Andrew Luck to Bills speculation/chatter

[YoloinOhio]

1 hour ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Are you implying that Blake Bortles was equivalent to a healthy, pre injury, Andrew luck?

Luck would have won a SB with Jax defense, OL and Fournette.

Edited February 2, 2018 by YoloinOhio

[SouthNYfan]

Just now, YoloinOhio said:

Luck would have won a SB with Jax defense, OL and Fournette.

 

Exactly.

It's an insult that he even mentioned pre-injury luck in the same sentence as Blake the fake

[Just Joshin']

42 minutes ago, BigBuff423 said:

 

And I'm certainly not saying they can't or that Luck won't be his original self of football splendor. But what I am saying is that to me, IMHO, it is MORE of a risk to give up so much to get a guy you know for a fact is: 1. 29 years old 2. serious injury to throwing shoulder. When you can essentially take the same risk on a guy who you BELIEVE has similar potential but also know for a fact: 1. is 22 years old 2. is not injured and has unbelievable capabilities. 

You are minimizing the fact that 50% of first round QBs bust.  If you could get Darnold or Rosen for the same price as Luck I would say yes.  The others, no.

 

Of course any option is based on Luck passing a physical. From reports it sounds like the timing if off to be sold before the draft.

[4merper4mer]

3 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Luck would have won a SB with Jax defense, OL and Fournette.

Except his cap number prevents something like that from ever happening.

 

I'll refrain from posting his playoff interception numbers because even without his poor playoff play, he still inhibited the Colts enough.

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

Jacksonville has the best D in the league.  In Luck's tenure at the Colts the D has uniformly stunk.  Comparing Luck to Bortles based on their team records vs. what they actualy do as QB is like comparing a Ferrari to a VW Beetle.

 

IF Luck is available and IF after exhaustive medical testing it is determined he's healthy the Bills would be insane to not make the trade. 

Legend Luck has to be surrounded by a poor roster due to trade capital spent and cap hit.  No QB in history has lived up to Luck's pre draft hype.  That is not his fault, but it is a fact.

 

 Luck's actual performance is roughly equal to the pre draft hype for Matt Barkley, who was touted as a mid firster.  Obviously he is better than the actual Barkley.

[GG]

This thread is a gift

[SouthNYfan]

10 minutes ago, BillsFan2313 said:

 

Dude's a bust

 

on a bum shoulder in 2016, he threw for 4200 yards and 31 tds. Remember when he threw for 4700 yards and 40 tds? I remember telling myself "I never want that bum on my team"

I hated his AFC championship run in 2014. We can do so much better than Andrew Luck

 

 

I'm not sold on him because I'm not sure what they'd want in return, or what shape his arm might be in (nobody knows either yet)

 

Pre-injury?

Dude was completely legit elite.

Best QB situation in the NFL pre-injury when factoring in his age at the time, since they looked to be set for a decade+.

 

Now?

Huge question marks surrounding his arm.

As I said, worth a look, see what they'd want in return, but the opportunity vs cost might be favorable.

[YoloinOhio]

8 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Except his cap number prevents something like that from ever happening.

 

I'll refrain from posting his playoff interception numbers because even without his poor playoff play, he still inhibited the Colts enough.

Legend Luck has to be surrounded by a poor roster due to trade capital spent and cap hit.  No QB in history has lived up to Luck's pre draft hype.  That is not his fault, but it is a fact.

 

 Luck's actual performance is roughly equal to the pre draft hype for Matt Barkley, who was touted as a mid firster.  Obviously he is better than the actual Barkley.

Maybe, maybe not. Jax had a rookie LT, RB and several on D on rookie contracts. But the point is you can’t compare Luck’s trip to the AFCC with Bortles’ and insinuate they did the same thing. It’s apples and oranges imo.

Edited February 2, 2018 by YoloinOhio

[BillsFan2313]

1 minute ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

I'm not sold on him because I'm not sure what they'd want in return, or what shape his arm might be in (nobody knows either yet)

 

Pre-injury?

Dude was completely legit elite.

Best QB situation in the NFL pre-injury when factoring in his age at the time, since they looked to be set for a decade+.

 

Now?

Huge question marks surrounding his arm.

As I said, worth a look, see what they'd want in return, but the opportunity vs cost might be favorable.

 

I get that. I was just responding to someone sounding as if Luck has been a bust his whole career. I understand the risks it takes for Luck, but depending on what it takes to get him, I am willing to take the risk. If it takes both 1st this year, I think it's worth the risk. If it takes both 1sts this year, and a 1st next year, I don't know about that.

[SouthNYfan]

8 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Except his cap number prevents something like that from ever happening.

 

2018 cap hits for QBs.

 

Andrew Luck    $24,400,000    
Russell Wilson    $23,786,764    
Ben Roethlisberger    $23,200,000   
Eli Manning    $22,200,000    
Tom Brady    $22,000,000    
Philip Rivers    $22,000,000    
Matt Ryan    $21,650,000    
Cam Newton    $21,500,000

 

I guess somebody should tell the pats, falcons, Steelers, and Panthers that you shouldn't spend over $20mil on your franchise QB

Same goes to the Seahawks, chargers, and Giants

1 minute ago, BillsFan2313 said:

 

I get that. I was just responding to someone sounding as if Luck has been a bust his whole career. I understand the risks it takes for Luck, but depending on what it takes to get him, I am willing to take the risk. If it takes both 1st this year, I think it's worth the risk. If it takes both 1sts this year, and a 1st next year, I don't know about that.

