Offseason strategies to improve the Bills

[simpleman]

Do not pick up TT option. Use that 13 million toward resigning our selected FA and new FA. It is obvious to most that TT is strictly a bridge QB. He is not worth 27 + million in guarantees which will restrict the team’s growth due to cap restrictions for the next 2-3 years.

$35 million cap-

$5 million to sign draft picks.

$30 million

 

Does Henderson count against cap while suspended for first 5 games? If not, we have an extra 1.8 million to play with until possible post June 1^st cut savings.

 

Ricky Wagner - $7 million, or another quality RT like Reiff. O-line is now top 5 in the league for the next few years.

Let Woods & Gilmore go. While both are very good players, neither is worth what they will be able to get somewhere else. Woods is good, but just not worth what some team will be willing to pay for him. WR – 6-7 cap. Get a similar replacement and save a few million to try to resign Douzable & Bryant without overpaying. Gilmore wants top 5 dollars while being a top 15 CB. Get someone who will play for top 20 dollars and who is actually top 20. Replace with mid level CB 7-8 million. This uses up the TT savings and some other free cap.

As much as I have liked Graham as a player, $5.5 million is too much for him as he is showing his age. Use the $ 4 million cap for an upgrade for a FA S. Even Byrd or McKelvin would be fine at the right price. If there is money left from the $4 million at S, use it toward some vet depth at S.

Get McCarron from the Bengals for a 5^th, which is where they got him. They had him for 4 years of use and they get their 5^th back. We use the extra 5^th we got in the Cassel trade. In the last year of his contract, the Bengals would like to get something out of him this year before he is a FA. His contract is a paltry $735,000. A perfect bridge QB, who even has a possibility to pleasantly surprise us with his play. 2015-16 Stats 97.1 QB 66.4 CMP%, 854 yards. Started 4 games. Has played in 9 total regular season games.

Look for an upgrade for Carpenter if the staff feels one is available near his $3 million cap price. Look for undrafted kickers after draft.

We just spent high picks last year on LB & Dline with Lawson & Ragland, so let’s give them a chance. If you can resign Brown at a fair price, do so, otherwise let him walk. Look for a reasonably priced FA at LB to fit our new coach’s scheme if we can’t afford to bring back Z Brown at a reasonable price.

Try to resign Lorax, but only at the right price. Not sure he is going to be reasonable for our cap for what he may get elsewhere. Resign Felton, he already is costing us 1.5 in dead cap and is a good tool for McCoy and our run game. Tender a qualifying offer for Groy & Gillislee. Resign them if reasonable.

Try to bring back Hunter, Tate, White if at an affordable cap price. All should be. All are decent, while not game changers.

If Groy is resigned, depending on the need for cap space, it would be up to the coaches and front office to decide if Wood is expendable at a cap savings of 4.5 Million this year post June 1^st cut.

If Easley is not ready to go and looking 100% by then, cut him post June 1^st and free up another 1.5 million this year for signing other post June cuts for depth at positions of need. One of the things our GM has been good at is dumpster diving, so let him do what he has been good at.

 

Draft:

 

One of the 2 WR in the 1^st at 10

Draft Mahomes or available top 5 QB in the 2^nd.

Pick up a S in the 3^rd if a good value there, or BPA at need

BPA at need with the 5^th

Pick up Kelly or BPA at need in the 6^th.

 

Alternate trade down in 1st- get extra picks

 

Grab Mahomes or other top 5 QB, or 1 of top 2 WR (although unlikely either WR will still be available with late 1^st.)

 

Grab available top 5 QB with the 2nd, if we have not already selected Mahomes or other top 5 QB in the 1st. If not QB, grab BPA at S^.

 

Grab Kupp or other BPA WR with extra late 2^nd pick

 

BPA at need CB, WR, S in 3^rd, 5^th.

 

Kelly or BPA at need in the 6^th

 

Start bridge QB, allow developing QBs the opportunity to prove themselves during the season if the game is either safely put away late in the game, or we are so far out of it, it will not matter. If the staff feels either are ready enough to try.

 

I don’t see us advancing in the playoffs with or without TT. If we somehow beat the odds and make the wildcard, I don’t see us advancing. At absolute best I see TT meaning a 1-2 game difference in wins. So why waste cap on him. Even if it costs 2 games without him, we gain back a better draft position to get our Franchise QB next year in a projected good QB year.

