Gutless Call to Punt

[SWATeam]

1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

 

 

You season is Over with a Loss or Tie, you need 1 yard, you are on your ST player playing QB and NO WRs to speak of.  So you Punt it, oooo and call a time out before doing it.

 

Geez, If i had my 3rd string ST playing emergency QB in, maybe i'd feel better about winning with my D by pinning they back deep...

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

You want the ONLY Variables that matter.

 

You season is Over with a Loss or Tie, you need 1 yard, you are on your ST player playing QB and NO WRs to speak of.  So you Punt it, oooo and call a time out before doing it.

 

I get it you LOVE McD but this was and will remain the WRONG decision, you can try to sugar coat it all you want I have seen a lot of that with the Bills over the years.

 

AND IT IS OK to say something the coach did is WRONG even if you like him

 

 

 

Just the facts, its ok so lets do it again next week, Heck Ryan was right so wasn't Marrone.  OOO Same with LA with their late punt, its ok lets keep punting late in games when we don't have the lead and see what the records are

Just the facts?  Give me something factual evidence that conditions yesterday were the same as every other snow game.  

I never said it was okay, I wouldn't have punted.  I'm just pointing out your evidence is really week.

Bobby, I think you think this is your world and anyone who disagrees is unacceptable.  Geezus due lighten up.

[MAJBobby]

2 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

Geez, If i had my 3rd string ST playing emergency QB in, maybe i'd feel better about winning with my D by pinning they back deep...

And yeah how did that work out, ooo yeah that ST player playing QB had to hit a bomb on their and long, ooo yead and still had to drive 65 yards with no TOs

[2003Contenders]

I am amazed at the angst that I see from some posters here.

 

I have to admit that I disagreed with the decision at the time as well. However, in the end, the decision did work out for the team and they came away with a win!

 

Perhaps statistically speaking the decision was not the one that SHOULD have been made (as I said, I disagreed as well) -- but after weighing the options this is the choice that McD and the coaching staff chose. Remember, they took a timeout to discuss it as well. I was certain that when the timeout was called that we would see the punting team come off the field and the offense go back out. However, that is not what happened. Given the extra time to consider, the decision was a calculated one where discussions about the weather conditions, game flow, having an emergency QB behind center, various possible scenarios/outcomes, and what was at stake were all debated.

 

In the end, the ultimate outcome was a favorable one, which means that the decision to punt was not "gutless".

[BillsFan130]

13 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I just went to this Number Fire site.  I can't find a thing about the game yesterday, odds, etc.

 

So direct me to their analysis if you would.  Because without it your answer is meaningless.  And I will bet it does not take into account all the variables.

Here is the scenario and you tell me what is more likely. Odds aside and results aside.

 

1. The Bills need 1 yard to convert the 4th and 1 on the Colts 40. If they get 1 yard, they need another 15-20 yards to kick a 37-42 yard field goal for basically the win. Or even say 25 more yards to make it an easier field goal try.

 

2. The Bills punt. Need to force Indi to punt without them picking up 2 first downs. If they get 2 or more first downs, the game ends in a tie or even a loss if Indi continues to march. And then assuming they stop them, they would start at their own 25-35 with their 3rd string quarterback, with awful weather conditions, and have to go about 50 yards with 2:30 and 0 timeouts...

 

You are actually saying number 2 gave the Bills a better chance to win yesterday?

 

Results aside, and odds aside. Because that was roughly the scenario Mcd was given when wondering if he should punt or go for it.

Edited December 11, 2017 by billsfan11

[zow2]

I gave my take on this in the WGR thread.  but for this specific game McD made the correct call.  No way was Indy driving 70 yards or whatever for a legit FG attempt.  I liked the D's chances of getting a turnover.

If the weather was 50 degrees and sunny it's very possible McD would've gone for it.  You just can't kill him for making the call to punt in this game with those weather conditions.  It worked out.  He was smarter than the talking heads (who are all pissed off that they are wrong

[Billsfan1972]

It was a stupid call, any weather conditions, anytime during the season and probably any score.

 

The fact it was in a tie game in a 10 minute overtime where a win is 100% required and you have your emergency qb in.

