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The Trump Economy


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More aid to replace lost trade! 

 

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/12/17/trump-farmers-trade-relief-usda-1067716

 

Quote

 

The Trump administration announced Monday a second and “final” round of trade aid for farmers and ranchers burned by retaliatory tariffs, including roughly $4.9 billion in additional direct payments for certain commodity producers.

The second batch of trade relief payments is President Donald Trump’s latest effort to stem the pain inflicted on U.S. agricultural producers by his trade feuds. But just as with the first round, commodity groups are complaining that the aid is not nearly enough to offset the damage from retaliatory duties.

 

 

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On 12/15/2018 at 7:07 AM, Benjamin Franklin said:

 

That underlined part is *****. 

 

It's quitting your job when you have bills to pay. Taking a pay cut and buying a Mercedes. 

 

If anything, what the Rs do is worse than what the Ds do. At least the Ds spend more AND raise your taxes. That strategy is f*cked too but it's not as long term f*cked as spending more and raising less.

 

The Rs are pathetic on finances.

 

There are several different versions of this quote.  I was looking for one from a roman politician but did not find it but this one has the same theme.

 

“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves money from the Public Treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidate promising the most benefits from the Public Treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy always followed by dictatorship.”
Alexander Fraser Tyler, “The Decline and Fall of the Athenian Republic”

      

There is no real difference between the R's and the D's.   One is a Mugger and one is a Thief.  One steals your money, the other beats you, and then steals your money.  I am not sure which party is which though.  Either way, they will get your money.

 

There is only one way this will end.   The government will either be overthrown or will declare bankruptcy.  Eventually the can cannot be kicked down the road any longer. 

     

On 12/15/2018 at 2:50 PM, DC Tom said:

 

Your plane crashing the first time you fly, rain on your wedding day, ten thousand spoons when all you need is a knife...

 

      

“Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself.”

Mark Twain

https://jim.com/liberquo.htm

A good collection of quotes.   When I saw the above I thought of you.

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7 minutes ago, Greybeard said:

  

“Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself.”

Mark Twain

https://jim.com/liberquo.htm

A good collection of quotes.   When I saw the above I thought of you.

 

Unsurprisingly.  He got that quote from me.

 

I know, it sounds unlikely, time travel and all.  But then...he got the idea for A Connecticut Yankee in King Arthur's Court from somewhere, didn't he?  WAKE UP, SHEEPLE!!!!!

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10 minutes ago, Greybeard said:

 

 

There is only one way this will end.   The government will either be overthrown or will declare bankruptcy.  Eventually the can cannot be kicked down the road any longer.

As long as US government debt is issued in US dollars, the supply of which is under the control of the US central bank, the US will never go bankrupt. Overthrown, possibly...

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As I posted some weeks back, it looks like Trump's trade war is has done nothing to improve the trade balance, and the goods deficit is widening.  This will mean 4thQ Real GDP will come in below 3%, unless there is a "supply side miracle" and business spending picks up....

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-current-account-deficit-widened-in-third-quarter-11545231771?mod=hp_major_pos10

 

 

Quote

The increase in the current-account deficit during the third quarter mainly reflected a $23.95 billion increase in the goods-trade deficit to $227.01 billion, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. 

 

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For those of the "sky is falling" belief the market is still up 11% from when Trump took office.  And why the Fed raised (and typically do so):

 

“The Committee judges that some further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term,”

 

So yes I guess to say the tax cuts lead to interest rate increases you'd be right.  But of course not for the reason that most idiots (who shall remain nameless) think. 

Edited by Chef Jim
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14 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

It was very well explained at the time that the tax cuts would lead to higher interest rates. But just pretend this is all a surprise. Why? Because #noclass 

 

This is pure nonsense.

Higher interest rates are the result increased demand for money.

Tax cuts may well add to other factors and stimulate to a level that would increase economic activity, but that is desirable, as long as debt can be managed, which is an entirely different issue.

Viewing an extremely desirable return to "normal" interest rates as a negative is a silly posture.

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25 minutes ago, sherpa said:

 

This is pure nonsense.

Higher interest rates are the result increased demand for money.

Tax cuts may well add to other factors and stimulate to a level that would increase economic activity, but that is desirable, as long as debt can be managed, which is an entirely different issue.

Viewing an extremely desirable return to "normal" interest rates as a negative is a silly posture.

Your second sentence is pure nonsense.

the Fed sets short term interest rates and can set it any level they want regardless of money demand.

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4 minutes ago, TPS said:

Your second sentence is pure nonsense.

the Fed sets short term interest rates and can set it any level they want regardless of money demand.

 

Nonsense.

The Fed does not "control short term interest rates."

The Fed controls the Fed funds rate, which is the rate banks make overnight loans to each other on money deposited at the Federal Reserve.

They also control the discount rate, which the rate banks pay when they borrow directly from the Federal Reserve.

 

To claim they "can set short term rates at any level they want" is preposterous.

They operate in a free market.

They have a huge influence, but the market determines what interest rates are based on supply and demand.

It is a giant misunderstanding to claim that the Fed controls rates.

In a relatively balanced market, it is easy to make such a claim, but it isn't true.

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