Bleeding Bills Blue Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Turnovers are largely a product of chance... you can't predict falling on fumbles, or where the ball will bounce However limiting turnovers on your own offense is something you can do. The year Carolina went 15-1 and went to the super bowl they were +20. Their offense still turned the ball over a fair amount that season, but they got an absurd number of takeaways. A year later, with regression towards the mean they ended up 7-9 and -2. Oakland last year was +16 and a playoff team, this season -6 and looking about cooked. There's really only a couple of teams that are like always near the top though. KC and NE - because both QBs don't throw picks, and the coaches preach ball security. I think if we continue to NOT turn it over, the turnover diff will still remain pretty positive which helps you stay in every game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Turnovers are great. Points off of turnovers are even better!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott7975 Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 (edited) If the turnovers are sustainable because of the coaching then McDermott would be the first coach in NFL history to accomplish this feat and should earn 5x what he is currently making. Chances are, this is not the case. But we can always hope. Carolina has been in the top 10 in takeaways all 4 of the last 4 years. In the same timeframe Arizona has been in the top 10 in takeaways 3 of the last 4 years. Philly has been top 10 in 3 of the last 4 years (11th in the 4th year). Cinci has been in the top 10 in 2 of the last 4 (11th in a third). KC has been top 5 in 3 of the last 4 years. Sometimes teams are just good at taking the ball away. Couple all this with my post above about our own staff. Edited October 30, 2017 by Scott7975 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Carolina has been in the top 10 in takeaways all 4 of the last 4 years. In the same timeframe Arizona has been in the top 10 in takeaways 3 of the last 4 years. Philly has been top 10 in 3 of the last 4 years (11th in the 4th year). Cinci has been in the top 10 in 2 of the last 4 (11th in a third). KC has been top 5 in 3 of the last 4 years. Sometimes teams are just good at taking the ball away. Couple all this with my post above about our own staff. Again I think recovering turnovers (fumbles and INTs) is predominantly luck. Creating the chance for a turnover is probably a skill, but the variability in TO ratio from year to year and team to team in the NFL suggests that your theory is backwards: some teams are good at not giving the ball up, while taking the ball away is mostly luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott7975 Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 (edited) Again I think recovering turnovers (fumbles and INTs) is predominantly luck. Creating the chance for a turnover is probably a skill, but the variability in TO ratio from year to year and team to team in the NFL suggests that your theory is backwards: some teams are good at not giving the ball up, while taking the ball away is mostly luck. The stats here are purely takeaways. Giving the ball up has nothing to do with them. Yes, I agree that recovering a fumble has some luck involved. Not always but indeed it plays a role. Please also see my post on page two where I talk about McDermott and Fraziers career success in turnovers. Its not a coincidence so I don't feel its luck. Edited October 30, 2017 by Scott7975 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarRifleman Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 This scares me. Once the luck stops and the balls stop bouncing our way will we still get the wins. You're saying our 7 wins was all "luck"? That's an insult! They won those games by being well prepared (coaching) and good play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 (edited) Again I think recovering turnovers (fumbles and INTs) is predominantly luck. Creating the chance for a turnover is probably a skill, but the variability in TO ratio from year to year and team to team in the NFL suggests that your theory is backwards: some teams are good at not giving the ball up, while taking the ball away is mostly luck. and for a long time luck wasn't on our side. It has changed thus far. You're saying our 7 wins was all "luck"? That's an insult! They won those games by being well prepared (coaching) and good play. I think he was referring to this - the luck has to do with how the ball bounces. Edited October 30, 2017 by ShadyBillsFan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoPar_v2 Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Again I think recovering turnovers (fumbles and INTs) is predominantly luck. Creating the chance for a turnover is probably a skill, but the variability in TO ratio from year to year and team to team in the NFL suggests that your theory is backwards: some teams are good at not giving the ball up, while taking the ball away is mostly luck. Again, what are you basing that on? Perhaps there is a small element of luck involved with recovering a fumble, simply due to the shape of the ball and erratic nature of the way it bounces. But forcing fumbles certainly isn't luck. And interceptions? I'd say very little luck, if any. Being in the right position, baiting a QB into a throw, rushers pressuring a QB into rushing a bad throw, tracking the ball in the air, out-muscling a contesting receiver, actually making the catch and holding on...which one of those elements screams "luck" to you? Anxiously waiting for you to enlighten me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 (edited) Again, what are you basing that on? Perhaps there is a small element of luck involved with recovering a fumble, simply due to the shape of the ball and erratic nature of the way it bounces. But forcing fumbles certainly isn't luck. And interceptions? I'd say very little luck, if any. Being in the right position, baiting a QB into a throw, rushers pressuring a QB into rushing a bad throw, tracking the ball in the air, out-muscling a contesting receiver, actually making the catch and holding on...which one of those elements screams "luck" to you? Anxiously waiting for you to enlighten me. http://www.footballo...012-fumble-luck https://drbobsports....