A quick look at the cap for 2017

[Coach Tuesday]

Good stuff - thanks. Not a shock if he's talking about him. Hughes is one of those borderline psychopath guys who can only succeed in a venue like the NFL.

 

Yup. Like James Harrison, Vontaze Burfict and Steve Smith. You wonder sometimes if they even know they're playing football? As far as they know it might not even be a sport.

 

Anyhow sorry to digress. Great analysis Bandit and Gunner.

[thebandit27]

The more I think about this, the more I realize that it's kind of inevitable that LB is going to be a huge weakness on this team in 2017.

 

Even if they manage to re-sign Zach Brown, you have a LB group that consists of both Browns and Ragland--who is coming off an ACL injury.

 

That's it...nobody else under contract.

 

Now, assume that they do as many would like and switch to a 4-3...you'd like to think this makes the situation better, but in reality it creates a bigger hole. EDGE guys like Hughes, Lawson, and LorAx become DEs or situational pass rushers. Maybe LorAx can give you snaps at LB, but again, you want him as fresh as possible if he's going to rush the passer consistently.

 

They'll probably need to end up both re-signing Zach (or bringing in a guy like Malcolm Smith) and sacrificing a guy like Easley to bring back either Spikes or Humber. They'll probably keep 6 or 7 LBs on the roster (if they run a 4-3), so even if all of this happens, they're still in a position where a single injury to the group could cause serious issues on the field.

[aristocrat]

if we designate awill as a june 1 cut overthecap shows a 4.2 mil cap savings instead of the 1.75 with the early cut.

[GunnerBill]

if we designate awill as a june 1 cut overthecap shows a 4.2 mil cap savings instead of the 1.75 with the early cut.

 

That is true if they cut him. I'm not sure how it works if he files his retirement papers with the league, I thought that accelerated his option bonuses and doesn't allow the Bills to spread the hit over 2017 and 2018 - Bandit might know better than I.

[BigBuff423]

Please understand I appreciate your intent to deviate the conversation from the same re-tread, tired discussions here over the last couple of weeks - so thank you. However, I just want to point out that all of the cap projections rarely if ever come out to be anything close to accurate because there are so many creative ways to shift the money. For God's sake, the Saints were OVER the cap to START the year and somehow worked through it.

[thebandit27]

 

That is true if they cut him. I'm not sure how it works if he files his retirement papers with the league, I thought that accelerated his option bonuses and doesn't allow the Bills to spread the hit over 2017 and 2018 - Bandit might know better than I.

 

When a player files his retirement papers with the league, it's treated exactly the same as a cut--if it happens in the offseason, they can designate it as a post-June 1st cut.

Please understand I appreciate your intent to deviate the conversation from the same re-tread, tired discussions here over the last couple of weeks - so thank you. However, I just want to point out that all of the cap projections rarely if ever come out to be anything close to accurate because there are so many creative ways to shift the money. For God's sake, the Saints were OVER the cap to START the year and somehow worked through it.

 

Of course...we all know that.

 

We're merely looking ahead at what the team can do to both (a) bring in pieces they need and (b) remain fiscally responsible down the road, since they aren't in a position to go for it all next season.

[aristocrat]

 

When a player files his retirement papers with the league, it's treated exactly the same as a cut--if it happens in the offseason, they can designate it as a post-June 1st cut.

 

Of course...we all know that.

 

We're merely looking ahead at what the team can do to both (a) bring in pieces they need and (b) remain fiscally responsible down the road, since they aren't in a position to go for it all next season.

 

bandit...gracias. so there is an extra 2.5 mil in space.

 

dareus also gives us 3.6 mil in extra space from his suspension so there is zach brown signed!

[BigBuff423]

 

When a player files his retirement papers with the league, it's treated exactly the same as a cut--if it happens in the offseason, they can designate it as a post-June 1st cut.

 

Of course...we all know that.

 

We're merely looking ahead at what the team can do to both (a) bring in pieces they need and (b) remain fiscally responsible down the road, since they aren't in a position to go for it all next season.

 

I apologize if it came off as dismissive or argumentative, I was just saying that even with all the projections and "experts" on the topic it rarely works anywhere near where we think it might. Teams usually "find" money for the players they want. That said, I can see the Bills taking a moderate approach to FAs. And I don't think they keep Tyrod.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

I apologize if it came off as dismissive or argumentative, I was just saying that even with all the projections and "experts" on the topic it rarely works anywhere near where we think it might. Teams usually "find" money for the players they want. That said, I can see the Bills taking a moderate approach to FAs. And I don't think they keep Tyrod.

