My Case For: Lamar Jackson

[Johnny Hammersticks]

1 minute ago, ndirish1978 said:

 

We have the same top 5, though I'd probably switch Allen and Mayfield. I am in the "trade everything to move up and get Darnold or Rosen camp, so we're probably at odds there. Can you recall the last time picking the fifth best QB in the class worked out? How many drafts provide us with more than 2 starting quality QBs?

 

I suppose I'm not in the camp that feels that any of the '18 QB's are worth mortgaging the farm for.  I don't think any of them are at that level, although I think Rosen is a day 1 starter.  I'd rather use our draft picks to bolster other positions (LB, WR, OL, CB, DL), bring in a veteran QB (e.g., Alex Smith), and draft a QB in the first or second round.  I do also like Mike White out of WKU as a potential day 2 pick.

[SouthNYfan]

28 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

 

We have the same top 5, though I'd probably switch Allen and Mayfield. I am in the "trade everything to move up and get Darnold or Rosen camp, so we're probably at odds there. Can you recall the last time picking the fifth best QB in the class worked out? How many drafts provide us with more than 2 starting quality QBs?

 

Here are the top 5 selected in each round (ill include a later QB if he had been successful)

 

I will leave out 2017 draft (too early to say obviously)

 

2016

 

1 goff

2 wentz

3 lynch

4 hackenberg (2nd round)

5 cody kessler (3rd round)

7 dak prescott (4th round)

 

First 2 are stars, Dak was #7 and book is still out, he had a great rookie season and a meh second season

 

2015

 

1 jameis winston

2 marcus mariota

3 garret grayson (third round)

4 sean mannion (3rd round)

5 bryce petty (4th round)

 

2014

 

1 bortles

2 manziel

3 bridgewater

4 derek carr (2nd)

5 garoppolo (2nd)

9 aj mccarron (5th round, including him because some people seem to be interested, I am not)

 

2013

 

1 ej manuel

2 geno smith (2nd)

3 mike glennon (3rd)

4 matt barkley (4th)

5 ryan nassib (4th)

 

2012

 

1 andrew luck

2 RGIII

3 ryan tannehill

4 brandon weedon

5 osweiler (2nd)

6 russel wilson (3rd round)

7 nick foles (3rd round)

8 kirk cousins (4th round)

 

This was a CRAZY deep draft class for QB’s overall.

RGIII can be debated until death as to what he would have been without the injury

Tannehill is solid, not a star, but I think he’s okay

Brock and weedon are TRASH

Wilson is a star

Cousins is about to cash in big

Foles has had ups and downs, but we can agree he’s solid I think

 

2011

1 cam

2 locker

3 gabbert

4 christian ponder

5 andy dalton (2nd)

6 kaep (2nd)

 

This year had cam, then 3 misfires, then dalton @ 5th selected, and kaep had some success but that got derailed

2010

 

1 sam bradford

2 tebow

3 clausen (2nd)

4 mccoy (2nd)

5 mike kafka (4th)

 

Bradford was a great talent, injuries derailed him as we know. Tebow, well, is tebow. Clausen flopped. Mccoy was injury prone so never really got a shot.

 

2009

 

1 stafford

2 SANCHIZE!! (mark sanchez lol)

3 josh freeman

4 pat white (2nd)

5 stephen mcgee (4th)

 

Interesting. A lot of people thought the jets reached for sanchez, looks like they were right. He had some early career success because his flaws were masked by surrounding talent.

As soon as they let him loose and tried to have him be “the man” he fell apart.

Josh freeman is interesting, had a couple of great seasons sandwiched around a terrible one, then another bad one and he just couldn’t handle it mentally.

2008

 

1 matt ryan

2 joe flacco

3 brian brohm (2nd)

4 chad henne (2nd)

5 kevin o’connell (3rd)

12 matt flynn (7th round, only included b/c he had a little flash parlayed into a couple of tryout gigs, nothing big though)

 

2007

 

1 jamarcus russell

2 brady quinn

3 kevin kolb (2nd)

4 john beck (2nd)

5 drew stanton (2nd)

 

6 TRENT EDWARDS (3rd round)

 

2006

 

1 vince young

2 matt leinart

3 jay cutler

4 kellen clemens (2nd)

5 tarvaris jackson (2nd)

 

2005

 

1 alex smith

2 aaron rodgers

3 jason campbell

4 charlie frye (3rd)

5 andrew walter 93rd)

 

7 kyle orton (4th)

11 derek anderson (6th)

12 matt cassel (7th)

13 ryan fitzpatrick (7th)

 

Orton, anderson, cassel, fitzpatrick all had careers, not very good, but they had them.