 

That Thompson catch was a gift and probably had a 10% chance of success given the elements and yet succeeded.  

 

For once the football gods took pity on the Bills.

[oldmanfan]

16 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

You want the ONLY Variables that matter.

 

You season is Over with a Loss or Tie, you need 1 yard, you are on your ST player playing QB and NO WRs to speak of.  So you Punt it, oooo and call a time out before doing it.

 

I get it you LOVE McD but this was and will remain the WRONG decision, you can try to sugar coat it all you want I have seen a lot of that with the Bills over the years.

 

AND IT IS OK to say something the coach did is WRONG even if you like him

 

 

 

Just the facts, its ok so lets do it again next week, Heck Ryan was right so wasn't Marrone.  OOO Same with LA with their late punt, its ok lets keep punting late in games when we don't have the lead and see what the records are

I asked you to direct me to their site where they have the stats listed so I can review them, because I cannot find them on their site.  That you have refused to do so and resorted to childish insults tells me either that they do not have the data listed, that they have data listed but do not take into account variables such as snow, or that you're just making the whole thing up.

 

Which is it?

 

Oh, and as I said earlier I would have gone for it on fourth down if I had to make the call.Guess it's good I didn't have to.

[cba fan]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

 

Punting on 4^th and 1 was the right decision. 

 

Let me start by saying that I was watching the game at a sports bar.  The room was filled with the audio from another game, so I couldn’t hear the announcers for the Bills game.  Looking at the screen, it was impossible to know where the ball was because all the yard markings were obliterated.  The network only occasionally showed in writing where the ball was.  So when they got to 4^th and 1, I thought punting was a good idea because I would have guessed the Bills hadn’t crossed the 50.

 

If I had known that they were at the Colts 41, I would have said go for it.  And that would have been the wrong decision.  Here’s why:

 

The objective is to make the playoffs.  For the coaches and players, that’s all that matters.  And when you get to this point of the season, it’s almost like you’re already in the playoffs. 

 

The over-riding rule in playoffs is “survive and advance.”  In other words, it doesn’t matter how you survive, it doesn’t matter how ugly or how beautiful or whatever.  Survive.  Giving yourself another game where you have a chance is what you need.   Whether you can win that next game is irrelevant; just getting to the next game is all you want – you’ll worry about how to win that game later. 

 

Survive and advance is where the Bills are now, along with all the other teams in the AFC hovering around .500 and trying to get to the postseason. 

 

And in this period when you’re fighting to get into the playoffs, there is a second important point:  Tie games are closer to wins than to losses.   Why?  Well, 9-6-1 gets you into the playoffs over every 9-7 team, so you don’t have to look to tie-breakers.  8-7-1 gets you in over every 8-8 team, and this is one of those years were 8-8 could actually be enough.  

 

In other words, a tie is not a neutral result.   A tie is a positive result.  Yes, a win is better.  But a tie is more like a win than like a loss.  Stated differently, until you absolutely MUST win, it’s more important not to lose than it is to win.

 

Okay, with that in mind, go back to 4^th and 1 at the Colts 41.   I don’t know the exact probabilities, but looking just at winning or losing, I’d say that going for it on fourth down gave the Bills a 50-50 chance of winning or losing.  Why?   Because the chances of making the first down were around 50-50.  Whichever team had the ball on the next play would have had four minutes left and would have needed to move the ball about 25 yards to try a field goal.  The Bills would have needed 25 to get to the 15 to have a shot at 35-yard field goal into the wind, and the Colts would have need 25 to get to the Bills 35 to try a 50-yard field goal with the wind at their back.  We can argue about the percentages and how far they had to go, etc. but I think I’m in the ball park.

 

So in a two-outcome scenario, going for it is more or less a coin toss.   But it isn’t a two-outcome scenario; it’s three outcomes – win, lose or tie.  It isn’t 50-50; it’s more like 40-40-20. 

 

Given that the Bills are in the playoff hunt, and given that in the hunt ties are more like wins than losses, it’s easy to see why punting was the right call.  If the Bills punt, the chances that either the Bills or the Colts will win the game (if those are the only choices) are probably still 50-50.  The Colts have the ball, which is a plus for them, but they have a long way to go.  The Bills don’t have the ball but they have field position, but they also may run out of time.  