A lot (or all) of that "finding money" comes from the restructures and cuts. A lot of those were suggested within here.

 

What the Saints keep doing is converting bonuses to spread out the cap hit over multiple years. They basically keep kicking the can down the road. I think that their "plan" is basically to ride Brees as long as they can, bottom out and hit the reset button.

Edited January 5, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[GunnerBill]

What the Saints keep doing is converting bonuses to spread out the cap hit over multiple years. They basically keep kicking the can down the road. I think that their "plan" is basically to ride Brees as long as they can, bottom out and hit the reset button.

 

Yep. Which if I had an ageing Brees would be exactly my plan as well. They have a load of dead cash coming off the books this year so this offseason is their one last big chance to reload for a run. They need to get it right.

 

 

Bandit - thanks for the confirmation on A Williams. Much appreciated.

[GG]

The more I think about this, the more I realize that it's kind of inevitable that LB is going to be a huge weakness on this team in 2017.

 

Even if they manage to re-sign Zach Brown, you have a LB group that consists of both Browns and Ragland--who is coming off an ACL injury.

 

That's it...nobody else under contract.

 

Now, assume that they do as many would like and switch to a 4-3...you'd like to think this makes the situation better, but in reality it creates a bigger hole. EDGE guys like Hughes, Lawson, and LorAx become DEs or situational pass rushers. Maybe LorAx can give you snaps at LB, but again, you want him as fresh as possible if he's going to rush the passer consistently.

 

They'll probably need to end up both re-signing Zach (or bringing in a guy like Malcolm Smith) and sacrificing a guy like Easley to bring back either Spikes or Humber. They'll probably keep 6 or 7 LBs on the roster (if they run a 4-3), so even if all of this happens, they're still in a position where a single injury to the group could cause serious issues on the field.

 

Regarding LBs - if you go back to 4-3 then there's a role for Spikes in the defense again. Would Albright make the leap in year 2? Would McRay have a better fit?

 

Look at the LB situation heading into the 2014 season, and I think this group is stronger

[BigBuff423]

A lot (or all) of that "finding money" comes from the restructures and cuts. A lot of those were suggested within here.

 

What the Saints keep doing is converting bonuses to spread out the cap hit over multiple years. They basically keep kicking the can down the road. I think that their "plan" is basically to ride Brees as long as they can, bottom out and hit the reset button.

 

I understand it was suggested here, but point is that all of the exactitudes of those re-structures, cuts, and cap conversions almost never occur as expected so worrying about or projecting how much cap money is *actually* there is essentially pointless because the nature of the cap is extremely fluid. So, there's just too much to project....add in a new HC and staff, and it gets even harder since you don't know what or who they're doing to want.

[thebandit27]

 

bandit...gracias. so there is an extra 2.5 mil in space.

 

dareus also gives us 3.6 mil in extra space from his suspension so there is zach brown signed!

 

@aristo Is that $3.6M created because it's stricken from the 2017 cap, or because we can roll that space from 2016 over? Thanks for the reminder!

 

 

I apologize if it came off as dismissive or argumentative, I was just saying that even with all the projections and "experts" on the topic it rarely works anywhere near where we think it might. Teams usually "find" money for the players they want. That said, I can see the Bills taking a moderate approach to FAs. And I don't think they keep Tyrod.

 

Not at all...and your point is well-taken.

 

 

Regarding LBs - if you go back to 4-3 then there's a role for Spikes in the defense again. Would Albright make the leap in year 2? Would McRay have a better fit?

 

Look at the LB situation heading into the 2014 season, and I think this group is stronger

 

Fair points--a lot of it is going to depend upon who becomes the DC. If it's a guy like Bradley, he won't really have a use for Spikes--he likes speed guys, so Zach would be a must re-sign (hence why I thought a guy like Humber could work as well).

 

The starting group really wouldn't be the concern for me--I think you can probably get by with Brown-Ragland-Brown, especially if we play a lot of nickel like most teams do. It's what happens when one of those guys goes down that worries me...I wasn't a huge Ragland fan to begin with, so part of my concern relates to my skepticism that he can handle his business in coverage when asked ( **ducks the incoming swing from Blokes** )

[Nanker]

Whoever is driving the bus has to find a QB, and a kicker, and a couple of safeties, and two edge rushers, and a WR. That's a big shopping list.

[Reed83HOF]

Whoever is driving the bus has to find a QB, and a kicker, and a couple of safeties, and two edge rushers, and a WR. That's a big shopping list.

