More Analytics That Suggests This QB Class Is Average At Best...

[DrDawkinstein]

2 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

This is what I believe: that Rosen and Mayfield are the only two QBs worth trading up for, and that Darnold and Jackson are the only two I'd even consider taking at 12. If Allen fell to the 2nd, I might take a flyer on him because we have two 2nd round picks...but every stat, every metric is screaming that this guy is going to be a huge bust. I want no part of him. 

 

That's certainly a fair and valid opinion, and Id never say you cant believe that. I'm high on Rosen too. Thats all I really care to believe I know. Everyone else Im leaving up to Beane to figure out. Oh, I also like Rudolph as a later pick too. But I dont love him or anything.

 

I dont bother predicting busts since it's kinda the easy way out. So many more players bust than boom.

[Domdab99]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

If we dont get into the top 3 and get one of the top guys, I will certainly blame Beane. Especially when a Division rival was able to move up into the top 3.

 

He should have either:

a. tanked the team to ensure a high pick (not ideal or my first choice of action)

b. made that trade with Indy

c. made the Giants an offer they couldnt refuse

 

I get that it takes two to tango and a large portion of variables are out of his control. But same could be said for every other failed GM who couldnt get us a QB.

 

We started making moves and planning for this as far back as last year's draft. We were the only team looking to move up that had 2 1sts to work with. Getting shut out now would be a major failure.

 

But that's assuming Beane thinks there are 3 QBs of equal value and trading up to 3 is fine, because you can take whichever of the 3 falls to us. And this is probably not the case. The Jets paid a premium to select what will most likely be the 3rd QB picked in the draft. LOL Jets, like always.

 

I do not think Beane feels that way about 3 of the QBs. He likes ONE QB. That's why he's waited. He's going to see who the Browns pick. If they pick anyone other than Rosen, I will bet that the Bills move up to #2 to take Rosen. And  I will be willing to bet anyone on this site $100 that if the Browns select Rosen #1, the Bills do not trade up to #2. 

 

But this is all dependent on the Giants wanting to trade down. They might want Rosen. Or Darnold, or whoever. And if that's the case, Beane can not be held responsible. You need a willing trade partner in order to move up. 

[DrDawkinstein]

Just now, Domdab99 said:

 

But that's assuming Beane thinks there are 3 QBs of equal value and trading up to 3 is fine, because you can take whichever of the 3 falls to us. And this is probably not the case. The Jets paid a premium to select what will most likely be the 3rd QB picked in the draft. LOL Jets, like always.

 

I do not think Beane feels that way about 3 of the QBs. He likes ONE QB. That's why he's waited. He's going to see who the Browns pick. If they pick anyone other than Rosen, I will bet that the Bills move up to #2 to take Rosen. And  I will be willing to bet anyone on this site $100 that if the Browns select Rosen #1, the Bills do not trade up to #2. 

 

But this is all dependent on the Giants wanting to trade down. They might want Rosen. Or Darnold, or whoever. And if that's the case, Beane can not be held responsible. You need a willing trade partner in order to move up. 

 

That's a lot of assuming you know what Beane thinks based on your own opinions.

 

Beane is the only person to hold accountable, as the GM. Whether it's fair or not, the buck stops with him. We've been making moves for an entire year to get our QB. If we fail to do that, it's Beane's failure.

[PromoTheRobot]

3 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

...And that Josh Allen is a monster bust.

 

There’s a new approach to NFL QB projections — and the 2018 draft class is in trouble

 

Great article. One of the things that stands out is that, based on this analysis, Josh Allen's ceiling is Ryan Mallett. 

 

***

"Heading into the NFL Draft at the end of April, so much analysis always focuses on the idea of projection, on what a guy might be able to do, not necessarily what he’s done.

This makes sense, of course, to a point — so much of success at any level is based on situation, scheme, and circumstance. The right coach, teammates, or system can make an immense difference, plus these guys haven’t faced NFL talent, with NFL coaching, before. Plenty of QBs with great college stats have bombed out in the pros, and plenty with merely good stats have thrived.