-turnover-luck/ Consider yourself enlightened. *EDIT- Also, if you're more statistically inclined: http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2014/10/how-random-are-turnovers/ Edited October 30, 2017 by GoBills808 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Issue is this type of run just isnt sustainable to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoPar_v2 Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 http://www.footballo...012-fumble-luck https://drbobsports....-turnover-luck/ Consider yourself enlightened. Haha did you read those? Because they do not refute anything I said. No where did I say previous season turnover production is predictive of a team's current turnover production (because it isn't, especially on a team with an entirely new coaching staff and completely revamped secondary.) Nor was that even the original point of your response. What you were saying is turnover generation (in any given year) is based on primarily on luck. And I tried to help you out by conceding you may have a small point about fumble recovery just based on the physics of the game. Still waiting for you to answer my question related to interceptions though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 (edited) Issue is this type of run just isnt sustainable to me. people said the same for Buffalo's 50 sack season before they repeated it (before it got Rexed up) Edited October 30, 2017 by ShadyBillsFan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott7975 Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 (edited) Issue is this type of run just isnt sustainable to me. From season to season to season. Likely no. Not number 1 in it anyhow. Both McDermott and Frazier have had turnover success as DCs everywhere they have been. Will we get 3 turnovers a game every game. No, very likely not. We will continue to generate turnovers and not turn over the ball often the rest of the season. Yeah, I am pretty confident they will. Its coaching. We aren't going to just all of a sudden completely stop getting turnovers and or start turning the ball over left and right. BTW teams that have lead the turnover differential have all made the playoffs for the last 19 years. We currently have a pretty big lead. Edited October 30, 2017 by Scott7975 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Haha did you read those? Because they do not refute anything I said. No where did I say previous season turnover production is predictive of a team's current turnover production (because it isn't, especially on a team with an entirely new coaching staff and completely revamped secondary.) Nor was that even the original point of your response. What you were saying is turnover generation (in any given year) is based on primarily on luck. And I tried to help you out by conceding you may have a small point about fumble recovery just based on the physics of the game. Still waiting for you to answer my question related to interceptions though. More than half of any given season's turnover differential is due to luck. Luck is the overriding factor in turnovers. Your point about interceptions was just your personal interpretation of how the physics involved with creating an interception somehow negate its inherent variance, which is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat68 Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 2 of the 3 TO Milano has been apart of only 1 was flukey. The Td was was a fluke play. The int vs Tampa was just a great play and great coverage. The punt return was just taking the ball out of the return mans hands. For every good bounce turnover Buffalo is making 2 more good plays. Defense goal should be to make plays not just stop them not just hold them out of the endzone. Micah Hyde made plays all over the field for GB and usually in the biggest games. The way the defense is playing is more sustainable than what most think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BADOLBILZ Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Issue is this type of run just isnt sustainable to me. The current massive turnover differential? No. But they didn't need all the turnovers they got yesterday to win that game. And they should continue not turning the ball over much and their style of defense should yield enough to create a significant disparity at years end. Remember, Tyrod had the team on the brink of setting a SB era record for fewest turnovers in a 16 game season until Whaley benched him for the finale last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Considering how one of the talking points is that we aren't scoring after turnovers, I get the feeling that our success is sustainable. And if we start scoring off the turnovers we will be closer to dominant rather than just competing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punching Bag Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Again I think recovering turnovers (fumbles and INTs) is predominantly luck. Creating the chance for a turnover is probably a skill, but the variability in TO ratio from year to year and team to team in the NFL suggests that your theory is backwards: some teams are good at not giving the ball up, while taking the ball away is mostly luck. if a player baits the QB and then jumps in front of ball to grab it, it is not luck. If it bounces off the WRs head that is luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlbillsfan1975 Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 The turnovers are awesome. Id like to see more touchdowns on ones that occur in the opponents territory. I agree that tipping passes and stepping in front of throws isnt luck. Its called having players in position to make a play and then the player does. The fumbles are also something being taught. The Seahawks did this during their run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles Romes Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 What luck? They are forcing turnovers. um, the kicker ripped out a fumble yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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