We are at (yet another) crossroads - Where to now?

[Big C]

Regardless of what happens with Rex, we find ourselves at yet another crossroads, several actually. I haven't compiled my overall thoughts on this season yet, but a lot has been on my mind and felt like sharing some thoughts about where we came from and where we are going.

 

First, Rex and the defense. He has been a contentious hire since it was announced. Some stating that Schwartz was getting so much out of the squad as it was, so why blow up our best unit in years? Others were optimistic, saying Rex was a better defensive mind and would be able to maintain or even improve the already dominant unit. But the fact of the matter is that the defense was bound to disappoint from the start. Rex Ryan's system just wasn't built for rosters with the talent we had and the areas we invested top dollar in. Schwartz's defense was predicated on having dominant talent up front that could pressure the QB on their own, and the goal was to get sacks. Rex's defense was about confusing the QB, forcing them to make a mistake. It's a philosophy that goes beyond simply the 4-3. 3-4, whatever scheme. Schwartz imposes his will on you (or at least tries), Ryan sort of tricks you and exploits your mistake. As an allegory, Schwartz's defense is the US in WWII, Rex's is the US in the Revolutionary War. You could say that the Revolutionary War was not won by the US so much as the US allowed the British to lose. That's how Rex runs his defense. It's the kind of defense that allows far lesser talents to seemingly elevate their game, which is what made him a great hire for the Jets. Their only elite talent on defense was at corner, and Rex's system took care of the rest.

The problem with the Bills hiring Rex was that his system also neutralizes the dominant talents on the team outside of CB. It thrives on players who are heady, jack-of-all-trades type players like David Harris and Jim Leonhard. Guys like Lorenzo Alexander can be productive where they weren't able to be on other teams.

 

Everyone complained about how sack production declined drastically in 2015. But we all should have seen this coming. Did you know that Rex only had a 10 sack player in ONE season in his tenure at NY. It was actually two players - Mo Wilkerson with 10.5 and Calvin Pace with 10. Furthermore, his defenses only finished top 10 in sacks once, 2014, where his sacker leader, Sheldon Richardson was tied for 26th in the NFL with 8 sacks. In fact, none of Rex's defense featured a player who finished top 10 in the league in this category. This is not a problem in and of itself, but it does tell us not to expect sacks from a Rex Ryan defense, especially not from any one individual. The problem here is not that we aren't generating sacks, it's that we have paid premiums on guys that generate sacks. The Cold Front was legit - the potential to be an all-time great line - and then we blew it up. The only guy who is performing as expected is Kyle, who is the cheapest and has always been the heady, selfless player that would thrive in a Rex Ryan system. Hughes and Dareus are playing fine, but they are not playing dominant, because they are not being allowed to use their skills to yield the best results. These are not guys that a Rex Ryan defense pays for. And yet, both were paid after the hiring of Rex Ryan. Was this a disconnect between the FO and the coach? Did Rex really want to re-write his scheme to fit in shades of Schwartz like he alluded to? It just doesn't make sense.

 

Nevertheless, Rex built his team with the same philosophy as his Jets. The offense was going to ground and pound, and he finally had a QB who wouldn't turn the ball over in Tyrod Taylor. Not only that, he was a QB with elite mobility. No surprise he hired Greg Roman - the guy who was able to turn around Alex Smith's career and turn Colin Kaepernick into a superstar. But we are already seeing issues with TT's play, and it seems very similar to Kap's issues in SF. He was being asked to run the offense like Alex Smith was: safe throws, run if you can, take sacks over interceptions, etc. But with Kap and TT there was a more stretched field on account of their bigger arms and running ability. I can't tell you how mant Niners games I've watched that were just as puzzling as our Bills have been over the last two years. Kap gave you that same big-play ability that Tyrod has, but also held onto the ball too long, couldn't read the field and ultimately failed to move the offense consistently. And the problems with slow playcalling was also a constant courtesy of G-Ro.The biggest difference is that the Niners under Harbaugh were always able to lean on their defense. And somehow on primetime Kap beat Brady in a shootout. I think now we see that was an outlier. But I Digress. The hiring of Roman made sense, and his schemes work for that team that Rex is trying to run. We've seen how our offense can play with a lead. It just never happens. We can see the firing of G-Ro shines some light on his weaknesses, but several weeks later, does anyone feel like anything has really changed? We still can't run a 2-minute offense, we still aren't moving the ball with any consistency, we have puzzling calls coming in. Can Anthony Lynn do anything about that in the offseason? It would be putting a lot of faith in him, but he may deserve a chance to show us what he's got with a whole offseason as OC.

