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New data shows Tyrod/the offense was better than you thought


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Going entire quarters without a first down are not drive killers, they are season killers.

 

That's all the opposing coach has to do. Keep a lid on the Bills, knowing that when he wants to, he can get a half of dozen three and outs, and then game over. Same thing happened to Bledsoe.

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I agree with this - I also think that if TT performed better in several late game drives and looked better in the fast paced 2 minute offense and we won a few games because of last drive throws the narrative would change also. His best games - Miami and Seattle he did just that - he moved them down the field with chances to win. Seattle he did not make a play at the end - I don't think that was all on him - the Refs gave him no help. Miami he made enough plays and special teams missed the kick.

 

The problem is there were other games that he had that chances against Baltimore, NYJs, Miami, Pittsburgh, heck even Oakland to lead drives to change the game. Yes the defense was an issue, but other playoff teams overcame that. A tighter and better defense helps, but there were still issues that TT needs to improve significantly to change that narrative.

...I guess my pretty simple question would be how can there be a vast dichotomy of opinions based the the VERY SAME STATS?.........it goes back to the nature of stats being highly manipulative and interpretive to prove one's point....I don't care if your PERSONAL stats are ugly as hell...as long as you get the "W", I'll take ugly every Sunday...and 10 works for starters.............

Edited by OldTimeAFLGuy
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Going entire quarters without a first down are not drive killers, they are season killers.

 

That's all the opposing coach has to do. Keep a lid on the Bills, knowing that when he wants to, he can get a half of dozen three and outs, and then game over. Same thing happened to Bledsoe.

You are entitled to your opinion

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Going entire quarters without a first down are not drive killers, they are season killers.

 

That's all the opposing coach has to do. Keep a lid on the Bills, knowing that when he wants to, he can get a half of dozen three and outs, and then game over. Same thing happened to Bledsoe.

 

 

say it ain't so...

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Going entire quarters without a first down are not drive killers, they are season killers.

 

That's all the opposing coach has to do. Keep a lid on the Bills, knowing that when he wants to, he can get a half of dozen three and outs, and then game over. Same thing happened to Bledsoe.

????

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Not painting everyone with the same two brushes, but reading this thread and the many others like it, a few things are apparent for the most part:

 

Pro-Tyrod fans: detailed, reasoned posts with actual data and intelligent discourse

 

Anti-Tyrod fans: short posts with spelling mistakes full of "count the rings, bro" counterarguments

 

Tyrod is good. And seriously underrated among his own fan base. This team has gone so long with monkey turds behind center that it's hard for some to recognize competence.

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Not painting everyone with the same two brushes, but reading this thread and the many others like it, a few things are apparent for the most part:

 

Pro-Tyrod fans: detailed, reasoned posts with actual data and intelligent discourse

 

Anti-Tyrod fans: short posts with spelling mistakes full of "count the rings, bro" counterarguments

 

Tyrod is good. And seriously underrated among his own fan base. This team has gone so long with monkey turds behind center that it's hard for some to recognize competence.

 

Plus, Taylor has a Super Bowl ring. Not that it bears much on the argument regarding him being a capable starting QB for the Bills. But it's a fact.

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The best shot the bills have is Cardale Jones. I know the Media bashes him but he doesn't get the reps to compete. If he did things would be different. He played one quarter now he is not ready.

CJ is a lot better than what people think but he is being judge on reps with 3rd stringers.

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The best shot the bills have is Cardale Jones. I know the Media bashes him but he doesn't get the reps to compete. If he did things would be different. He played one quarter now he is not ready.

CJ is a lot better than what people think but he is being judge on reps with 3rd stringers.

I like Cardale as much most people here but the gap between Tyrod and Cardale (or any QB on the roster) is massive. Cardale has a chance IMO but he's not close to there. He needs to take a step in camp though or he won't mke it to the season on the Bills roster. Someone will take a chance on him though.
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CJ is just a gamer... Pocket poise, can actually throw the ball, has a rocket arm, 6'4", can run. Could lead a rally. Unlike Taylor, which always chokes when the team needs him most.

Taylor has shown he cannot convert in clutch time. Doesn't have it in him like that.

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CJ is just a gamer... Pocket poise, can actually throw the ball, has a rocket arm, 6'4", can run. Could lead a rally. Unlike Taylor, which always chokes when the team needs him most.

Sometimes I just like talking with the trolls. I've seen every snap Cardale has taken in college and the NFL. He's a gamer but he is about 4 miles from where Tyrod is now. The only chance that Peterman or Cardale has of ever getting a chance is an injury to Tyrod. He's either the QB after 2017 or whoever they take in the 1st round next year will be that guy. There isn't a path for anyone else outside of an injury.
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How do you say that? CJ has not had the chance with the first group. Except a quarter if that. They said the same about Dak in Dallas... They gave him a shot and now who is retiring. He deserves the shot. That is why we loose. We let go of talented players because we don't give them the right shot or fail to keep them.

If he becomes a franchise elsewhere this organization should just shoot itself. I know CJ is going to be a great one.

