Goodbye Dan Carpenter!

[Blokestradamus]

what do you consider easy? XP's? 45 yards?

 

Rule of thumb for me is:

 

Inside 40 - should be automatic

41-50 - 75% conversion rate

50+ - better than 50% is good

 

Things like weather can alter things. Bad snaps/holds can come into play. Stats alone without checking for that kind of context is a risky business.

 

Bottom line is, Dan has missed 12 kicks in 2 seasons that I consider automatic. 11 XP's but only 1 FG from within 40, which is strange. He's probably psyched himself out with this stuff now. I can't spend nearly $3m next year on a guy that just struggles making the routine stuff.

[CountDorkula]

 

Rule of thumb for me is:

 

Inside 40 - should be automatic

41-50 - 75% conversion rate

50+ - better than 50% is good

 

Things like weather can alter things. Bad snaps/holds can come into play. Stats alone without checking for that kind of context is a risky business.

 

Bottom line is, Dan has missed 12 kicks in 2 seasons that I consider automatic. 11 XP's but only 1 FG from within 40, which is strange. He's probably psyched himself out with this stuff now. I can't spend nearly $3m next year on a guy that just struggles making the routine stuff.

here are your FA kickers next year.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/kicker/

 

Who do you replace him with?

[purple haze]

and we will sign one of those kickers.

Just like we did with Carperter.....

They will sign someone who they hope will be more reliable. I don't know who said kickers never missed kicks. Certainly not me.

However, just as people think we can and should try to do better at QB, the same should go for the kicker position. If one's job is to make

kicks and kick off, they should be better at doing it. Maybe Carpenter will re-gain form elsewhere.

[CountDorkula]

They will sign someone who they hope will be more reliable. I don't know who said kickers never missed kicks. Certainly not me.

However, just as people think we can and should try to do better at QB, the same should go for the kicker position. If one's job is to make

kicks and kick off, they should be better at doing it. Maybe Carpenter will re-gain form elsewhere.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/kicker/

 

Who do you replace him with from that list?

Do you draft a kicer?

[klos63]

 

Rule of thumb for me is:

 

Inside 40 - should be automatic

41-50 - 75% conversion rate

50+ - better than 50% is good

 

Things like weather can alter things. Bad snaps/holds can come into play. Stats alone without checking for that kind of context is a risky business.

 

Bottom line is, Dan has missed 12 kicks in 2 seasons that I consider automatic. 11 XP's but only 1 FG from within 40, which is strange. He's probably psyched himself out with this stuff now. I can't spend nearly $3m next year on a guy that just struggles making the routine stuff.

Seems like a fair standard. I agree with you.

[Blokestradamus]

here are your FA kickers next year.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/kicker/

 

Who do you replace him with?

 

I'd certainly pay Greg the Leg a nice chunk of money. Rebounded from a poor 2015. His 2016 fits my rule of thumb to the number. Plus he's got the ability to kick touchbacks if needed.

 

Prior to the XP rule change, I would've snapped up Hauschka but he's had his wobbles recently. If you can get him cheaper than Carp as perceived damaged goods, I'd take a gamble on him.

 

I'd prefer to draft one, or at least bring in the right UDFA to compete with a vet. Couple of guys I have my eye on but I'll know more when I dig into them.

Edited December 27, 2016 by Blokestradamus

[Wagon Circler]

Without offering excuses, everyone does understand that Carp's misses were into the wind while the other guy was kicking IWITH the wind? Usually a pretty strong wind in Orchard Park this time of year.

But I'm for getting rid of him too not just based on this game only.

[klos63]

 

under 40 Yards.

 

When he misses them consistently***

 

Carpenter this year

FG

20-29 - 100%

30-39 - 100%

 

Again, if you want to move on fine. But the next guy you are going to bring in is also going to miss kicks. its what they do.

 

Im just not going to sit here and pretend that the guy you bring in is automatically going to make every GW FG.

I understand it's tricky to assess kickers, but when you see signs of weakness, you need to act quickly. Going back in time, Norwood should have been released the year of Super Bowl XXV, it was obvious at the time he was aging and his leg was losing strength. Don't wait too long again please.

[nedboy7]

But it's Tyrod's fault!!!

[DallasMac]

Zane Gonzalez out of AZst has been really good during his college career.

[TDO'Kearney]

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/kicker/

 

Who do you replace him with from that list?

Do you draft a kicer?

I might be talked into Hauschka from that list. A fifth round draft pick should be just as good.

 

The issue is this: Carpenter is tied for 28th in the league in FG% with 75%. Only 2 attempts were 50+ (he made one, a 54 yarder), and he's 4/9 on 40-49s. BTW, if it always feels like the Bills are losing to kickers in 50+ yd FGs, it's because those are becoming routine in the league. League % on 50+ is 65% this year - chances are 2 out of 3 on 50+, and that's the AVERAGE.

 

Carpenter is also 27th in the league in XP% with 39/44 or 89%. 5 kickers are perfect, and 25 of them are >90%.

 

What other area of the team are we satisfied with 28th in the league? We're calling for Rex's head, because that's probably where the run defense ranks. We're calling for TT's head, because the passing offense is similar. But Carpenter is OK?

