Gilmore: The Shadow Knows

[KD in CA]

There's a bit of a psychological effect to us having 2-3 bad plays that really stand out (perceived or actual) whereas as most cb play we see around the league is highlights (you notice the WR not the corner in most of those unless it's showcasing a corners big play)

 

 

I think the Jets game has really stuck with people. It was early in the season, fans expected a win, Fitz pulled his "once a year I look like Joe Montana" act, and when it became clear the defense was going down the tubes for the season, everyone ended up in the crosshairs with the biggest starts getting the most heat.

[buffalostu2]

Don't forget that if Gilmore does leave and signs for big money the Bills are looking at an end of the 3rd round draft pick in compensation for free agent loss.

 

Does that nudge you to let him walk?

 

For me his unwillingness to stick his nose in and make tackles says enough. While we may have growing pains we will not have that problem with Darby and Seymour.

[Webster Guy]

Well, when you have Leveon Bell putting up 300 yards from scrimmage in the snow there is no need to throw the ball.

 

Terrell Pryor? Who was his QB? Yeah, nuff said

Exactly. And Ben had his worst outing all year accuracy wise

Gilmore is Jarius Byrd 2.0

[thebandit27]

Exactly. And Ben had his worst outing all year accuracy wise

Gilmore is Jarius Byrd 2.0

 

Was I the ONLY one in the world that noticed that Pittsburgh put up 150+ passing yards with less than 3 minutes gone in the 2nd quarter?

 

The reason that Pittsburgh was able to run the ball down Buffalo's collective throat was that Rex played the last 2-1/2 quarters with 2 down lineman (and Shaq occasionally putting his hand on the ground too) after getting abused through the air. The only guy that held his own defensively in that game was Gilmore.

[elroy16]

Exactly. And Ben had his worst outing all year accuracy wise

Gilmore is Jarius Byrd 2.0

 

 

Sorry, but I don't agree with that statement. I think Gilmore will continue to be a top 10 CB while Byrd hasn't done much since leaving the Bills.

 

 

If Gilmore was looking for top 10 money, around $10 million a year, I could maybe see them bringing him back. I believe he's looking for top 5 money which is probably $14+ million a year, so I don't expect him back, especially considering the scheme they appear to be transitioning to.

 

 

If Rex was still around or they were going to run a mostly man scheme scheme, I imagine they'd put a higher premium on Gilmore since he's a strong man cover CB. With McDermott's zone heavy scheme, I just don't see the value in a $14 million dollar corner.

[johnwalter]

also the least targeted:

 

https://twitter.com/rotounderworld/status/824704798251515905

 

Least-targeted CBs per snap (min 50 tgts): 1. S. Gilmore 2. N. Lawson 3. Adam Jones 4. Sherman 5. J. Lane 6. P. Peterson 7. T. Brock 8. Slay

[thebandit27]

also the least targeted:

 

https://twitter.com/rotounderworld/status/824704798251515905

 

Least-targeted CBs per snap (min 50 tgts): 1. S. Gilmore 2. N. Lawson 3. Adam Jones 4. Sherman 5. J. Lane 6. P. Peterson 7. T. Brock 8. Slay

 

Thanks for adding a bit more context.

 

That meshes with the eye-test; teams don't target him.

[CanadianFan]

 

 

Sorry, but I don't agree with that statement. I think Gilmore will continue to be a top 10 CB while Byrd hasn't done much since leaving the Bills.

 

 

If Gilmore was looking for top 10 money, around $10 million a year, I could maybe see them bringing him back. I believe he's looking for top 5 money which is probably $14+ million a year, so I don't expect him back, especially considering the scheme they appear to be transitioning to.

 

 

If Rex was still around or they were going to run a mostly man scheme scheme, I imagine they'd put a higher premium on Gilmore since he's a strong man cover CB. With McDermott's zone heavy scheme, I just don't see the value in a $14 million dollar corner.

 

Yup, I agree.

 

Besides, this is a DB rich draft in 2017. Go the Carolina route.

 

 

Oh yes - according to NFL.com - Gilmore wants to feel wanted: so he wants the top $$

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000779515/article/stephon-gilmore-i-want-to-be-wanted-in-free-agency

Edited January 26, 2017 by CanadianFan

[Bill from NYC]

No offense, but you're not making a fact-based argument here.

You want some facts?

