The Cousins Plan

[Freddie's Dead]

1. Captain Kirk

2. Alex Smith

3. Draft

 

 

[Like A Mofo]

I like Kirk Cousins as a QB, but the issue is the $ and he is 29: The Bills still need some work to be a MAJOR contender and by that time he would be 32-33 and the decline might begin.

 

Not against this ideally totally though.

 

My crazy thought on where Cousins, if I were him, should consider: The Minnesota Vikings clear out their QB stable (lets Keenum and Bradford walk, and keep Teddy or deal him) and bring in Cousins on a roster fit to win right now in 2018.

Edited January 30, 2018 by Like A Mofo

[Guest K-GunJimKelly12]

50 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

Cousins will at least be tagged by Wa so we will have to give up some picks no matter what..

The Skins are going to Pay $34 million, $7 million more than the second highest QB in the league for a QB they seem to not want?  A few months ago I would have agreed with you but I don't think they are going to take the risk.  I would bet they are just going to let him walk.

[thebandit27]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I am firmly in Team Trade Up and I actually believe the Bills will.  

 

EDIT: I don't hate the Cousins plan and I do see the advantages but I just feel like he is going to get an astronomical sum for a QB of his standard and he pretty much fixes you into building through the draft around him. The Bills may have cap space going into 2019 but they will hopefully also be starting to think at that stage about signing a young shutdown corner long term (Tre) and a young franchise left tackle long term (Dion).  So while you have some cap space for short term FA deals in 2019 and 2020 you don't have room to tie yourself into big FAs on 4 or 5 year deals.  I think if you find your Quarterback in the draft you have a little more flexibility as to how you build the team around him.  

 

I'm okay with any plan that results in bringing in a potential long-term solution to the game's most important position.

 

My opinion is that what happens with Cousins is going to dictate what occurs in the top-6 of the draft.

 

For example, if Cousins either re-signs in Washington or signs with Arizona, then you're probably looking at as many as 4 QBs in the top 6.

 

On the other hand, if Cousins were to sign with, say, Denver, then the Giants have the pick that shapes the top-6.  If they take a QB, well, then that's still most likely going to be 3 QBs in the top 6.  If, however, they pass on a QB for, say, Barkley, then you're looking at a QB at 1 and then no chance of a QB until 6, which softens the leverage of the teams looking to trade down.

[Guest K-GunJimKelly12]

13 minutes ago, Like A Mofo said:

I like Kirk Cousins as a QB, but the issue is the $ and he is 29: The Bills still need some work to be a MAJOR contender and by that time he would be 32-33 and the decline might begin.

 

Not against this ideally totally though.

 

My crazy thought on where Cousins, if I were him, should consider: The Minnesota Vikings clear out their QB stable (lets Keenum and Bradford walk, and keep Teddy or deal him) and bring in Cousins on a roster fit to win right now in 2018.

QB's seem to be like goalies and hit their prime a little later than other positions.  There is a fine balance between when skills start deteriorating and the knowledge and instincts for the game solidify.  I would be confident that if we did sign Cousins, he would get 4-5 years of him playing at the level he is currently playing at.

 

[JohnBonhamRocks]

I am team trade up. 

 

However, the thing I like about throwing money at Cousins is that it allows us to fill out the rest of our roster with our plethora of picks and draft a QB or 2 this year. And next year. And the next year. Until you have a guy that is better than Cousins. Because Cousins is not or at least shoudl not be our goal. 

[ddaryl]

14 minutes ago, K-GunJimKelly12 said:

The Skins are going to Pay $34 million, $7 million more than the second highest QB in the league for a QB they seem to not want?  A few months ago I would have agreed with you but I don't think they are going to take the risk.  I would bet they are just going to let him walk.

 

 

With the possible suitors and QB desperate teams out there they won't let him walk. Cousins is the surest QB to be had this year. $34 million for 1 more year with no cap hit if he walks next year means Washngton IMO will hold onto him with the transitiion tag or work out a sign and trade deal.

