We Don't NEED Shady to Win - Look at the Stats

[TheElectricCompany]

Anything could happen, but we're much more competitive with a healthy #25 in our lineup.

He's got a bad ankle. For a RB that makes his money based on his elusiveness and cuts, that's pretty unfavorable. 

I'm assuming Shady is either inactive or ineffective. We win because we turn Bortles back into a pumpkin or Tyrod makes some big plays with his feet. 

 

[DC Greg]

5 minutes ago, jaybee said:

We may be OK.  Their D probaby wont stack the box without Shady in there . This opens up some other opportunities, TT draws, J. Webb plays, TE screens and such.  We're going to be OK.

 

Agreed. Not having Shady hurts, but it doesn't kill our chances. Murphy obviously doesn't have McCoy level big play ability, but he looked serviceable in there. Tyrod is going to have to have an above average game to win and would have had to even with Shady healthy.

 

If the sprain is pretty bad, I'd almost rather they shut him down completely for the week. If it's a bad sprain, he'll probably just get a couple plays in before he's hobbled completely, and then the clock on recovery is reset. If we make it past the Jags, I'd rather have a chance at a more healed Shady back for a potential matchup with the Pats.

Edited January 2, 2018 by DC Greg

[Bangarang]

We need him. Don’t be foolish. 

[BillsFan130]

27 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

We dont hmmm

 

this team is a -57 point differential playoff team. 

 

YES THEY DO NEED THEIR BEST PLAYER 

Judging by your posts, I always believed that you thought Tyrod was their best player

[The Frankish Reich]

40 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Shady had 287 carries.

The back up RB's combined for roughly 110 carries.  

Do you think that if any of our back up carried the load, they would still average 4.0 yards a carry?

Well ....

... Shady missed Game 8 last year vs. Pats. Gillislie ran 12 times for 85 yards.  He only got 5 carries the following week (Bengals), and TD Mike ran it 14 times for 72 yards. Again, I am not claiming that the offense is "just as good" without Shady! But they have demonstrated an uncanny ability to run the ball without him.

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said:

First: this is not a Lesean McCoy bashing post!*

 

Rushing stats, 2015-17 (McCoy's 3 seasons with the Bills):

 

McCoy: 724 rushes, 3300 yards. That's 4.56 yards per carry.

Every other RB/FB combined (this does not include Tyrod, WR runs, etc): 420 rushes, 1930 yards.  4.60 yards per carry.

 

Obviously, McCoy brings a lot more than running. I think he'll be missed more in the passing game than in the running game. But after 3 seasons, it's obvious that there's more to the Bills running game than just a great back making great plays. You hear it all the time, so often that it's now an NFL cliche: the key to running the ball effectively is, first, committing to running the ball. That's the Bills. The O line is built around guys who are generally better run blockers than pass blockers. We play fullbacks as lead blockers (Felton/DiMarco) more than most teams. Tyrod opens up the running game by being an effective runner himself. There's many reasons, but 3 seasons of being equally effective in the running game with McCoy out as with McCoy in don't lie.  We can run the ball, and that's with such luminaries as Karlos Williams (obviously talented before he smoked/ate himself out of the NFL), Mike Gillislie (in retrospect, a limited talent), Travaris Cadet (imagine Shady if we were 80% as good at everything he does, including catching the ball) and, last Sunday, Mike Tolbert (he does have his value! Just not as much as McD thinks) and a guy signed off the street in Marcus Murphy.  And it's not as if Shady has never been shut down completely either. In fact, Miami seems to have his number.

 

*I love McCoy. He's a joy to watch. But running backs are pretty easily replaceable in today's NFL. See the proof above. This isn't like losing a starting QB, or even losing an elite WR.

 

A lot of those stats have to do with situational football.  When the backup RB is in the game in a passing situation and gets the ball, there's a good chance the D isn't focused on stopping the run.   

 

Just watch Shady play.  He'll often get yards that another back wouldn't have gotten given the same opportunity.  