I think it’s interesting how sometimes the late round picks hang on as backups, or fringe starters on bad teams, mostly due to

Sitting behind somebody I think and learning, rather than being thrown to the wolves as rookies

 

2004

 

1 eli manning

2 phil rivers

3 big ben

4 jp LOSEMAN (ugh)

5 matt schaub (3rd)

 

Ill stop here, that’s a decent sample size.

That is 13 years of NFL QB drafts listing the top 5 selected, and filling in lower picks that had semi decent/starting jobs (even for a season or 2 as a bad passer, they still were a starter)

 

This says a couple of things:

 

Top picks are not always a sure thing (see: jamarcus, vince young, leinart, and a couple others)

Lower picks (late first, early to mid 2nd) are not always bad either

All QBs are a risk, but the biggest risks seem to be the “reaches” where the top 2-3 are picked early, and a QB desperate team reaches for somebody who shouldn’t have been taken that high.

There are very few “deep” QB drafs, but generally, when there is a consensus of it being a deep draft, they have been correct.

There are very few outside of the top 3 who make it big.

 

I think this year is a LOCK for the top 2, then QBs 3-7 are all risks with good upside.

It’s a very difficult year to gauge, but hopefully we don’t reach too much.

[Thurman#1]

On 1/21/2018 at 7:02 AM, Alphadawg7 said:

For a long time I felt like Baker Mayfield was going to be a Bill next year, long before many were on that train.  Got flamed a lot saying he wouldn't go until the 2nd or 3rd round.  Funny thing happened along the way...Baker shut everyone up and proved he is a lock for the first round barring some incident or injury, and Bills had a winning season and wound up with a much lower draft pick than expected.  Now to get Baker, its going to cost to move up, and probably cost more than Beane would consider spending, especially the way he covets picks and the depth of QB in this draft.  

 

I honestly do not expect a big move up for a QB in this draft because its going to be expensive with all the QB needy teams in the top 12, which is probably the min you need to get to this year to get any of the top 4 guys.  Instead I could see us making a modest move if someone they like slips out of the top 12 or even a small trade up to get a stud defender they might covet like Roquan or something.  So where does that leave the Bills options at QB...well guys like Mason, Falk, and of course Jackson are the obvious ones to look at.  

 

I still strongly feel that making a play for Cousins, if he is available, would be the best move so we can focus the draft picks on other players.  But we dont know if Cousins is available, and there will be stiff competition for his services with better weather to play in than Buffalo, so not sure he would even choose the Bills if he was an option.  

 

So, I started watching a lot of footage of Falk, Mason, and Jackson...and after doing that, I am really coming around to the idea of Lamar Jackson.  We dont need to discuss how special he is with his legs, thats a given.  What I was really surprised to see is how many straight legit tight NFL throws he makes both from the pocket and on the run.  I have loved watching him play, but up until now I had not watched closely at the whole package, and I really feel this kid has by far the highest ceiling of any player in this draft at QB.  The issue is he has a lower floor than some, and its going to come down to developing the kid.  

 

My Plan:  Sign Teddy Bridgewater (or keep Taylor), and draft Lamar Jackson...assuming Kirk Cousins doesn't become a Bill. 

 

Take someone like (in no particular order) Vita Vea, Mike McGlitchey, Roquan Smith (might need to trade up for him), or Rashaan Evans at 21 then take Jackson at 22.  We may even be able to take 2 players at 21 and 22 that aren't a QB, and package a couple of our next picks together to move back up to end of the first or top of 2nd to grab Jackson too.  

 

There are things to like and dislike about most the QB's, but I think waiting on a QB to keep as many picks as we can for other holes and grabbing a guy like Jackson would be pretty exciting.  I know not everyone is going to like this idea, and thats fine.  But I think to fairly asses him, you need to remove Tyrod from your minds and not just label him another TT just because he makes plays with his legs.  

 

Watch this tape...yes anyone can make someone look good on a highlight video, but look at the legit NFL throws, the tight windows, the touch, etc...its there!

