Shaw66 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 (edited) I was thinking about the challenge of deciding on who's the best QB in the draft when it occurred to me that isn't necessarily the objective. I mean, sure, you always want to take the best player available, and sure, the Bills will rank the QB prospects 1 to 20 or whatever. But what matters most when you take a QB is to get one who's going to be a really good NFL QB. If you could choose among Manning, Rivers and Roethlisberger, what history tells us is that one may have better career than the others, but if you got one you were in good shape. The same may be true this year. Everyone seems to have a favorite, be it Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield or Allen. Which one of those you get is less important than if you get one of the guys in that group (or outside that group, for that matter) who turns out to be successful. Why does this matter? Because it informs the Bills in deciding whether and how far to trade up. If they think five QBs in this class are likely to have significant success, then they probably can sit at 12 and get a good QB. If they think it's only four look likely, then they can sit at 12 but have to be prepared to deal quickly once a couple of guys fall off the board. If they think it's three, they'd better start lining up a trade partner in the top 5 or better. If they think it's two or only one, then maybe they have to move to plan B. The point is, there's no sense in trading up if you think there are five legitimate starters in the class. Yes, you can trade up and get a better starter, but but the cost is prohibitive. I'll be surprised if the Bills trade up before round 1 begins. I think they go into round 1 knowing the general outlines of deals they'd make with two or three teams, and then they wait to see how the first couple of picks go. Edited March 22, 2018 by Shaw66 8 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackOrton Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Just now, Shaw66 said: I was thinking about the challenge of deciding on who's the best QB in the draft when it occurred to me that isn't necessarily the objective. I mean, sure, you always want to take the best player available, and sure, the Bills will rank the QB prospects 1 to 20 or whatever. But what matters most when you take a QB is to get one who's going to be a really good NFL QB. If you could choose among Manning, Rivers and Roethlisberger, what history tells us is that one may have better career than the others, but if you got one you were in good shape. The same may be true this year. Everyone seems to have a favorite, be it Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield or Allen. Which one of those you get is less important than if you get one of the guys in that group (or outside that group, for that matter) who turns out to be successful. Why does this matter? Because it informs the Bills in deciding whether and how far to trade up. If they think five QBs in this class are likely to have significant success, then they probably can sit at 12 and get a good QB. If they think it's only four look likely, then they can sit at 12 but have to be prepared to deal quickly once a couple of guys fall off the board. If they think it's three, they'd better start lining up a trade partner in the top 5 or better. If they think it's two or only one, then maybe they have to move to plan B. The point is, there's no sense in trading up if you think there are five legitimate starters in the class. Yes, you can trade up and get a better starter, but but the cost is prohibitive. I'll be surprised if the Bills trade up before round 1 begins. I think they go into round 1 knowing the general outlines of deals they'd make with two or three teams, and then they wait to see how the first couple of picks go. Legitimate starters mean guys like Taylor. There's ABSOLUTELY sense in trading up to take which QB you believe has the best chance of franchisedom. Point blank, period. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fansince88 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 5 minutes ago, jmc12290 said: Legitimate starters mean guys like Taylor. There's ABSOLUTELY sense in trading up to take which QB you believe has the best chance of franchisedom. Point blank, period. Except perhaps they dont think they need to pick a qb in 1st. Point blank, period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackOrton Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Just now, fansince88 said: Except perhaps they dont think they need to pick a qb in 1st. Point blank, period. Well, there aren't awards for being wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fansince88 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 (edited) 1 minute ago, jmc12290 said: Well, there aren't awards for being wrong. My point is we dont know what they plan. All we know is what we know. We know that last year they felt they needed to upgrade from TT. This year we dont know what their plan is except it doesnt include TT. Edited March 22, 2018 by fansince88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 They'll take the guy they really want and not reach for one. And I doubt they think there are 5 franchise guys in this draft. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billspro Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 I do believe Darnold is good enough to warrant moving up to number 1. I would be willing to trade 4 1st round selections for Darnold because I think he is a franchise guy. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillyG Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 14 minutes ago, jmc12290 said: Legitimate starters mean guys like Taylor. There's ABSOLUTELY sense in trading up to take which QB you believe has the best chance of franchisedom. Point blank, period. Taylor was never a legitimate starter in Buffalo. And really the only ones that can make sense of their draft board and if a jump is needed are the Bills. All depends on who they value the most. If they want Rosen and on their board he's far and away the best...yes trade up. If they have someone like Mayfield high they can see how the draft plays out and make a smaller jump possibly. If they have Lamar Jackson high they can sit at 12 and likely get him while keeping all their picks. Whatever they decide to do one thing is certain. More people than not on here will complain and say it was a stupid move while half hoping the guy selected fails so they can keep crying out how they are so smart. Point blank, period. 