 

I still believe our record next year will be worse than this year; too many holes, too many upgrades and not enough resources to get it all done

[Hapless Bills Fan]

This came up at the end of season press conference and I thought was one of the more interesting points raised before the Buffalo media quickly got back to blaming people for things. Where are the Bills really at against the salary cap?

 

The NFL recently informed the teams it expects the cap for 2017 to be $168-172million. Based on a mid range of that estimate and a cap of around $170m (estimated by Over the Cap) the Bills have just under $26m of cap space and 42 players under contract. This number includes Tyrod's $15.9m cap hit and so is on the basis of the Bills taking up the option.

 

A lot is made of all the UFAs and RFAs - but when you look through the list of those there are not many you would expect the Bills to have genuine interest in bringing back. My summary of these is below:

 

Definitely won't be back: Reggie Bush, James Ihedigbo, Percy Harvin, Sergio Brown, Brandon Spikes, Robert Blanton, Jonathan Meeks, Ramon Humber, Dri Archer, IK Enemkpali, EJ Manuel.

 

Unlikely to be back (either because the team doesn't want them or because they are likely too expensive): Lorenzo Alexander, Leger Douzable, Robert Woods, Corey White, Corbin Bryant, Jordan Mills, Colt Anderson, Lerentee McCray, Marquise Goodwin.

 

Possible cheap re-signings: Justin Hunter, Chris Gragg, Brandon Tate, Jerome Felton, Colton Schmidt

 

Possible expensive re-signings: Stephon Gilmore, Zach Brown

 

Likely RFA tenders: Ryan Groy, Mike Gillislee

 

 

So if you start by tendering Groy and Gillislee at the lowest tender and then franchising Gilmore (all of which I think likely happen) that reduces the cap space to around $8.3m and you now have 45 players under contract. Then before you go any further you consider Aaron Williams who very likely retires - saving you about $1.75m against the 2017 cap which puts you back to total cap space of around $10m.

 

Then you turn your attention to the re-signings and I see it as a choice either between bringing back some or all of the cluster of possible cheap re-signings or spending the cash on a $4-5m a year deal for Zach Brown. If the Bills let Zach walk and chose, for example, to bring back Felton, Hunter and Brandon Tate all of whom played pretty significant roles on offense and/or special teams in 2016 you could probably do that for a total spend of around $4m in 2017. Those moves would leave you with around $6m in cap space and 47 players under contract. That is just short of the $6.3m that Over the Cap estimates would be needed to sign our draft picks.

 

Which brings you to possible cuts. I will list these in order of "easiest" to hardest and the impact of making them on cap and roster size. This is cumulative and obviously the Bills could choose to make the hardest cuts but not the easier ones.

 

Dan Carpenter - saving of $2.4m - cap space $8.4m with 46 players under contract.

Patrick Lewis - saving of $1.2m - cap space $9.6m with 45 players under contract.

Marcus Easley - saving of $1m - cap space $10.6m with 44 players under contract.

Corey Graham - saving of $3.75m - cap space $14.4m with 43 players under contract.

Eric Wood - saving of $4.5m (if cut with post 1 June designation) - cap space of $18.9m with 42 players under contract.

Kyle Williams - saving of $6.8m - cap space of $25.7m with 41 players under contract.

 

 

Conclusion

The Bills are tight against the cap without being entirely hamstrung by their position against it. Being able to reach a long term deal with Gilmore that reduces his 2017 hit (even by just a couple of million) would give them greater flexibility as would either letting Gilmore or Tyrod walk. There are enough easy cuts to allow them to have space even with a franchise tagged Gilmore and Tyrod's option taken up to sign their draft class and bring in a couple of dust settle free agents (think RT, S and WR as areas that might benefit from a reasonably priced vet addition). To create enough space to bring in a top end free agent at one of those positions they likely need to make one of the difficult cuts - Corey Graham and Eric Wood would be the ones who appear at greatest risk.

 

Great post. I would like to see them bring back Robert Woods and Jordan Mills because we're so thin there.

What about cutting Hughes? He's been a discipline problem with dumb penalties. Designating him post-June 1 saves us $7.5M.

 

I was very disappointed that the media didn't follow up on Whaley's cap comments. They wouldn't have gotten much out of him, but sometimes he does share surprising info.

Nice work Gunner; really solid...I was actually working on this a bit over the weekend.

 

Our plans are close, but not identical. Here's where I'm at:

 

With 43 players under contract, and assuming a cap of $170M, we're a bit more than $28M under the cap now.

 

RFAs

I would tender only Gilislee and Groy--I am looking for an upgrade from Schmidt. Assuming the lowest tender amount is close to $1.8M, that brings us down to approximately $25M.

