More Analytics That Suggests This QB Class Is Average At Best...

[DefenseWins]

Comparisons between what a player achieves in college vs what they will achieve in the Pros are pretty much invalid because a player can get by in college on his natural abilities whereas in the pros he will be going up against the best of the best on every down. And that goes for every player at every position not just the QB's... Alot of players need a year just to adjust to the speed of the pro game...

[DrDawkinstein]

3 minutes ago, Tatonka68 said:

Sit at #12 and take best QB available. #22 best player available.

 

That's a passive, play-not-to-lose approach that's setting you up for a reach.

[reddogblitz]

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

 

If, after all this, Allen is the prospect Beane and McD have identified as their guy and move up to #2 to get him, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt.

 

My nightmare scenario is being shut out of the top guys, having to take a LB at #12, and then getting stuck with "whoever is left" at #22 (or even worse, in the 2nd round).

 

Agreed on giving him a solid chance if Beane thinks he's it. 

 

But really we have ZERO idea on Beane's choosing QBs ability. We already know McDermott's is highly suspect with sticking with Hotrod this year instead of drafting Watkins.  And, picking Nasty Nate and actually thinking he's ready to start a game when he clearly was not even close.

 

So we'll see.  I'd rather take a project in round 2 and keep all of our picks than trade up to pick Allen or Rudolph.

 

Like I said, I'm not sold on any of these guys.  If there's one or two or heck even three they think is IT, by all means go for it.  But to trade up to  get A QB just and getting one they don't believe in but is one of the top 5 would be foolish IMHO.

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

 

That's a passive, play-not-to-lose approach that's setting you up for a reach.

 

It all depends on what you are reaching for.

[Domdab99]

9 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Generally people don't provide links to a stance on a topic unless they agree with it, or they explicitly state in their opening post that they don't.

Why would you post something you didn't agree with? 

You only said you didn't know what the right decision was after people were like "this is dumb"

 

You do see the word "suggests" in the title, right? 

 

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, reddogblitz said:

 

Agreed on giving him a solid chance if Beane thinks he's it. 

 

But really we have ZERO idea on Beane's choosing QBs ability. We already know McDermott's is highly suspect with sticking with Hotrod this year instead of drafting Watson.  And, picking Nasty Nate and actually thinking he's ready to start a game when he clearly was not even close.

 

So we'll see.  I'd rather take a project in round 2 and keep all of our picks than trade up to pick Allen or Rudolph.

 

Like I said, I'm not sold on any of these guys.  If there's one or two or heck even three they think is IT, by all means go for it.  But to trade up to  get A QB just and getting one they don't believe in but is one of the top 5 would be foolish IMHO.

 

Last year's draft has nothing to do with McD's ability to pick QBs. There was no logical reason for him to go after a QB last year, knowing "Whaley and Co." were about to be fired. Why would McD trust Whaley's QB scouting? Why would McD saddle his incoming GM with someone else's QB pick?

 

Made much more sense to trust Whaley on things like DB and LB and even OL and wait on QB until this year.

 

I dont agree with trading up just to get A guy either. They need to identify THE guy(s) and go get him.

[reddogblitz]

5 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

One of the myriad "draft experts" floating around was on with Schopp and Bulldog the other day.

 

He insisted that he liked last year's QB class a lot better than this year's. 

 

Also of note: just about every "expert" agrees that each of the top QB candidates this year has at least 1 flaw to their game.

 

As to whether or not any of them are spectacular, only time will tell.

 

I'd rather swing and miss than hide.

 

 

 

Depends on what you're swinging at.  Sometimes on a 3-2 pitch, instead of swinging for some high inside pitch, you don't swing and take a walk.  Then you steal second.  Then the next guy grounds out and you get the third.  The next guy hits a SAC fly and YOU SCORE!!

 

There's more than one way to skin a cat.