 

So, with all that being said, where do we go from here? It looks like Rex is staying until the end of the season. Are we going to keep him beyond that? What to do about QB?

Nothing about Rex in his time here has shown me that he can lead a team long-term. If you're looking for a guy to come in and make a team like the Rams competitive despite having minimal star power, you can bring in Rex. Heck, if he hadn't signed on with the Jets in 2009 I bet we would have looked at him in 2010 and he would have been a good hire for the roster we had at the time. If the FO and/or the players have any doubts about him now, they should cut ties. Our defense, in spite of everything that's happened the past two years, still has all the pieces, less one safety, to be a top squad regardless of scheme. With the right DC choice, we are back to a top 5 unit by next year.

 

However, if we retain Rex, I insist we pay Gilmore. The only position that should get paid premium in Rex's defense is corner. They are the only ones who need to be dominant on their own. I have no idea how we'll budget it, but it's what needs to be done. We can't waste a pick on another corner right now. If we don't pick up Tyrod's option, I think we'll have some wiggle room, but unfortunately it leaves us back with a big ???? at the most important position. And around we go.

Sorry this was so long and really doesn't have a conclusion, just felt like rambling a little and maybe start more quality conversation.

[billsfan714]

I like your point about the defensive line and bringing in Rex. it was the exact opposite move that should have been made with the personnel we have. Its the same exact thing with having Marshawn and FJ at his best and we hire a coach who wants a waterbug runningback and we spend a first overall to give him what he wants. Its taking Whitner because Jauron wanted a safety when you had Ngata there for the taking. You spend and extra first to get a supposed stud WR and sign a TE to a big FA contract then have QBs who cant pass. The left hand doesnt know what the right hand is doing with this organization.

[pepsicat17]

Complete rebuild top to bottom. Now is the time and opportunity to do so. We have to hope the Pegulas feel the same. The years of rebuilding, retooling, changing coaches every 2-3 years has to stop. This is not a marketing experiment, this is a damn football team whose number one goal is to wi the super bowl. Who we have now and the way we've been doing it for the last decades is not gonna get it done. Time for new, fresh ideas from proven experienced football people.

[KD in CA]

[3rdand12]

Regardless of what happens with Rex, we find ourselves at yet another crossroads, several actually. I haven't compiled my overall thoughts on this season yet, but a lot has been on my mind and felt like sharing some thoughts about where we came from and where we are going.

 

First, Rex and the defense. He has been a contentious hire since it was announced. Some stating that Schwartz was getting so much out of the squad as it was, so why blow up our best unit in years? Others were optimistic, saying Rex was a better defensive mind and would be able to maintain or even improve the already dominant unit. But the fact of the matter is that the defense was bound to disappoint from the start. Rex Ryan's system just wasn't built for rosters with the talent we had and the areas we invested top dollar in. Schwartz's defense was predicated on having dominant talent up front that could pressure the QB on their own, and the goal was to get sacks. Rex's defense was about confusing the QB, forcing them to make a mistake. It's a philosophy that goes beyond simply the 4-3. 3-4, whatever scheme. Schwartz imposes his will on you (or at least tries), Ryan sort of tricks you and exploits your mistake. As an allegory, Schwartz's defense is the US in WWII, Rex's is the US in the Revolutionary War. You could say that the Revolutionary War was not won by the US so much as the US allowed the British to lose. That's how Rex runs his defense. It's the kind of defense that allows far lesser talents to seemingly elevate their game, which is what made him a great hire for the Jets. Their only elite talent on defense was at corner, and Rex's system took care of the rest.

 

The problem with the Bills hiring Rex was that his system also neutralizes the dominant talents on the team outside of CB. It thrives on players who are heady, jack-of-all-trades type players like David Harris and Jim Leonhard. Guys like Lorenzo Alexander can be productive where they weren't able to be on other teams.