 

But those aren't the only choices; it’s a three outcome scenario.  Although if they punt the chances the Bills will win go down, probably pretty dramatically, the chances that they get a tie go way up.  I’d guess that punting with 4 minutes left reduces the chances of the Bills winning in those conditions to 20%, probably less.  But the chances of tying go UP from 20% to 60%. 

 

Remember, in the playoff hunt, winning is the objective, but not losing is more important than winning.  Going for it on 4^th and 1 the Bills had a 60% chance of not losing.   Punting they had an 80% chance of not losing.  Punting was the right call.

 

Survive and advance. 

 

If anyone thinks the Bills coaches actually thought about any of what you printed here,.........then those fans are dumb enough to be the Bills next headcoach. 

 

Aside from that opinion I have,  what you printed was very well thought out and your % guesses sound resonable, however to delve deeper what you printed has some real relevance but not against the Colts. Colts was a must win gimme game Bills absolutely had to win to stay in the hunt. Just like next week against the Dolphins at home also. And last game @ Dolphins not being a gimme is also in that boat.

 

The game that your post makes complete sense is in two weeks when Bills play @ New England. In that scenario a tie is much better than a loss as that game is a sure loss on paper 99% of the time.

 

Thanks for a very good post overall. I would award you some rep points if allowed.

Edited December 11, 2017 by cba fan
error

[MAJBobby]

2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I asked you to direct me to their site where they have the stats listed so I can review them, because I cannot find them on their site.  That you have refused to do so and resorted to childish insults tells me either that they do not have the data listed, that they have data listed but do not take into account variables such as snow, or that you're just making the whole thing up.

 

Which is it?

 

Oh, and as I said earlier I would have gone for it on fourth down if I had to make the call.Guess it's good I didn't have to.

I have my buddy getting me the numbers as it is premium content....  However I can also and have used ESPN as well which was real time and showed a drop in probability of Win drop on the punt, but again VARIABLES so it doesn't matter what I show you, because you cannot talk bad about coach McD I guess he reached Tyrod status already

[Billsfan1972]

15 minutes ago, billsfan11 said:

Here is the scenario and you tell me what is more likely. Odds aside and results aside.

 

1. The Bills need 1 yard to convert the 4th and 1 on the Colts 40. If they get 1 yard, they need another 15-20 yards to kick a 37-42 yard field goal for basically the win. Or even say 25 more yards to make it an easier field goal try.

 

2. The Bills punt. Need to force Indi to punt without them picking up 2 first downs. If they get 2 or more first downs, the game ends in a tie or even a loss if Indi continues to march. And then assuming they stop them, they would start at their own 25-35 with their 3rd string quarterback, with awful weather conditions, and have to go about 50 yards with 2:30 and 0 timeouts...

 

You are actually saying number 2 gave the Bills a better chance to win yesterday?

 

Results aside, and odds aside. Because that was roughly the scenario Mcd was given when wondering if he should punt or go for it.

You can't argue......  You make 100% sense and still people will explain how you are wrong.  Heck the post below explained that there was a good chance at a turnover, which Indy did not have one in the game......  But of course he liked the chances of one then.......

Edited December 11, 2017 by Billsfan1972

[BillsFan130]

1 minute ago, Billsfan1972 said:

You can't argue......  You make 100% sense and still people will explain how you are wrong.  Heck the post below explained that there was a good chance at a turnover, which Indy did not have one in the game......

I know. Like if anyone actually answers number 2 in the scenario I listed above, I really have no words to say to that. Its mind boggling

[oldmanfan]

9 minutes ago, billsfan11 said:

Here is the scenario and you tell me what is more likely. Odds aside and results aside.

 

1. The Bills need 1 yard to convert the 4th and 1 on the Colts 40. If they get 1 yard, they need another 15-20 yards to kick a 37-42 yard field goal for basically the win. Or even say 25 more yards to make it an easier field goal try.