Edited February 16, 2017 by simpleman

[PaattMaann]

Ryan Groy, not Goy

 

Overall it seems like a reasonable plan, however, its easy to say "sign so and so, mid level replacement" while jettisoning our guys. I'm just not sure those "cheaper" guys are out there in abundance at all of those positions.

 

We need to spend resources (money and draft) on safety this offseason....and agreed a real upgrade at RT will do wonders with the line, running game and passing game

[ndirish1978]

There's a comma in the wrong place in the original post. I won't spoil it for you by telling you where, but it's there.

[Hot Buffalo Wings]

Draft RT in the 1st. WR via free agency.

[simpleman]

Ryan Groy, not Goy

 

Overall it seems like a reasonable plan, however, its easy to say "sign so and so, mid level replacement" while jettisoning our guys. I'm just not sure those "cheaper" guys are out there in abundance at all of those positions.

 

We need to spend resources (money and draft) on safety this offseason....and agreed a real upgrade at RT will do wonders with the line, running game and passing game

Thank you for correcting my misspelling.

[simpleman]

Ryan Groy, not Goy

 

Overall it seems like a reasonable plan, however, its easy to say "sign so and so, mid level replacement" while jettisoning our guys. I'm just not sure those "cheaper" guys are out there in abundance at all of those positions.

 

We need to spend resources (money and draft) on safety this offseason....and agreed a real upgrade at RT will do wonders with the line, running game and passing game

If spending 6-7 million for a WR, they will definitely be out there.

 

http://walterfootball.com/freeagents2017WR.php

 

Your options for the others:

 

http://walterfootball.com/freeagents.php?ti

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/cornerbacks-buffalo-bills-could-sign-162205431.html

Edited February 15, 2017 by simpleman

[GunnerBill]

Draft RT in the 1st. WR via free agency.

 

There is no RT worth taking in the 1st.

[8-8 Forever?]

what a joke. all of this costs them "2 games"? If your strategy is followed, they will struggle to get to 4 wins. They blew it up, remember? Could have stuck with A Lynn and the Jax HC as DC. but NO, they had to blow it all up and start all over. again.

 

you're debating positional needs and micro surgery when the unconscious body is on the table with limbs missing. and the Pats run the hospital.

[Rico]

Off-season Realities:

1. Whether he stays or he goes, TT is at best a bridge QB.

2. Lil Doug is the last person you want looking for the next QB.

 

End Results:

18 and counting. Counting for as long as Lil Doug will stick Cardale/his newest stiff down the HC's throat.

[8-8 Forever?]

Off-season Realities:

1. Whether he stays or he goes, TT is at best a bridge QB.

2. Lil Doug is the last person you want looking for the next QB.

 

End Results:

18 and counting. Counting for as long as Lil Doug will stick Cardale/his newest stiff down the HC's throat.

i think this season is unique in that there is no hope at all now... last year it was TT the undisputed starter, Shaq coming in, Cogs and Glenn signed... full roster, etc etc. second year in the schemes, etc etc.. it all looked really optimistic... now there is absolutely none of that.. all looks dark; complete restart, roster purge coming... someone tell me why long time Bills fans shouldn't just pack it up for a few years?

[Kirby Jackson]

Draft RT in the 1st. WR via free agency.

No value there.

Do not pick up TT option. Use that 13 million toward resigning our selected FA and new FA. It is obvious to most that TT is strictly a bridge QB. He is not worth 27 + million in guarantees which will restrict the teams growth due to cap restrictions for the next 2-3 years.

$35 million cap-

$5 million to sign draft picks.

$30 million

 

Does Henderson count against cap while suspended for first 5 games? If not, we have an extra 1.8 million to play with until possible post June 1^st cut savings.

 

Ricky Wagner - $7 million, or another quality RT like Reiff. O-line is now top 5 in the league for the next few years.

Let Woods & Gilmore go. While both are very good players, neither is worth what they will be able to get somewhere else. Woods is good, but just not worth what some team will be willing to pay for him. WR 6-7 cap. Get a similar replacement and save a few million to try to resign Douzable & Bryant without overpaying. Gilmore wants top 5 dollars while being a top 15 CB. Get someone who will play for top 20 dollars and who is actually top 20. Replace with mid level CB 7-8 million. This uses up the TT savings and some other free cap.