 

Everyone complained about how sack production declined drastically in 2015. But we all should have seen this coming. Did you know that Rex only had a 10 sack player in ONE season in his tenure at NY. It was actually two players - Mo Wilkerson with 10.5 and Calvin Pace with 10. Furthermore, his defenses only finished top 10 in sacks once, 2014, where his sacker leader, Sheldon Richardson was tied for 26th in the NFL with 8 sacks. In fact, none of Rex's defense featured a player who finished top 10 in the league in this category. This is not a problem in and of itself, but it does tell us not to expect sacks from a Rex Ryan defense, especially not from any one individual. The problem here is not that we aren't generating sacks, it's that we have paid premiums on guys that generate sacks. The Cold Front was legit - the potential to be an all-time great line - and then we blew it up. The only guy who is performing as expected is Kyle, who is the cheapest and has always been the heady, selfless player that would thrive in a Rex Ryan system. Hughes and Dareus are playing fine, but they are not playing dominant, because they are not being allowed to use their skills to yield the best results. These are not guys that a Rex Ryan defense pays for. And yet, both were paid after the hiring of Rex Ryan. Was this a disconnect between the FO and the coach? Did Rex really want to re-write his scheme to fit in shades of Schwartz like he alluded to? It just doesn't make sense.

 

Nevertheless, Rex built his team with the same philosophy as his Jets. The offense was going to ground and pound, and he finally had a QB who wouldn't turn the ball over in Tyrod Taylor. Not only that, he was a QB with elite mobility. No surprise he hired Greg Roman - the guy who was able to turn around Alex Smith's career and turn Colin Kaepernick into a superstar. But we are already seeing issues with TT's play, and it seems very similar to Kap's issues in SF. He was being asked to run the offense like Alex Smith was: safe throws, run if you can, take sacks over interceptions, etc. But with Kap and TT there was a more stretched field on account of their bigger arms and running ability. I can't tell you how mant Niners games I've watched that were just as puzzling as our Bills have been over the last two years. Kap gave you that same big-play ability that Tyrod has, but also held onto the ball too long, couldn't read the field and ultimately failed to move the offense consistently. And the problems with slow playcalling was also a constant courtesy of G-Ro.The biggest difference is that the Niners under Harbaugh were always able to lean on their defense. And somehow on primetime Kap beat Brady in a shootout. I think now we see that was an outlier. But I Digress. The hiring of Roman made sense, and his schemes work for that team that Rex is trying to run. We've seen how our offense can play with a lead. It just never happens. We can see the firing of G-Ro shines some light on his weaknesses, but several weeks later, does anyone feel like anything has really changed? We still can't run a 2-minute offense, we still aren't moving the ball with any consistency, we have puzzling calls coming in. Can Anthony Lynn do anything about that in the offseason? It would be putting a lot of faith in him, but he may deserve a chance to show us what he's got with a whole offseason as OC.

 

So, with all that being said, where do we go from here? It looks like Rex is staying until the end of the season. Are we going to keep him beyond that? What to do about QB?

Nothing about Rex in his time here has shown me that he can lead a team long-term. If you're looking for a guy to come in and make a team like the Rams competitive despite having minimal star power, you can bring in Rex. Heck, if he hadn't signed on with the Jets in 2009 I bet we would have looked at him in 2010 and he would have been a good hire for the roster we had at the time. If the FO and/or the players have any doubts about him now, they should cut ties. Our defense, in spite of everything that's happened the past two years, still has all the pieces, less one safety, to be a top squad regardless of scheme. With the right DC choice, we are back to a top 5 unit by next year.

 

However, if we retain Rex, I insist we pay Gilmore. The only position that should get paid premium in Rex's defense is corner. They are the only ones who need to be dominant on their own. I have no idea how we'll budget it, but it's what needs to be done. We can't waste a pick on another corner right now. If we don't pick up Tyrod's option, I think we'll have some wiggle room, but unfortunately it leaves us back with a big ???? at the most important position. And around we go.

 

Sorry this was so long and really doesn't have a conclusion, just felt like rambling a little and maybe start more quality conversation.

Have i mentioned how much i respect your postings? Because i should.

Thanks for being such a solid contributor to thoughtful dialogue.

Even better is that i need to digest this before i respond ! Heaven forbid i have to stop and think on occasion lolz

Cheers Big C !

- E

I like your point about the defensive line and bringing in Rex. it was the exact opposite move that should have been made with the personnel we have. Its the same exact thing with having Marshawn and FJ at his best and we hire a coach who wants a waterbug runningback and we spend a first overall to give him what he wants. Its taking Whitner because Jauron wanted a safety when you had Ngata there for the taking. You spend and extra first to get a supposed stud WR and sign a TE to a big FA contract then have QBs who cant pass. The left hand doesnt know what the right hand is doing with this organization.

Thats what many of us loathe when change comes. again, as it always does.