NFL GMs can be forgiven for thinking that, once we get a kid in our system, it’s all gonna work out just fine. We can fix his flaws and maximize his talent. Stats will only tell you so much. They are, dare we say, for losers.

If we look at the right stats, however, and do so from the right perspective, we can still get further down the road than we would get just relying on basic stats or the eye test.

For instance, we definitively know a prospect’s ceiling: His college stats."

 

You are harshing everyone's mellow.

[Radar]

3 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

 

But that's assuming Beane thinks there are 3 QBs of equal value and trading up to 3 is fine, because you can take whichever of the 3 falls to us. And this is probably not the case. The Jets paid a premium to select what will most likely be the 3rd QB picked in the draft. LOL Jets, like always.

 

I do not think Beane feels that way about 3 of the QBs. He likes ONE QB. That's why he's waited. He's going to see who the Browns pick. If they pick anyone other than Rosen, I will bet that the Bills move up to #2 to take Rosen. And  I will be willing to bet anyone on this site $100 that if the Browns select Rosen #1, the Bills do not trade up to #2. 

 

But this is all dependent on the Giants wanting to trade down. They might want Rosen. Or Darnold, or whoever. And if that's the case, Beane can not be held responsible. You need a willing trade partner in order to move up. 

I like this rational. Beane very well may feel only one guy is worth the capital to move up. Also agree that there is serious reason to doubt the Giants want to trade down in fact I don't think they "want to trade down" but under certain circumstances and the right assets in return may consider it. Too many here assume they are willing to trade down. Frankly #12 is probably not that attractive to them.

[starrymessenger]

I would have liked to see a comparison of college / pro success rate for the games best active QBs, notably including those that were drafted before 2010, and to have seen it for all of the years they were active, not just over their rookie deals. That success rate for QBs should generally diminish in the pro game doesn't really surprise me and I suspect has little to do with a meaningful QB performance metric. I think the writer might agree with that. But I'm not sure either that success rate is specific enuf to be valuable as a QB performance measurement tool to begin with and probably no more reliable as other QB metrics, and maybe even less so.

Anyway everybody knows that Allen is a risky pick who could bust. I would not move up for him for that reason but if the other  guys are off the board I'd certainly be ok rolling the dice at #12. Its a valuable spot, especially if guys like R. Smith are still on the board, but its just one pick and we wouldn't be gutting our whole draft. I expect he goes top 5, top 10 almost for sure.

Edited April 5, 2018 by starrymessenger

[mannc]

54 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

That's a passive, play-not-to-lose approach that's setting you up for a reach.

No.  You are confusing game strategy with draft strategy.  There are a number of highly successful NFL teams that never trade up (at least in the first round).  It's not "passive"; it's called being patient and not panicking like Lil' Dougy Whaley.

[Mikey152]

3 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

lol okay, I get it now....no one wants to actually discuss things, they just want to confirm what they already believe.

 

You see, for me, I'd love to move up and get a franchise QB. I just don't want it to be a huge boondoggle where we select a Blaine Gabbert or a Jake Locker. I don't know what the correct answer is - move up to #2 and sell the farm, move up to #6 and grab Mayfield if he's there, grab whoever falls to #12, or wait until the 2nd or 3rd round and draft a QB there, while filling out the roster with other picks.

 

I really don't know. 

 

But apparently, everyone here does. Good for you! Discussion be damned lol. 

I read it, and I have two major complaints...

 

A) Football statistics around player performance projection are silly when you try to apply real statistical analysis.  Any statistician will tell you there are too many random variables and not nearly enough of a sample size to draw any real conclusions.

 

B) This was clearly written with bias based on that last model, where he complete negates the fact that variables like conference and offensive system have huge impacts on efficiency and explosiveness.  The variation in quality of opponent, supporting cast and system varies WAY more widely in college football than in the pros.  It's not exactly rocket science to deduce that the heisman trophy winner in a QB friendly, wide open spread offense from a terrible defensive conference has the best stats.  It's also not a shock that a QB playing in a pro-style, downfield passing offense against generally superior competition has poor efficiency stats (and decent explosive plays).