 

 

 

 

 

Of course there will be good plays on a highlight film. You said it yourself, but then ignored what you said.

 

He isn't a consistent decision maker in the NFL mold. If he makes it, it will be the result of a lot of development in areas that are the hardest for QBs to develop in.

 

No thanks, for me. He's like a better Cardale Jones. Both physically terrific, both with holes in the decision-making process and with decent but not NFL accuracy. 

[OldTimer1960]

57 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

 

Except it's not a bad comparison. You're talking about 2 guys with elite physical skills who can't be consistently good at passing the ball. I understand you'd get tired of it if you're a fan, but this guy is far from a finished product as a passer. I'd rather have someone with a more limited physical skill set who completes >65% of his passes consistently. The guy's completion percentages in college are 54, 56, 60 and don't let that 60 fool you, he completed more passes for fewer yards his last year, which means we're looking at more short-range passes. 

I'd rather have a really mobile guy who completes >65% of his passes.  Why would you ever prefer physical limitations over better physical skills?

 

If the point is that you want a very good pocket passer, then I agree.  I just don't think that mobility means that a guy can't be a good pocket passer.  Now, don't take that to mean that I think that Lamar Jackson is currently a good pocket passer - I'm not sure.  I am sure that he is not a finished product, maybe he can improve his passing, maybe he can't.  I am confident that someone will pick him and hope that he pans out.

[ndirish1978]

4 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I'd rather have a really mobile guy who completes >65% of his passes.  Why would you ever prefer physical limitations over better physical skills?

 

If the point is that you want a very good pocket passer, then I agree.  I just don't think that mobility means that a guy can't be a good pocket passer.  Now, don't take that to mean that I think that Lamar Jackson is currently a good pocket passer - I'm not sure.  I am sure that he is not a finished product, maybe he can improve his passing, maybe he can't.  I am confident that someone will pick him and hope that he pans out.

 

Yeah sure in a perfect work I'd like the QB with ALL the skills, but those are ridiculously rare. I want a QB who can get the ball to the skills players with consistent accuracy, that is the point of the position. I'd rather have a QB who is capable of moving around in the pocket and distributing the ball reliably than a guy with 4.4 speed that sails his passes or dumps them at the feet of a wide open receiver. If forced to choose between mobility and passing accuracy, you choose passing accuracy all day. 

Edited January 22, 2018 by ndirish1978

[OldTimer1960]

23 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Here are the top 5 selected in each round (ill include a later QB if he had been successful)

 

I will leave out 2017 draft (too early to say obviously)

 

2016

 

1 goff

2 wentz

3 lynch

4 hackenberg (2nd round)

5 cody kessler (3rd round)

7 dak prescott (4th round)

 

First 2 are stars, Dak was #7 and book is still out, he had a great rookie season and a meh second season

 

2015

 

1 jameis winston

2 marcus mariota

3 garret grayson (third round)

4 sean mannion (3rd round)

5 bryce petty (4th round)

 

2014

 

1 bortles

2 manziel

3 bridgewater

4 derek carr (2nd)

5 garoppolo (2nd)

9 aj mccarron (5th round, including him because some people seem to be interested, I am not)

 

2013

 

1 ej manuel

2 geno smith (2nd)

3 mike glennon (3rd)

4 matt barkley (4th)

5 ryan nassib (4th)

 

2012

 

1 andrew luck

2 RGIII

3 ryan tannehill

4 brandon weedon

5 osweiler (2nd)

6 russel wilson (3rd round)

7 nick foles (3rd round)

8 kirk cousins (4th round)

 

This was a CRAZY deep draft class for QB’s overall.

RGIII can be debated until death as to what he would have been without the injury

Tannehill is solid, not a star, but I think he’s okay

Brock and weedon are TRASH

Wilson is a star

Cousins is about to cash in big

Foles has had ups and downs, but we can agree he’s solid I think

 

2011

1 cam

2 locker

3 gabbert

4 christian ponder

5 andy dalton (2nd)

6 kaep (2nd)

 

This year had cam, then 3 misfires, then dalton @ 5th selected, and kaep had some success but that got derailed

2010

 

1 sam bradford

2 tebow

3 clausen (2nd)

4 mccoy (2nd)

5 mike kafka (4th)

 

Bradford was a great talent, injuries derailed him as we know. Tebow, well, is tebow. Clausen flopped. Mccoy was injury prone so never really got a shot.

