Josh Allen one of the most overrated QB prospects this decade

[CountryCletus]

8 hours ago, BillsFan4 said:

If you're scouting Allen off his highlight reel (which it seems like many people do this time of year), he looks amazing. 

 

But when you watch him play entire games, not so much... 

 

 

He may have the highest ceiling of any QB in this draft, but I think it'll take a perfect scenario, and maybe a bit of luck, for him to reach it.

 

If yoire trading up for a QB it's already a huge risk. No reason to make that risk even higher by going with such a total boom or bust QB prospect. 

 

Plus, Accuracy issues can be pretty hard to fix.

The only one I can think of that has ever succeeded in the NFL with a 56% completion percentage is Matt Stafford. But when you look at his career lege career, Stafford had a 55% comp. his first 2 years in college, but then he improved that to 61% in his final college season. So he wasn't entering the draft after throwing for 56% comp. He had already shown the ability to be more accurate over a full college season. He had steadily improved over his 3 years in college, too. 

 

 

Ill get excited about and support whatever QB the Bills take. But I'd prefer someone other than Allen. But I'm not expert, so I'll defer to their judgement. It would be quite a swing for the fences drafting Allen though. If he hit his ceiling, we'd be set for a decade +. 

 

 

But then he goes out in the senior bowl, throws 9/13 (69%) for 158 (12.15 yards per attempt), 2 TD’s, 0 INT. Like someone else said- not trying to cherry pick stats from one game, but I am choosing this game to show you what he did in the one and only game where he had quality talent around him, unlike his time in Wyoming.  Only time will tell, but I don’t understand why people are so down on this kid...

[SouthNYfan]

9 hours ago, Crayola64 said:

 

In 2016, Yeezus (the OP) stated this same thing about Wentz and Goff lol.  Said the bills would be a joke to move up and take either of them and neither are worth a top 5 pick.  A solid quote "The bills do not need to be trading their future to pick top 3 in this draft. NO QB in this draft is worth a top 5 pick. They are all projects and hyped up b/c the QB class is mediocre at best. There is no Winston or Mariota in this draft." and 

 

 

See: 

 

 

 

It seems you do this every year haha

 

I like how he blatantly ignored your post

[Guest K-GunJimKelly12]

11 minutes ago, CSBill said:

 

Stop . . . there is a reason those people work in the NFL and we don't.

Yes, it is called nepotism.  There are probably several people on this board who would be better scouts, GM's and coaches than a lot of people in the NFL, if they had the time to devote their life to it as a career.  Lots and lots of people who are in the NFL fraternity are there because of who they know.  

If the NFL was filled with the most qualified/knowledgeable people, every team would have been running their team like the Eagles are now 10-15 years ago.  The fact that the Eagles in 2017 were the first team to put the  numbers into practice on the field, should tell you all you need to know about what an old boys network the NFL is.  The data has been sitting out there for over a decade for everyone to see and yet only one team has taken advantage of the numbers.

 

I honestly think there are many Madden players who would be much, much better game managers than almost all NFL coaches.  People joke about Madden but is by far the best simulation of a real NFL game and Madden players who have simulated situations thousands of times have a much better understanding of when and when not to go for it.

 

It's similar to what happened with poker.  You used to have all the old timers, who all knew each other and they ran the show for awhile.  Then in 2003 Chris Moneymaker won the WSOP and poker exploded.  Most importantly online poker took off.  With that, players could now go through hundreds of poker hands in the time it would take to play one live game.  These online players began to understand the numbers and situations better and better.  Now all those old time poker players, save a few are long gone and it's all young kids who came up playing online dominating the game.  They have seen the simulations and know how to manage the situations much better than those who came before them.

Edited March 14, 2018 by K-GunJimKelly12

[Yav]

Did anyone catch Albright on GR just now, he's saying that last year someone from the Bills told him they will be drafting Peterman and this year the same person is telling him Allen is the QB they are targeting, but he's not sure if that's a smoke screen or not. 