[Domdab99]

10 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

If, after all this, Allen is the prospect Beane and McD have identified as their guy and move up to #2 to get him, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt.

 

My nightmare scenario is being shut out of the top guys, having to take a LB at #12, and then getting stuck with "whoever is left" at #22 (or even worse, in the 2nd round).

 

That's just more QB purgatory.

 

Say that to Cousins or Prescott or Brees or any number of QBs taken outside the first round. You've just said it's a crap shoot, right? If that's the, case, wouldn't it be better to have 7 or 8 rolls of the dice instead of only 2 or 3? 

 

Again, I don't know what the right answer is. That's why I'm interested in discussing it. 

[reddogblitz]

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

I dont agree with trading up just to get A guy either. They need to identify THE guy(s) and go get him.

 

But all your posts say you gotta trade and get somebody.  I have not see nyou ever say if they guy (s)they want are gone, don't trade up.

 

It's always don't hide, swing at anything because you miss the ones you don't swing at.

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, Domdab99 said:

 

Say that to Cousins or Prescott or Brees or any number of QBs taken outside the first round. You've just said it's a crap shoot, right? If that's the, case, wouldn't it be better to have 7 or 8 rolls of the dice instead of only 2 or 3? 

 

Again, I don't know what the right answer is. That's why I'm interested in discussing it. 

 

Brees was taken #32 overall, and the 2nd QB taken in the draft, so I cant really count him as a late pick.

 

Prescott is all about the situation he went into. It was the IDEAL situation for any rookie QB. And we'll see if he holds up over time. He's already slipped a bit in year 2. Same with Brady and Wilson. Each went to very QB-friendly situations. Great coaches and teams built around them.

 

Cousins is the only real outlier to come into a crappy team and play well regardless.

 

I'm done with those 2nd tier guys. I want a top prospect. But I do worry about our staff and situation for developing young QBs.

[Domdab99]

And of course, if we do pick Allen, I'm going to hope I'm wrong and he's a fantastic QB for the Bills. 

[RPbillsfan]

2 hours ago, Boca BIlls said:

Your posts are average at best. Trade up get the QB the team wants and start making the playoffs.

Wow, great response.  What is with you people who are obsessed with the big 4 of QB's.  

 

Darnold - Small hands and turnover probe

Rosen - Concussion issues and leadership

Mayfield - Short, comes from spread offense

Allen - Terrible footwork and pocket awareness

 

What's wrong with staying at 12 and taking the QB with the best athletic ability, can play from under center, has great leadership, top level arms and moxie and pocket awareness and who would be a monster in a RPO style offense like the Bills may move into.

 

Keep the rest of the picks, build our roster and develop Jackson and use him situationally in games.

 

Then play out the 2018 season, and use our full set of picks in 2019 and 70 million in cap space to fill any additional holes.

 

BTW - Let's see what the Steelers want for WR Martaveous Bryant as if he stays clean is the perfect compliment to Benjamin and hopefully Jones develops in the slot.

 

 

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, reddogblitz said:

 

But all your posts say you gotta trade and get somebody.  I have not see nyou ever say if they guy (s)they want are gone, don't trade up.

 

It's always don't hide, swing at anything because you miss the ones you don't swing at.

 

Oh, Ive said it. Recently even. If Giants stay put at #2 and the draft goes Darnold-Rosen-Allen in the top 3, then I dont think there is anyone worth trading up for. And my nightmare comes true. And Beane fails after a year of making moves.

[reddogblitz]

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

Same with Brady and Wilson. Each went to very QB-friendly situations. Great coaches and teams built around them.

 

Maybe we should try to build our own "QB-friendly situation"?

[DrDawkinstein]

Just now, reddogblitz said:

 

Maybe we should try to build our own "QB-friendly situation"?

 

But we dont have what those teams had. And it still takes a lot of luck to make those work.

