BillsFan130 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, CountDorkula said: No problem, i'm just tired of people pointing out QB's that were taken in late rounds that are, like you said the exception, not the rule. 100 percent agreed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthNYfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, CountDorkula said: No problem, i'm just tired of people pointing out QB's that were taken in late rounds that are, like you said the exception, not the rule. 6 minutes ago, billsfan11 said: 100 percent agreed It's kinda like cars. You can bet your bottom dollar that Honda Civic and Toyota Corolla is going to run forever and be reliable, even if there is a lemon from time to time. Vs Chevy cavalier/Cobalt/Cruze/whatever small car name they use. Sure there have been some reliable vehicles in the bunch of Chevy cars, but overall, it's a safer bet to go with the Honda/Toyota vs the Chevy for reliability. Honda and Toyota are the top picks in the draft, Chevy is the late round flyer. I drive a Honda. So does my wife. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyrod's friend Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 21 minutes ago, N.Y. Orangeman said: Those aren't problems; those are your preferences. The data set is what it is and please feel free to do whatever you want with it, including disregard it. yeah. Data <> Information. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoTier Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 4 hours ago, slaphappy said: Need a list of can't miss prospects that a team moved up to draft in the top 5 that ended up busting. Taking one at 12 isn't the same as giving away the farm to take "the guy". Since 2000 ... 2004 ... the Bills traded up to get JP Losman 2005 ... the Redskins traded up to get Jason Campbell (yeah, he was a bust ... if he hadn't been a first rounder, teams wouldn't have started him) 2009 ... the Jests traded up to take Mark "Butt Fumble" Sanchez and the Bucs traded up to take Josh Freeman 2012 ... the Redskins traded up to take Robert Griffin III Sanchez was a #5 pick and Griffin was taken at #2. Lots of fans make the excuse for Griffin that his injury wrecked his career but the reality is that he never mastered any of the skills QBs need in order to be successful. He tried to continue to play the way he did as a rookie, and he couldn't do that physically any more. His inability to master the cerebral aspects of being a QB doomed Griffin more than his injury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prissythecat Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, SoTier said: Since 2000 ... 2004 ... the Bills traded up to get JP Losman 2005 ... the Redskins traded up to get Jason Campbell (yeah, he was a bust ... if he hadn't been a first rounder, teams wouldn't have started him) 2009 ... the Jests traded up to take Mark "Butt Fumble" Sanchez and the Bucs traded up to take Josh Freeman 2012 ... the Redskins traded up to take Robert Griffin III Sanchez was a #5 pick and Griffin was taken at #2. Lots of fans make the excuse for Griffin that his injury wrecked his career but the reality is that he never mastered any of the skills QBs need in order to be successful. He tried to continue to play the way he did as a rookie, and he couldn't do that physically any more. His inability to master the cerebral aspects of being a QB doomed Griffin more than his injury. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Hindsight Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 5 hours ago, Sky Diver said: It's a lengthy list. There are no guarantees in this business. Manziel Manual Weeden RGIII Gabbert Locker Bradford Kolb Quinn Russel Leinart Young Cambell Harrington Couch Kolb was a second rounder. Missing Losman, Ponder ect. This list is incomplete and inaccurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Captain Hindsight said: Kolb was a second rounder. Missing Losman, Ponder ect. This list is incomplete and inaccurate Not to mention irrelevant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sky Diver Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 (edited) Taking a break from casting the bronze bust of Rosen for the HOF? Edited March 19, 2018 by Sky Diver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddogblitz Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 5 hours ago, mjt328 said: If you want to succeed, you can't be afraid of failing. I would rather swing for the fences and strikeout, as opposed to playing it safe and stockpiling talent at other positions. Doesn't have to be either or. Sometimes you play it safe by not swinging at a high hearer on 3 and 2. Then you steal 