BuffaloHokie13 Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 So I took a look at Wins and Losses by team over the past 2 years with a focus on whether teams scored and/or allowed 24+ points. Points of clarification: - I ignored all ties in this analysis, as it is about wins and losses specifically - Offensive Carries is the amount of times a team won despite their Defense allowing 24+ points - Offensive Letdowns is the amount of times a team lost despite their Defense allowing <24 points - Defensive Carries is the amount of times a team won despite their Offense scoring <24 points - Defensive Letdowns is the amount of times a team lost despite their Offense scoring 24+ points Here are the Bills' ranks in relevant categories: In Wins: Average Points Scored: 27.1 (T-22nd) Average Points Allowed: 14.5 (4th) In Losses: Average Points Scored: 21.9 (2nd) Average Points Allowed: 30.5 (28th) We scored 24+ Points 18 times (T-10th) and won 50% of those games (T-28th). When we failed to score 24+ we won 42.86% of the time (6th). We allowed 24+ Points 14 times (T-13th) and won 0% of those games (T-29th). When we held opponents to <24 points we won 83.33% of the time (T-7th). We had 0 Offensive Carries (T-29th) We had 3 Offensive Letdowns (T-6th) We had 6 Defensive Carries (T-8th) We had 9 Defensive Letdowns (32nd) The Bills related conclusion that I draw from this is that the Bills are who we thought they were, and we let them off the hook. The Offense is a consistent unit when it comes to scoring and it isn't going to win you games, but it also very rarely loses you games. The Defense was terribly inconsistent, and our results were generally tied much more closely to their successes and failures. As I stated in another thread: The offense has yet to carry a game where the defense has struggled, and the defense has let down our offense more than any other team in the league. Honestly, as sad as that sentence is, it sounds just about right. I sorted the data by the teams that allowed 24+ points the least. The top 12 teams in this stat all made the playoffs at least once in the past 2 years, and those 12 teams account for 18 of the 24 playoff appearances over the past 2 years. Every team that made the playoffs in both 2015 and 2016 are in those top 12 teams. The only team in the bottom 12 of this stat to make the playoffs was Miami. As an aside, I hope this remains a discussion about team stats instead of devolving into opinions on individual performances. Cheers everyone, and GO BILLS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike in Horseheads Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 Hokie ... In other words are D sucked, good luck on the attacks on individuals. Nice job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted June 21, 2017 Author Share Posted June 21, 2017 I don't think they sucked, I think they sucked at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 Great work Hokie!!! Thanks Rex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike in Horseheads Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 Great work Hokie!!! Thanks Rex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul Costa Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 Nice job 👍Not surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TakeYouToTasker Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 Why did you choose the number 24 specifically? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackOrton Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 (edited) So I took a look at Wins and Losses by team over the past 2 years with a focus on whether teams scored and/or allowed 24+ points. Points of clarification: - I ignored all ties in this analysis, as it is about wins and losses specifically - Offensive Carries is the amount of times a team won despite their Defense allowing 24+ points - Offensive Letdowns is the amount of times a team lost despite their Defense allowing <24 points - Defensive Carries is the amount of times a team won despite their Offense scoring <24 points - Defensive Letdowns is the amount of times a team lost despite their Offense scoring 24+ points Here are the Bills' ranks in relevant categories: In Wins: Average Points Scored: 27.1 (T-22nd) Average Points Allowed: 14.5 (4th) In Losses: Average Points Scored: 21.9 (2nd) Average Points Allowed: 30.5 (28th) We scored 24+ Points 18 times (T-10th) and won 50% of those games (T-28th). When we failed to score 24+ we won 42.86% of the time (6th). We allowed 24+ Points 14 times (T-13th) and won 0% of those games (T-29th). When we held opponents to <24 points we won 83.33% of the time (T-7th). We had 0 Offensive Carries (T-29th) We had 3 Offensive Letdowns (T-6th) We had 6 Defensive Carries (T-8th) We had 9 Defensive Letdowns (32nd) The Bills related conclusion that I draw from this is that the Bills are who we thought they were, and we let them off the hook. The Offense is a consistent unit when it comes to scoring and it isn't going to win you games, but it also very rarely loses you games. The Defense was terribly inconsistent, and our results were generally tied much more closely to their successes and failures. As I stated in another thread: The offense has yet to carry a game where the defense has struggled, and the defense has let down our offense more than any other team in the league. Honestly, as sad as that sentence is, it sounds just about right. I sorted the data by the teams that allowed 24+ points the least. The top 12 teams in this stat all made the playoffs at least once in the past 2 years, and those 12 teams account for 18 of the 24 playoff appearances over the past 2 years. Every team that made the playoffs in both 2015 and 2016 are in those top 12 teams. The only team in the bottom 12 of this stat to make the playoffs was Miami. As an aside, I hope this remains a discussion about team stats instead of devolving into opinions on individual performances. Cheers everyone, and GO BILLS! Excellent conclusion and one I agree with. Look no further than the Oakland game. It was classic Bills. We have them on the ropes and they start coming back. The defense starts to falter, the offense can't make a play and then it's curtains. Neither group stood up and changed the game. Edited June 22, 2017 by jmc12290 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chandler#81 Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 Thanks for the effort, Hokie. I'll do my bit to help keep the discussion civil and -ya know, mature.