Make hay with what you got and then accentuate those players with depth. stop with the redesigning of the teams players.

 

so stay with the strong run game, which we are great at actually. And get back to a D line that is allowed to run. Let the linebackers clean up what squeaks out. Play downhill defense

[Big C]

Have i mentioned how much i respect your postings? Because i should.

Thanks for being such a solid contributor to thoughtful dialogue.

Even better is that i need to digest this before i respond ! Heaven forbid i have to stop and think on occasion lolz

Cheers Big C !

- E

 

Thats what many of us loathe when change comes. again, as it always does.

Make hay with what you got and then accentuate those players with depth. stop with the redesigning of the teams players.

 

so stay with the strong run game, which we are great at actually. And get back to a D line that is allowed to run. Let the linebackers clean up what squeaks out. Play downhill defense

Thanks man. I know it's a lot of text to process. I appreciate your appreciation though!

[The Frankish Reich]

Some good insights, Big C, particularly about Rex's pass rush with the Jets and the Kaep offense in SF.

 

I agree with you on dominating CBs being absolutely essential to Rex's defensive scheme. But I'm afraid Gilmore just isn't in that category. In fact, I'm inclined to agree with those that say the rules/officiating and the increasing size/athleticism of WRs has brought the era of the shutdown corner to a close. I watch the Broncos every week in addition to the Bills, and the Broncs have the best tandem at CB out there now. And while they're really good, they can't really take a good receiver out of the gameplan the way a Revis in his prime could. I think Rex needs to move beyond that model that worked so well with great corners c. 2009.

[Big C]

Some good insights, Big C, particularly about Rex's pass rush with the Jets and the Kaep offense in SF.

 

I agree with you on dominating CBs being absolutely essential to Rex's defensive scheme. But I'm afraid Gilmore just isn't in that category. In fact, I'm inclined to agree with those that say the rules/officiating and the increasing size/athleticism of WRs has brought the era of the shutdown corner to a close. I watch the Broncos every week in addition to the Bills, and the Broncs have the best tandem at CB out there now. And while they're really good, they can't really take a good receiver out of the gameplan the way a Revis in his prime could. I think Rex needs to move beyond that model that worked so well with great corners c. 2009.

 

This may be truth. No one corner can shut down an entire side/player. Maybe there is some truth to the "antiquated" tag? Either way, I still think a Gilmore is more vauable to Rex's D than most other players on the roster at this time. And he is a known talent as opposed to a green draft pick.

[Reed83HOF]

We have never bottomed out. We had a chance and we were 0-8 and then we foolishly won 4 of our last 8 and that cost us Cam. Dareus is a great player, but it rests on the QB. You can have great coaches and no QB and not really go anywhere, can also have a great QB with lousy coaches and still not reach your potential. The team is aging, we spend lots of money and get no where other than 7-9, 8-8 or 9-7. We are stuck in the middle with the draft picks and honestly a front office that is unable to properly scout a QB. You need to find the right coach, get the right scouts/GM and find the damn QB. By finding the damn QB it isn't reaching for EJ or hoping that a 3rd or 4th rounder pans out; it is know the draft classes and make the move when the right player you believe in is there.

 

I really don't want a rebuild, but it really feels like that is what we have to do and truly bottom out; otherwise we are just spinning the wheels as always. We have some good parts, but this is far from a superbowl team; is it really good enough to build a team to reach the playoffs? Then what get tossed out in the first round? Bad idea and terrible vision, it is a vision for losers. In the past 5 years we are in the top 5 in spending on salaries - what do we have to show for it? Is that a properly built team? Or is it a team that hands out bad contracts and does not have the capability to find the right players? Clear cap space the next year, eat the dead space on the bad contracts, bottom out and get capable people to find the damn QB and rebuild the team. The Raiders did a great job with that and the Browns are positioning themselves to do just that. I would gladly trade a horrible season or 2 and have a chance than what we have had the last 17 years...

 

If Rex goes, Pegs has to clean house. You cannot sign Rex to a 5 year contract and cut bait after 2 and still keep what is viewed by many as the dysfunctional Bills front office. They should have hit the reset button once Marrone opted out; now is a prime opportunity to do just that and rebuild this team the right way. I fear if we don't we will be spinning the wheels in another year or 2 when Whaley is finally cast aside and we bring in a new GM who might not want the coach we hire now. We will still have no answer at QB and it will be rinse and repeat.

[Keukasmallies]

Well, the Bills have proved that the road less travelled doesn't work.

