QB comparative data for Tyrod from Cian Fahey to discuss

[HappyDays]

Thanks for posting the data Transplant, and for reminding me I need to pick up that catalogue.

[BringBackOrton]

Here's what the OP said about how Fahey goes about his work:

 

"The focus is on the actual level of play of a QB on the field by attributing credit and/or blame for individual things the QB almost always gets credit (i.e.:completion %) or blame (i.e.:interceptions, sacks) for. Fahey acknowledges the inevitable subjectivity involved, but uses the same subjective criteria to chart 33 NFL QBs and every single one of their snaps. So it's pretty evenly subjective, at least."

 

That sounds a lot different than, "I know an NFL QB when I see one."

 

As to your comment about WRs and low YAC, I acknowledged that it is probably attributable to multiple factors, but the one thing that is UNLIKELY to be causing it is Tyrod's inaccuracy, since he ranks fairly high in most measures of accuracy.

 

I disagree.

 

And Fahey basically watches every catch and says "that one was the QB's/WR's fault." Which is the eye test. Not sure why that makes his subjective analysis better than mine.

 

 

I agree YAC does need to improve...however thats also a result of the plays being called, the WR's, etc, not just all on TT. It will help TT when our WR's don't fall all the time (Woods - worst feet on a WR I have ever seen), are out hurt (Sammy, Harvin, Goodwin, Woods are perennially hurt or dinged up), guys don't dog out routes (Clay, Goodwin, etc) or when they aren't just a bunch of scrubs on the field due to injuries.

 

And more importantly, the new coaching staff and Dennison hopefully puts him in a better system too. While there were times I liked what our OC was doing, there were others where I wanted to break my TV on the dumb calls and stupid play designs.

It's not all on TT, but it is a huge part on TT and by far the weakest aspect of his game.

 

I don't see a lot of receivers on this team dogging out routes, but you aren't getting YAC when you're catching a 7 yard pass and stepping OOB. And TT relies on sideline routes far too much.

[mannc]

 

And I'm not asking this to be condescending, I'm legitimately asking: did you watch the 1992 comeback win?? If you did, fair enough once again we disagree - if you did not, then you should watch it from start to finish. Because I can tell you, the momentum swing in that game was entirely real and relevant. Now, could it simply be the psychological manner in which momentum manifests itself into confidence - of course - but it doesn't change the significant at all. You'll tell me it's one game, but seeing the Bills all these years on the reverse side of that pendulum, doesn't negate it's truth either - just the taste is a bit saltier.

Yes, I watched that game start to finish in 1992 and I've watched it several times since then. Momentum may exist, but fear of losing momentum should not be a factor in making decisions about, for example, whether to go for it on 4th and 1.

 

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/03/120315105900.htm

[transplantbillsfan]

Confirmation bias. Seeking evidence that supports your current belief.

That's the one. Thanks!

[Big Gun]

 

I agree YAC does need to improve...however thats also a result of the plays being called, the WR's, etc, not just all on TT. It will help TT when our WR's don't fall all the time (Woods - worst feet on a WR I have ever seen), are out hurt (Sammy, Harvin, Goodwin, Woods are perennially hurt or dinged up), guys don't dog out routes (Clay, Goodwin, etc) or when they aren't just a bunch of scrubs on the field due to injuries.

 

And more importantly, the new coaching staff and Dennison hopefully puts him in a better system too. While there were times I liked what our OC was doing, there were others where I wanted to break my TV on the dumb calls and stupid play designs.

Those same plays that had WR and TE running free all over the field week in and week out? Those plays?

[thunderingsquid]

He probably doesn't run numbers on college QBs but I would love to see these stats on Peterman.

[Blokestradamus]

He probably doesn't run numbers on college QBs but I would love to see these stats on Peterman.

 

Cian doesn't really do a great deal of CFB work and didn't watch a second of Peterman.

 

Also, harder to get All-22 footage for CFB, which may make the work slightly less effective.

