apuszczalowski Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 You have to remember that if what you are saying doesn't fit the narrative or agenda of what the fan wants or believes, you can't count it because it's an outlier or a fluke, or whatever. But if it fits what they want it's fact. Bills dont have a franchise QB, fans want one cause the belief is you cant be successful if you dont have one, so now all the top guys in this draft are cant miss elite guys that you do whatever it takes to get one cause then your a perennial contender. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddogblitz Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 8 hours ago, CountDorkula said: I love this argument. Foles played at an elite level, and is also an outlier. Next you'll tell me that Trent Dilfer won a superbolw 15 years ago. How many times have the Bills tried to build a team without a QB and failed? The Bills have the least amount of passing yards in the NFL since Kelly retired. Coincidence that they have sucked for so long, I think not. Who are the top Teams every Year and what do they have in common? Actually it was 18 years ago. I'm all in on trading up IF we are trading up for someone we truly believe has all it takes to be the 15 year/every year contender/300+ yards per game/multiple Lombardi guy. If he's not that. then don't do it. Get some decent WRs and patch up the offense and pick a project like Falk or White or Lalauetta later on. There's another draft next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CountDorkula Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 11 minutes ago, reddogblitz said: Actually it was 18 years ago. I'm all in on trading up IF we are trading up for someone we truly believe has all it takes to be the 15 year/every year contender/300+ yards per game/multiple Lombardi guy. If he's not that. then don't do it. Get some decent WRs and patch up the offense and pick a project like Falk or White or Lalauetta later on. There's another draft next year. Because we haven't tried this approach before have we. {Vomits continuously} Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman1876 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 hour ago, SoTier said: The OP's list is not accurate. Here are the QBs taken in first round by year between 2000 and 2014 from DraftHistory.com. The busts are bolded. 2000 #22 Chad Pennington* 2001 #1 Michael Vick 2002 #1 David Carr, #3 Joey Harrington, #32 Patrick Ramsey 2003 #1 Carson Palmer, #7 Byron Leftwich, #19 Kyle Boller, #22 Rex Grossman 2004 #1 Eli Manning, #4 Phillip Rivers, #11 Ben Roethlisberger, #22 JP Losman 2005 #1 Alex Smith, #24 Aaron Rodgers, #25 Jason Campbell 2006 #3 Vince Young, #10 Matt Leinart, #11 Jay Cutler 2007 #1 JaMarcus Russell, #22 Brady Quinn 2008 #3 Matt Ryan, #18 Joe Flacco 2009 #1 Matthew Stafford*, #5 Mark Sanchez, #17 Josh Freeman 2010 #1 Sam Bradford, #25 Tim Tebow 2011 #1 Cam Newton, #8 Jake Locker*, #10 Blaine Gabbert, #12 Christian Ponder 2012 #1 Andrew Luck*, #2 Robert Griffin III*, #8 Ryan Tannehill, #22 Brandon Weeden 2013 #16 EJ Manuel 2014 #3 Blake Bortles, #22 Johnny Manziel, #32 Teddy Bridgewater* * injuries may have compromised career Who on this list are consensus "franchise QBs" -- truly outstanding QBs who have been instrumental in making their teammates better; who have repeatedly shown the kind of leadership that enables teams to win close games, even coming from behind; and who have done that for more than a few years? I would argue that that list is pretty short: E Manning, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Ryan, and Stafford. Other excellent QBs a notch below the top QBs are Pennington, Vick, Palmer, Rivers, Newton, and Luck. Smith, Cutler, Flacco, Bradford, Tannehill, and Bortles are decent starting QBs but except for Flacco, all of them have been disappointments to the teams that drafted them. Flacco hasn't been the same QB who won the Super Bowl for more than just last season, so since then, he's been a disappointment, too. What these lists are missing are some of best QBs in the NFL because they weren't drafted in the first round at all! Consider ... 2000 6th round Tom Brady 2001 2nd round Drew Brees 2004 UDFA Tony Romo 2004 3rd Matt Schaub 2011 2nd Andy Dalton 2012 3rd Russell Wilson, 4th Kirk Cousins 2014 2nd Derek Carr There are also numerous later round QBs who were at least serviceable QBs like 3rd rounder Josh McCown, 4th rounders David Garrard and Kyle Orton, 5th rounder Mark Bulger, 6th rounders Matt Cassel and Tyrod Taylor, seventh rounder Ryan Fitzpatrick, and UDFA Case Keenum, which is more than one can say for many of the first round busts who didn't even make decent backups. The biggest fallacy getting bandied around on TBD is that if the Bills don't trade up to draft a QB prospect in the 2018, they're doomed to mediocrity or worse for the foreseeable future. In reality, numerous teams have found serviceable, even great QBs, after the first round. Is it as likely as finding one in the first round? Of course not because we all know the very best prospects go at the top of the draft no matter what position they play, and the best prospects have more success than marginal ones. Unfortunately, with QBs more than any other position, the opportunities for QBs who are not first round picks are severely limited. Most second or third or sixth round QBs don't ever get real shots at starting jobs. Among those who actually do, however, they seem to "hit" at least close to the same rate as first round picks taken outside the top five. Labeling successful QBs drafted outside the first round as "outliers" and dismissing them ignores the role opportunity, coaching, and support plays in ANY QB's success. Drafting a QB in the first round, even in the top five, doesn't guarantee that he'll be a franchise QB, and even if he has all the talent in the world, he needs nurturing. Consider this: Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson came into the NFL the same year, but Wilson went to a playoff team in search of a starting QB while Luck went to a team lacking talent on the field, along the sidelines, and in the FO. Luck has much more talent than Wilson but it's been largely wasted because of the lousy situation he's in in Indy. Some TBD posters need to remember this when they're tempted to hysteria over the Bills QB situation. Note the fact that the first QB taken is far less likely to bust. And that the earlier they are taken the less likely they are to bust. In fact Tennahill and Cutler are the only successes taken after a bust and both of them are pretty middling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddogblitz Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 24 minutes ago, CountDorkula said: Because we haven't tried this approach before have we. {Vomits continuously} Drafting schmucks in the first round that flopped has worked too, hasn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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