[Dorkington]

I'm not sure replacing anyone matters.

 

- Replaced owner. Same results.

- Replaced GM. Same results.

- Replaced Coaching Staff. Same results.

- Replaced QB. Same results.

- Replaced every player. Same results.

 

We've replaced everyone in the past 17 years, and we still have the same damned results. So frankly, I don't think any change is going to matter, and I just need to work on not caring anymore.

[jr1]

[NorthBuffaloKid]

[starrymessenger]

 

The crossroads deal is supposed to be greatness in this life in exchange for eternal damnation.

Looks to me like we traded eternal damnation for mediocrity.

Typical FO move.

[Livinginthepast]

I'm not sure replacing anyone matters.

 

- Replaced owner. Same results.

- Replaced GM. Same results.

- Replaced Coaching Staff. Same results.

- Replaced QB. Same results.

- Replaced every player. Same results.

 

We've replaced everyone in the past 17 years, and we still have the same damned results. So frankly, I don't think any change is going to matter, and I just need to work on not caring anymore.

Sadly you are correct but you missed one key part of the replacement scenario. That is that in almost all of the cases they have replaced the people in question (players, coaches, management) with people who were either mediocre or WORSE. I seriously cannot think of anyone who we really upgraded on in the past 17 years. Maybe Lesean? All the players QBs, RBS and WRs, DLs, DBs etc all pale in comparison to the SB teams. The coaches have been garbage compared to even Wade let alone Marv. The GMS have been inept at every turn. Donahoe was an absolute disaster here. The problem isn't just turnover. The problem is turnover in favor of people who are worse than who they are replacing!!

Edited December 13, 2016 by Livinginthepast

[Reed83HOF]

Sadly you are correct but you missed one key part of the replacement scenario. That is that in almost all of the cases they have replaced the people in question (players, coaches, management) with people who were either mediocre or WORSE. I seriously cannot think of anyone who we really upgraded on in the past 17 years. Maybe Lesean? All the players QBs, RBS and WRs, DLs, DBs etc all pale in comparison to the SB teams. The coaches have been garbage compared to even Wade let alone Marv. The GMS have been inept at every turn. Donahoe was an absolute disaster here. The problem isn't just turnover. The problem is turnover in favor of people who are worse than who they are replacing!!

 

Which tells you a lot about this franchise's inability to identify talent and why it is even more maddening that a lot of the decision makers may be left and in position to hire again. Yes the owner changed, but the rest of the band is still together; it is hard to have any faith in their ability to get it right this time...

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

We have never bottomed out. We had a chance and we were 0-8 and then we foolishly won 4 of our last 8 and that cost us Cam. Dareus is a great player, but it rests on the QB. You can have great coaches and no QB and not really go anywhere, can also have a great QB with lousy coaches and still not reach your potential. The team is aging, we spend lots of money and get no where other than 7-9, 8-8 or 9-7. We are stuck in the middle with the draft picks and honestly a front office that is unable to properly scout a QB. You need to find the right coach, get the right scouts/GM and find the damn QB. By finding the damn QB it isn't reaching for EJ or hoping that a 3rd or 4th rounder pans out; it is know the draft classes and make the move when the right player you believe in is there.

 

I really don't want a rebuild, but it really feels like that is what we have to do and truly bottom out; otherwise we are just spinning the wheels as always. We have some good parts, but this is far from a superbowl team; is it really good enough to build a team to reach the playoffs? Then what get tossed out in the first round? Bad idea and terrible vision, it is a vision for losers. In the past 5 years we are in the top 5 in spending on salaries - what do we have to show for it? Is that a properly built team? Or is it a team that hands out bad contracts and does not have the capability to find the right players? Clear cap space the next year, eat the dead space on the bad contracts, bottom out and get capable people to find the damn QB and rebuild the team. The Raiders did a great job with that and the Browns are positioning themselves to do just that. I would gladly trade a horrible season or 2 and have a chance than what we have had the last 17 years...

 

If Rex goes, Pegs has to clean house. You cannot sign Rex to a 5 year contract and cut bait after 2 and still keep what is viewed by many as the dysfunctional Bills front office. They should have hit the reset button once Marrone opted out; now is a prime opportunity to do just that and rebuild this team the right way. I fear if we don't we will be spinning the wheels in another year or 2 when Whaley is finally cast aside and we bring in a new GM who might not want the coach we hire now. We will still have no answer at QB and it will be rinse and repeat.