 

Defenses scheme for Shady.  They have to account for him on every play.  We  become a much simpler offense to stop when Shady's not suited up.  

[The Frankish Reich]

1 minute ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

A lot of those stats have to do with situational football.  When the backup RB is in the game in a passing situation and gets the ball, there's a good chance the D isn't focused on stopping the run.   

 

Just watch Shady play.  He'll often get yards that another back wouldn't have gotten given the same opportunity.  

 

Defenses scheme for Shady.  They have to account for him on every play.  We  become a much simpler offense to stop when Shady's not suited up.  

All correct. But you guys are missing my point. If you asked me "rank the offensive players we can least afford to lose," my answer would be:

1. Tyrod 

.

.

. 

[huge gap]

2. Shady

.

[small gap]

3.  Clay

 

It would be very unfortunate if Shady can't play, or can't play effectively. It would not be a disaster.  Jacksonville is not a better team than the Bills. They are roughly equal. Losing Shady probably makes them a tick better than the Bills, and they're at home. But it doesn't move the needle as much as people seem to think.

[Bray Wyatt]

Maybe not having shady will stop us from getting in 2nd and long a lot, i believe they said in the miami game he lead the league or something in rushes for loss

[racketmaster]

The Bills are 3-2 in games where McCoy has not played. Now most of those games were in 2015 where we had Gillislee and K. Williams, but all is not lost if McCoy does not play. Murphy would have to be the primary back and Tolbert would have to play his best football (similar to last week in Miami). Obviously, McCoy would be a huge loss and the offense might have to change things up a little bit (maybe zone reads, empty backfields etc.) Taylor will have to play his best football regardless. 

[The Frankish Reich]

45 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

The Bills are 3-2 in games where McCoy has not played. Now most of those games were in 2015 where we had Gillislee and K. Williams, but all is not lost if McCoy does not play. Murphy would have to be the primary back and Tolbert would have to play his best football (similar to last week in Miami). Obviously, McCoy would be a huge loss and the offense might have to change things up a little bit (maybe zone reads, empty backfields etc.) Taylor will have to play his best football regardless. 

Exactly.  Sometimes there's a benefit to having to think outside the box. And Shady or no Shady, I don't believe the Bills will get anything much going in the running game. That's mostly because Marrone will play it to stop the run; Jacksonville wasn't all that great against the run - 21st in rushing yards against, 23rd in YPC allowed (half of that w/o Dareus of course, one big reason they acquired him). They did have the best passing defense in YPG against, but remember, they played the Tom Savage/TJ Yates Texans twice, the Jacoby Brissette Colts twice, the Browns, the Drew Stanton Cards ... overall, the idea that the Jags have an elite defense is simply not supported by facts. It's a very good defense, not anything special.

[BuffaloBillyG]

We may not "need" McCoy to win but if you're trying to say we can plug about anyone into his spot and get close to the same result you are delusional.

 

What your stats don't have factored in is his receiving ability. What everyone else is able to do, how they face less pressure when he is out there. His experience, leadership. Place a "stat" on that. How about being a true home run threat...I don't have a "stat" handy...but I doubt we see Tolbert bounce to the outside and ripoff a 60 yard run. Just the ability to have that on the field is a game changer. 

[John from Riverside]

2 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

We dont hmmm

 

this team is a -57 point differential playoff team. 

 

YES THEY DO NEED THEIR BEST PLAYER 

Yeah I am with Bobby here

 

The offense is really centered around Shady......if he is not on the field teams will play us differently.

[Rob's House]

This is an interesting thread. OP makes a case for optimism and is summarily attacked by those who will have none of it.

 

Does it make you feel better to piss and moan about something that can't be changed?

[The Frankish Reich]

5 minutes ago, KelsaysLunchbox said:

We may not "need" McCoy to win but if you're trying to say we can plug about anyone into his spot and get close to the same result you are delusional.