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/kicking/sort/fieldGoalPct

Edited December 27, 2016 by TDO'Kearney

[CountDorkula]

I might be talked into Hauschka from that list. A fifth round draft pick should be just as good.

 

The issue is this: Carpenter is tied for 28th in the league in FG% with 75%. Only 2 attempts were 50+ (he made one, a 54 yarder), and he's 4/9 on 40-49s. BTW, if it always feels like the Bills are losing to kickers in 50+ yd FGs, it's because those are becoming routine in the league. League % on 50+ is 65% this year - chances are 2 out of 3 on 50+, and that's the AVERAGE.

 

Carpenter is also 27th in the league in XP% with 39/44 or 89%. 5 kickers are perfect, and 25 of them are >90%.

 

What other area of the team are we satisfied with 28th in the league? We're calling for Rex's head, because that's probably where the run defense ranks. We're calling for TT's head, because the passing offense is similar. But Carpenter is OK?

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/kicking/sort/fieldGoalPct

Of that, im generally curious to how much the weather plays a role in those %'s.

 

All i have said is if you move on from him, averages say the replacement kicker will miss GW FG's in his career here.

[TDO'Kearney]

Of that, im generally curious to how much the weather plays a role in those %'s.

 

All i have said is if you move on from him, averages say the replacement kicker will miss GW FG's in his career here.

The PIT guy is 17th, and perfect on extra points, and ketchup field is supposed to be the worst.

Yes, another kicker will miss a few, even the NE guys do, but Carpenter's performance overall needs improvement, either by him, or a replacement.

[Big Gun]

I might be talked into Hauschka from that list. A fifth round draft pick should be just as good.

 

The issue is this: Carpenter is tied for 28th in the league in FG% with 75%. Only 2 attempts were 50+ (he made one, a 54 yarder), and he's 4/9 on 40-49s. BTW, if it always feels like the Bills are losing to kickers in 50+ yd FGs, it's because those are becoming routine in the league. League % on 50+ is 65% this year - chances are 2 out of 3 on 50+, and that's the AVERAGE.

 

Carpenter is also 27th in the league in XP% with 39/44 or 89%. 5 kickers are perfect, and 25 of them are >90%.

 

What other area of the team are we satisfied with 28th in the league? We're calling for Rex's head, because that's probably where the run defense ranks. We're calling for TT's head, because the passing offense is similar. But Carpenter is OK?

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/kicking/sort/fieldGoalPct

Ummm, QB look at the other threads.

I might be talked into Hauschka from that list. A fifth round draft pick should be just as good.

 

The issue is this: Carpenter is tied for 28th in the league in FG% with 75%. Only 2 attempts were 50+ (he made one, a 54 yarder), and he's 4/9 on 40-49s. BTW, if it always feels like the Bills are losing to kickers in 50+ yd FGs, it's because those are becoming routine in the league. League % on 50+ is 65% this year - chances are 2 out of 3 on 50+, and that's the AVERAGE.

 

Carpenter is also 27th in the league in XP% with 39/44 or 89%. 5 kickers are perfect, and 25 of them are >90%.

 

What other area of the team are we satisfied with 28th in the league? We're calling for Rex's head, because that's probably where the run defense ranks. We're calling for TT's head, because the passing offense is similar. But Carpenter is OK?

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/kicking/sort/fieldGoalPct

agree with most of this

 

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2016/kicking.htm

[SWATeam]

I understand it's tricky to assess kickers, but when you see signs of weakness, you need to act quickly. Going back in time, Norwood should have been released the year of Super Bowl XXV, it was obvious at the time he was aging and his leg was losing strength. Don't wait too long again please.

He had his best year ever the following year and had a game winning kick that was a big part of getting us back to the SB

[PO16FFS]

He had his best year ever the following year and had a game winning kick that was a big part of getting us back to the SB

 

He had his best year ever the following year and had a game winning kick that was a big part of getting us back to the SB

busted!!!

[DasNootz]

Without offering excuses, everyone does understand that Carp's misses were into the wind while the other guy was kicking IWITH the wind? Usually a pretty strong wind in Orchard Park this time of year.

But I'm for getting rid of him too not just based on this game only.

Even more reason why you need a strong legged kicker in Buffalo. Lets not forget we also have had to "waste" roster spots on carrying a second kicker for kickoffs because he can't reach the endzone. Would this game have been different had the Dolphins had a touchback at the end of the 4th?

[dave mcbride]

here are your FA kickers next year.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/kicker/

 

Who do you replace him with?

College ball churns out new kickers every goddamn year. Franks from Miami - the guy who beat us! - was a UDFA from RPI (of all places!) last year. And he's better than Carpenter.

Edited December 27, 2016 by dave mcbride

[Wing Man]

Dan was a nice guy like so many of our coaches and players that haven't worked out. Chan was really nice and Norwood was a great guy. Just time to move on.

[3rdand12]

Take the punter please. he is actually worse then Carp. I would suggest he has lost games for us , although statistically i cannot back that up nor would i try. So many times a decent punter would have given us good field position for the Defense this year i lost count.