 

No way they let Kirk just walk.. Thats a very useable asset whether they keep him trade him or transitions him

[aristocrat]

to get him the skins would have to transition tag him and the bills would have to send a crazy deal to him...6 year 150 mil all guaranteed.  then you draft well and win.  it's funny. people look at the pats and earlier this year say they won't win it all because their defense was getting shredded. yet, they don't want to sign cousins cause he can't do it all and win by himself.  You give him a good defense and you will win a lot of games. 

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

Cousins is going to cost an astronomical amount of money. He is going to blow away the Andrew Luck deal. Would I be energized if we somehow signed him, hell yes. In the end I don't think Cousins will choose Buffalo if their is a bidding war between 3 teams. 

 

I think Cousins and AJ McCarron will both have similar seasons next year statistically. My main focus would be getting one of these guys.

[BuffaloRebound]

Drafting where we're drafting, we'd be foolish not to go after Cousins.  There's 4 teams in top 6 of draft who absolutely need a QB.  The cost to trade up will be more exhorbitant than $27m per year for Cousins versus $20m for a Tyrod type starter.  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, ddaryl said:

 

 

With the possible suitors and QB desperate teams out there they won't let him walk. Cousins is the surest QB to be had this year. $34 million for 1 more year with no cap hit if he walks next year means Washngton IMO will hold onto him with the transitiion tag or work out a sign and trade deal.

 

No way they let Kirk just walk.. Thats a very useable asset whether they keep him trade him or transitions him

 

Transition tag doesn't provide any compensation - and its 28 million vs 33 million.  A bunch of teams have a TON of cap and could front load a deal that would literally be impossible for washington to match without gutting their already gutted roster.  

[Bob Chandler's Hands]

Let's not lose focus of what's most important here.

If we sign Cousins we completely screw up our Comp picks. 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I am firmly in Team Trade Up and I actually believe the Bills will.  

 

EDIT: I don't hate the Cousins plan and I do see the advantages but I just feel like he is going to get an astronomical sum for a QB of his standard and he pretty much fixes you into building through the draft around him. The Bills may have cap space going into 2019 but they will hopefully also be starting to think at that stage about signing a young shutdown corner long term (Tre) and a young franchise left tackle long term (Dion).  So while you have some cap space for short term FA deals in 2019 and 2020 you don't have room to tie yourself into big FAs on 4 or 5 year deals.  I think if you find your Quarterback in the draft you have a little more flexibility as to how you build the team around him.  

 

If there's someone there they feel "Oh yeah.  He's the one.  He's an 80% guy"  they may try.  But it's far from a sure thing that they'll be able to, if so.

Almost all of the top players this year have, as far as I can see, some question mark to their games.

 

Of all the guys, the one that I feel best about (assuming in interviews, he comes across as loving the game and really having the "want to" factor) is Rosen, and a nice smart chap here just scared us about his "bust" potential based upon rush yards from scrimmage for college QB.

 

The cap space issue, IMO, is overblown.  I think the issue to ponder is that trading up has a large (but less obvious) salary cap impact.  Let's say for the sake of argument, trading up costs us 3 first round picks and 2 seconds.   That's 5 quality players expected to be contributors that we can't draft and reimburse at a low rate while we evaluate them.  Let's say 3 become high-quality starters, 1 becomes a contributer, and 1 busts.  Since you didn't draft them,  you need to pay 3 quality free agents and 1 second-tier guy to replace them. 

Look for 2 quality DLmen - not the top guys, go back about 10 on the salary lists - and the very best ILB you can grab.  Heyward, Jordan types and someone as close to Luke Kuechly as you can sign, and a quality WR. 

 

Don't you think you've spent $36M in salary cap or more with those 4 acquisitions?  Now, assuming we pick in a similar or lower place next year, the CBA would put the cap hit at about $2M each for each 1st round rookie and $1M for each 2nd round rookie.  Total cap for draftees at the position of $8M

 

The difference is $27M - exactly the cap hit of a top QB such as Stafford.  And that's not taking into account the higher salary you pay Mr Top of the 1st Round rookie.

 

Back of the envelope bottom line: full court press for Cousins vs trade up for Mr Right is probably closer to a salary cap wash than you think for a team with lots of holes that wants to compete.

