Gutless Call to Punt

[oldmanfan]

14 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

And the fact that people use the snow as an excuse is a joke. 

 

The snow was every reason why he should've went for it on 4th and 1. Considering the way the game way going the chances of them getting back in Colts territory was not good.

Go back a few posts and look at what I wrote.  Yesterday's game was a huge outlier statistically.  And there were good reasons to do what they did.

 

Like any decision a coach makes it can be good or bad.  If you go for it on fourth and one and don't make it it's a bad decision.  And so on.  This one worked.

 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

46 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

And the fact that people use the snow as an excuse is a joke. 

 

The snow was every reason why he should've went for it on 4th and 1. Considering the way the game way going the chances of them getting back in Colts territory was not good.

I think McDermott thought they would make the Colts go 3 and out and start the next drive inside Colts territory. Based on the weather and how the game went, I can understand that. 

 

I would have gone for it. I've always felt that the decision to go for it should be made well in advance. The faster you get the play in and line up to snap the ball the more likely your opponent is confused. 

 

 

 

 

30 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Go back a few posts and look at what I wrote.  Yesterday's game was a huge outlier statistically.  And there were good reasons to do what they did.

 

Like any decision a coach makes it can be good or bad.  If you go for it on fourth and one and don't make it it's a bad decision.  And so on.  This one worked.

 

 

My biggest issue was the wasted timeout. 

Edited December 11, 2017 by TheTruthHurts

[Billsfan1972]

29 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Go back a few posts and look at what I wrote.  Yesterday's game was a huge outlier statistically.  And there were good reasons to do what they did.

 

Like any decision a coach makes it can be good or bad.  If you go for it on fourth and one and don't make it it's a bad decision.  And so on.  This one worked.

 

 

Not at all.....  The season was on the line and the only reason it did work was that we completed a hail mary in the snow by their emergency qb.....  A fg was not a given and the Bills got their two longest plays of the day on the drive.

 

If Indy completes the pass to Hilton the Bills don't get the ball back.

 

It was beyond stupid.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 minute ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Not at all.....  The season was on the line and the only reason it did work was that we completed a hail mary in the snow by their emergency qb.....  A fg was not a given and the Bills got their two longest plays of the day on the drive.

 

If Indy completes the pass to Hilton the Bills don't get the ball back.

 

It was beyond stupid.

If's really don't matter.

[Royale with Cheese]

I hated the call....still do.  Sean did get lucky but I'll take it.

[oldmanfan]

14 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Not at all.....  The season was on the line and the only reason it did work was that we completed a hail mary in the snow by their emergency qb.....  A fg was not a given and the Bills got their two longest plays of the day on the drive.

 

If Indy completes the pass to Hilton the Bills don't get the ball back.

 

It was beyond stupid.

You make the yard on fourth down then we are OK and might be able to score later.  But if we didn't game was over and the best we get is a tie. 

 

You pin them in their end and you can get a safety possibly, or you maybe get a pick and then you are right there to kick the FG and win.  Or score a TD.

 

Either decision could have been right or wrong.  Say on 4th and 1 Shady slips in the backfield.  Then it's bad.

 

The real issue is that people are trying to place normal probabilities, etc. into a game that was so much of a statistical outlier given the conditions.

 

I think if I were coach yesterday I would have ran the ball on fourth and one.  But I can also understand McD's decision.  And it worked out.

4 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I hated the call....still do.  Sean did get lucky but I'll take it.

But it's not lucky.  I think that's just a weak argument.  McD counted on his D to make a stop.  They did.  Then he counted on his offense to make a play.  And they did.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Just now, oldmanfan said:

You make the yard on fourth down then we are OK and might be able to score later.  But if we didn't game was over and the best we get is a tie. 

 

You pin them in their end and you can get a safety possibly, or you maybe get a pick and then you are right there to kick the FG and win.  Or score a TD.

 

Either decision could have been right or wrong.  Say on 4th and 1 Shady slips in the backfield.  Then it's bad.

 

The real issue is that people are trying to place normal probabilities, etc. into a game that was so much of a statistical outlier given the conditions.

 

I think if I were coach yesterday I would have ran the ball on fourth and one.  But I can also understand McD's decision.  And it worked out.

Exactly. The timeout is what angered me. 

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

You make the yard on fourth down then we are OK and might be able to score later.  But if we didn't game was over and the best we get is a tie. 

 

You pin them in their end and you can get a safety possibly, or you maybe get a pick and then you are right there to kick the FG and win.  Or score a TD.