 

2. The Bills punt. Need to force Indi to punt without them picking up 2 first downs. If they get 2 or more first downs, the game ends in a tie or even a loss if Indi continues to march. And then assuming they stop them, they would start at their own 25-35 with their 3rd string quarterback, with awful weather conditions, and have to go about 50 yards with 2:30 and 0 timeouts...

 

You are actually saying number 2 gave the Bills a better chance to win yesterday?

 

Results aside, and odds aside. Because that was roughly the scenario Mcd was given when wondering if he should punt or go for it.

As I said earlier I initially did not like the decision, and as I also said I would have gone for it.  But upon reflection I can understand his call for these reasons:

 

1.  You can try and ignore the conditions all you want but the conditions were the dominant part of the game yesterday.

2.  The two most important players on the field yesterday were McCoy and Gore, but the SECOND most important were the punters.

3.  So let's go through the scenario given the first two things.  If you go for it and don't make it, you are essentially playing at best for a tie at that point.  Because the Colts then get the ball around midfield, and even if you hold them on downs you have only two timeouts to slow things down.  They then punt, and pin you back in your part of the filed.

4.  Now you have the ball, you're around 80 yards or so from the end zone, or say 70 yards away from being able to kick what would normally be a chip shot FG but would be anything but that given the conditions.  No way you're likely scoring and thus the best hope is a tie.  And that ignores them actually scoring and winning outright.

5.  By pinning them in their end, you essentially reverse the above.  Schmidt was having a good day.  You pin them down there, you bring safety potentially into play as a way to score.  You get a turnover game is over because you're right there to score.  Or of course you get the ball after they punt, and you're closer than yopu would have been other wise to score.

 

As I said, I would have gone for it.  But I don't think is was as easy a decision as some want to make it out to be.  And it's all because of the weather conditions.  gnoring that is simply not being realistic.  McD said he wanted to get the field position, and as it turned out that was a smart call.

 

[Gugny]

Bills fans get angry of the most stupid ****.

 

Jesus Harold Christ.

• Kneeling during a song.
• A player getting hit out of bounds.
• And a punt.

 

This is what has pissed off Bills fans the most in 2017.  Crazy.

[oldmanfan]

5 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

I have my buddy getting me the numbers as it is premium content....  However I can also and have used ESPN as well which was real time and showed a drop in probability of Win drop on the punt, but again VARIABLES so it doesn't matter what I show you, because you cannot talk bad about coach McD I guess he reached Tyrod status already

So the fact that I said I would gone for it on fourth down means I agree with McD, right?  You see, grownups can look at things and try to understand the thinking behind a coach's decision as opposed to hysterically rant about it.

 

Now about variables.  Yes, variables count is statistics.  A whole lot.  In fact, the entire reason statistical analysis exist is to determine the effect of given variables on a set of data.  And the biggest variable yesterday was the weather conditions.

So since you cannot send me the math that you are basing your hysteria about, and now claim ESPN has it, send me the link to the ESPN data.  Somehow I suspect that won't be forthcoming anytime soon.

[BillsFan130]

1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

As I said earlier I initially did not like the decision, and as I also said I would have gone for it.  But upon reflection I can understand his call for these reasons:

 

1.  You can try and ignore the conditions all you want but the conditions were the dominant part of the game yesterday.

2.  The two most important players on the field yesterday were McCoy and Gore, but the SECOND most important were the punters.

3.  So let's go through the scenario given the first two things.  If you go for it and don't make it, you are essentially playing at best for a tie at that point.  Because the Colts then get the ball around midfield, and even if you hold them on downs you have only two timeouts to slow things down.  They then punt, and pin you back in your part of the filed.

4.  Now you have the ball, you're around 80 yards or so from the end zone, or say 70 yards away from being able to kick what would normally be a chip shot FG but would be anything but that given the conditions.  No way you're likely scoring and thus the best hope is a tie.  And that ignores them actually scoring and winning outright.

5.  By pinning them in their end, you essentially reverse the above.  Schmidt was having a good day.  You pin them down there, you bring safety potentially into play as a way to score.  You get a turnover game is over because you're right there to score.  Or of course you get the ball after they punt, and you're closer than yopu would have been other wise to score.

