Billsguy Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 The 7-7 record has the Bills in playoff contention mathematically. (although the odds are only about 2% they make it) Just looking at the wins vs. the losses may give you an idea where the team stands. I am excluding the win in New England without Brady as an exception that doesn't paint an accurate picture. If this bothers you, stop reading now. The six remaining wins came against teams with a combined record of 17-65-1 (.205 W%) Three wins came against the three worst teams in the league (Cle,SF,Jax) the other three came against bad Arizona and Cinci and a horrible LA team. The losses came against teams with a combined record 62-35-1 (.633 W%) All these teams are either in the playoffs or very near except for the Jets. (Yes, the Bills lost to the pathetic Jets - the W% in the losses rises to .690 if you exclude the Jets) So what, if any, conclusions can be drawn from this data? IMO, the Bills are clearly not a playoff team in terms of quality. They appear to be better than the bottom feeders, but not good enough to beat the playoff quality teams. Where do they go from here? My guess is they will continue to reside in NFL purgatory (records between 4-12 and 8-8) until fundamental changes are made to the management and coaching structure of the team. Let's examine the key components. President Russ Brandon's career with the Bills overlaps the futility of the non-playoff Bills with uncanny similarity. Ever since Brandon joined the Bills in 1997, the playoffs have been almost non-existent. I don't blame him for his first couple years, but since 2006 his role with the Bills has been huge and the results on the field have been disastrous. He is a big favorite of Pegula and the owner's faith hasn't been shaken. This doesn't bode well for the franchise turning things around in a meaningful way. Brandon apparently has a huge influence over the GM and coaching choices. How has that gone Mr. Pegula? GM Doug Whaley has made some decent moves and some terrible moves. On the whole, he has failed to produce a playoff team. As a result, the GM has largely failed. The coaching staff was a mistake from the beginning. Rex Ryan is a proven loser. This conclusion is based on a large sample size and his career NFL record as a head coach is still under .500. His "claim to fame" is that he is a defensive specialist, but his tangible on field results do not support this myth. The hiring of his twin brother to help the defense was laughable. His brother's record (which got him fired) in New Orleans was historically bad. Furthermore, Rex Ryans' record developing QB's is downright abysmal. We will never know if Tyrod Taylor is a worthy QB if Ryan is still the head coach. Can you name all the QB's that thrived under Ryan? They don't exist. My feeling is that the 7-7 record (give or take a game or two) is about as good as it is going to get under the current administration. If you're looking for a brighter future for the Bills, then large scale changes need to be made. If you think things will improve significantly with a little tweak here or there, then don't change a thing. I believe the status quo is not good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 I'd argue that the bar has been raised where 8-8 isn't good enough. We all wanted the playoffs and no one is happy. I believe Whaley had this team on the verge of the playoffs and it didn't matter who was at qb. Then, Rex came and needed new pieces for his team. I think all the pieces are there, minus a qb (who is passable at times). I just don't think we got what Rex promised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koufax Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Accurate breakdown on the wins, but if you want to evaluate the team you have to take into account: 1) We did beat the Patriots in New England 2) We travelled across the country to beat potential Super Bowl matchup teams Oakland and Seattle both on the road. Came up a little short on each, but showed at each game that we belonged. 3) We got demolished by the real Steelers and the real Patriots at home. 4) Our QB and our coach on individual plays and decisions over and over displayed that they are not good enough at their jobs. But the core of our team along with the hope that we would get 16 games out of Watkins and Dareus in 2016 should build confidence that a new coach isn't very far away if he can find competent QB play in the short term (including Tyrod, Romo, etc) while identifying and developing his franchise QB beyond that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 I'd argue that the bar has been raised where 8-8 isn't good enough. We all wanted the playoffs and no one is happy. I believe Whaley had this team on the verge of the playoffs and it didn't matter who was at qb. Then, Rex came and needed new pieces for his team. I think all the pieces are there, minus a qb (who is passable at times). I just don't think we got what Rex promised. In a nutshell this is as simple an analysis as I've seen. Not anymore complicated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpleman Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 I'd argue that the bar has been raised where 8-8 isn't good enough. We all wanted the playoffs and no one is happy. I believe Whaley had this team on the verge of the playoffs and it didn't matter who was at qb. Then, Rex came and needed new pieces for his team. I think all the pieces are there, minus a qb (who is passable at times). I just don't think we got what Rex promised. I can't agree on this at all. Do you really think AW will still be at Safety with his health issues? Graham is really starting to show the effects of wear and tear. So we are in trouble at Safety. We most likely will not be able to afford to keep Gilmore at CB. CB is a question mark. We likely will not be able to afford to keep Woods, so beyond Sammy we have what quality at WR? The right side of the O line is still a tire fire at RT, and while Miller has become passable and average, he is is never going to be strong enough to overcome and compensate for a weak RT on that side. I'm not sure how secure Clay is with his cap and his performance next season. Behind him I'm not confident in TE. We obviously will need to use a high draft pick on QB. There is little available for a FA QB signing. At the least we need serious help at S & WR. Depth help all over the place. And are you really content on trusting Carpenter for another season? It is not just