[NewEraBills]

10 hours ago, Yeezus said:

Can't think of many others that are projected this high in the draft with the skillset he has. 

 

he is literally being hyped solely based on his physical attributes. Height, weight, big hands. All factors that are virtually irrelevant when it comes to QB's translating into the NFL. 

 

Yet GM's are putting this guy infront of actual talents like Mayfield, Rosen, and Jackson, guys who have shown they have far more talent than Allen, but lack the physical size. It's a joke. 

 

Josh Allen has the skill set of a 5th round QB, the fact that he is being compared to Wentz is hysterical. He is one of the most inaccurate QB's in the ENTIRE DRAFT.  I can't even imagine wasting all of our hard work to take a guy who is a glorified JP Loseman. Lets throw away real skills like reading defenses, accuracy, footwork, QB vision. Allen is not good at any of these things, but he has 10 inch hands so let's put the franchise on his back. 

 

Every year there is always 1 team who gets suckered into these type of QB's, drafts them far too high, and wonders why they are looking for another QB in 2-3 years bc the guy they drafted has thrown more picks than TD's and still can't read an NFL defense. Please don't let the Bills become this team. 

7

 

There is only one other.  Kyle Boller and he was taken in the first round by the Ravens after they took Suggs at 9.  Boller was hyped up  because he threw the ball through a goal post from 50 yards out kneeling on one knee.  Brian Billick saw the arm strength and fell in love.  But Boller got Billick fired.

[RyanC883]

3 hours ago, DCOrange said:

 

To be fair, that’s the same number that Josh Rosen had against top 30 defenses this year and nobody seems upset about the idea of drafting him. Allen has plenty of holes in his game right now, but the deck was also stacked so far against him in those games. Nobody could reasonably expect him to produce.

 

And he also had at least one easy TD against Iowa that was dropped, not that 1 TD is much better. But I guess it’s easier to be dramatic since his WR couldn’t catch it and he therefore ended up with 0.

 

Edit: for what it’s worth, I have Allen rated as my #3 QB prospect in this draft, but I personally don’t like the idea of trading up for him. While I think the potential reward is worthy of a top 10 pick, I wouldn’t feel good trading so many assets to take such a risky prospect there. I think it’s going to be him or Darnold in Buffalo though. 

 

If he falls to 12, that would be easier to stomach.  But this is a guy who has had holes in his game since HS and did not improve.  I do not want to trade up for him.  

 

Who are your top 2?  

1 hour ago, CountryCletus said:

But then he goes out in the senior bowl, throws 9/13 (69%) for 158 (12.15 yards per attempt), 2 TD’s, 0 INT. Like someone else said- not trying to cherry pick stats from one game, but I am choosing this game to show you what he did in the one and only game where he had quality talent around him, unlike his time in Wyoming.  Only time will tell, but I don’t understand why people are so down on this kid...

 

I'm not sure people are "down" on Allen (it seems that way, and my comments likely make it seem that way), as they are nervous about allocating a top pick to him when Rosen and Mayfield have proven to be winners at the highest levels against top competition.  

 

And if Allen needs top talent on the OL and at WR to succeed, it seems he is better suited to go to a team with all parts in place (Denver, Pittsburgh, etc) than Buffalo.  We need a QB who makes those around him better.  

[NewEraBills]

4 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

If he falls to 12, that would be easier to stomach.  But this is a guy who has had holes in his game since HS and did not improve.  I do not want to trade up for him.  

 

Who are your top 2?  

Not for me.  The Ravens took Boller in the teens and we see how that turned out.  I just don't want Allen in a Bills uniform at all.  Maybe in the 3rd round but not before that.  Let someone else take the risk.  We've pinned ourselves in a situation where we need a guy that can come in and play pretty much from day 1 and Allen is not that guy.