 

1) Overall, Gilmore's effort last season was lackluster. I don't care how much talent he is supposed to have. He does not put forth the effort..

 

2) The Bills were not a good enough team to waste a #10 on a cb when he was drafted.

 

3) The Bills could have traded down in that draft instead of blowing that pick on a disinterested Gilmore. They could have picked De Castro, Hightower, or Janoris Jenkins if they really wanted a corner that bad.

 

4) Gilmore rarely takes over a game and wins it. He isn't important enough to waste huge cap space on.

 

5) We could wind up with a 3rd Round pick if he leaves.

 

6) This draft would appear to be deep enough in the secondary that a smart GM would not feel compelled to waste yet another #10 on a db.

 

7) I don't know for sure, but I highly doubt if he would sign here. He plays as if he wants out. We would probably have to use the tag which would hurt our cap that much more.

 

Other than the above, giving Gilmore 90 or 100 million dollars might be a good idea.

[billsfan_34]

Gilmore gets fhe dreaded franchise tag

[H2o]

I'm not for giving Gilmore the Josh Norman-type money, but some team will be. He is a solid cover CB and you don't see too many of those anymore. He definitely outplayed Darby this year. Our depth behind him is not that great either. I like Robey-Coleman in the slot, I'm hoping it was a down year for Darby, and I hope Stephon comes at a reasonable rate. I still don't believe he comes back to Buffalo. Where I do think he ends up is in Miami.

[PO16FFS]

Gilmore gets fhe dreaded franchise tag

dont talk bad about his hair please

[2003Contenders]

When it is all said and done SOMEONE (be it the Bills or another team) is going to pay Gilmore. The market has been set on quality starting corners in the league. Regardless of his shortcomings, anyone with a fair sense of analysis would have to say that Gilmore qualifies as a quality starting corner -- whether or not you believe he is elite.

 

If the team makes a business decision to let him walk because they decide to invest the $15M or so per year that he will demand elsewhere, that is a reasonable assessment. However, if he leaves, let's not kid ourselves into believing that replacing his vacancy will be a piece of cake.

[thebandit27]

You want some facts?

 

1) Overall, Gilmore's effort last season was lackluster. I don't care how much talent he is supposed to have. He does not put forth the effort..

 

2) The Bills were not a good enough team to waste a #10 on a cb when he was drafted.

 

3) The Bills could have traded down in that draft instead of blowing that pick on a disinterested Gilmore. They could have picked De Castro, Hightower, or Janoris Jenkins if they really wanted a corner that bad.

 

4) Gilmore rarely takes over a game and wins it. He isn't important enough to waste huge cap space on.

 

5) We could wind up with a 3rd Round pick if he leaves.

 

6) This draft would appear to be deep enough in the secondary that a smart GM would not feel compelled to waste yet another #10 on a db.

 

7) I don't know for sure, but I highly doubt if he would sign here. He plays as if he wants out. We would probably have to use the tag which would hurt our cap that much more.

 

Other than the above, giving Gilmore 90 or 100 million dollars might be a good idea.

 

Facts? Every single one of those is an opinion (or a supposition). I haven't seen any information that contends that Buffalo could've traded down in 2012.

 

And if we're going to ask for Gilmore to "take over a game and win it", why don't we ask which CBs have done that--ever...let alone which ones have done it in recent memory.

 

As for when Gilmore has done it, well, dial up the 2014 game against Green Bay.

 

His effort was enough to force Aaron Rodgers' worst game as a pro despite zero sacks from the defense in the first 58 minutes.

 

If you want facts, here they are:

 

http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/191433-gilmore-the-shadow-knows/page-9?do=findComment&comment=4234493

[Bill from NYC]

 

 

If the team makes a business decision to let him walk because they decide to invest the $15M or so per year that he will demand elsewhere, that is a reasonable assessment. However, if he leaves, let's not kid ourselves into believing that replacing his vacancy will be a piece of cake.

The above is a fair, good analysis.

 

I think a better pass rush could make things easier for the next corner. If they play more zone, they won't need as much of a super athlete either. I have serious issues with allotting huge money to Gilmore.

[thebandit27]

The above is a fair, good analysis.

 

I think a better pass rush could make things easier for the next corner. If they play more zone, they won't need as much of a super athlete either. I have serious issues with allotting huge money to Gilmore.