As much as I have liked Graham as a player, $5.5 million is too much for him as he is showing his age. Use the $ 4 million cap for an upgrade for a FA S. Even Byrd or McKelvin would be fine at the right price. If there is money left from the $4 million at S, use it toward some vet depth at S.

Get McCarron from the Bengals for a 5^th, which is where they got him. They had him for 4 years of use and they get their 5^th back. We use the extra 5^th we got in the Cassel trade. In the last year of his contract, the Bengals would like to get something out of him this year before he is a FA. His contract is a paltry $735,000. A perfect bridge QB, who even has a possibility to pleasantly surprise us with his play. 2015-16 Stats 97.1 QB 66.4 CMP%, 854 yards. Started 4 games. Has played in 9 total regular season games.

Look for an upgrade for Carpenter if the staff feels one is available near his $3 million cap price. Look for undrafted kickers after draft.

We just spent high picks last year on LB & Dline with Lawson & Ragland, so lets give them a chance. If you can resign Brown at a fair price, do so, otherwise let him walk. Look for a reasonably priced FA at LB to fit our new coachs scheme if we cant afford to bring back Z Brown at a reasonable price.

Try to resign Lorax, but only at the right price. Not sure he is going to be reasonable for our cap for what he may get elsewhere. Resign Felton, he already is costing us 1.5 in dead cap and is a good tool for McCoy and our run game. Tender a qualifying offer for Groy & Gillislee. Resign them if reasonable.

Try to bring back Hunter, Tate, White if at an affordable cap price. All should be. All are decent, while not game changers.

If Groy is resigned, depending on the need for cap space, it would be up to the coaches and front office to decide if Wood is expendable at a cap savings of 4.5 Million this year post June 1^st cut.

If Easley is not ready to go and looking 100% by then, cut him post June 1^st and free up another 1.5 million this year for signing other post June cuts for depth at positions of need. One of the things our GM has been good at is dumpster diving, so let him do what he has been good at.

 

Draft:

 

One of the 2 WR in the 1^st at 10

Draft Mahomes or available top 5 QB in the 2^nd.

Pick up a S in the 3^rd if a good value there, or BPA at need

BPA at need with the 5^th

Pick up Kelly or BPA at need in the 6^th.

 

Alternate trade down in 1st- get extra picks

 

Grab Mahomes or other top 5 QB, or 1 of top 2 WR (although unlikely either WR will still be available with late 1^st.)

 

Grab available top 5 QB, if not already Mahomes in the 1st with the 2^nd. If no QB, grab BPA at S^.

 

Grab Kupp or other BPA WR with extra late 2^nd pick

 

BPA at need CB, WR, S in 3^rd, 5^th.

 

Kelly or BPA at need in the 6^th

 

Start bridge QB, allow developing QBs the opportunity to prove themselves during the season if the game is either safely put away late in the game, or we are so far out of it, it will not matter. If the staff feels either are ready enough to try.

 

I dont see us advancing in the playoffs with or without TT. If we somehow beat the odds and make the wildcard, I dont see us advancing. At absolute best I see TT meaning a 1-2 game difference in wins. So why waste cap on him. Even if it costs 2 games without him, we gain back a better draft position to get our Franchise QB next year in a projected good QB year.

I don't see a scenario where 3 of their 6 draft picks are used on QBs.

[jeffismagic]

No value there.

 

Bad draft for tackles.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

Bad draft for tackles.

It really is. It's the worst that I can remember.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

I say sign a RT who was cut recently, and focus on cap casualties. Would liek to see some solid 2018 comp picks for losing gilmore, brown, woods, and lorax.

[PromoTheRobot]

Vic Carucci suggests improve the team by releasing all their good players.

 

https://buffalonews.com/2017/02/13/bills-look-plenty-opportunity-clear-cap-space/

[simpleman]

No value there.

I don't see a scenario where 3 of their 6 draft picks are used on QBs.

I didn't say 3. Please reread, as an alternative with trade down, I said a Mahomes in 2nd if not selected with the late first, maybe I should have edited it to say Mahomes or other top 5 QB. I reworded it to clarify my meaning..

Using a 6th on Kelly is not like you are wasting a valuable pick, and I said Kelly or BPA at need. I see Kelly as more of a PR move to sell tickets than an on field move. We all know that for the Bills, PR moves rule. Look at Rex Ryan, his selection was more of a smart PR move than an intelligent football decision.