[reddogblitz]

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Oh, Ive said it. Recently even. If Giants stay put at #2 and the draft goes Darnold-Rosen-Allen in the top 3, then I dont think there is anyone worth trading up for. And my nightmare comes true. And Beane fails after a year of making moves.

 

Sorry, must have missed that.

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

 

But we dont have what those teams had. And it still takes a lot of luck to make those work.

 

Maybe we should try to get what they had? 

 

Seattle's SB run didn't look like there was much luck involved to me.  Looked like it had to do wth  a lot of talent and a lot of good coaching.  I don't care who your QB  is, you ain't doing it without good talent and good coaching.  We got good coaching now I think.

Edited April 5, 2018 by reddogblitz

[Domdab99]

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Brees was taken #32 overall, and the 2nd QB taken in the draft, so I cant really count him as a late pick.

 

Prescott is all about the situation he went into. It was the IDEAL situation for any rookie QB. And we'll see if he holds up over time. He's already slipped a bit in year 2. Same with Brady and Wilson. Each went to very QB-friendly situations. Great coaches and teams built around them.

 

Cousins is the only real outlier to come into a crappy team and play well regardless.

 

I'm done with those 2nd tier guys. I want a top prospect. But I do worry about our staff and situation for developing young QBs.

 

I understand that, but everything we've seen over the past 30 years is that picking a franchise QB is a crapshoot, and no one really knows who is going to be good and who isn't, right? So again - why spend all your draft capital on ONE GUY when you can build up the other positions with very good talent (not 100% either, I know) and go after a Jackson in the first or a Lauletta in the 3rd? 

 

Now, if they know that Stud QB is THE GUY and they want him that badly...okay, I see trading up to get him. But you have to embrace the variance that you're going to be wrong in that spot more times than you're not. 

[Drunken Pygmy Goat]

Stats...

 

Numbers never lie, but they don't always tell the whole truth either.

 

Truth is, no one knows how good, bad, or average this QB class is (will become). Analytics is a tool, not an end all, be all. How much weight it carries depends on the preference of the person(s) using it. But you can bet that it does not carry anywhere close to as much weight as the game tape.

 

With that being said, perhaps this year's class is being overrated, to some degree. The premium on QBs is obviously high, but if you look at the potential QBs in the 2019 class (especially if you want to get all analytical and look at numbers), you'll understand why the demand for these QBs in this class is as high as it is. 

Edited April 6, 2018 by Drunken Pygmy Goat

[Domdab99]

7 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Oh, Ive said it. Recently even. If Giants stay put at #2 and the draft goes Darnold-Rosen-Allen in the top 3, then I dont think there is anyone worth trading up for. And my nightmare comes true. And Beane fails after a year of making moves.

 

Well, you can't blame Beane if the Browns and Giants stay put and don't make a trade. I think the trade up to12 was fantastic, no matter where we end up picking. 

Edited April 5, 2018 by Domdab99

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, Domdab99 said:

 

Well, you can't blame Beane if the Browns and Giants stay put and don't make a trade. I think the trade up ti 12 was fantastic, no matter where we end up picking. 

 

If we dont get into the top 3 and get one of the top guys, I will certainly blame Beane. Especially when a Division rival was able to move up into the top 3.

 

He should have either:

a. tanked the team to ensure a high pick (not ideal or my first choice of action)

b. made that trade with Indy

c. made the Giants an offer they couldnt refuse

 

I get that it takes two to tango and a large portion of variables are out of his control. But same could be said for every other failed GM who couldnt get us a QB.

 

We started making moves and planning for this as far back as last year's draft. We were the only team looking to move up that had 2 1sts to work with. Getting shut out now would be a major failure.

[Domdab99]

This is what I believe: that Rosen and Mayfield are the only two QBs worth trading up for, and that Darnold and Jackson are the only two I'd even consider taking at 12. If Allen fell to the 2nd, I might take a flyer on him because we have two 2nd round picks...but every stat, every metric is screaming that this guy is going to be a huge bust. I want no part of him.