 

Yeah I know you were

I accidentally deleted the part where I agreed with you 100%

[4merper4mer]

Just now, YoloinOhio said:

Maybe, maybe not. They had a rookie LT, RB and several on D on rookie contracts. But the point is you can’t compare Luck’s trip to the AFCC with Bortles’ and insinuate they did the same thing. It’s apples and oranges imo.

Football is a team game and the teams did the EXACT same thing.  If anything, Jax won a tougher division and played better against NE.

 

Maybe some people want a QB with legendary status, decent performance and a poor supporting cast.  I'd prefer a team that has a chance to win.

 

As an aside, Luck was the only QB Rex's crap defense fooled the entire time he was here.  That can't be good.

[BrooklynBills]

1 hour ago, 4merper4mer said:

In their best seasons, they both won a terrible division, a playoff home game, a solid road playoff and lost at NE.  Same. Exact. Results.  I'm not saying Bortles is equal, but given the cap hits and the rosters they enable, equivalent may be a good word.

 

Hailing Luck as a savior seven years into a career in which he has saved exactly bupkus, trading 35 picks for him and spending 40% of your cap is NOT too bright.

 

Andrew Luck's contract details when traded for:

2018: 18 mil cap hit (14th highest cap hit for QBs)

2019: 21.125 mil cap hit (12th)

2020: 22 mil cap hit (6th)

2021: 21 mil cap hit (4th)

 

Compared to what QBs are signing for, this is a pittance.  And that does not include what Cousins or Keenum will sign for this offseason and in 2020 and 2021, he is one of only a handful of QBs still signed and his contract would rank last among those QBs.  His contract is an absolute bargain especially when traded for.  The 21 million in 2021 also gives the team a great number to work with when trying to extend him.

 

He has been a total one man how in Indy has posted multiple 11-5 seasons and has reached the AFC championship game.  Also, you can see how ****ty that team was once he could not play this year. I would trade ALOT to get him here absolutely.

 

Why would Indy do it?

 

On the surface it looks pretty foolish to trade him.  Proven high end QB. Bringing in a new offensive coach/NE offense. The only way it makes sense to me is if there is some truth to the rumors that he is upset with ownership/management there(i.e. Jim Irsay), which is not a stretch AT ALL.  He has been handled very poorly there.  Secondly, the Colts are picking 3rd, which means that they could use the haul that they get from the Bills in picks/players(I'd imagine it would be something like Glenn/18 1st/18 2nd/19 1st/19 4th for Luck and 2 3rd day picks) to quickly rebuild their OL and have the ammo to get Josh Rosen in the draft.  If you are the Colts, what gives you a better team long term - Luck plus the 3rd pick this year OR Rosen plus a haul of day 1 picks over the next 2 years? Objectively, it is not crazy.

[4merper4mer]

2 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

2018 cap hits for QBs.

 

Andrew Luck    $24,400,000    
Russell Wilson    $23,786,764    
Ben Roethlisberger    $23,200,000   
Eli Manning    $22,200,000    
Tom Brady    $22,000,000    
Philip Rivers    $22,000,000    
Matt Ryan    $21,650,000    
Cam Newton    $21,500,000

 

I guess somebody should tell the pats, falcons, Steelers, and Panthers that you shouldn't spend over $20mil on your franchise QB

Same goes to the Seahawks, chargers, and Giants

 

 

With the exception of Rivers, the guys UNDER Luck on that list all got their teams to the Super Bowl, and some won, BEFORE they got the money.  You want to prepay this guy AND give up a bunch of firsts?  Why?

[oldmanfan]

22 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Except his cap number prevents something like that from ever happening.

 

I'll refrain from posting his playoff interception numbers because even without his poor playoff play, he still inhibited the Colts enough.

Legend Luck has to be surrounded by a poor roster due to trade capital spent and cap hit.  No QB in history has lived up to Luck's pre draft hype.  That is not his fault, but it is a fact.

 

 Luck's actual performance is roughly equal to the pre draft hype for Matt Barkley, who was touted as a mid firster.  Obviously he is better than the actual Barkley.

You are confusing a QB's record with a team's record.  The Colts put squat around him and they still got to a conference championship.  I live just outside Indy and watch Luck a lot.  He is the real deal.  If we could get a healthy Luck we'd be crazy to turn it down.

 

You equated Luck with Bortles.  I think most anyone in the league would say that's laughable.

[BringBackOrton]

11 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

With the exception of Rivers, the guys UNDER Luck on that list all got their teams to the Super Bowl, and some won, BEFORE they got the money.  You want to prepay this guy AND give up a bunch of firsts?  Why?

Yes, choking in the Super Bowl is soooooooo much better than losing in the AFCCG.