I say sign a RT who was cut recently, and focus on cap casualties. Would liek to see some solid 2018 comp picks for losing gilmore, brown, woods, and lorax.

In other words, double down on dumpster diving.

Edited February 16, 2017 by simpleman

[Kirby Jackson]

I didn't say 3. Please reread, as an alternative with trade down, I said a QB in 2nd if not selected with the late first.

Using a 6th on Kelly is not like you are wasting a valuable pick, and I said Kelly or BPA at need. I see Kelly as more of a PR move to sell tickets than a on field move. We all know that for the Bills, PR moves rule. Look at Rex Ryan, it was more of a smart PR move than an intelligent football decision.

I am reading it as a 5th on McCarron, a pick on Mahomes and 1 on Kelly. Am I missing something? If so, I apologize.

[simpleman]

I am reading it as a 5th on McCarron, a pick on Mahomes and 1 on Kelly. Am I missing something? If so, I apologize.

I see what you are saying. I guess I don't see it as all picks are equal. An extra 2nd late 5th pick and a 6th do not have a major value to me. They are total crap shoots. The real picks are rounds 1-4(if you hadn't wasted the 4th already). You usually expect to get a useful player in those spots. Late 5th, 6, 7 rounds you are closing your eyes and shooting in the direction of the target hoping to get someone useful. Personally I would not use a 6th on Kelly, but I think the attraction for the Bills would be the PR value in the Kelly name to the fans.

 

..5th round Draft Picks.........................6th round Draft Picks

 

Year 2015___RB Karlos Williams___________________LB Tony Steward

_____________________________________________TE Nick O'Leary

 

Year 2014___OG Cyril Richardson__________________none

 

Year 2013___DB Jonathan Meeks__________________K Dustin Hopkins

 

Year 2012___OL Zebrie Sanders___________________OL Mark Asper

___________LB Tank Cader

 

Year 2011___RB Johnny White_____________________LB Chris White

 

Year 2010___OL Ed Wang_________________________LB Arthur Moats

 

Year 2009____LB Nic Harris________________________DB Cary Harris

 

Year 2008____LB Alvin Bowen______________________RB Xavier Omon

 

How valuable is the pick? No one jumps out at me and makes me say WOW! We really would have missed out on him.

 

http://boards.buffalobills.com/showthread.php?527526-Recent-History-of-Bills-5th-and-6th-Round-Draft-Picks-Keep-or-Trade

[Kirby Jackson]

I see what you are saying. I guess I don't see it as all picks are equal. An extra 2nd late 5th pick and a 6th do not have a major value to me. They are total crap shoots. The real picks are rounds 1-4(if you hadn't wasted the 4th already). You usually expect to get a useful player in those spots. Late 5th, 6, 7 rounds you are closing your eyes and shooting in the direction of the target hoping to get someone useful. Personally I would not use a 6th on Kelly, but I think the attraction for the Bills would be the PR value in the Kelly name to the fans.

 

..5th round Draft Picks.........................6th round Draft Picks

 

Year 2015___RB Karlos Williams___________________LB Tony Steward

_____________________________________________TE Nick O'Leary

 

Year 2014___OG Cyril Richardson__________________none

 

Year 2013___DB Jonathan Meeks__________________K Dustin Hopkins

 

Year 2012___OL Zebrie Sanders___________________OL Mark Asper

___________LB Tank Cader

 

Year 2011___RB Johnny White_____________________LB Chris White

 

Year 2010___OL Ed Wang_________________________LB Arthur Moats

 

Year 2009____LB Nic Harris________________________DB Cary Harris

 

Year 2008____LB Alvin Bowen______________________RB Xavier Omon

 

How valuable is the pick? No one jumps out at me and makes me say WOW! We really would have missed out on him.

 

http://boards.buffalobills.com/showthread.php?527526-Recent-History-of-Bills-5th-and-6th-Round-Draft-Picks-Keep-or-Trade

I agree that those picks are a longshot but I think the Bills have 23 UFAs. In the salary cap era you need those picks to fill out depth, ST and the back of your roster. You hope that you hit on some guys like it looks like with Seymour. You probably need all of your draft picks and a couple of undraftted rookies on your roster. I just don't see how you can use 3 picks on QB unless it is someone like Luck. There are just too many spots to fill.