 

My point is, these numbers should be used to evaluate a player against their own expected performance...not against each other.  Football, in the end, is the ultimate team sport...yet, here we are, trying to break it down into individual performance with stats.  It's a joke.  Most of these "tools" have to use projected draft position (ie the eye test) to weed out quarterbacks that, per their stats, would be "awesome" in the NFL.   Any tool that uses the tool it is supposedly trashing to establish its scope is just...dumb.   

Edited April 5, 2018 by Mikey152

[Virgil]

3 hours ago, Boca BIlls said:

Your posts are average at best. Trade up get the QB the team wants and start making the playoffs.

 

3 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

 

lol at least I read that article before having an opinion, Sparky. 

 

I think you two need to get through all this sexual tension you have building up

[RFL]

35 minutes ago, Radar said:

I like this rational. Beane very well may feel only one guy is worth the capital to move up. Also agree that there is serious reason to doubt the Giants want to trade down in fact I don't think they "want to trade down" but under certain circumstances and the right assets in return may consider it. Too many here assume they are willing to trade down. Frankly #12 is probably not that attractive to them.

Exactly and well said.  I always try and flip the deal......would we trade out of #2?  Imagine the horror if we did that.

[SouthNYfan]

1 hour ago, Domdab99 said:

And of course, if we do pick Allen, I'm going to hope I'm wrong and he's a fantastic QB for the Bills. 

 

At least we agree there

[transplantbillsfan]

Yet another piece of evidence that Baker Mayfield is the best of this bunch.

 

If we draft Baker Mayfield, I will buy his jersey.  I've only owned one other jersey in my life... Freddy Jackson.

[Domdab99]

1 minute ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Yet another piece of evidence that Baker Mayfield is the best of this bunch.

 

If we draft Baker Mayfield, I will buy his jersey.  I've only owned one other jersey in my life... Freddy Jackson.

 

[Boca BIlls]

32 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

 

I think you two need to get through all this sexual tension you have building up

I feel it deep inside me, get closer

[Domdab99]

35 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

 

I think you two need to get through all this sexual tension you have building up

 

I'm not sure about that, but I do know he is quite welcome to blow me. 

[reddogblitz]

50 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

 

I think you two need to get through all this sexual tension you have building up

 

Get a room.

[Chicken Boo]

2 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

 

If only we had some analytical data to look at, right?

 

Still doesn't make it accurate.  There are too many variables to factor in.  Like the coaching, system and team around them.

Edited April 5, 2018 by Chicken Boo

[reddogblitz]

3 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

Still doesn't make it accurate.  There are too many variables to factor in.  Like the coaching, system and team around them.

 

Not necessarily. A franchise QB would throw for 6 gazillion yards even if he was running the wishbone. Get with the program

Edited April 5, 2018 by reddogblitz

[Mat68]

Advance analytics favor the 3 to 4 year starter.  That is why Mayfield is so high.  He has 3 and a half years of games.  Rosen, Darnold, Allen, and Jackson are going to be the new normal.  With longer college seasons and systems designed for college success there is no reason to  stay longer in college than the minimum.  

Edited April 5, 2018 by Mat68

[DrDawkinstein]

1 hour ago, mannc said:

No.  You are confusing game strategy with draft strategy.  There are a number of highly successful NFL teams that never trade up (at least in the first round).  It's not "passive"; it's called being patient and not panicking like Lil' Dougy Whaley.

 

Whaley's biggest issue with the trade up was that it was for a WR, and additionally in a WR-heavy draft.

 

We're talking QB here. In just the last few drafts look at the moves the Eagles, Rams, Bears, Texans, and Chiefs have made to land a QB. And when teams arent trading up, QBs are still going immediately, like Winston, Mariota, Luck, and Newton.

 

That's what we need to go get. Otherwise, it's just more of the same. 2nd tier guy who we hope manages the game while we rely on the running game and defense. That's how we get 17 more years of drought.