McKelvin, I'm not going to let it be a deal breaker.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, JohnC said:

The same line of thinking applies if we end up negotiating with Denver, Cleveland at the 4 spot or the Colts, etc. As you perceptively noted we are not the only trading partner making the calculations for one's best interest. The irony is maybe by being shut out of deals the qbs get pushed down the draft board resulting in a minor deal to secure one of the more attractive prospects. Poker players who are composed are more likely to beat out players who are impulsive. 

 

It does.... but then it all depends who the people that come off the board are.  If Chubb, Barkley and Nelson are gone by #6 the Colts lose a lot of their leverage.... because I'm not sure Fitzpatrick is a fit there.  

[Kirby Jackson]

19 minutes ago, JohnC said:

The same line of thinking applies if we end up negotiating with Denver, Cleveland at the 4 spot or the Colts, etc. As you perceptively noted we are not the only trading partner making the calculations for one's best interest. The irony is maybe by being shut out of deals the qbs get pushed down the draft board resulting in a minor deal to secure one of the more attractive prospects. Poker players who are composed are more likely to beat out players who are impulsive. 

The Browns are a sneaky good option. The Browns want to get their QB at 1 and an elite player at 4. What if the Bills offered 12, 22 and 56 for 4? The Browns would have 1, 12, 22, 33, 35, 56, 64, 114, 150, 175 and 188. The Bucs or Colts could easily slide down. Say the Browns gave the Bills 4 for 12, 22 and 56 and then turned around and traded 12 and 35 for 6 or 7? They could maybe get the EXACT same player as they would have at 4 and will have turned the 35th pick into the 22nd and 56th. That’s a great move by them. 

 

Again, this assumes (which we don’t know) that the Bills have the QBs graded closely. The Bills are thrilled because they get their QB, preserve their 2019 capital and picks 53, 65 and 96. Win - Win imo

[JohnC]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It does.... but then it all depends who the people that come off the board are.  If Chubb, Barkley and Nelson are gone by #6 the Colts lose a lot of their leverage.... because I'm not sure Fitzpatrick is a fit there.  

The team that will be interesting to watch in this draft is the Colts. They made a good deal with the Jets that adds premium picks. And if they can make a deal with Buffalo they can again come away with additional high picks. If they smartly work this draft they can come away with an infusion of talent that can bolster their roster. 

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The Browns are a sneaky good option. The Browns want to get their QB at 1 and an elite player at 4. What if the Bills offered 12, 22 and 56 for 4? The Browns would have 1, 12, 22, 33, 35, 56, 64, 114, 150, 175 and 188. The Bucs or Colts could easily slide down. Say the Browns gave the Bills 4 for 12, 22 and 56 and then turned around and traded 12 and 35 for 6 or 7? They could maybe get the EXACT same player as they would have at 4 and will have turned the 35th pick into the 22nd and 56th. That’s a great move by them. 

 

Again, this assumes (which we don’t know) that the Bills have the QBs graded closely. The Bills are thrilled because they get their QB, preserve their 2019 capital and picks 53, 65 and 96. Win - Win imo

Kirby, My head is spinning with all the possible options. Congratulations. You have just put me in a state of discombobulation. I feel dizzy and have to lie down. Are you happy now? 

 

What your Cleveland situation points out is that a good chess player can overwhelm a checker player when working the draft. 

[thebandit27]

12 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The Browns are a sneaky good option. The Browns want to get their QB at 1 and an elite player at 4. What if the Bills offered 12, 22 and 56 for 4? The Browns would have 1, 12, 22, 33, 35, 56, 64, 114, 150, 175 and 188. The Bucs or Colts could easily slide down. Say the Browns gave the Bills 4 for 12, 22 and 56 and then turned around and traded 12 and 35 for 6 or 7? They could maybe get the EXACT same player as they would have at 4 and will have turned the 35th pick into the 22nd and 56th. That’s a great move by them. 

 

Again, this assumes (which we don’t know) that the Bills have the QBs graded closely. The Bills are thrilled because they get their QB, preserve their 2019 capital and picks 53, 65 and 96. Win - Win imo

 

I was thinking about this as well--the Colts would be another team that could move back and then up again.

[Turk71]

2 minutes ago, JohnC said:

The team that will be interesting to watch in this draft is the Colts. They made a good deal with the Jets that adds premium picks. And if they can make a deal with Buffalo they can again come away with additional high picks. If they smartly work this draft they can come away with an infusion of talent that can bolster their roster. 

The ability to add starting talent for 4/5 years at a set salary is so important with the salary cap, and undervalued. It allows you to overpay for premium positions if need be, just don't pay a fat guy who hasn't been playing well 10 million to clog the middle, premium dts push the pocket.

[JohnC]

4 minutes ago, Turk71 said:

The ability to add starting talent for 4/5 years at a set salary is so important with the salary cap, and undervalued. It allows you to overpay for premium positions if need be, just don't pay a fat guy who hasn't been playing well 10 million to clog the middle, premium dts push the pocket.

Luck is their golden asset. They got to protect him and get him help to maximize that asset. If they smartly work this draft they can get him that help with an infusion of talent.