[RyanC883]

Just now, NewEraBills said:

Not for me.  The Ravens took Boller in the teens and we see how that turned out.  I just don't want Allen in a Bills uniform at all.  Maybe in the 3rd round but not before that.  Let someone else take the risk.  We've pinned ourselves in a situation where we need a guy that can come in and play pretty much from day 1 and Allen is not that guy.

 

Yeah, I get that.  I agree Allen would not be a Day 1 guy.  We would need to find a day 1 guy.  If we take Allen, I'm not sure what Day 1 guy is left in FA at this point.  

[FLXbillsmafia]

Josh Allen was 94th in Y/A and 95th in completion %, among college QBs last year. He was one of the worst college QBs, statistically.

 

College stats can be overvalued, and they need to be looked at in context, but they do mean something. How many QBs like Hackenberg and Allen with terrible (not average, but terrible) college stats end up being great pros?

 

Even if Allen improves, there is no denying Rosen, Darnold, and Mayfield are much more pro ready.

[CountryCletus]

20 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

If he falls to 12, that would be easier to stomach.  But this is a guy who has had holes in his game since HS and did not improve.  I do not want to trade up for him.  

 

Who are your top 2?  

 

I'm not sure people are "down" on Allen (it seems that way, and my comments likely make it seem that way), as they are nervous about allocating a top pick to him when Rosen and Mayfield have proven to be winners at the highest levels against top competition.  

 

And if Allen needs top talent on the OL and at WR to succeed, it seems he is better suited to go to a team with all parts in place (Denver, Pittsburgh, etc) than Buffalo.  We need a QB who makes those around him better.  

I don’t think he needs top talent- I think he just needs more than a high school all star team around him....

[Augie]

Check out the video. It’s worth a chuckle.

 

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2018/01/josh-allen-wyoming-senior-bowl-throw-video-miss-workout-accuracy-browns-nfl-draft

[DCOrange]

17 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

If he falls to 12, that would be easier to stomach.  But this is a guy who has had holes in his game since HS and did not improve.  I do not want to trade up for him.  

 

Who are your top 2?  

 

He was a 2 star recruit coming out of high school who only got a chance to play Division 1 because Wyoming's target went to Syracuse instead. You don't go from literally no college wanting you to being a potential #1 overall pick without improving.

 

My top 2 are Lamar Jackson and Sam Darnold.

[Dr. Who]

10 hours ago, kdiggz said:

The guy is a legit talent but he needs to sit and learn behind a QB that knows what they are doing. He would have been great in NY behind Eli for 2 yrs. If he goes to the Bills who is he going to learn from? McCaron? He will beat him out and then get thrown in too early and flame out. Who do we even have as a QB coach? We are putting all of these resources into selecting a young QB but then what are we going to do to make sure they are successful?

I think this is the correct set of questions.  For those who simply dismiss Allen, both Mayock and Daniel Jeremiah have him rated the number two qb prospect in the draft.  I also seem to recall Jeremiah saying that he values accuracy over arm strength, so I don't think he is just blindly going by Allen's ridiculous arm strength.  Regardless, my view is that Allen is a low floor, high ceiling fella.  I would much prefer someone with a higher floor.  For certain, if you don't have the right support in place and patience, Josh Allen will bust.  I just don't see Buffalo as set up to nurture this guy properly.  If they draft him, I will hope and pray I am wrong.

[hemma]

I'm just excited that we finally got rid of one rb/qb and now we're going to get an actual quarterback.

I hope.

[Reed83HOF]

[NewEraBills]

1 hour ago, Dr. Who said:

I think this is the correct set of questions.  For those who simply dismiss Allen, both Mayock and Daniel Jeremiah have him rated the number two qb prospect in the draft.  I also seem to recall Jeremiah saying that he values accuracy over arm strength, so I don't think he is just blindly going by Allen's ridiculous arm strength.  Regardless, my view is that Allen is a low floor, high ceiling fella.  I would much prefer someone with a higher floor.  For certain, if you don't have the right support in place and patience, Josh Allen will bust.  I just don't see Buffalo as set up to nurture this guy properly.  If they draft him, I will hope and pray I am wrong.