QB, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chandler#81 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 I feel the team will be truly ready to compete when we go to our PS 1st and current unemployed players who know our system (late Camp cuts, etc.) when injuries mount. For 3 years (at least) we've had a revolving door of street FA's file through and get prepped to play on Sunday's. Last year, we had 17 guys play that weren't on the Opening Day roster. in a word, DEPTH. We lack Depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmur66 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 My guess is they will continue to reside in NFL purgatory (records between 4-12 and 8-8) until fundamental changes are made to the management and coaching structure of the team. I totally agree with everything you said. The Head Coach and GM reporting the owner equally will never work. Apparently the players have input also. This team needs a strong GM that hires his coach based on a shared vision of how to reach the promised land. This team will not get to the next level with the structure they have now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DriveFor1Outta5 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Accurate breakdown on the wins, but if you want to evaluate the team you have to take into account: 1) We did beat the Patriots in New England 2) We travelled across the country to beat potential Super Bowl matchup teams Oakland and Seattle both on the road. Came up a little short on each, but showed at each game that we belonged. 3) We got demolished by the real Steelers and the real Patriots at home. 4) Our QB and our coach on individual plays and decisions over and over displayed that they are not good enough at their jobs. But the core of our team along with the hope that we would get 16 games out of Watkins and Dareus in 2016 should build confidence that a new coach isn't very far away if he can find competent QB play in the short term (including Tyrod, Romo, etc) while identifying and developing his franchise QB beyond that. The only issue I have with this analysis is that almost doesn't count. The Seattle and Oakland games are irrelevant as to showing the kind of team we are. In the NFL bad teams "almost" beat good teams every week. It's the wins and losses that separate NFL teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDIGGZ Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 In examining our 7-7 record I have been able to deduce that 50% of those games we had less points than the other team. However, there were some games where we actually had more points than the opponent. 7 if my calculations are correct. That's more than 6 but less than 10 needed for the playoffs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maury Ballstein Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 6 wins vs teams that are 17-65 seems about right. Same old crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodeMonkey Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 I believe Whaley had this team on the verge of the playoffs and it didn't matter who was at qb. Then, Rex came and needed new pieces for his team. This is a valid point if and only if Whaley wasn't in favor of the Ryan hire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quinnearlysghost88 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 i love how injuries aren't an excuse for our losses, but other teams' injuries aren't an excuse for our wins either. i'm in the devil's !@#$. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed83HOF Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 It's the way the team was built, the age of the players, lack of depth, lack if acceptable coaching (late play calls, moving in molasses in the 2 minute drill of 4 minute offense, etc. There is plenty of blame to shift around, just like there is every year. Everyone thought it was Rex's scheme in 2015 with Mario, nope he fell of the cliff; Aaron Williams destroyed his neck in 2015; Preston Brown stunk (Still does); Kyle was injured. This year we loaded up on D in the draft Lawson (injured), Ragland (ACL), Williams is lucky to still be walking, CBs took a step back, Dareus suspended and hurt, Kyle hurt, Graham a year older. At the end of the day the mighty Schwartz wasn't going to have the same level of success. There was no plan for safety going into this year at all and we took an injured player in the first round. How did anyone expect this to get better? It clearly is not all on Rex.... On offense in 2015, TT was better than what we have had in a long time - didn't throw over the middle, couldn't anticipate throws, had accuracy issues, doesn't go through progressions, has happy feet, misses open WRs/TEs/RBs; Harvin got hurt, Goodwin got hurt, Clay was not used (and paid a lot of $$) as well, Sammy wasn't getting the rock, Shady was hurt, Right side of OL stunk. In 2016 we didn't add any WRs, Sammy was hurt back in May, still no moves; Rt side of line still stinks (Miller looking ok), TT still can't throw over the middle, can't throw a WR open, still lacks anticipation, still not entirely accurate with his passes, still doesn't go through progressions, still has happy feet, still misses WRs/RBs/TEs. It is clearly not all Rex.... We are also high in cap spending and have more free agents than anyone else. There is clearly no way we will be a better team next season either. All we will do is keep plugging more and more holes without increasing our overall net talent at the same time our current talent ages and becomes more expensive...That is also clearly not on Rex.... I can't believe I'm defending a coach, I am not 100% for, but it sure is hell isn't all on him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronyAbounds Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 (edited) Additional perspective on the 7-7 record: Bills have 4th worst Strength of Victory in AFC (including Cleveland, which obviously has no victories), and 3rd easiest schedule in the AFC (only New England and Miami have had easier schedules). The Strength of Victory number is inflated since one win was against 12-2 Patriots when the Pats had to play their thumb-injured 3rd string QB. The easy schedule is what gets me. The Bills have been blessed two years in a row with playing the suckiest conference in the NFL as their out of conference opponents, and yet haven't really capitalized on it because they can't take care of business within the AFC. And if you compare this year's Strength of Victory and Strength of Schedule to last year, the Bills have regressed considerably in both categories. Rex isn't the only problem, but it is hard to argue that he is the answer unless the question is "How can the Bills continue their mediocre ways?" Edited December 20, 2016 by IronyAbounds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 I'd argue that the bar has been raised where 8-8 isn't good enough. We all wanted the playoffs and no one is happy. I believe Whaley had this team on the verge of the playoffs and it didn't matter who was at qb. Then, Rex came and needed new pieces for his team. I think all the pieces are there, minus a qb (who is passable at times). I just don't think we got what Rex promised. 