 

2009

 

1 stafford

2 SANCHIZE!! (mark sanchez lol)

3 josh freeman

4 pat white (2nd)

5 stephen mcgee (4th)

 

Interesting. A lot of people thought the jets reached for sanchez, looks like they were right. He had some early career success because his flaws were masked by surrounding talent.

As soon as they let him loose and tried to have him be “the man” he fell apart.

Josh freeman is interesting, had a couple of great seasons sandwiched around a terrible one, then another bad one and he just couldn’t handle it mentally.

2008

 

1 matt ryan

2 joe flacco

3 brian brohm (2nd)

4 chad henne (2nd)

5 kevin o’connell (3rd)

12 matt flynn (7th round, only included b/c he had a little flash parlayed into a couple of tryout gigs, nothing big though)

 

2007

 

1 jamarcus russell

2 brady quinn

3 kevin kolb (2nd)

4 john beck (2nd)

5 drew stanton (2nd)

 

6 TRENT EDWARDS (3rd round)

 

2006

 

1 vince young

2 matt leinart

3 jay cutler

4 kellen clemens (2nd)

5 tarvaris jackson (2nd)

 

2005

 

1 alex smith

2 aaron rodgers

3 jason campbell

4 charlie frye (3rd)

5 andrew walter 93rd)

 

7 kyle orton (4th)

11 derek anderson (6th)

12 matt cassel (7th)

13 ryan fitzpatrick (7th)

 

Orton, anderson, cassel, fitzpatrick all had careers, not very good, but they had them.

I think it’s interesting how sometimes the late round picks hang on as backups, or fringe starters on bad teams, mostly due to

Sitting behind somebody I think and learning, rather than being thrown to the wolves as rookies

 

2004

 

1 eli manning

2 phil rivers

3 big ben

4 jp LOSEMAN (ugh)

5 matt schaub (3rd)

 

Ill stop here, that’s a decent sample size.

That is 13 years of NFL QB drafts listing the top 5 selected, and filling in lower picks that had semi decent/starting jobs (even for a season or 2 as a bad passer, they still were a starter)

 

This says a couple of things:

 

Top picks are not always a sure thing (see: jamarcus, vince young, leinart, and a couple others)

Lower picks (late first, early to mid 2nd) are not always bad either

All QBs are a risk, but the biggest risks seem to be the “reaches” where the top 2-3 are picked early, and a QB desperate team reaches for somebody who shouldn’t have been taken that high.

There are very few “deep” QB drafs, but generally, when there is a consensus of it being a deep draft, they have been correct.

There are very few outside of the top 3 who make it big.

 

I think this year is a LOCK for the top 2, then QBs 3-7 are all risks with good upside.

It’s a very difficult year to gauge, but hopefully we don’t reach too much.

Nice job. 

 

I agree.  Really good NFL starting QBs are very hard to find.  In several drafts there are zero guys that became NFL starters.  I think that none of these QBs are sure things, but I do think that Rosen, Darnold and Mayfield have a pretty good chance to be successful.  I think Allen, Jackson and Rudolph are 50-50 kinds of guys for success.

[PIZ]

Deon Sanders thinks he will be a star.

 

http://www.ajc.com/sports/college/deion-sanders-lamar-jackson-best-college-and-others-can-compare/Wt2Q2FMYXdXiCHaeyQoj4L/

[OldTimer1960]

2 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

 

Yeah sure in a perfect work I'd like the QB with ALL the skills, but those are ridiculously rare. I want a QB who can get the ball to the skills players with consistent accuracy, that is the point of the position. I'd rather have a QB who is capable of moving around in the pocket and distributing the ball reliably than a guy with 4.4 speed that sails his passes or dumps them at the feet of a wide open receiver. If forced to choose between mobility and passing accuracy, you choose passing accuracy all day. 

No argument there.  I just think that tying in athleticism with ability to read the defense and deliver accurately and on time muddies the water some.  So, I'd rather have someone like Andy Dalton than Akili Smith.

[LeGOATski]

1 hour ago, ndirish1978 said:

 

We have the same top 5, though I'd probably switch Allen and Mayfield. I am in the "trade everything to move up and get Darnold or Rosen camp, so we're probably at odds there. Can you recall the last time picking the fifth best QB in the class worked out? How many drafts provide us with more than 2 starting quality QBs?