2nd. The next guy hits a seeing eye grounder and you'e to 3rd. The next guys hits a long fly SAC and, guess what, YOU SCORE!! Perhaps that's what Mighty Casey should have done? Were you happy with EJ and JP? They were swing for the fences guys that failed. I'm all for swinging if it's a really good pitch. I have no desire in swinging for high outside curve balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N.Y. Orangeman Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, Tyrod's friend said: yeah. Data <> Information. Thanks. You prefer All-Pro over Pro Bowl for datasets and the premise of your 15 year period requirement is nonsensical. Again, these are your preferences (which is fine), but do nothing to undermine the validity of the data/information. Edited March 19, 2018 by N.Y. Orangeman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manther Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 11 hours ago, prissythecat said: Losman,Tebow, Ponder are missing from this illustrious list. Off the top off my head more than that are missing. Akili Smith Bengals? Same year as Ciuch and McNabb? 10 hours ago, mjt328 said: And the hits from that same time period include: Eli Manning - 2 Super Bowl rings Ben Roethlisberger - 2 Super Bowl rings Aaron Rodgers - 1 Super Bowl ring Joe Flacco - 1 Super Bowl ring Carson Wentz - 1 Super Bowl ring Not to mention guys like Matt Ryan and Cam Newton, who got their teams very close to winning a championship. If you want to succeed, you can't be afraid of failing. I would rather swing for the fences and strikeout, as opposed to playing it safe and stockpiling talent at other positions. Agreed. Take your shot. I feel the process to evaluate QBs in the last 5 year’s has improved AND with the pay skill lessening the blow of missing in the first round has changed the NFL. Its a new day and you must take your shot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillyG Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 11 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said: When does a TSW account with the name SaviorMcCarron show up? 11 hours ago, Sky Diver said: After he lights it up. ...in the first preseason game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyrod's friend Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 hours ago, N.Y. Orangeman said: You prefer All-Pro over Pro Bowl for datasets and the premise of your 15 year period requirement is nonsensical. Again, these are your preferences (which is fine), but do nothing to undermine the validity of the data/information. Data can be valid without being information. Information is of course useful data. By presenting it you are suggesting that getting to the Pro Bowl is some sort of meaningful hurdle. Hardly is. And beyond that, I doubt that anyone here is particularly interested in whether or not Elvis Grbec or Trent Green were drafted late and both got last minute access to a Pro Bowl. It is particularly the intersection of the age of the information and the watered down aspect of just making a Pro Bowl that makes it less information and just ... data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apuszczalowski Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 8 hours ago, CountDorkula said: Well since you already know the outcome, I guess there is no need to debate this anymore. The Bills will be stuck in suck forever. Yeah, because if you just trade up a lot of picks to the top of the draft for a QB you automatically no longer suck I never said I knew the outcome, but are any of these top 4 QBs being projected to be the next Brady, Brees, Luck or Manning? Odds are they are closer to being the next Winston or Marriotta, guys who are good players, but not can't miss gotta have franchise guys that guarantee you championships.... You don't need to have an elite Franchise Qb to be good/great if you can build a great team around them. Foles won the Eagles a SB, yes Wentz got them to the playoffs, but Foles had to step in and take it the rest of the way to beat one of the best defences and one of the best teams in the league. Blake Bortles and Tyrod Taylor were QBs for teams that made the playoffs while Matt Stafford, Phillip Rivers, Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott sat watching the playoffs from their TVs at home. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N.Y. Orangeman Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 (edited) 40 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said: Data can be valid without being information. Information is of course useful data. By presenting it you are suggesting that getting to the Pro Bowl is some sort of meaningful hurdle. Hardly is. And beyond that, I doubt that anyone here is particularly interested in whether or not Elvis Grbec or Trent Green were drafted late and both got last minute access to a Pro Bowl. It is particularly the intersection of the age of the information and the watered down aspect of just making a Pro Bowl that makes it less information and just ... data. edit: Nevermind..... Edited March 20, 2018 by N.Y. Orangeman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jay_Fixit Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Oh, Kevin Kolb was drafted in the first. Good to know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CountDorkula Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 10 hours ago, apuszczalowski said: Yeah, because if you just trade up a lot of picks to the top of the draft for a QB you automatically no longer suck I never said I knew the outcome, but are any of these top 4 QBs being projected to be the next Brady, Brees, Luck or Manning? Odds are they are closer to being the next Winston or Marriotta, guys who are good players, but not can't miss gotta have franchise guys that guarantee you championships.... You don't need to have an elite Franchise Qb to be good/great if you can build a great team around them. Foles won the Eagles a SB, yes Wentz got them to the playoffs, but Foles had to step in and take it the rest of the way to beat one of the best defences and one of the best teams in the league. Blake Bortles and Tyrod Taylor were QBs for teams that made the playoffs while Matt Stafford, Phillip Rivers, Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott sat watching the playoffs from their TVs at home. I love this argument. Foles played at an elite level, and is also an outlier. Next you'll tell me that Trent Dilfer won a superbolw 15 years ago. How many times have the Bills tried to build a team without a QB and failed? The Bills have the least amount of passing yards in the NFL since Kelly retired. Coincidence that they have sucked for so long, I think not. Who are the top Teams every Year and what do they have in common? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apuszczalowski Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Whenever it doesn't suit your out the boards narrative it's an outlier and doesn't count. The Bills have drafted 1st round And before and it didn't work out. They have gone with retreads and it didn't work out, they have also gone with under the radar later picks and it hasn't worked out. For whatever reason, and it's not always just the QB, they have been mediocre at best for a long time. They have had poor coaching as part of the cause, they have had times where the offence was actually good and the defence held them back, and other times where the defence was great and the offence was bad. Some of the better And in the league were not top of the draft 1st rounder (Wilson, Brees, Brady, Prescott, everyone's new favorite Garapolo, Cousins). Theres also guys taken near the top that i doubt anyone would be willing to trade the boatload of picks they want to move in this draft for (Winston, Marriotta, Bortles, Tannehill, Smith) No One can even decide who the best QB is in this draft, not because they are all so great, but because they all have some big flaws. That's why people have said this draft is more quantity over quality for QBs. Theres also lot of decent/good ones, just not elite ones. Just because everyone thinks the Bills have to have a elite one doesn't mean that if the Bills run out and throw a ton of picks out to move up and get one they will have some elite franchise starter for the next 10-15 years. It may be wiser to stay put and take the 5th best guy in the draft and save the rest of the picks to build up around them rather then blow a ton of picks hoping that the guy they chose may turn out to be the next elite QB. If the QBs in this draft where viewed as beimg the next Aaron Rodgers/Brees/Manning(s)/Brady elite QB, there would be almost no on arguing not to spend whatever it takes to get one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santana Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 20 hours ago, mjt328 said: Some of the top guys in this draft class (Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen in my opinion) have just as much potential as Wentz did. And Wentz wasn't the "clear cut best" QB of that class, which should be obvious because the Rams took Goff first. The ability of a coaching staff to "develop" a Quarterback is overrated. Coaches can only work with the talent they are given. We always hear about the Bills failing to develop quarterbacks like JP Losman and EJ Manuel. But neither of those guys did squat in the NFL after going to other coaching staffs either. It wasn't the coaches, it was the player. The ability of a coaching staff to develop a QB is NOT overrated. Just like your boy Goff, how was he with Jeff Fisher compared to being with Sean McVay? How about the QB's that Pat Shurmur has worked with? Of course it's not 100% but it drastically helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoTier Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 The OP's list is not accurate. Here are the QBs taken in first round by year between 2000 and 2014 from DraftHistory.com. The busts are bolded. 