 

Cheap UFA Re-signings

I'm looking at Hunter, Tate, and Felton. I think these 3 can get done for a total of $4M, which drops the space down to $21M.

 

Allowed to Walk

Manuel, Gragg, Woods, Gilmore, Brown, Ihedigbo, Meeks, Humber, Spikes, Douzable, McCray, White, Blanton, Anderson, Gragg, Goodwin, Harvin, Bush, Mills, Bryant.

 

Expensive UFA Re-signings

Zach Brown - I'd like to get Zach at $5M AAV if possible. Much of his valuation will depend upon the new DC, but supposing it's a guy like Bradley, Zach has added value as a coverage guy with speed.

LorAx - Again, this is going to depend entirely upon the market for his services. I can't remember the last time a 33-year-old burst onto the scene with a double-digit sack season the way he has, so I have no idea how to value that. For the sake of argument, I used Elvis Dumervil's $5.2M AAV as the starting point, so I think it's possible that LorAx comes back for $5M on a one-year "prove it" type deal.

 

The above drop the cap space to $11M with 50 players under contract.

 

Cuts

Aaron Williams (actually, a retirement) - saves $1.775M

Corey Graham - saves $3.775M

Dan Carpenter - saves $2.4M

 

Brings the cap space up to approximately $19M with 47 players under contract.

 

Restructures/Renegotiation

I'm assuming, for the sake of conservatism, that we don't touch Tyrod's deal (and that he stays, obviously).

I'd tack two years onto Eric Wood's deal (call it a total of $8M on the 2-year extension) and slash his base salary for 2017 to $1M (converting the rest to a signing bonus), which gives him an extra $3M+ in cash right now. This would save $2.1M.

 

Now we're up to $21.1M with 47 players under contract. I'll assume $6Mish for draft picks as Over the Cap did, so we're at $15M in space to go shopping.

 

My Plan

- Sign likely cap casualty Antione Bethea from SF. He's a veteran that can still play well in both phases, and brings some much-needed experience to an empty cupboard at safety. At 32 years old, he'd probably take $4M AAV.

- Sign a cap casualty to compete with Seymour on the boundary. A guy like Sam Shields, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Alterraun Vernor, who can still play, but would cost closer to $7M AAV and not count against the compensatory formula.

- Sign a backup QB. Should be able to get this done for a 1-year, $3M deal.

 

Even with no progressive structuring of the contracts, we're now at 50 players under contract (before draft picks and UDFAs) and within $1M of the cap. Holes still remain at safety and WR, but you have to believe you can address those in the draft. I am fully in favor of moving Glenn to RT and letting Kouandjio man the LT spot, so I'm not considering RT an immediate need.

 

Also great post! Thanks! Sheesh, why can't our professional media write stuff like this?

Edited January 5, 2017 by Hapless Bills Fan

[GunnerBill]

I'd be surprised if Hughes is not back (because he is the only proven rusher we have) but it isn't impossible that he is cut if that is the saving!

[thebandit27]

Bumping this now that the cap and FA tenders have been released.

 

I went to the Spotrac roster management tool, and made the following moves:

 

Picked up Taylor's option (has no effect on cap)

Released Corey Graham and Marcus Easley

Tendered Groy at the original round level

Re-signed Justin Hunter and Brandon Tate to identical $1M deals for 2017

Re-signed Zach Brown and gave him a cap hit of $4M for 2017

Signed Alterraun Verner and gave him a cap hit of $5M for 2017

Signed Jairus Byrd and gave him a cap hit of $3M for 2017

Signed Dwight Freeney and gave him a cap hit of $1.5M for 2017

 

The above left me with $11.5M in cap space, $6M of which I assumed needed to go to draft picks.

 

I'm also left with obvious needs at:

 

QB (to be the next franchise hopeful and compete for backup spot)

WR (starting)

OT (to compete at RT)

LB (to compete with Preston Brown)

S (to compete for the 3rd safety spot)

K

P

 

My opinion is that a portion of the $5.5M in space that isn't allocated to draft picks needs to be used to fill two of the above needs outside of the draft. I would hope for a 3rd safety and a sub-package LB.

 

Thoughts?

[ndirish1978]

Great post bandit. I like everything except for Freeney. He's old and wouldn't sign here anyway imo

[BuffaloHokie13]

I think ZBrown will be about $1M more than that, but I also think you went conservative on the draft pick allotment unless we trade back. I suspect the draft picks that effect the cap will total $4.75-5M (rounds 1-3).