 

 

This is SO correct, it's what I've been saying throughout the drought.

 

Winning games like the next three is THE reason we've been so bad for so long. It's allowed lackluster coaches, players and managers to linger longer than they should have, it's kept us from drafting superior talent, it's prevented us from winning in the long term.

 

LOSE OUT, then nuke the entire organization and do a complete and correct rebuild WITHOUT the input of non-football people. It's the only way we have ANY chance of seeing a super bowl before we're all collectively dead.

[KD in CA]

I'm not sure replacing anyone matters.

 

- Replaced owner. Same results.

- Replaced GM. Same results.

- Replaced Coaching Staff. Same results.

- Replaced QB. Same results.

- Replaced every player. Same results.

 

We've replaced everyone in the past 17 years, and we still have the same damned results. So frankly, I don't think any change is going to matter, and I just need to work on not caring anymore.

 

How about hiring a monkey to fling poo at Mel Kiper's draft board to determine picks? It couldn't possibly result in worse drafting than they've had for the past 15 years.

 

Seriously, can someone tell me the last time the Bills made a great draft pick? A transformational draft day decision on a selection or a trade? A player they saw greatness in that no one else did? Anything like that?

 

Remember that old video of the ESPN guys mocking the Jets on draft day? Well folks, the Bills have surpassed that standard by miles.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

 

Seriously, can someone tell me the last time the Bills made a great draft pick? A transformational draft day decision on a selection or a trade? A player they saw greatness in that no one else did? Anything like that?

 

That's what happens when you win meaningless games.

[Dorkington]

Sadly you are correct but you missed one key part of the replacement scenario. That is that in almost all of the cases they have replaced the people in question (players, coaches, management) with people who were either mediocre or WORSE. I seriously cannot think of anyone who we really upgraded on in the past 17 years. Maybe Lesean? All the players QBs, RBS and WRs, DLs, DBs etc all pale in comparison to the SB teams. The coaches have been garbage compared to even Wade let alone Marv. The GMS have been inept at every turn. Donahoe was an absolute disaster here. The problem isn't just turnover. The problem is turnover in favor of people who are worse than who they are replacing!!

I'd say McCoy, Watkins, Kyle and Dareus are about the only talents on this team that would make the early 90s teams. Pretty sad, when you think about it.

[Reed83HOF]

I'd say McCoy, Watkins, Kyle and Dareus are about the only talents on this team that would make the early 90s teams. Pretty sad, when you think about it.

 

Kyle, Dareus, Bruce and Hanson; Reed, Watkins, Lofton; Thurman, Kenny and McCoy with Jimbo

[Dragonborn10]

We have never bottomed out. We had a chance and we were 0-8 and then we foolishly won 4 of our last 8 and that cost us Cam. Dareus is a great player, but it rests on the QB. You can have great coaches and no QB and not really go anywhere, can also have a great QB with lousy coaches and still not reach your potential. The team is aging, we spend lots of money and get no where other than 7-9, 8-8 or 9-7. We are stuck in the middle with the draft picks and honestly a front office that is unable to properly scout a QB. You need to find the right coach, get the right scouts/GM and find the damn QB. By finding the damn QB it isn't reaching for EJ or hoping that a 3rd or 4th rounder pans out; it is know the draft classes and make the move when the right player you believe in is there.

 

I really don't want a rebuild, but it really feels like that is what we have to do and truly bottom out; otherwise we are just spinning the wheels as always. We have some good parts, but this is far from a superbowl team; is it really good enough to build a team to reach the playoffs? Then what get tossed out in the first round? Bad idea and terrible vision, it is a vision for losers. In the past 5 years we are in the top 5 in spending on salaries - what do we have to show for it? Is that a properly built team? Or is it a team that hands out bad contracts and does not have the capability to find the right players? Clear cap space the next year, eat the dead space on the bad contracts, bottom out and get capable people to find the damn QB and rebuild the team. The Raiders did a great job with that and the Browns are positioning themselves to do just that. I would gladly trade a horrible season or 2 and have a chance than what we have had the last 17 years...

 

If Rex goes, Pegs has to clean house. You cannot sign Rex to a 5 year contract and cut bait after 2 and still keep what is viewed by many as the dysfunctional Bills front office. They should have hit the reset button once Marrone opted out; now is a prime opportunity to do just that and rebuild this team the right way. I fear if we don't we will be spinning the wheels in another year or 2 when Whaley is finally cast aside and we bring in a new GM who might not want the coach we hire now. We will still have no answer at QB and it will be rinse and repeat.