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How do you say that? CJ has not had the chance with the first group. Except a quarter if that. They said the same about Dak in Dallas... They gave him a shot and now who is retiring. He deserves the shot. That is why we loose. We let go of talented players because we don't give them the right shot or fail to keep them.

Because I hear what's happening in practice. I see what's happening in games. I don't know if you are being serious or not but there isn't one person in that building, not a coach, scout, or player that believes anyone but Tyrod should be the QB in 2017. There isn't a competition for the spot. They were confident enough in him that they brought him back and then didn't draft a guy early. He has this year to prove whether or not he will be the long-term answer. If he doesn't prove that the Bills will be investing, early, on a QB. There isn't a path for anyone else and it's not because they are being held back. They aren't on his level (or even close from what I've heard of the offseason).
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Happy - we will have to disagree about that. If you look at absolute numbers of course being under pressure makes a DVOA go way down. The DVOA is affected by negative plays and it is very hard to take a sack when you are not under pressure. So the biggest negative play with no pressure is an Int and these are professionals the number of Ints should go up with pressure.

 

The number of positive plays should also go down under pressure, but for TT they did not. His TD % per attempt goes up when he is under pressure. He threw more TDs under pressure in fewer attempts than when not under pressure.

 

In addition - as we already knew his athletic nature allowed him to avoid sacks and escape the pocket and scramble for first downs - one of his major positives as a QB. Therefore we know he avoided a number of sacks and his unique athletic ability allowed him to convert first downs that his QB ability would not have converted.

 

If Tyrod is left alone in the pocket and allowed to scan the field his DVOA is higher only because you eliminate the sack. His overall play as how he compares to other QBs in that situation drops from nearly the best to middle of the pack. It is why teams like Baltimore and the Jets talk about keeping him in the pocket and making him beat you as a QB.

 

They are not afraid of how he plays as a QB throwing the ball from the pocket because in those situations he is average and much less likely to make a big play - either a long scramble or a TD pass than he is when you get pressure and he escapes the pocket and throws on the run or takes off with your DBs in man coverage.

 

My main point being that these numbers presented make sense in the context of what we already knew about TT. They do not make me think the offense was better - they confirm what we knew. We knew that under pressure TT does a nice job of escaping pressure and making a positive play - that is one of his best attributes.

 

What we need to see going forward is can he translate that playmaking ability to times he is not under pressure. Can he get his DVOA without pressure above the top 10 while still keeping his under pressure DVOA higher. Over 60% of the time there is not pressure on the QB and getting that DVOA up into the top 10 makes you a better QB and those are the areas he is average and why we as a fan base are split.

 

The takeaway that I have and why I am ready to move on is that if we had to face a TT lead team and he was not on the Bills - that is a game I am thinking I can win. It is the same reason fan bases in places like Miami are split- you can do worse that either of those guys, but neither are the answer. They are the placeholders until you find the answer and maybe they get hot and you make a playoff run, but long term they are not the answer you need to win consistently in this league.

Good posting

 

Playing more effectively under pressure could be the result of catching a better glimpse of the field after being flushed outside the pocket in my humble opinion.

 

Harbaugh knowing Taylors weakneses of course is going to exploit them.

Edited by Figster
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Taylor has been in the league 6 years I do not care what talent you put around him he cannot beat the Patriots period. He's had plenty of chances. He cannot have the pocket presence required to be successful. Once they make him a passer it's over. Cardale would make them pay with his arm.

If the staff is smart they would keep Cardale as primary back up. Ready to play him this year because there is no excuses for TT. This year. Absolutely none. Running back, receivers tight ends. We arrived at the " show me " state.

We loose 3 out of 5 it should be over for Taylor. How many excuses can we come up with. This is probably not high school. Belechick would have already cut him. To many Chances with to many excuses he can't hit a 4 yard completion for a first down to win the game.

Taylor will choke trust me. We will see the results. He has not showed me the heart of a champion. Cardale has. Jim Trussel knew what he had. They benched CJ and they did not win. There goes the Guru who decided to bench him.

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Taylor has been in the league 6 years I do not care what talent you put around him he cannot beat the Patriots period. He's had plenty of chances. He cannot have the pocket presence required to be successful. Once they make him a passer it's over. Cardale would make them pay with his arm.

If the staff is smart they would keep Cardale as primary back up. Ready to play him this year because there is no excuses for TT. This year. Absolutely none. Running back, receivers tight ends. We arrived at the " show me " state.

We loose 3 out of 5 it should be over for Taylor. How many excuses can we come up with. This is probably not high school. Belechick would have already cut him. To many Chances with to many excuses he can't hit a 4 yard completion for a first down to win the game.

Taylor will choke trust me. We will see the results. He has not showed me the heart of a champion. Cardale has. Jim Trussel knew what he had. They benched CJ and they did not win. There goes the Guru who decided to bench him.

 

Man, those 75 noogies left a mark.

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We are gonna let a good player walk without giving him a fair shot. Taylor might be a good person but this is business. CJ is a better football player.

We'll see. Cardale will prevail if the shot is there. This reminds me of Flutie and Doug Johnson era. They gave Johnson every opportunity no what.

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