[BigBuff423]

Yes, I watched that game start to finish in 1992 and I've watched it several times since then. Momentum may exist, but fear of losing momentum should not be a factor in making decisions about, for example, whether to go for it on 4th and 1.

 

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/03/120315105900.htm

 

We agree on that point; I was merely stating that the ability to harness momentum and utilize it to your advantage, is not a quantifiable metric therefore, it requires an "eye test" when evaluating QBs. Because, unlike any other position in football the QB controls the momentum so much more than any other position, and his decisions make or break your Offense. It's the heart of this issue that I raise the question about how much the metrics / analytics play a role in evaluating a QB. I'm not saying that information isn't useful or that it shouldn't augment your evaluation, merely indicating that so often metrics / measurable / analytics, don't predict very well how a QB will do in the NFL because it's the IMMEASURABLES that comprise a vast amount of QB ability.

[Alphadawg7]

Those same plays that had WR and TE running free all over the field week in and week out? Those plays?

 

What you just posted and what the comment was on don't have anything in common. The question is about the YAC, not if TT didnt see someone open. So theres that for starters.

 

Second, the BIGGEST thing you and other constant TT bashers fail to realize is that you GROSSLY under estimate TRUST a QB has in his WR's, and that is heavily magnified when a QB is dangerous with his legs. TT biggest problem is he pulls the ball down to quick and then doesn't see open guys. And this happens BEFORE he actually physically pulls the ball down. When a guy like Taylor who is a true dual threat with his legs is looking downfield, he is also surveying the field for opportunities to make a play with his legs. And Rex and Company encouraged him to do that, it was one of the things they were most enamored with in regards to Taylor.

 

Now you have a QB working with WR's who are not very good and in many cases and for the most part he had little to no rapport with as we constantly fielded backups and guys off the street due to unfortunate injuries. When his initial reads aren't there its easy for him to start looking for plays with his legs, which he made a lot of, in conjunction with also trying to see the field. When you don't know your WR's well, or trust them, the mind will go quicker into looking for a running lane. Now when you watch TT with a healthy Sammy over the final 9 games of 2015 after the Bye when Sammy was finally healthy, TT made more plays down field, took more shots, was more patient. He clearly, without a doubt, has more trust and confidence in Sammy and that helped make Sammy one of the most productive WR's in the NFL over that 9 game stretch.

 

So, yes he absolutely has to see the field better, and that starts with trust in his WR groups and hopefully having our best players on the field. Instinct is a hard thing to over come, and without trusting the routes and the WR's, his instinct is going to come in to make a play with his feet.

 

The biggest flaws in TT game are all correctable which is why I don't get why people are prepared to just decide he can't improve. Doesn't mean he will, but TT went through a lot here in 2 years and still led us to a ton of points and made a lot of plays and won us some games. From inept staff, OC firing in week 2, injuries to his only skill players, injuries to himself, injuries on the OL, etc.

 

PS: TT is our QB this year...at some point I wonder when people will become Bills fans again and just root for the kid to succeed? There is no value in railing against him now, draft is over, he was resigned...and we are armed with TWO first round picks next year to get a QB if TT falters this year...so you are basically FREE ROLLING right now, enjoy the ride and hope the kid continues to improve.

 

GO BILLS

[SDS]

 

And I'm not asking this to be condescending, I'm legitimately asking: did you watch the 1992 comeback win?? If you did, fair enough once again we disagree - if you did not, then you should watch it from start to finish. Because I can tell you, the momentum swing in that game was entirely real and relevant. Now, could it simply be the psychological manner in which momentum manifests itself into confidence - of course - but it doesn't change the significant at all. You'll tell me it's one game, but seeing the Bills all these years on the reverse side of that pendulum, doesn't negate it's truth either - just the taste is a bit saltier.

It's better to just say you didn't like math and science in school.

 

"Momentum" is a term stolen from science to stand as a proxy for one team is outplaying the other or random events are breaking one team's way over the other. Teams have this fictitious momentum all the way up to the point they don't. Then a miraculous thing occurs! The other team now has it! Oh no!