 

Now that I agree with

[Bill from NYC]

 

Facts? Every single one of those is an opinion (or a supposition). I haven't seen any information that contends that Buffalo could've traded down in 2012.

 

And if we're going to ask for Gilmore to "take over a game and win it", why don't we ask which CBs have done that--ever...let alone which ones have done it in recent memory.

 

As for when Gilmore has done it, well, dial up the 2014 game against Green Bay.

 

His effort was enough to force Aaron Rodgers' worst game as a pro despite zero sacks from the defense in the first 58 minutes.

 

If you want facts, here they are:

 

http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/191433-gilmore-the-shadow-knows/page-9?do=findComment&comment=4234493

Bandit, should Gilmore be paid Julio Jones money? Or Von Miller money? As you well know, teams play 4 and even 5 wide sets all the time. The best corner who ever lived can only cover 1 receiver, and Gilmore is far from an all time great.

 

Seriously Bro, is there ANY amount of cap space that you would not be willing to toss at this player who gives as little effort as he does?

[GoBills808]

Bumping this so that we can put Gimore's numbers in context:

 

Gilmore stats for the 2016 season: 69 targets, 40 receptions, 627 yards, 2 TDs, 67.7 passer rating against

http://billswire.usatoday.com/2017/01/11/why-bills-cb-stephon-gilmore-wasnt-as-bad-as-you-thought-in-2016/

 

Article from Ike Taylor on his top 10 CBs in 2016:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000769950/article/yearend-cornerback-rankings-richard-sherman-lands-at-no-1

 

Richard Sherman, Seattle Seahawks: allowed 44 catches on 85 targets for 624 yards, two TDs, four INTs, 64.0 passer rating against.

 

Patrick Peterson, Arizona Cardinals: allowed 43 catches on 74 targets for 539 yards, two TDs, three INTs, 72.9 passer rating against.

 

Chris Harris Jr., Denver Broncos: allowed 34 catches on 72 targets for 337 yards, three TDs, two INTs, 63.3 passer rating against.

 

Marcus Peters, Kansas City Chiefs: allowed 51 catches on 89 targets for 652 yards, three TDs, six INTs, 63.5 passer rating against.

 

Josh Norman, Washington Redskins: allowed 44 catches on 88 targets for 589 yards, four TDs, three INTs, 72.6 passer rating against.

 

Janoris Jenkins, New York Giants: allowed 37 catches on 81 targets for 425 yards, two TDs, three INTs, 54.8 passer rating against.

 

Adam Jones, Cincinnati Bengals: allowed 47 catches for 76 targets for 482 yards, two TDs, one INT, 83.3 passer rating against.

 

Xavier Rhodes, Minnesota Vikings: allowed 33 catches on 79 targets for 384 yards, two TDs, five INTs, 39.2 passer rating against.

 

Aqib Talib, Denver Broncos: allowed 36 catches on 73 targets for 372 yards, zero TDs, three INTs, 53.3 passer rating against.

 

Jalen Ramsey, Jacksonville Jaguars: allowed 48 catches on 90 targets for 703 yards, two TDs, two INTs, 68.0 passer rating against.

 

Summary:

 

- Gilmore was targeted by opposing QBs fewer times than everyone on that list

- He allowed more yards than everyone on the list save for Ramsey and Peters

- Talib allowed zero TDs, and Gilmore tied with 6 others on the list for 2nd-fewest with 2 TDs allowed

- Gilmore's passer rating allowed was 3.7 points behind Sherman, and better than than those allowed by Patrick Peterson, Josh Norman, Adam Jones, and Jalen Ramsey

- Gilmore had fewer INTs than Peters, and tied with Rhodes for 2nd-most from that list

 

I'd say that Gilmore definitely has an argument that he should be considered among the top 10 cover corners in the NFL based on the numbers.

 

Thoughts?

I think this is a solid argument. Passes the eye test as well.

[Agent 91]

Bills fans thought process on if a player is good:

 

Does he make big money?

 

Yes. - He is not good

No - All-star, blue collar guy, embraces the city of Buffalo.

Except Gilmore is none of this. He isnt an all star. He isnt blue collar. And what gives you the notion he embraces the city?

AB only getting 5 targets is more the story than anything Gilly did that game.

Probably because Gilly is a non story.

[Zac]

for me this is a simple solution:

 

If we are planning on playing primarily zone, you dump him.

 

If we are playing more man to man you keep him.