24 Points, Wins, Losses, and the Playoffs

[aristocrat]

 

Back to 4-3 should push that defense back into the top ten category and thus more wins Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

 

 

I don't see us being a top 10 D this year. Improved from where Rex had us sure... but still a couple of spots outside the top 10. I think top 10 defenses usually have one unit that is really, really good. Under Schwartz it was our D-line. With the game wrecking force that was 2014 Mario gone and Kyle 3 years older, plus Shaq a ? and Dareus (for different reasons) a ? I'm not sure I can comfortably put our line in that company any more.

We were still 8th in sacks last year. If healthy I think we could lead the league in sacks. Hughes in double digits, Marcell too, few from Kyle and Shaq 8 or so.

 

 

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[GunnerBill]

We were still 8th in sacks last year. If healthy I think we could lead the league in sacks. Hughes in double digits, Marcell too, few from Kyle and Shaq 8 or so. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

We were.... but usually from feasting on poor teams. We will have to sack better offenses to be near leading the league in 2017.

[1st Ammendment NoMas]

The more this goes to show how Rex completely f'ked things up. He was a joke and from Day 1, I couldn't wait to see his ass kicked to the street. Thank God Pegs wised up and cleaned house. If Rex bravado would have shrunk and he allowed Schwartz to run the D, we would have tasted playoff food for once. But no, dickbag set us back 3 years.

[wilcoam]

The analysis backed everything I've been saying the past 2 years

The D was the primary difference between the potential to win 10 games plus or not

Its primary issue was against the run and especially in 2016

However a change in coaching and scheme, while a good start, does not necessarily automatically fix that

You have to have the talent on the field, and that magical fit, to implement the new system

 

Unfort we lost 5/12 starting players from 2016 in Zack, Gilmore, Robey, Williams, and Graham

In return we gained Ragland, White, ?????, Hyde, & Poyer

Yes if Ragland is the real deal, and the backup Hyde, from one of the worst secondaries in 16, lives up to board hype, we could surprise

On the other hand it could be a very long year for our transitional back 7

 

jc

[Jauronimo]

HEAT MAPS!!

[C.Biscuit97]

1) excellent work. I love thoughtful threads that require time and well thought premises. A tip of the hat to you.

 

My disagreement, respectfully, are:

 

1). Not all points are the same. We were down 31-10 against NE and then 41-17. We scored a td and 2 pointer with 30 seconds. That is a weak 24.

 

The Miami game saw us down 28-17, when we scored with 14 seconds left. That, IMO, is a weak 24.

 

3). The Cardinals game featured the defense creating 5 turnovers which gave the offense great field position. Shouldn't that be factored in?

 

In the Dolphins game, the offense went 3 and out 7 times in a row in the Miami heat. Are we not going to fact that into the defense melting down?

 

Again, I appreciate the work but blindly looking at stats doesn't give the full picture. The offense would stall for halves and quarters. The defense won the Bengals and Pats games and should have won the Ravens game. Defense, offense, & STs feed off each other. The Colts had a defense that was built on pass rushers who could tee off when Peyton gave them the lead.

 

Rex sucked and I'm glad he is gone. But this was a 7-9 team and big offense and defense played their part in our failings.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

In the Dolphins game, the offense went 3 and out 7 times in a row in the Miami heat

 

 

Rex sucked and I'm glad he is gone.

 

 

 

ouch

 

and

 

thank god

Edited June 22, 2017 by ShadyBillsFan

[BuffaloHokie13]

1) excellent work. I love thoughtful threads that require time and well thought premises. A tip of the hat to you.

 

My disagreement, respectfully, are:

 

1). Not all points are the same. We were down 31-10 against NE and then 41-17. We scored a td and 2 pointer with 30 seconds. That is a weak 24.

 

The Miami game saw us down 28-17, when we scored with 14 seconds left. That, IMO, is a weak 24.

 

3). The Cardinals game featured the defense creating 5 turnovers which gave the offense great field position. Shouldn't that be factored in?

 

In the Dolphins game, the offense went 3 and out 7 times in a row in the Miami heat. Are we not going to fact that into the defense melting down?

 

Again, I appreciate the work but blindly looking at stats doesn't give the full picture. The offense would stall for halves and quarters. The defense won the Bengals and Pats games and should have won the Ravens game. Defense, offense, & STs feed off each other. The Colts had a defense that was built on pass rushers who could tee off when Peyton gave them the lead.

 

Rex sucked and I'm glad he is gone. But this was a 7-9 team and big offense and defense played their part in our failings.

This analysis is comparing all teams under the same circumstances. No idea how long it would take to contextualize every game to eliminate garbage time points, but I think it's a pretty safe assumption to say every team has them.

 

As far as turnovers, the Bills defense created 43 turnovers over the last 2 years, good for T-19th in that span. Again, looking at this broadly, many teams forced more turnovers than us and many committed more than us. For my purposes those things have already been factored into the scores.

 

The Miami heat for that game on October 23rd was 82 at kickoff with ~45% humidity. We also didn't go 3 and out 7 times in a row. We went 3 and out twice, had a 1 play TD pass, went 3 and out 3 times, and then had a 13 play TD drive.

 

As for your final point, the Bengals and Pats* games were the only 2 games that qualified as Defensive Carries in 2016 and the Ravens game was the only game in 2016 that qualified as an Offensive Letdown. So you identified exactly the same games the analysis did

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Bills defense created 43 turnovers over the last 2 years

 

Don't forget sacks

 

didn't they have ~ 50 each the 2 years prior to Rex?