 

Houston had all of this fictitious momentum, up until the point they stopped playing better than the Bills. This fictitious quantity also led to Don Beebe stepping out of bounds and not getting called on a TD catch. And once the Bills captured the lead - do you know what happened? Houston turned around and tied the game. So much for that momentum. 👎👎👎

 

Momentum. Just an awful fictitious entity to defend.

[Domdab99]

It's better to just say you didn't like math and science in school.

 

"Momentum" is a term stolen from science to stand as a proxy for one team is outplaying the other or random events are breaking one team's way over the other. Teams have this fictitious momentum all the way up to the point they don't. Then a miraculous thing occurs! The other team now has it! Oh no!

 

Houston had all of this fictitious momentum, up until the point they stopped playing better than the Bills. This fictitious quantity also led to Don Beebe stepping out of bounds and not getting called on a TD catch. And once the Bills captured the lead - do you know what happened? Houston turned around and tied the game. So much for that momentum.

 

Momentum. Just an awful fictitious entity to defend.

 

 

<golf clap>

 

Thank god there are sane people on this board. I was beginning to wonder.

[Wayne Arnold]

 

The biggest flaws in TT game are all correctable which is why I don't get why people are prepared to just decide he can't improve. Doesn't mean he will, but TT went through a lot here in 2 years and still led us to a ton of points and made a lot of plays and won us some games. From inept staff, OC firing in week 2, injuries to his only skill players, injuries to himself, injuries on the OL, etc.

 

I like Taylor but his biggest flaws are progression speed and pocket awareness. This is why he led the league in sacks last year. And those are not correctable - they're God-given.

[Crusher]

I just have to laugh every time I see one of these threads.

 

Taylor's stats are acquired by a simplified system that requires very little in terms of making reads, checking in and out of plays, and anticipating throws. It's simply fools gold to tout the numbers that he ranks well in.

 

When you watch the guy play, nothing you see would lead you to believe he's anything but a guy who looks to play it safe and use his athleticism to make plays. Nothing wrong with that, as that's what works best for him, but It doesn't mean he's a good QB. He's good at making the occasional play and protecting the football. It hasn't been good enough, and I don't believe this will change.

 

Hopefully, this season settles this debate.

[transplantbillsfan]

Some questions I have below in bold

 

Interceptable Pass % was 3rd best

 

Interceptable Passes caught by Defense was 6th most... in other words, the defenders didn't drop INTs very much for Taylor in comparison to his peers.

 

For explanations of Accuracy % buy the catalogue because he spends a chapter explaining how he assesses each thing. Like for example, he discards batted passes at the line and obvious throwaways in the passes he charts. Like I said, there's subjectivity and his numbers aren't absolutely perfect because of that subjectivity, but the same criteria was used for all 33 QBs, according to him.

 

Accuracy % behind LOS means accuracy on passes to WRs behind the LOS, not where he threw the football.

 

I think you're insight into the % of throws up to 10 yards being so low beyond the LOS is really interesting.

 

Failed Reception % is 4th highest, meaning Taylor's WRs were at fault for the 4th most incompletions by % of total throws the QB throws in 2016.

[Big Gun]

 

What you just posted and what the comment was on don't have anything in common. The question is about the YAC, not if TT didnt see someone open. So theres that for starters.

 

Second, the BIGGEST thing you and other constant TT bashers fail to realize is that you GROSSLY under estimate TRUST a QB has in his WR's, and that is heavily magnified when a QB is dangerous with his legs. TT biggest problem is he pulls the ball down to quick and then doesn't see open guys. And this happens BEFORE he actually physically pulls the ball down. When a guy like Taylor who is a true dual threat with his legs is looking downfield, he is also surveying the field for opportunities to make a play with his legs. And Rex and Company encouraged him to do that, it was one of the things they were most enamored with in regards to Taylor.