 

And we've seen for years the effect of paying top salaries to DL, DB, OL - "everyone but QB" as well as the effect of what I'll call "serial QB monogamy" (pick a guy who might have potential to develop into Mr Right, focus on him for 3 years, divorce him, pick again).

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

4 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

 

 

With the possible suitors and QB desperate teams out there they won't let him walk. Cousins is the surest QB to be had this year. $34 million for 1 more year with no cap hit if he walks next year means Washngton IMO will hold onto him with the transitiion tag or work out a sign and trade deal.

 

No way they let Kirk just walk.. Thats a very useable asset whether they keep him trade him or transitions him

 

The franchise tag costs them 33 million of their 52 in projected cap space.... they don't have any talent at WR, or at RB.  And their defense sucks.   

 

When does Washington just look at it and say you're just spinning your wheels if you sign this guy?

[ddaryl]

3 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

Transition tag doesn't provide any compensation - and its 28 million vs 33 million.  A bunch of teams have a TON of cap and could front load a deal that would literally be impossible for washington to match without gutting their already gutted roster.  

 

 

 

 

My bad they will use the franchise tag not the transition tag... There is no way Washington lets Cousins just walk.. IMO

 

 

Edited January 30, 2018 by ddaryl

[SouthNYfan]

2 hours ago, DefenseWins said:

I'm going to ask this question again... What makes any of you believe that Cousins would want to sign with Buffalo vs Denver, Ariz, Wash, NYJ etc... He can have his choice of any of these cities assuming he doesn't want Clev which has the most $$$ to pay him whatever he wants...

 

I said this on numerous other threads.

We have delusional people who think we are honestly a preferred destination over az or Denver.

 

I don't think he goes to nyj because I'm not sure he likes the big city life.

He wants to be out west from everything I've read prior.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

4 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

 

 

 

 

My bad they will use the franchise tag not the transition tag... There is no way Washington lets Cousins just walk..

 

Right - and they will probably hover around 7-9 again.  They'll have no cap space and more holes than last year.  At least if you trade cousins, you likely bottom out and get a shot at a top QB in 2019.  

 

The Redskins are sort of in that bradford/Rams situation - they have a pretty good QB, whos overpaid... and the rest of the team is crap and needs to be blown up.

Edited January 30, 2018 by dneveu

[aristocrat]

4 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

I said this on numerous other threads.

We have delusional people who think we are honestly a preferred destination over az or Denver.

 

I don't think he goes to nyj because I'm not sure he likes the big city life.

He wants to be out west from everything I've read prior.

 

denver is high enough to get a rookie as are the jets and maybe even the skins. they could use the cap space to sign other guys. we're just having fun with it no need to trash the city. 

[thebandit27]

3 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

I said this on numerous other threads.

We have delusional people who think we are honestly a preferred destination over az or Denver.

 

I don't think he goes to nyj because I'm not sure he likes the big city life.

He wants to be out west from everything I've read prior.

 

I don't think anyone thinks that the city of Buffalo is a preferred destination over areas like Arizona or Denver.

 

It is silly, however, to rule out a big FA signing in Buffalo because "it's Buffalo".  Mario Williams signed the richest defensive player contract in history to come here when he had many other suitors, so it's not like it's unheard of for good players to sign here.

 

The biggest thing that FAs look for is comfort level, both on and off the field.  Why would a guy sign here?  Well, he'd have to like the coach and front office, he'd have to think the team was heading in the right direction, he might have tight relationships with other players already here, and he might like that Buffalo has a relatively low cost of living.  Combine those factors with a willingness to pay market value, and you can certainly be in the conversation.

 

Now, do I think Cousins will sign here?  Probably not.  I don't think they'll give him the $27-28M AAV he's looking for, and I think he's more likely to go to a place like Denver or Arizona that have a more recent history of winning.

[ddaryl]

Just now, dneveu said:

 

Right - and they will probably hover around 7-9 again.

 

 

OK then they go 7-9 .. Washngton is not giving up on a very functional underrated QB for nothing... I just don't see that. 15 + teams in this league would look at Cousins as an upgrade IMO. Cousins is a top 10 QB in this league or at least has been a consistent top 10 the last 3 seasons.

 

Where is Washington going ot find a consistent top 10 QB to replace him