[dave mcbride]

24 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Football is a team game and the teams did the EXACT same thing.  If anything, Jax won a tougher division and played better against NE.

 

Maybe some people want a QB with legendary status, decent performance and a poor supporting cast.  I'd prefer a team that has a chance to win.

 

As an aside, Luck was the only QB Rex's crap defense fooled the entire time he was here.  That can't be good.

 

The claim that his was the only qb that Rex's defense fooled is simply not true. Man, just a couple of weeks later, they absolutely smothered Miami and won 41-14. 

 

Your hate of Luck, is very strong, and frankly borders on trolldom at this point. When he starts, the bad franchise he plays for wins a fair bit more than it loses. If healthy (and fwiw I think he will be), he would quite possibly end up being the best qb in team history. He's certainly likely to be better than Bledsoe/Fergy/Flutie. As for Kelly, who knows, but it is the case that Jimbo really only had 2-3 truly elite seasons in his career (1990, 1991, and I'd add 1995 given the situation).

 

having said all of this, I don't see the trade ever happening. The one wild card is that Luck might be demanding to get out given how Indy handled the injury situation.

Edited February 2, 2018 by dave mcbride

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

What ever they are smoking  I WANT SOME!!!! 

44 minutes ago, GG said:

This thread is a gift

 

[BrooklynBills]

7 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

With the exception of Rivers, the guys UNDER Luck on that list all got their teams to the Super Bowl, and some won, BEFORE they got the money.  You want to prepay this guy AND give up a bunch of firsts?  Why?

Cap hit rank for starting QB in Super Bowls:

 

52: 19 v 47

51: 3 v 18

50: 6 v 15

49: 11 v 53

48: 3 v 52

47: 16 v 48

46: 4 v 7

 

5/14 = big contracts

3/14 = unicorn late round rookie contracts

2/14 = last year of 1st round rookie contract

3/14 = Brady

1/14 = Nick Foles

 

There is no one way, but to say a team with a top 5/10 QB contract is not in a good position for a Super Bowl run is false.

[SouthNYfan]

37 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

With the exception of Rivers, the guys UNDER Luck on that list all got their teams to the Super Bowl, and some won, BEFORE they got the money.  You want to prepay this guy AND give up a bunch of firsts?  Why?

 

 

Except Brady and Ryan were in the Superbowl last year, Brady again this year, with $20+ mil salaries.

Peyton was over $20 with Denver.

 

So yeah.

33 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

You are confusing a QB's record with a team's record.  The Colts put squat around him and they still got to a conference championship.  I live just outside Indy and watch Luck a lot.  He is the real deal.  If we could get a healthy Luck we'd be crazy to turn it down.

 

You equated Luck with Bortles.  I think most anyone in the league would say that's laughable.

 

Yep

 

8 minutes ago, BrooklynBills said:

Cap hit rank for starting QB in Super Bowls:

 

52: 19 v 47

51: 3 v 18

50: 6 v 15

49: 11 v 53

48: 3 v 52

47: 16 v 48

46: 4 v 7

 

5/14 = big contracts

3/14 = unicorn late round rookie contracts

2/14 = last year of 1st round rookie contract

3/14 = Brady

1/14 = Nick Foles

 

There is no one way, but to say a team with a top 5/10 QB contract is not in a good position for a Super Bowl run is false.

 

This.

[BillsVet]

13 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

lol Manning had an all-time great defense to win games for him and Brees wasn't hurt nearly as bad as Luck is. 

 

Brees had a torn labrum. That's what it sounds like Luck has from the reports I've seen.

 

https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/2017/08/16/andrew-lucks-secret-pain-timeline-injury-colts-hid-more-than-year/523709001/

 

10 hours ago, PIZ said:

Andrew Luck's injury is in his head.  Thank God Irsay doesn't own the Bills.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/jim-irsay-told-tony-dungy-that-andrew-lucks-injury-is-inside-his-head/

 

If this is true, I can't imagine Luck is enamored with the Colts organization, particularly the medical staff. That, and Indy has never built a decent OL which has allowed him to be among the league's most hit QB's. Throw in that they've failed to find solid skill players and it wouldn't surprise me that he's interested in moving on.

 

The prospect of McDaniels dealing incumbent QBs also isn't lost here. I could see him wanting someone who will be young and impressionable.

 

[Kirby Jackson]

4 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

Brees had a torn labrum. That's what it sounds like Luck has from the reports I've seen.

 

https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/2017/08/16/andrew-lucks-secret-pain-timeline-injury-colts-hid-more-than-year/523709001/

 

 

If this is true, I can't imagine Luck is enamored with the Colts organization, particularly the medical staff. That, and Indy has never built a decent OL which has allowed him to be among the league's most hit QB's. Throw in that they've failed to find solid skill players and it wouldn't surprise me that he's interested in moving on.

 

The prospect of McDaniels dealing incumbent QBs also isn't lost here. I could see him wanting someone who will be young and impressionable.

 

 You are right. Brees’ injury was very, very, very similar to Luck’s. The Dolphins took Culpepper over him for fear of him never recovering.