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Bills Aren't Necessarily Searching for THE Best QB


Shaw66

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3 hours ago, Buffalo Boy said:

Or Dan Marino 

Unless three of them are making serious hay in this league, in which case it becomes the new ‘83 

That has clearly NOT been true in the recent past but “ so far” McBeane seems to be on the right path

No if 3 of them get into the HOF on the first ballot then it would be like 1983...lets stop with the nonsense already. That's never happening with this class

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11 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

 

 

I heard a story once, true story, about a guy who was responsible for hiring in his company.   When he was asked how he selected candidates for a particular  job, he said he made two piles of resumes - one with history majors who played intercollegiate team sports, the other with everyone else.   Then he looked quickly through the everyone else pile to see if there was anyone there who might make it.   But he actually did just about all of his hiring out of the history major pile.   He did that because they had found over the years that those were the people who succeeded in that position.  When they hired good looking candidates from the other pile, they failed more often than succeeded.   Why history majors who played sports?   Because in the company, they worked in teams, and their business required big picture analysis.   History is a big picture discipline.   

 

 

You read real thrilling pages turners don't you?

 

 

 

 

Are they thinking of making it into a movie?

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On 3/22/2018 at 4:22 PM, Shaw66 said:

I was thinking about the challenge of deciding on who's the best QB in the draft when it occurred to me that isn't necessarily the objective.

 

I mean, sure, you always want to take the best player available, and sure, the Bills will rank the QB prospects 1 to 20 or whatever.   But what matters most when you take a QB is to get one who's going to be a really good NFL QB.   If you could choose among Manning, Rivers and Roethlisberger, what history tells us is that one may have better career than the others, but if you got one you were in good shape.   

 

The same may be true this year.   Everyone seems to have a favorite, be it Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield or Allen.   Which one of those you get is less important than if you get one of the guys in that group (or outside that group, for that matter) who turns out to be successful.   

 

Why does this matter?   Because it informs the Bills in deciding whether and how far to trade up.   If they think five QBs in this class are likely to have significant success, then they probably can sit at 12 and get a good QB.   If they think it's only four look likely, then they can sit at 12 but have to be prepared to deal quickly once a couple of guys fall off the board.   If they think it's three, they'd better start lining up a trade partner in the top 5 or better.   If they think it's two or only one, then maybe they have to move to plan B.  

 

The point is, there's no sense in trading up if you think there are five legitimate starters in the class.   Yes, you can trade up and get a better starter, but but the cost is prohibitive.   

 

I'll be surprised if the Bills trade up before round 1 begins.   I think they go into round 1 knowing the general outlines of deals they'd make with two or three teams, and then they wait to see how the first couple of picks go.  

 

I always appreciate your posts, but i think everything they've done since the new regime started has been leading to Rosen.

 

They're gonna trade up, I'm sure.

 

They got the capital, and they've collected it, with a vision.

 

McBeane is Nothing if not Bold, and Sure Footed.  Exactly what it takes to trade up and not mortgage the farm to do so.

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8 hours ago, matter2003 said:

No if 3 of them get into the HOF on the first ballot then it would be like 1983...lets stop with the nonsense already. That's never happening with this class

And you spotted Brady for the HOFer he was?

Im not saying you’re wrong but we don’t know until we do.

Marino went last in that class because all that weed smoking meant he wasn’t going to make it?

Bet there were a LOT of GMs who rued that draft for a long time.

Edited by Buffalo Boy
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On 3/22/2018 at 5:33 PM, Lurker said:

 

Interesting point.   

 

Even though Allen may be a notch (or two) below Rosen, Darnold and Mayfield, he may be more 'value-able' to the Bills if they can get him at #12 and use the rest of the picks to build a very good team.    Giving up those prospective players to land Rosen or Darnold might result in a better QB but lesser team--one that might not win as many games in the next 3-4 years, a time frame McBeane likely is most interested in from a contractual/career perspective (rather than the next 10-12 years, if Rosen/Darnold actually were to deliver HOF-type performance)...

 

this

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