8-8 is currently the floor of what's acceptable with this team talent wise. We have enough talent to win 10 games, we just have to figure out how to win 2 of the 5 or 6 games we are playing with a lead or right with the good teams, and they haven't been able to do it. Blew an 11 point 4th quarter lead against the Dolphins earlier this year,blew a 15 point second half lead against the Raiders, had chance after chance after chance to do anything on offense to beat the Ravens and couldn't, had 4 chances inside the red zone to beat Seattle at the end of the game and couldn't, etc, etc, etc... They don't need to win them ALL, they just need to win more than 0 of those games Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ndirish1978 Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Despite the record, no one who watches this team could possibly believe this team is trending up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manther Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 The 7-7 record has the Bills in playoff contention mathematically. (although the odds are only about 2% they make it) Just looking at the wins vs. the losses may give you an idea where the team stands. I am excluding the win in New England without Brady as an exception that doesn't paint an accurate picture. If this bothers you, stop reading now. The six remaining wins came against teams with a combined record of 17-65-1 (.205 W%) Three wins came against the three worst teams in the league (Cle,SF,Jax) the other three came against bad Arizona and Cinci and a horrible LA team. The losses came against teams with a combined record 62-35-1 (.633 W%) All these teams are either in the playoffs or very near except for the Jets. (Yes, the Bills lost to the pathetic Jets - the W% in the losses rises to .690 if you exclude the Jets) Agreed!! Our schedule was just as weak last year. Both years should of been playoffs with average coaching. People who believe in Rex and don't get this I question their logic. Furthermore, the folks who just read the above and dismiss it..... I ask, "really"? What am I missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 I'm not good enough to know if Whaley or the rest of the FO actually know what they're doing. So, I can't speak too much to all that. Other than to say... At some point you are what your record says you are. And the Bills under Whaley et al. struggle to win 9 games and have yet to make the playoffs. At some point... You gotta hold people accountable, right or wrong. Regarding Rex and the coaching staff... I didn't like the hire then and I don't like him now. His hallmark is an undisciplined, sloppy team. And that's exactly what we have. Players getting suspended, getting days off from practicing, cheap penalties, mistakes, and lack of focus.... That's how I best describe this team. And it all stems from the head coach. I got no problem with Rex getting shown the door, I would have done it after last season's complete fail. Tyrod.... I want to like him. But, in the end, he just doesn't see the field well enough and is just inconsistent enough to cost us games. Yeah, he's good and the offense scores and all, but how many times have we needed a pass on 3rd down just to watch the ball sail or see him scramble. At some point, he has to make defenses pay. Rarely does he do it. I'm torn. I want a better QB, but he geniuinely seems to care and does do a lot of stuff good. Pretty much every other player and position on the team... See my comments on Rex. Get a new coach and many of them would turn it around. I firmly believe that. Are they all pro bowlers? No. But few teams if any have more than a couple of 3-4 true stars. The rest are role players that perform when needed. A perfect example of that is Woods. He's not Watkins, but he doesn't have to be. He just needs to be the safety valve when Watkins is doubled. We have plenty of those players. They just need a coaching staff to keep them focused, healthly and playing with a solid game plan. So, to the OP's point.... yeah, we've beat bad teams and lost to good teams. Occasionally, everyone plays tough for Rex. But can they do that consistently, week after week? Rex's teams have never done that. Do I want the whole team blowed up after the season... No. Do I want Rex gone... Yes. Other coaches have shown that you can come in and win in the 1st year. We're close, we just need to find the guy that can do that... and maybe a QB that can actually throw downfield with some accuracy. Or see if Tyrod needs glasses (ala the Wild thing). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LI_Bills Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 I always liked the quote from Parcells: "Your are what your record is". Point is it doesn't really matter how you got there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 8-8 is currently the floor of what's acceptable with this team talent wise. We have enough talent to win 10 games, we just have to figure out how to win 2 of the 5 or 6 games we are playing with a lead or right with the good teams, and they haven't been able to do it. Blew an 11 point 4th quarter lead against the Dolphins earlier this year,blew a 15 point second half lead against the Raiders, had chance after chance after chance to do anything on offense to beat the Ravens and couldn't, had 4 chances inside the red zone to beat Seattle at the end of the game and couldn't, etc, etc, etc... They don't need to win them ALL, they just need to win more than 0 of those games I agree. I also think having an inconsistent offense was a big reason we blew those games. But you are what your record says you are. 7-7 seems right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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