Edited June 22, 2017 by ShadyBillsFan

[BuffaloHokie13]

Don't forget sacks

 

didn't they have ~ 50 each the 2 years prior to Rex?

I didn't really get into the minutia of any stats beyond points with the thought that the culmination of all of those stats caused the resulting scores. Also, while sacks are a nice stat to have, I think QB Pressures is probably a more important one.

[aristocrat]

 

We were still 8th in sacks last year. If healthy I think we could lead the league in sacks. Hughes in double digits, Marcell too, few from Kyle and Shaq 8 or so. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

 

 

We were.... but usually from feasting on poor teams. We will have to sack better offenses to be near leading the league in 2017.

Ok well with Marcell playing full year and Shaq too they will have the chance too.

 

 

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[The Wiz]

Why did you choose the number 24 specifically?

24 shall be the number scored and the number of the scoring shall be 24. 25 shalt thou not score, neither shalt thou score 23, excepting that thou then proceedeth to 24 on the extra point. 26 is right out.

[LABILLBACKER]

Last year our offense ranked 10th at 24.93 pts per game. I'm sorry but that should be enough to easily win 9-10 games. And if Sammy is 100% that number goes up. We lost last year because we had incompetent coaching, an awful defense and if we stop Jay Ajaya 2 times we make the playoffs....

[Marty McFly]

This analysis is comparing all teams under the same circumstances. No idea how long it would take to contextualize every game to eliminate garbage time points, but I think it's a pretty safe assumption to say every team has them.

 

As far as turnovers, the Bills defense created 43 turnovers over the last 2 years, good for T-19th in that span. Again, looking at this broadly, many teams forced more turnovers than us and many committed more than us. For my purposes those things have already been factored into the scores.

 

The Miami heat for that game on October 23rd was 82 at kickoff with ~45% humidity. We also didn't go 3 and out 7 times in a row. We went 3 and out twice, had a 1 play TD pass, went 3 and out 3 times, and then had a 13 play TD drive.

 

As for your final point, the Bengals and Pats* games were the only 2 games that qualified as Defensive Carries in 2016 and the Ravens game was the only game in 2016 that qualified as an Offensive Letdown. So you identified exactly the same games the analysis did

Nice Thread Hoke appreciate the work you put into this. When we 1st brought in TT in 2015, the belief was we just needed a good game manager QB to compliment our top 5 defense. Then our defense fell off a cliff and all of a sudden Tyrod gets trashed for not being Peyton Manning pre-2016. Lookin forward to Tyrods progression this 3rd year and how well he translates to the WCO.

 

Ok well with Marcell playing full year and Shaq too they will have the chance too. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Word. Lookin forward to Shaq after a year of training and healthy under his belt. His 1st sack was on Brady IIRC. Thats a good sign. Hope he works on his closing speed this off-season.

 

Also think if healthy and in shape, Ragland will be good too.

 

Last year our offense ranked 10th at 24.93 pts per game. I'm sorry but that should be enough to easily win 9-10 games. And if Sammy is 100% that number goes up. We lost last year because we had incompetent coaching, an awful defense and if we stop Jay Ajaya 2 times we make the playoffs....

 

Cmon bro you know any comment that takes away from the Tyrod bashing narrative isnt allowed here.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

So I took a look at Wins and Losses by team over the past 2 years with a focus on whether teams scored and/or allowed 24+ points. Points of clarification:

 

- I ignored all ties in this analysis, as it is about wins and losses specifically

- Offensive Carries is the amount of times a team won despite their Defense allowing 24+ points

- Offensive Letdowns is the amount of times a team lost despite their Defense allowing <24 points

- Defensive Carries is the amount of times a team won despite their Offense scoring <24 points

- Defensive Letdowns is the amount of times a team lost despite their Offense scoring 24+ points

 

Here are the Bills' ranks in relevant categories:

In Wins:

Average Points Scored: 27.1 (T-22nd)

Average Points Allowed: 14.5 (4th)

 

In Losses:

Average Points Scored: 21.9 (2nd)

Average Points Allowed: 30.5 (28th)

 

We scored 24+ Points 18 times (T-10th) and won 50% of those games (T-28th). When we failed to score 24+ we won 42.86% of the time (6th).

We allowed 24+ Points 14 times (T-13th) and won 0% of those games (T-29th). When we held opponents to <24 points we won 83.33% of the time (T-7th).

 

We had 0 Offensive Carries (T-29th)

We had 3 Offensive Letdowns (T-6th)

We had 6 Defensive Carries (T-8th)

We had 9 Defensive Letdowns (32nd)

 

The Bills related conclusion that I draw from this is that the Bills are who we thought they were, and we let them off the hook. The Offense is a consistent unit when it comes to scoring and it isn't going to win you games, but it also very rarely loses you games. The Defense was terribly inconsistent, and our results were generally tied much more closely to their successes and failures. As I stated in another thread: The offense has yet to carry a game where the defense has struggled, and the defense has let down our offense more than any other team in the league. Honestly, as sad as that sentence is, it sounds just about right.

 

I sorted the data by the teams that allowed 24+ points the least. The top 12 teams in this stat all made the playoffs at least once in the past 2 years, and those 12 teams account for 18 of the 24 playoff appearances over the past 2 years. Every team that made the playoffs in both 2015 and 2016 are in those top 12 teams. The only team in the bottom 12 of this stat to make the playoffs was Miami.

 

As an aside, I hope this remains a discussion about team stats instead of devolving into opinions on individual performances. Cheers everyone, and GO BILLS!

Woah, The bills defense lead all units offense and defense in letdowns... I despise Rex Ryan for stealing 100 hours of my life.

 

 

Nice breakdown.