2000 #22 Chad Pennington* 2001 #1 Michael Vick 2002 #1 David Carr, #3 Joey Harrington, #32 Patrick Ramsey 2003 #1 Carson Palmer, #7 Byron Leftwich, #19 Kyle Boller, #22 Rex Grossman 2004 #1 Eli Manning, #4 Phillip Rivers, #11 Ben Roethlisberger, #22 JP Losman 2005 #1 Alex Smith, #24 Aaron Rodgers, #25 Jason Campbell 2006 #3 Vince Young, #10 Matt Leinart, #11 Jay Cutler 2007 #1 JaMarcus Russell, #22 Brady Quinn 2008 #3 Matt Ryan, #18 Joe Flacco 2009 #1 Matthew Stafford*, #5 Mark Sanchez, #17 Josh Freeman 2010 #1 Sam Bradford, #25 Tim Tebow 2011 #1 Cam Newton, #8 Jake Locker*, #10 Blaine Gabbert, #12 Christian Ponder 2012 #1 Andrew Luck*, #2 Robert Griffin III*, #8 Ryan Tannehill, #22 Brandon Weeden 2013 #16 EJ Manuel 2014 #3 Blake Bortles, #22 Johnny Manziel, #32 Teddy Bridgewater* * injuries may have compromised career Who on this list are consensus "franchise QBs" -- truly outstanding QBs who have been instrumental in making their teammates better; who have repeatedly shown the kind of leadership that enables teams to win close games, even coming from behind; and who have done that for more than a few years? I would argue that that list is pretty short: E Manning, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Ryan, and Stafford. Other excellent QBs a notch below the top QBs are Pennington, Vick, Palmer, Rivers, Newton, and Luck. Smith, Cutler, Flacco, Bradford, Tannehill, and Bortles are decent starting QBs but except for Flacco, all of them have been disappointments to the teams that drafted them. Flacco hasn't been the same QB who won the Super Bowl for more than just last season, so since then, he's been a disappointment, too. What these lists are missing are some of best QBs in the NFL because they weren't drafted in the first round at all! Consider ... 2000 6th round Tom Brady 2001 2nd round Drew Brees 2004 UDFA Tony Romo 2004 3rd Matt Schaub 2011 2nd Andy Dalton 2012 3rd Russell Wilson, 4th Kirk Cousins 2014 2nd Derek Carr There are also numerous later round QBs who were at least serviceable QBs like 3rd rounder Josh McCown, 4th rounders David Garrard and Kyle Orton, 5th rounder Mark Bulger, 6th rounders Matt Cassel and Tyrod Taylor, seventh rounder Ryan Fitzpatrick, and UDFA Case Keenum, which is more than one can say for many of the first round busts who didn't even make decent backups. The biggest fallacy getting bandied around on TBD is that if the Bills don't trade up to draft a QB prospect in the 2018, they're doomed to mediocrity or worse for the foreseeable future. In reality, numerous teams have found serviceable, even great QBs, after the first round. Is it as likely as finding one in the first round? Of course not because we all know the very best prospects go at the top of the draft no matter what position they play, and the best prospects have more success than marginal ones. Unfortunately, with QBs more than any other position, the opportunities for QBs who are not first round picks are severely limited. Most second or third or sixth round QBs don't ever get real shots at starting jobs. Among those who actually do, however, they seem to "hit" at least close to the same rate as first round picks taken outside the top five. Labeling successful QBs drafted outside the first round as "outliers" and dismissing them ignores the role opportunity, coaching, and support plays in ANY QB's success. Drafting a QB in the first round, even in the top five, doesn't guarantee that he'll be a franchise QB, and even if he has all the talent in the world, he needs nurturing. Consider this: Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson came into the NFL the same year, but Wilson went to a playoff team in search of a starting QB while Luck went to a team lacking talent on the field, along the sidelines, and in the FO. Luck has much more talent than Wilson but it's been largely wasted because of the lousy situation he's in in Indy. Some TBD posters need to remember this when they're tempted to hysteria over the Bills QB situation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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