 

Either decision could have been right or wrong.  Say on 4th and 1 Shady slips in the backfield.  Then it's bad.

 

The real issue is that people are trying to place normal probabilities, etc. into a game that was so much of a statistical outlier given the conditions.

 

I think if I were coach yesterday I would have ran the ball on fourth and one.  But I can also understand McD's decision.  And it worked out.

But it's not lucky.  I think that's just a weak argument.  McD counted on his D to make a stop.  They did.  Then he counted on his offense to make a play.  And they did.

 

If the argument was to count on his offense to make a play, why can't he count on them to make a play on 4th and 1?

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

3 minutes ago, TheTruthHurts said:

Exactly. The timeout is what angered me. 

 

Agreed, that was more baffling then the punt.

 

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

If the argument was to count on his offense to make a play, why can't he count on them to make a play on 4th and 1?

 

I agree.  Which is why I said I would have gone for it on fourth.  But I can also understand his reasoning for what he did.  And it did work after all. 

4 minutes ago, TheTruthHurts said:

Exactly. The timeout is what angered me. 

Which one?  I'm trying to remember the exact order of things there at the end.  Are you talking the one before the 2 minute warning?  That got them an extra play.

[Royale with Cheese]

1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

I agree.  Which is why I said I would have gone for it on fourth.  But I can also understand his reasoning for what he did.  And it did work after all. 

Which one?  I'm trying to remember the exact order of things there at the end.  Are you talking the one before the 2 minute warning?  That got them an extra play.

 

I felt gut punched when Schmidt trotted out there before and after the timeout.  

29 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Not at all.....  The season was on the line and the only reason it did work was that we completed a hail mary in the snow by their emergency qb.....  A fg was not a given and the Bills got their two longest plays of the day on the drive.

 

If Indy completes the pass to Hilton the Bills don't get the ball back.

 

It was beyond stupid.

 

In what world is that a hail mary?

[teef]

i don't think anyone can love that call, but in this instance it worked.  beyond that i don't care anymore. 

2 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

 

In what world is that a hail mary?

you know how his mind works.

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, teef said:

i don't think anyone can love that call, but in this instance it worked.  beyond that i don't care anymore. 

you know how his mind works.

 

Ole Sammy Watkins got another 3 receptions.  That's 34 for the year.

[NoSaint]

1 hour ago, TheTruthHurts said:

Winning the lottery and the Colts punting on that day are slightly different odds. 

 

Again, on that day with that weather vs that QB, punting and going for it are about the same odds of winning. You are pretty confident you will get the ball back with over 2 minutes around your 40 yard line. 

 

On a clear day punting there is always the wrong decision IMO. 

 

 

Obviously the lotto is longer odds. Which is why I used it to highlight how silly “it worked so it wasn’t lucky” sounded 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

2 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

 

Obviously the lotto is longer odds. Which is why I used it to highlight how silly “it worked so it wasn’t lucky” sounded 

 

It's not stupid. The likely scenario with the Bills punting is the Colts punt the ball back. The only question is would they go 3 and out or not. 

 

 

[hemma]

8 of Indy's 12 possessions were 5 plays or less, so for the odd conditions in this game, I'm ok with the call.

There was a good chance we'd be getting the ball back and he guessed correctly.

 

Decent weather, I think he goes for it.

[Billsfan1972]

20 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I felt gut punched when Schmidt trotted out there before and after the timeout.  

 

In what world is that a hail mary?

Sorry on  third and 8 and it is one's last chance I'd call a 35 yard pass into the wind by your emergency QB a hail mary......  

 

The real question is if 4th & 8 would he have punted?

[Royale with Cheese]

Just now, Billsfan1972 said:

Sorry on  third and 8 and it is one's last chance I'd call a 35 yard pass into the wind by your emergency QB a hail mary......  

 

The real question is if 4th & 8 would he have punted?

 

Throwing to a WR singled up isn't a hail mary.  You can call it that but it would be wrong.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

23 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Ole Sammy Watkins got another 3 receptions.  That's 34 for the year.

 

#elitedecoy

 

[SWATeam]

I love the WGR statisticians treating football like baseball...  Way too many variables to accurately quantify.  What's the Math on 4th and 1 in a god damned blizzard with your third string QB?

 

With the way the punts were sticking like a lob wedge, there was a good chance that we could pin them inside the 10 and put some pressure on them.  Didn't work out that way, but I was ok with the call- in those conditions.  You obviously don't punt if you know you are only going to net 15 yards.