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 (edited) To me, it reads like we need massive improvements on both sides of the ball. Yes, the defense is the bigger issue, but the fact that we were one of four teams to not win any games in which the defense gave up more than 24 points is a problem, as well. Meanwhile, the Patriots and the Falcons were ≥ 50%. That being said, when the defense allowed less than 24 points, our conservative ball control offense worked in our favor, so that's good. Still, we need to be able to put up more points in an event our defense fails. A 'ball control' offense only works if we have a great defense, which we don't have. Hopefully McD can restore some defensive results, and hopefully our offense can be more dangerous. Edited June 22, 2017 by Dorkington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 Good work Hokie. This reiterates that in the Rex Ryan years we won or lost on the basis of our defensive performance. It is why people still want more out of our offense because it isn't just about points scored.... it is about stepping up and winning us games. Our offense has yet to prove it can do that. The defense has done it... but has also majorly let us down on other occasions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted June 22, 2017 Author Share Posted June 22, 2017 Why did you choose the number 24 specifically? Good question! It started as a defense focused study, and the average points allowed for the 16th & 17th ranked teams in '15 and '16 was 23.58. I figured round up and hold the O to the same standard despite the 16th and 17th ranked offenses being about a point lower than the defense each year. To me, it reads like we need massive improvements on both sides of the ball. Yes, the defense is the bigger issue, but the fact that we were one of four teams to not win any games in which the defense gave up more than 24 points is a problem, as well. Meanwhile, the Patriots and the Falcons were ≥ 50%. That being said, when the defense allowed less than 24 points, our conservative ball control offense worked in our favor, so that's good. Still, we need to be able to put up more points in an event our defense fails. A 'ball control' offense only works if we have a great defense, which we don't have. Hopefully McD can restore some defensive results, and hopefully our offense can be more dangerous. Agreed. 0-14 is awful, and 15-3 is really good. Good work Hokie. This reiterates that in the Rex Ryan years we won or lost on the basis of our defensive performance. It is why people still want more out of our offense because it isn't just about points scored.... it is about stepping up and winning us games. Our offense has yet to prove it can do that. The defense has done it... but has also majorly let us down on other occasions. Exactly. And it is worth pointing out that our D only allowed 24+ points one more time over the 2 years than the top 12 who make up 75% of the playoff teams (2 more than the other AFC teams though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webster Guy Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 Good breakdown. Wondering how deep GM's go into data like this when looking at team needs. We certainly have gone heavier on defense in the past few drafts and in coaching hires, hopefully it pans out. One other analytic I'd love to see is how many games we would have won if we had the best kicker in the league vs what we've had in the past 2 years. I still think drafting the best college kicker should have been a priority these past few years. Seems to be an afterthought for a lot of teams yet these guys have massive impacts on outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 So in conclusion The Bills didn't have a good enough defense to make up for an average offense... And the Bills didn't have a good enough offense to make up for an average, and often below average, defense. Result: 8-8 at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4merper4mer Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 Allow me to summarize: Cuz Rex Sux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aristocrat Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 Back to 4-3 should push that defense back into the top ten category and thus more wins Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 Back to 4-3 should push that defense back into the top ten category and thus more wins Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I don't see us being a top 10 D this year. Improved from where Rex had us sure... but still a couple of spots outside the top 10. I think top 10 defenses usually have one unit that is really, really good. Under Schwartz it was our D-line. With the game wrecking force that was 2014 Mario gone and Kyle 3 years older, plus Shaq a ? and Dareus (for different reasons) a ? I'm not sure I can comfortably put our line in that company any more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JM2009 Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 I don't see us being a top 10 D this year. Improved from where Rex had us sure... but still a couple of spots outside the top 10. I think top 10 defenses usually have one unit that is really, really good. Under Schwartz it was our D-line. With the game wrecking force that was 2014 Mario gone and Kyle 3 years older, plus Shaq a ? and Dareus (for different reasons) a ? I'm not sure I can comfortably put our line in that company any more. If Lawson and Ragland play as advertised, this defense could surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted June 22, 2017 Author Share Posted June 22, 2017 I don't see us being a top 10 D this year. Improved from where Rex had us sure... but still a couple of spots outside the top 10. I think top 10 defenses usually have one unit that is really, really good. Under Schwartz it was our D-line. With the game wrecking force that was 2014 Mario gone and Kyle 3 years older, plus Shaq a ? and Dareus (for different reasons) a ? I'm not sure I can comfortably put our line in that company any more. I don't even know that I'm looking for a significant improvement in their rankings so much as consistent performances. Our Defense's performance swing between wins and losses is 16 points, which is the 2nd highest. Ideally our defense looks more like the Cowboys in my study. Their swing between wins and losses is only 5.8, and their team ranked 17 in yards & 16 in points in 2015 and 14 in yards an 5th in points in 2016. Realistically we will probably look more like the Titans though. Their swing is 6.6 and their overall season performances have been very similar to ours over the past 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 So in conclusion The Bills didn't have a good enough defense to make up for an average offense... And the Bills didn't have a good enough offense to make up for an average, and often below average, defense. Result: 8-8 at best That sadly, sums it up. We as Bills fans would like to see improvements across the board. Offense, Defense, Special Teams and Coaching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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