[BillsVet]

Off-season Realities:

1. Whether he stays or he goes, TT is at best a bridge QB.

2. Lil Doug is the last person you want looking for the next QB.

 

End Results:

18 and counting. Counting for as long as Lil Doug will stick Cardale/his newest stiff down the HC's throat.

 

Lil Doug...

 

The roster is so thin, top heavy, and in need of serious improvement (QB, WR, OT, S, CB, LB, perhaps DT) that it shows the past 4 years have been DW spinning his wheels desperately trying to win now. Except they didn't win now.

 

But hey, that Jerry Hughes trade!

[ALF]

The last 2 seasons wasted and destroyed a good D .

 

New coaches will need at least 2 drafts to recover and find missing pieces . Trade down for needed extra picks.

 

Rex really set this team back

[simpleman]

I agree that those picks are a longshot but I think the Bills have 23 UFAs. In the salary cap era you need those picks to fill out depth, ST and the back of your roster. You hope that you hit on some guys like it looks like with Seymour. You probably need all of your draft picks and a couple of undraftted rookies on your roster. I just don't see how you can use 3 picks on QB unless it is someone like Luck. There are just too many spots to fill.

I understand your view, but i guess mine is that the difference between the 5-7 picks and undrafted rookies as far as the odds of being a longshot, are minimal at best. Most of those UFAs are just depth, filler. And the other fact is that many of those better players in those rounds would have been selected earlier, if it wasn't for red flags like off field issues. Like Karlos Williams, talented, great potential, great skills, but questions about off field issues. Most end up like him, but a very small percentage do rise above them. I guess those are the are the ones you hope for in the later rounds and why you value those picks so highly.

Players playing at or below the level of vet minimum. They will not make or break your team. Like a majority of the Bills free agents this year, they are not impact. I have never seen a study comparing the odds of getting outstanding talent in the upper rounds of the draft and as a UDFA, I would like to see one. Isn't that really what the theory behind moneyball is? I have seen such studies of higher rounds, but never later rounds.

Now this year is the exception for the Bills, since DW was exceptional at dumpster diving last year. Not sure if it was knowledge and skill, just the law of averages, the sheer volumes of dives, or just damn good luck. Groy, Brown, Lorax were all exceptions to a normal year. But there will be plenty of dumpster dives available this year and Undrafted Free Agents to fill out the depth and the back of the roster without worrying about needing those draft picks to do that. As have said repeatedly on this board over the past year, DW's greatest strength has been his ability to be very good at dumpster diving. I wish he was as good at picking out exceptional talent as he was as finding outstanding value at average or mediocre talent levels. We would be in the playoffs and he would be GM of the year every year.

Edited February 17, 2017 by simpleman

[iinii]

Off-season Realities:

1. Whether he stays or he goes, TT is at best a bridge QB.

2. Lil Doug is the last person you want looking for the next QB.

 

End Results:

18 and counting. Counting for as long as Lil Doug will stick Cardale/his newest stiff down the HC's throat.

Agreed. As long as Whaley is driving the bus, there won't be any rings or trophies. Whaley is the epitome of the saying that all it takes is one. As long as one person falls in love with a player that player has a job. Whaley doesn't have the patience or analytical nature to make good long term decisions. He just grabs at the low hanging fruit before someone else does. Edited February 17, 2017 by iinii

[Formerly Allan in MD]

i think this season is unique in that there is no hope at all now... last year it was TT the undisputed starter, Shaq coming in, Cogs and Glenn signed... full roster, etc etc. second year in the schemes, etc etc.. it all looked really optimistic... now there is absolutely none of that.. all looks dark; complete restart, roster purge coming... someone tell me why long time Bills fans shouldn't just pack it up for a few years?

Your hope last season was misplaced. Ryan was still the HC and his "double" (plus some weight and hair) was brought in to fix everything (right!). Long time Bills fans wouldn't be long time Bills fans if they weren't accustomed to suffering. So please don't pack it in; it may not help.

[CodeMonkey]

No need for an off season strategy. The Bills always win the off season. It's in season where they struggle

[Punching Bag]

i think this season is unique in that there is no hope at all now... last year it was TT the undisputed starter, Shaq coming in, Cogs and Glenn signed... full roster, etc etc. second year in the schemes, etc etc.. it all looked really optimistic... now there is absolutely none of that.. all looks dark; complete restart, roster purge coming... someone tell me why long time Bills fans shouldn't just pack it up for a few years?

 

I agree you should. Come back and post after we make playoffs.