 

Now you have a QB working with WR's who are not very good and in many cases and for the most part he had little to no rapport with as we constantly fielded backups and guys off the street due to unfortunate injuries. When his initial reads aren't there its easy for him to start looking for plays with his legs, which he made a lot of, in conjunction with also trying to see the field. When you don't know your WR's well, or trust them, the mind will go quicker into looking for a running lane. Now when you watch TT with a healthy Sammy over the final 9 games of 2015 after the Bye when Sammy was finally healthy, TT made more plays down field, took more shots, was more patient. He clearly, without a doubt, has more trust and confidence in Sammy and that helped make Sammy one of the most productive WR's in the NFL over that 9 game stretch.

 

So, yes he absolutely has to see the field better, and that starts with trust in his WR groups and hopefully having our best players on the field. Instinct is a hard thing to over come, and without trusting the routes and the WR's, his instinct is going to come in to make a play with his feet.

 

The biggest flaws in TT game are all correctable which is why I don't get why people are prepared to just decide he can't improve. Doesn't mean he will, but TT went through a lot here in 2 years and still led us to a ton of points and made a lot of plays and won us some games. From inept staff, OC firing in week 2, injuries to his only skill players, injuries to himself, injuries on the OL, etc.

 

PS: TT is our QB this year...at some point I wonder when people will become Bills fans again and just root for the kid to succeed? There is no value in railing against him now, draft is over, he was resigned...and we are armed with TWO first round picks next year to get a QB if TT falters this year...so you are basically FREE ROLLING right now, enjoy the ride and hope the kid continues to improve.

 

GO BILLS

Would there not be YAC if he throws to open guys?

[QB Bills]

I imagine if Tyrod was about 4 inches taller, a few pounds heavier and white, we'd see a lot less of these "he just doesn't pass the eye test" nonsensical posts.

 

He's good. An unbiased observer can see it, and the numbers support it.

[transplantbillsfan]

Another transplant about Tyrod. This should be an exciting rollercoaster.

 

I still say he's nothing more than a decent stop gap.

 

It's the 2nd thread I've started in 2 months as a member here.

 

Yes, both have been about Taylor. Sorry about that. Not likely to start another thread for a while.

 

Pretty sure this brings in new, different stuff. And it's just me pulling stuff from a source not everyone will have access to for discussion.

 

Sorry that offends you so much...

[MarkyMannn]

Confirmation bias. Seeking evidence that supports your current belief.

 

 

I believe it's called "confirmation bias". The person accepts data that confirms their belief and rejects data or sources that might cause them to reassess or question their belief.

 

 

I believe the technical term is douche baggery.

Yes you are correct but 4mer nailed it better

[transplantbillsfan]

TT's accuracy gives them no chance at YAC, on the whole.

 

This is incredibly untrue.

 

Without referring to the fact that Fahey's accuracy % is about how accurate passes are, not whether they are completions or not, I can say this pretty confidently myself because I actually spent time going through a good number of TT's games myself to find how many of his passes negated YAC. That number was very, very low.

 

 

This is just one of those blanket statements that lacks insight and is simply "torch and pitchfork" material.

[BigBuff423]

It's better to just say you didn't like math and science in school.

 

"Momentum" is a term stolen from science to stand as a proxy for one team is outplaying the other or random events are breaking one team's way over the other. Teams have this fictitious momentum all the way up to the point they don't. Then a miraculous thing occurs! The other team now has it! Oh no!

 

Houston had all of this fictitious momentum, up until the point they stopped playing better than the Bills. This fictitious quantity also led to Don Beebe stepping out of bounds and not getting called on a TD catch. And once the Bills captured the lead - do you know what happened? Houston turned around and tied the game. So much for that momentum.

 

Momentum. Just an awful fictitious entity to defend.

 

In all due respect, I strongly disagree.

 

Also, I don't think it's a fair conclusion to state, "you didn't like math and science in school", since that seems to be a condescending tone that I intentionally tried to avoid. I know your stature with this board and appreciate the work you've put in to make this a wonderful place to discuss Bills football, but I don't think that gives you a pass for the tenor of your dissent.

Edited May 1, 2017 by BigBuff423