 

As I said, I would have gone for it.  But I don't think is was as easy a decision as some want to make it out to be.  And it's all because of the weather conditions.  gnoring that is simply not being realistic.  McD said he wanted to get the field position, and as it turned out that was a smart call.

 

I think it was a no brainer to go for it. Like absolute lay-up type of decision that should have been made.

 

Why is it automatically a tie if they don't get it? Colts start at their 40 yard line. Mcd by punting was obviously banking on getting the ball back, so the difference would have been what, maybe 15-20 yards of field position? They would have probably started at their 10-15 yard line instead of their 25-35. Big deal. Giving the ball away to the Colts to potentially save 15-20 yards of field position on a 4th and 1 call makes absolute no sense to me. And like I said, there was absolutely no guarantee the Bills were getting the ball back. We are very lucky Brissett decided to throw a ball 4 yards behind a WIDE open Ty Hilton

[dubs]

Look, I can see both sides of the argument.  Going for it was actually the "safer" thing to do in the sense that not a single person would have second guessed the coach if he went for it.  But I thought in the moment they should have went for it.

 

Despite what some posters are claiming, there are not statistics or data to apply to this situation.  In retrospect, I think it was the right call and not just because they won.

Here's why:

 

There was over 4 minutes left and you had the 2 minute warning and a TO left.  You pin the Colts deep and they are going to have to put the ball in the air to have a chance to win the game.  In those conditions, with a very average QB, that seemed very unlikely.  In fact, that's exactly what happened.  The Bills even scored the TD with about 1:30 to go.

 

More than anything, what baffles me is how this decision is being portrayed as an obvious decision to go for it.  It clearly was not, but I could see both sides of the argument.  If anything it was an obvious judgment call.

 

 

[MAJBobby]

3 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

So the fact that I said I would gone for it on fourth down means I agree with McD, right?  You see, grownups can look at things and try to understand the thinking behind a coach's decision as opposed to hysterically rant about it.

 

Now about variables.  Yes, variables count is statistics.  A whole lot.  In fact, the entire reason statistical analysis exist is to determine the effect of given variables on a set of data.  And the biggest variable yesterday was the weather conditions.

So since you cannot send me the math that you are basing your hysteria about, and now claim ESPN has it, send me the link to the ESPN data.  Somehow I suspect that won't be forthcoming anytime soon.

There it is notice the WIN % drop after the punt

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/game?gameId=400951560

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, billsfan11 said:

I think it was a no brainer to go for it. Like absolute lay-up type of decision that should have been made.

 

Why is it automatically a tie if they don't get it? Colts start at their 40 yard line. Mcd by punting was obviously banking on getting the ball back, so the difference would have been what, maybe 15-20 yards of field position? They would have probably started at their 10-15 yard line instead of their 25-35. Big deal. Giving the ball away to the Colts to potentially save 15-20 yards of field position on a 4th and 1 call makes absolute no sense to me. And like I said, there was absolutely no guarantee the Bills were getting the ball back. We are very lucky Brissett decided to throw a ball 4 yards behind a WIDE open Ty Hilton

They get it at their 40.  Even if they don't make a yard, their punter kicks it say 40 yards and now we are on our 20 yard line.  And have to go at least 70 yards with likely no time outs (because I assume we use our two to save time), and because passing is so difficult it would be difficult to pass and get guys out of bounds to stop the clock. 

 

As I said before I would have run on fourth down.  But you and others seem to want to ignore the field conditions, when that was the single biggest aspect of the game yesterday.  The thinking had to accommodate that.

 

The most amazing play I've seen in a long time was the pass to Thompson.  Incredible.

[BillsFan130]

6 minutes ago, Gugny said:

Bills fans get angry of the most stupid ****.

 

Jesus Harold Christ.

• Kneeling during a song.
• A player getting hit out of bounds.
• And a punt.

 

This is what has pissed off Bills fans the most in 2017.  Crazy.

I don't care about the first two but that punt you are referring to was almost the reason the Bills are out of the playoffs today.

 

Out of curiosity, if Brissett hits Hilton for that wide open pass on the last drive, are you singing the same tune today? Cause that would have ended the bills season