5 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jr1 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 I hope they don't draft a QB for the entertainment on the forum 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gobills1212 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 24 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: I was thinking about the challenge of deciding on who's the best QB in the draft when it occurred to me that isn't necessarily the objective. I mean, sure, you always want to take the best player available, and sure, the Bills will rank the QB prospects 1 to 20 or whatever. But what matters most when you take a QB is to get one who's going to be a really good NFL QB. If you could choose among Manning, Rivers and Roethlisberger, what history tells us is that one may have better career than the others, but if you got one you were in good shape. The same may be true this year. Everyone seems to have a favorite, be it Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield or Allen. Which one of those you get is less important than if you get one of the guys in that group (or outside that group, for that matter) who turns out to be successful. Why does this matter? Because it informs the Bills in deciding whether and how far to trade up. If they think five QBs in this class are likely to have significant success, then they probably can sit at 12 and get a good QB. If they think it's only four look likely, then they can sit at 12 but have to be prepared to deal quickly once a couple of guys fall off the board. If they think it's three, they'd better start lining up a trade partner in the top 5 or better. If they think it's two or only one, then maybe they have to move to plan B. The point is, there's no sense in trading up if you think there are five legitimate starters in the class. Yes, you can trade up and get a better starter, but but the cost is prohibitive. I'll be surprised if the Bills trade up before round 1 begins. I think they go into round 1 knowing the general outlines of deals they'd make with two or three teams, and then they wait to see how the first couple of picks go. This kind of bastardises the whole 'get the guy you love' thing. That, to me, is how you end up w a jp losman 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RochesterRob Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 2 minutes ago, billspro said: I do believe Darnold is good enough to warrant moving up to number 1. I would be willing to trade 4 1st round selections for Darnold because I think he is a franchise guy. 2018 - 2 1st's 2019 - 1 1st 2020 - 1 1st That is what you are talking and no thanks to that. That is assuming they don't discount this year's pick at 22 and ask us for more to sweeten it. 27 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: I was thinking about the challenge of deciding on who's the best QB in the draft when it occurred to me that isn't necessarily the objective. I mean, sure, you always want to take the best player available, and sure, the Bills will rank the QB prospects 1 to 20 or whatever. But what matters most when you take a QB is to get one who's going to be a really good NFL QB. If you could choose among Manning, Rivers and Roethlisberger, what history tells us is that one may have better career than the others, but if you got one you were in good shape. The same may be true this year. Everyone seems to have a favorite, be it Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield or Allen. Which one of those you get is less important than if you get one of the guys in that group (or outside that group, for that matter) who turns out to be successful. Why does this matter? Because it informs the Bills in deciding whether and how far to trade up. If they think five QBs in this class are likely to have significant success, then they probably can sit at 12 and get a good QB. If they think it's only four look likely, then they can sit at 12 but have to be prepared to deal quickly once a couple of guys fall off the board. If they think it's three, they'd better start lining up a trade partner in the top 5 or better. If they think it's two or only one, then maybe they have to move to plan B. The point is, there's no sense in trading up if you think there are five legitimate starters in the class. Yes, you can trade up and get a better starter, but but the cost is prohibitive. I'll be surprised if the Bills trade up before round 1 begins. I think they go into round 1 knowing the general outlines of deals they'd make with two or three teams, and then they wait to see how the first couple of picks go. There has been plenty of these threads and you can dress them differently but the tone is pretty much the same. People want to believe that there is a magical process to find a player and no doubt the pro's have a few secrets in that regard but it should be said there is no magic that is going to help us. Which is to say such magic does not exist. If the Bills move up and grab a guy then I will support it although I will not be happy about using multiple picks. Something tells me that there is no one QB prospect that stands above the others. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yungmack Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 While none of the QBs in the draft are Sure Things, Darnold is the closest to it. He's head and shoulders above all the other QBs, Rosen and Mayfield included. He'd be the only one worth paying a very stiff price to move up for. But the only way the Bills could guarantee that price would get them Darnold is to trade for the first pick. And there's not a chance that Haslam makes that deal. And if by some strange reason the Browns pass on him, the Giants are going to take him by all reports. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jobot Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Point Blank Period! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadLandsMeanie Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 (edited) You are in Las Vegas at the blackjack tables and based on the cards you have and the ones you have seen out you believe that you have a 60% chance to win and a 40% chance to lose this hand. Do you bet your entire bankroll, and hitchhike home if you lose? Or do you bet part of your fund and then steadily play the odds using your skill to assure that you have the advantage over time? Both approaches have merit but the more steady pace evens out the randomness of betting it all on a one shot advantage. I think the player who bets it all on big shots, will eventually wind up hitchhiking home. And the player who consistently and steadily plays his advantage while allowing for losses, will make his living at playing blackjack. I think McBean is the steady player and so I agree with the OP. Edited March 22, 2018 by BadLandsMeanie 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Who Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 1 minute ago, BadLandsMeanie said: You are in Las Vegas at the blackjack tables and based on the cards you have and the ones you have seen out you believe that you have a 60% chance to win and a 40% chance to lose this hand. Do you bet your entire bankroll, and hitchhike home if you lose? Or do you bet part of your fund and then steadily play the odds using your skill to assure that you have the advantage over time? Both approaches have merit but the more steady pace evens out the randomness of betting it all on a one shot advantage. I think the player who bets it all on big shots, will eventually wind up hitchhiking home. And the player who consistently and steadily plays his advantage while allowing for losses, will make his living at playing blackjack. I think McBean is the steady player and so I agree with the OP. Nice analogy. I have that sense about them as well, though I am somewhat more inclined to gamble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 (edited) 50 minutes ago, fansince88 said: My point is we dont know what they plan. All we know is what we know. We know that last year they felt they needed to upgrade from TT. This year we dont know what their plan is except it doesnt include TT. I would have to look but I recall someone on WGR said that the reason they traded back last year when they could have grabbed Mahomes was because they were going to address QB in 2018. I don't know if it was directly from McBeane or just wgr speculation but they acted like it was a "done deal" that they would be trying to draft their future starting QB. Unless of course they meant AJ or it was just making it look like they had a plan but they didn't. Who knows? Edited March 22, 2018 by The Wiz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fansince88 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 9 minutes ago, The Wiz said: I would have to look but I recall someone on WGR said that the reason they traded back last year when they could have grabbed Mahomes was because they were going to address QB in 2018. I don't know if it was directly from McBeane or just wgr speculation but they acted like it was a "done deal" that they would be trying to draft their future starting QB. Unless of course they meant AJ or it was just making it look like they had a plan but they didn't. Who knows? Well, Beane wasnt here and McD was supposedly calling the shots. Hard to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurker Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 54 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: The same may be true this year. Everyone seems to have a favorite, be it Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield or Allen. Which one of those you get is less important than if you get one of the guys in that group (or outside that group, for that matter) who turns out to be successful. Interesting point. Even though Allen may be a notch (or two) below Rosen, Darnold and Mayfield, he may be more 'value-able' to the Bills if they can get him at #12 and use the rest of the picks to build a very good team. Giving up those prospective players to land Rosen or Darnold might result in a better QB but lesser team--one that might not win as many games in the next 3-4 years, a time frame McBeane likely is most interested in from a contractual/career perspective (rather than the next 10-12 years, if Rosen/Darnold actually were to deliver HOF-type performance)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 2 minutes ago, fansince88 said: Well, Beane wasnt here and McD was supposedly calling the shots. Hard to say. True but I think it was later on after the draft that it was said and could have been either one of them. Again, I'm not sure if it was WGR saying it based on comments that one of them made or one of them actually said it but I get the feeling that they were planning on getting through TT's contract last year and then addressing it this year in the draft/FA. Again, who knows? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nihilarian Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 12 minutes ago, yungmack said: While none of the QBs in the draft are Sure Things, Darnold is the closest to it. He's head and shoulders above all the other QBs, Rosen and Mayfield included. He'd be the only one worth paying a very stiff price to move up for. But the only way the Bills could guarantee that price would get them Darnold is to trade for the first pick. And there's not a chance that Haslam makes that deal. And if by some strange reason the Browns pass on him, the Giants are going to take him by all reports. I agree with this and I think the only reason for trade talks is if the Browns and Giants don't want Darnold as their #1 guy. Then and only then it would make some semblance of sense to trade the farm for that elite QB. Darnold at 7.0 which is what they graded Wentz at. All the other QB's grade pretty close with Rosen at 6.1, Allen & Mayfield at 6.0. Jackson at 5.9 and Rudolph at 5.6. Like the 1983 draft, I think we could see six QB's go in the first round. Of all those 83 QBs, #1 Elway, #7 Blackledge, #14 Kelly, #15 Eason, #24 O'Brien, #28, Marino. Only one was a bum, 2 were starters and three were HoFes. What the difference between this year and past years is that this GM/scouting dept finally knows what they are doing and aren't just grabbing for straws like the team did with JP Losman to fill a need. What the team also needs to do that they failed at in past years is to truly develop a young QB. If they get Darnold I could see starting him day one and all the rest all need time to develop. I wouldn't be unhappy should the team not move up if Darnold is already gone. Then take one of the top four at #12 if one should drop and if not take BPA at #12 and Mason Rudolph at #22. What's interesting to me is why the Pittsburgh Steelers have so much interest in Rudolph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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