Sure you can if it was Pegula that made the hire. If it wasn't Whaley's choice why should he go? Whaley has added talent. Not perfect but not terrible. He should get the chance to pick a HC.

[RevWarRifleman]

Big C, very well put and a good read. I remember discussing on the board several years ago how there's a repeated disconnect

 

between the front office with their new hire of coaches every 2-3 yrs balanced against the style of players that's been assembled

 

by the previous staff. Moreover, with the style of offense and defense getting re-vamped to the new coaches schemes, the team is

 

always in transition, rebuilding if you will. Or, Rev War players vs WWII players as you put it. Not only that, but a front office

 

that just cannot land a franchise qb, and you have 17 years of very average football with instability built in.

 

And so we go into 2017. Thanks again for the great read.

[Manther]

I'm not sure replacing anyone matters.

 

- Replaced owner. Same results.

- Replaced GM. Same results.

- Replaced Coaching Staff. Same results.

- Replaced QB. Same results.

- Replaced every player. Same results.

 

We've replaced everyone in the past 17 years, and we still have the same damned results. So frankly, I don't think any change is going to matter, and I just need to work on not caring anymore.

Haven't replaced Russ Brandon or Jim Overdorf.

 

Just saying. I think JO is fine and follows direction well.

 

Russ sucks! Rex sucks! Said coaching staff sucks!

Edited December 14, 2016 by Manther

[dave mcbride]

Regardless of what happens with Rex, we find ourselves at yet another crossroads, several actually. I haven't compiled my overall thoughts on this season yet, but a lot has been on my mind and felt like sharing some thoughts about where we came from and where we are going.

 

First, Rex and the defense. He has been a contentious hire since it was announced. Some stating that Schwartz was getting so much out of the squad as it was, so why blow up our best unit in years? Others were optimistic, saying Rex was a better defensive mind and would be able to maintain or even improve the already dominant unit. But the fact of the matter is that the defense was bound to disappoint from the start. Rex Ryan's system just wasn't built for rosters with the talent we had and the areas we invested top dollar in. Schwartz's defense was predicated on having dominant talent up front that could pressure the QB on their own, and the goal was to get sacks. Rex's defense was about confusing the QB, forcing them to make a mistake. It's a philosophy that goes beyond simply the 4-3. 3-4, whatever scheme. Schwartz imposes his will on you (or at least tries), Ryan sort of tricks you and exploits your mistake. As an allegory, Schwartz's defense is the US in WWII, Rex's is the US in the Revolutionary War. You could say that the Revolutionary War was not won by the US so much as the US allowed the British to lose. That's how Rex runs his defense. It's the kind of defense that allows far lesser talents to seemingly elevate their game, which is what made him a great hire for the Jets. Their only elite talent on defense was at corner, and Rex's system took care of the rest.

 

The problem with the Bills hiring Rex was that his system also neutralizes the dominant talents on the team outside of CB. It thrives on players who are heady, jack-of-all-trades type players like David Harris and Jim Leonhard. Guys like Lorenzo Alexander can be productive where they weren't able to be on other teams.

 

Everyone complained about how sack production declined drastically in 2015. But we all should have seen this coming. Did you know that Rex only had a 10 sack player in ONE season in his tenure at NY. It was actually two players - Mo Wilkerson with 10.5 and Calvin Pace with 10. Furthermore, his defenses only finished top 10 in sacks once, 2014, where his sacker leader, Sheldon Richardson was tied for 26th in the NFL with 8 sacks. In fact, none of Rex's defense featured a player who finished top 10 in the league in this category. This is not a problem in and of itself, but it does tell us not to expect sacks from a Rex Ryan defense, especially not from any one individual. The problem here is not that we aren't generating sacks, it's that we have paid premiums on guys that generate sacks. The Cold Front was legit - the potential to be an all-time great line - and then we blew it up. The only guy who is performing as expected is Kyle, who is the cheapest and has always been the heady, selfless player that would thrive in a Rex Ryan system. Hughes and Dareus are playing fine, but they are not playing dominant, because they are not being allowed to use their skills to yield the best results. These are not guys that a Rex Ryan defense pays for. And yet, both were paid after the hiring of Rex Ryan. Was this a disconnect between the FO and the coach? Did Rex really want to re-write his scheme to fit in shades of Schwartz like he alluded to? It just doesn't make sense.