1

 

You don't think people had Kyle Boller rated high?  They did.  Also with Mayock and Jeremiah,  you have to read in between the lines of what they say.  Mayock for instance,   says that Allen needs a lot of work but it's the arm strength that is going to draw GMs' in.  What does that suggest?  What it suggests is that they project him in their top 2 off of POTENTIAL, Measurealbes and Arm Strenth ALONE.  That's not the QB that I want for the Bills.  That's not the QB that this team needs given the situation that we've put ourselves in, ie., needing a day 1 starter.  

 

Certainly, Allen has a high floor but all of that language is abstract to me.  High floor, low ceiling.  None of it lands anywhere.  Give me concrete.  I'm not jumping on your case as I agree with your overall point.  I'm just not for Allen for the Bills.  If the Steelers took him I could see him becoming good.

Edited March 14, 2018 by NewEraBills

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, NewEraBills said:

 

You don't think people had Kyle Boller rated high?  They did.  Also with Mayock and Jeremiah,  you have to read in between the lines of what they say.  Mayock for instance,   says that Allen needs a lot of work but it's the arm strength that is going to draw GMs' in.  What does that suggest?  What it suggests is that they project him in their top 2 off of POTENTIAL, Measurealbes and Arm Strenth ALONE.  That's not the QB that I want for the Bills.  That's not the QB that this team needs given the situation that we've put ourselves in, ie., needing a day 1 starter.

Well, I can't really argue the validity of an implicit message.  In terms of your overall view of Buffalo and Allen, I think we are in agreement.

[NewEraBills]

Just now, Dr. Who said:

Well, I can't really argue the validity of an implicit message.  In terms of your overall view of Buffalo and Allen, I think we are in agreement.

 

We are I just went back and edited the post.  This Allen thing just has me, cringing lol.

[buffalover4life]

3 hours ago, CountryCletus said:

 

I’m glad you aren’t the Bills talent evaluator.... I certainly don’t want another 6’0” QB... I would be happy with Rosen or Allen... Darnold doesn’t pass the eye test to me... lots of turnovers, poor ball security and his elongated throwing motion is the worst I have seen from a consensus top 10 pick in forever

Baker is the Best QB in the draft, Same height as drew Brees, an inch shorter than Aaron Rodgers an inch taller than Russel Wilson. Height is not indicative of a good QB, though I hear it makes it easier to see, If baker was 6' 3" (2 inches taller) he would be a lock for #1. Baker has 5K passer written all over him but maybe he is too short

 

That said, Rosen is the safest pick. 

[dickleyjones]

13 hours ago, Yeezus said:

Can't think of many others that are projected this high in the draft with the skillset he has. 

 

he is literally being hyped solely based on his physical attributes. Height, weight, big hands. All factors that are virtually irrelevant when it comes to QB's translating into the NFL. 

 

Yet GM's are putting this guy infront of actual talents like Mayfield, Rosen, and Jackson, guys who have shown they have far more talent than Allen, but lack the physical size. It's a joke. 

 

Josh Allen has the skill set of a 5th round QB, the fact that he is being compared to Wentz is hysterical. He is one of the most inaccurate QB's in the ENTIRE DRAFT.  I can't even imagine wasting all of our hard work to take a guy who is a glorified JP Loseman. Lets throw away real skills like reading defenses, accuracy, footwork, QB vision. Allen is not good at any of these things, but he has 10 inch hands so let's put the franchise on his back. 

 

Every year there is always 1 team who gets suckered into these type of QB's, drafts them far too high, and wonders why they are looking for another QB in 2-3 years bc the guy they drafted has thrown more picks than TD's and still can't read an NFL defense. Please don't let the Bills become this team. 

 

that's a nice opinion you have there. too bad you don't actually know.