 

What your stats don't have factored in is his receiving ability. What everyone else is able to do, how they face less pressure when he is out there. His experience, leadership. Place a "stat" on that. How about being a true home run threat...I don't have a "stat" handy...but I doubt we see Tolbert bounce to the outside and ripoff a 60 yard run. Just the ability to have that on the field is a game changer. 

Not what I said. I specifically said losing him hurts most in the passing game. But it's not as if Shady hasn't disappeared as a factor in a number of games over his 3 year Bills career. Just check those Miami box scores ...

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, Mrbojanglezs said:

Murphy looked decent, and he looked good as a pass catcher. But not having McCoy is killer because Tyrod does not win games with his arm.

If you look at film of Murphy, it's his pass catching ability which Dennison should highlight on the outside. Stay away from A gap.

[John from Riverside]

3 minutes ago, Rob's House said:

This is an interesting thread. OP makes a case for optimism and is summarily attacked by those who will have none of it.

 

Does it make you feel better to piss and moan about something that can't be changed?

I dont know if it is piss and moan as much as some fans have gotten over the euphoria of actually making the playoffs and are focusing on how we can win the next game.

Nothing wrong with that imo.   I am sure the bills are well aware of how important Shady was and probably do not want Tolbert taking the load of the carries.

 

One thing that is not being talked about......Kelvin Benjamin....I wonder if his health is improving by the week....because this would be a great weak to have a huge showing from him, clay, and Deonte (who we should already be locking up to a extension if you ask me)

[BuffaloBillyG]

6 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Not what I said. I specifically said losing him hurts most in the passing game. But it's not as if Shady hasn't disappeared as a factor in a number of games over his 3 year Bills career. Just check those Miami box scores ...

Again, check box scores all you want...while they were busy stopping Shady...who was stepping up? Oh, yea the much maligned Tyrod Taylor. Just having him on the field opens so much up that a box score just won't tell ya.

 

Also yes, this last game was a low production game...but as you said...check the Miami box score. 96 yards from scrimmage and 2 TDs in the first meeting. There is no one else on this team that can produce in a duel threat role like that. 

 

When you say he has disappeared over stretches...again...when he disappears his impact on the ACTUAL game (not box score) is felt. 

[Rob's House]

11 minutes ago, KelsaysLunchbox said:

Again, check box scores all you want...while they were busy stopping Shady...who was stepping up? Oh, yea the much maligned Tyrod Taylor. Just having him on the field opens so much up that a box score just won't tell ya.

 

Also yes, this last game was a low production game...but as you said...check the Miami box score. 96 yards from scrimmage and 2 TDs in the first meeting. There is no one else on this team that can produce in a duel threat role like that. 

 

When you say he has disappeared over stretches...again...when he disappears his impact on the ACTUAL game (not box score) is felt. 

I don't know about that. I hear Kyle Williams is a pretty good shot.

[MAJBobby]

1 hour ago, Rob's House said:

This is an interesting thread. OP makes a case for optimism and is summarily attacked by those who will have none of it.

 

Does it make you feel better to piss and moan about something that can't be changed?

 

Optimisim. Is one thing but this is a horrible argument. And yes i am going to watch the game and i want the best possible chance for a Bills win. 

 

That goes away without Shady. Sorry those are verifiable facts 

[2003Contenders]

You are missing the obvious -- which is not necessarily backed up by statistically comparing Shady's production to that of the other RBs on the team: when Shady is on the field he becomes the focal point of the defense. That is not true when the other RBs take the field. Taking Shady off the field, may lead to reasonable production for the fill-in backs, since they do not draw as much attention from the opposing defenders -- but it also means that the passing game will be hindered more with greater focus on stopping Tyrod and the passing game.

 

Exhibit A: The Cowboys were without Zeke E.'s services for 6 weeks. Idiot pundits pointed out that Alfred Morris had similar production to Zeke in Zeke's absence. But guess what? Defenses were not as worried about stopping Morris as they were Zeke, so Morris saw fewer stacked boxes, and opposing defenses were better able to better defend against the pass. So, while the running game kept pace, it was Dak Prescott and the passing game that suffered immeasurably.