2012, Wilson.

 

That was easy ?

40 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Here are the top 5 selected in each round (ill include a later QB if he had been successful)

....

Oh, good post. I forgot about Garoppolo. He seems like he'll be successful.

[SouthNYfan]

6 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

2012, Wilson.

 

That was easy ?

Oh, good post. I forgot about Garoppolo. He seems like he'll be successful.

 

Thanks dude

People will interpret that list differently depending on their own opinion

 

I just listed facts of the top5 QBs selected:)

[John from Riverside]

17 hours ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

Film Room Junkie? I like that sound of that!!

From what I have seen teaching accuracy takes longer than you have i a career. Not one time have I ever seen anyone be taught how to throw accurately by an NFL staff.

 

To me that claim is just a QB coach saying yes, because if he says no he can't, you get another QB coach who is willing to lie.

 

Minor improvements yes. Big improvement to accuracy I say again, I never saw it yet.

I agree with this....so the question becomes....just how bad is his accuracy.

 

I dont want another Tyrod Taylor as it has been shown that does not work....i also done want too prematurely label a incoming college qb a "athlete that plays QB" too soon if there are attributes to their game that shows the ability to adapt to the NFL.

 

There are actually facets to TT's game that are great for a NFL QB....if the guy would throw wr's open and be able to work from the pocket when run is taken away from him we would not even be looking for a new qb

 

 

[BadLandsMeanie]

6 minutes ago, John from Hemet said:

I agree with this....so the question becomes....just how bad is his accuracy.

 

I dont want another Tyrod Taylor as it has been shown that does not work....i also done want too prematurely label a incoming college qb a "athlete that plays QB" too soon if there are attributes to their game that shows the ability to adapt to the NFL.

 

There are actually facets to TT's game that are great for a NFL QB....if the guy would throw wr's open and be able to work from the pocket when run is taken away from him we would not even be looking for a new qb

 

 

I agree with you all round with two mentions.

 

I think TT also looks real calm and stable and he just has a presence when the play is unfolding. That was what made think he could make the cut.

 

But the two things that you mention that he cannot do, throw receivers open and work from the pocket, those are the main job description. So I just differ on the emphasis there.

 

In my own mind, I think Tyrod Taylor is a businessman first and foremost. He prospects his statistics. He looks good on paper. And he has made, and will make much more money than he would have if he went for broke and exposed his weaknesses.

 

He takes the sack rather than the incompletion for example. There is no statistic for throwing the ball 10 yards short of the first down on 3rd and 15 for another example. So instead of a risky throw late in game when you really should go for it, he throws the 5 yarder and we punt. That kind of stuff. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

2007 was SO bad for QB.

SO bad.

 

[BillsfanAZ]

I like his athletic ability and his arm. The problem I see just from watching the highlight video is that most times he isnt reading the field. He seems to be looking for one read or staring where he wants to go with the ball. I dont know anything about their offense but it didnt seem like he was scanning the field much. He may be a good QB in the NFL but I dont think he is worth moving up for. 

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Of course there will be good plays on a highlight film. You said it yourself, but then ignored what you said.

 

He isn't a consistent decision maker in the NFL mold. If he makes it, it will be the result of a lot of development in areas that are the hardest for QBs to develop in.

 

No thanks, for me. He's like a better Cardale Jones. Both physically terrific, both with holes in the decision-making process and with decent but not NFL accuracy. 

 

Yeah, I get a highlight video isnt going to show the negatives, but what I was referencing was all the legit NFL throws I saw him make using the whole field and the touch he showed on fades and dropping balls in the right spot to hit the WR in full stride.  

 

He is a guy whose combine and workouts will be critical to his true projection and draft status.  His WR group this year was terrible too, so have to keep that in mind as well.  

 

We will see...right now, I feel a lot more intrigued by him then I did before I started watching film on the guys we have the highest probability of getting (Mason, Falk, and Jackson) as I dont think Beane will pay the high cost to get one of the other 4 projected to come off board first.

[Solomon Grundy]

 

Great interview 

 

 

[TC in St. Louis]

Since we have professional scouts and a smart staff, I'll assume they make the right choices.  We have plenty of picks to use, and a lot of cap space for free agents.

 

By the way, I noticed that Star Letouislieisli the DT from Carolina, is a free agent.  I'm sure they'll look at him because they look at every Panther.