 

Nevertheless, Rex built his team with the same philosophy as his Jets. The offense was going to ground and pound, and he finally had a QB who wouldn't turn the ball over in Tyrod Taylor. Not only that, he was a QB with elite mobility. No surprise he hired Greg Roman - the guy who was able to turn around Alex Smith's career and turn Colin Kaepernick into a superstar. But we are already seeing issues with TT's play, and it seems very similar to Kap's issues in SF. He was being asked to run the offense like Alex Smith was: safe throws, run if you can, take sacks over interceptions, etc. But with Kap and TT there was a more stretched field on account of their bigger arms and running ability. I can't tell you how mant Niners games I've watched that were just as puzzling as our Bills have been over the last two years. Kap gave you that same big-play ability that Tyrod has, but also held onto the ball too long, couldn't read the field and ultimately failed to move the offense consistently. And the problems with slow playcalling was also a constant courtesy of G-Ro.The biggest difference is that the Niners under Harbaugh were always able to lean on their defense. And somehow on primetime Kap beat Brady in a shootout. I think now we see that was an outlier. But I Digress. The hiring of Roman made sense, and his schemes work for that team that Rex is trying to run. We've seen how our offense can play with a lead. It just never happens. We can see the firing of G-Ro shines some light on his weaknesses, but several weeks later, does anyone feel like anything has really changed? We still can't run a 2-minute offense, we still aren't moving the ball with any consistency, we have puzzling calls coming in. Can Anthony Lynn do anything about that in the offseason? It would be putting a lot of faith in him, but he may deserve a chance to show us what he's got with a whole offseason as OC.

 

So, with all that being said, where do we go from here? It looks like Rex is staying until the end of the season. Are we going to keep him beyond that? What to do about QB?

Nothing about Rex in his time here has shown me that he can lead a team long-term. If you're looking for a guy to come in and make a team like the Rams competitive despite having minimal star power, you can bring in Rex. Heck, if he hadn't signed on with the Jets in 2009 I bet we would have looked at him in 2010 and he would have been a good hire for the roster we had at the time. If the FO and/or the players have any doubts about him now, they should cut ties. Our defense, in spite of everything that's happened the past two years, still has all the pieces, less one safety, to be a top squad regardless of scheme. With the right DC choice, we are back to a top 5 unit by next year.

 

However, if we retain Rex, I insist we pay Gilmore. The only position that should get paid premium in Rex's defense is corner. They are the only ones who need to be dominant on their own. I have no idea how we'll budget it, but it's what needs to be done. We can't waste a pick on another corner right now. If we don't pick up Tyrod's option, I think we'll have some wiggle room, but unfortunately it leaves us back with a big ???? at the most important position. And around we go.

 

Sorry this was so long and really doesn't have a conclusion, just felt like rambling a little and maybe start more quality conversation.

Good post. Lots to chew on here.

Some good insights, Big C, particularly about Rex's pass rush with the Jets and the Kaep offense in SF.

 

I agree with you on dominating CBs being absolutely essential to Rex's defensive scheme. But I'm afraid Gilmore just isn't in that category. In fact, I'm inclined to agree with those that say the rules/officiating and the increasing size/athleticism of WRs has brought the era of the shutdown corner to a close. I watch the Broncos every week in addition to the Bills, and the Broncs have the best tandem at CB out there now. And while they're really good, they can't really take a good receiver out of the gameplan the way a Revis in his prime could. I think Rex needs to move beyond that model that worked so well with great corners c. 2009.

I agree about the rules changes, but Gilmore has been a real difference maker lately. Sub in a garden-variety cb for him, and this team is giving up 40 per game consistently.

I'd say McCoy, Watkins, Kyle and Dareus are about the only talents on this team that would make the early 90s teams. Pretty sad, when you think about it.

Gilmore would be the best CB on that team. He's better than Odomes. That team was weak at the CB spot anyway.

Edited December 14, 2016 by dave mcbride

[MarkyMannn]

I'm not sure replacing anyone matters.

 

- Replaced owner. Same results.

- Replaced GM. Same results.

- Replaced Coaching Staff. Same results.

- Replaced QB. Same results.

- Replaced every player. Same results.

 

We've replaced everyone in the past 17 years, and we still have the same damned results. So frankly, I don't think any change is going to matter, and I just need to work on not caring anymore.

I hear ya.

 

You know Miami and the Jets are no different. As long as we are up against Brady and BB we're screwed