Derrick Carr

[GunnerBill]

I think this thread reinforces the fact that Brandon pushed hard for a shot at a Franchise QB in his last draft. Whaley bears much responsibility because he was heavily involved in that draft - reaching for EJ in the first. Russ also has to take some responsibility as I'm sure he was excited about selling tickets with a new QB on the roster. All in all, the move demonstrates the fallout from reaching for 2nd round talent in the 1st. It ties your hands for several drafts. IF the Bills had grabbed EJ in the 2nd, I doubt anyone would ring their hands about the failed attempt. First rounds are just too valuable.

 

On the other hand, spending multiple 2nd and 3rd day picks on QB does not hurt you as much. If you swing and miss on a 3rd rounder, he can still stick around as a cheap backup for a few years. You also don't mind grabbing another guy in the next draft because less value has been written off. You don't have ownership, fans, and front office doubling down on a faulty faith in a broken prospect (see EJ among a litany of other 1st round busts).

 

Brandon? You mean Buddy?

[Jobot]

Somewhat unfair to evaluate Whaley against what like 6 gms before him failed to do. The drafting strategy needs to include more qbs, specifically the ones you really like. But you can't use one of your top 2 picks on a qb every year.

 

Fact is we never should've drafted ej. We should've traded back, and for picks in 2014. Either we very poorly evaluated him, or Brandon needed something to sell to the fan base. I trend towards the latter

 

If I recall the Bills were somewhat handcuffed into drafting a qb at the time. Consider what you will the type of pressure the Bills GM and coaches have previously been under, I'd say many draft choices over the years were the result of these guys fearing for their jobs to some extent. We've had pretty high rate of coaching turnover.

[C.Biscuit97]

The debate about Carr has been going on on this board since he was a rookie. C. Biscuit was a big critic, and I challenged him because in the second half of his rookie season, Carr looked like he was putting it together to me. This really was a hot topic after the Raiders beat the Bills in late 2014. I remain convinced that Carr was by all measures a first round talent whose drop can be attributed pretty much SOLELY to the fact that his brother was a bust and went to the same school as him. I firmly believe that this shaped opinion prior to the draft. It's similar to Brady: for decades people thought that U of M qbs were destined to be NFL busts -- until they weren't. Brady was objectively excellent in college yet dropped for whatever reason. Drew Henson was a reason, but prejudice against michigan qbs likely played a role too. A lot of these guys who are running drafts fall prey to the same silly prejudices as message board folks like us do.

Thanks for calling me out. Thought that was against TOS but oh well.

 

And my message has always been consistent. I never want to give up on a young qb too early, unless it was Manziel who I never liked (and I believe you were a big fan of). Manuel and Carr had very similar numbers their rookie years. They had very similar numbers after 4 games into their second year. But the Raiders stuck with their young qb and the Bills benched theirs.

 

Carr is playing great right now. EJ proably won't be at his level but the fact remains that teams like the Raiders and Jags had a much better plan to develop a young qb than the Bills.

[dave mcbride]

Thanks for calling me out. Thought that was against TOS but oh well.

 

And my message has always been consistent. I never want to give up on a young qb too early, unless it was Manziel who I never liked (and I believe you were a big fan of). Manuel and Carr had very similar numbers their rookie years. They had very similar numbers after 4 games into their second year. But the Raiders stuck with their young qb and the Bills benched theirs.

 

Carr is playing great right now. EJ proably won't be at his level but the fact remains that teams like the Raiders and Jags had a much better plan to develop a young qb than the Bills.

I'm not calling you out, man. I thought Trent Edwards looked like the answer back in the day. I'm just pointing out that this board is not a johnny-come-lately to the Carr case and that we had a spirited debate about him two years ago. Don't overinterpret.

 

PS - I wasn't opposed to Manziel (I didn't know enough other than that he was good in college), but I wasn't a booster. I never thought the Bills were going to get him anyway. Besides, I was fully on board with going after Watkins.

Edited November 1, 2016 by dave mcbride

[GunnerBill]

Thanks for calling me out. Thought that was against TOS but oh well.

 

And my message has always been consistent. I never want to give up on a young qb too early, unless it was Manziel who I never liked (and I believe you were a big fan of). Manuel and Carr had very similar numbers their rookie years. They had very similar numbers after 4 games into their second year. But the Raiders stuck with their young qb and the Bills benched theirs.

 

Carr is playing great right now. EJ proably won't be at his level but the fact remains that teams like the Raiders and Jags had a much better plan to develop a young qb than the Bills.

 

I was also someone saying after EJ's second year and Carr's first I thought their level of play had been similar. Could the Bills have stuck with EJ longer? Possibly, but I do think there was a point early in his career where he started to flat line and where Carr began to ascend.

 

As for Manziel - he was never going to be good. Not ever.

[Gordio]

The debate about Carr has been going on on this board since he was a rookie. C. Biscuit was a big critic, and I challenged him because in the second half of his rookie season, Carr looked like he was putting it together to me. This really was a hot topic after the Raiders beat the Bills in late 2014. I remain convinced that Carr was by all measures a first round talent whose drop can be attributed pretty much SOLELY to the fact that his brother was a bust and went to the same school as him. I firmly believe that this shaped opinion prior to the draft. It's similar to Brady: for decades people thought that U of M qbs were destined to be NFL busts -- until they weren't. Brady was objectively excellent in college yet dropped for whatever reason. Drew Henson was a reason, but prejudice against michigan qbs likely played a role too. A lot of these guys who are running drafts fall prey to the same silly prejudices as message board folks like us do.

Biscuits feelings are still hurt from the thought of EJ being out of the league in 2 years.

_{& BTW, if you watched EJ in college at FSU you had a pretty good idea how his career was going to turn out. Ask some of the FSU guys on this board & they will tell you the same dam thing. Jimbo had to dumb down the offense for a Senior QB & then a year later opened it up with Winston under center. It was pretty obvious his own coach didn't trust him.}

[C.Biscuit97]

Sick burn!

[Cripple Creek]

You didn't answer my question. Every team passed on him for 3+ rounds until Jerruh took a flyer. You can't say it was obvious how good he'd be because why did the Rams draft Goff?

I did answer your question. The Bills under valued him. All that matters is that they placed a lower value on him than the cowboys did. Numerous examples of this year after year.

[QuoteTheRaven83]

We also missed out on Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Drew Brees. Whats the point?

[BobbyC81]

 

After that first year of EJ, I and many others were still saying to draft a QB in the Watkins draft. The funny thing is, what more would we have had to give up with that Kuandjo pick to get ahead of the Raiders in that 2nd round? Probably a 3rd. But guess what, awww no, we had to go and ruin that with a little thing called worrying about EJ's feelings. If he or anyone is sensitive enough to let the drafting of another QB in a high round a year after they were taken in the first bother them, then they will never succeed at the QB position in the NFL.

 

.

IIRC, we saw the same approach with different coaches and GMs with Losman and Edwards. This is a big boys' game. If a QB can't handle having competition for his job, he's too mentally weak to be a QB in the NFL!

[YoloinOhio]

MMQB: Derek Carr isn't as good as you think

The Raiders are 6-2 and their quarterback has thrown 17 touchdowns and just three interceptions. Some people are even throwing his name around in MVP conversations. But the film tells a different story

http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2016/11/02/nfl-derek-carr-oakland-raiders

[Tenhigh]

Draft the best available one with your first round pick every year and the problem will get resolved.

 

Then go bpa at valued positions from there on out and fill in the "holes" on the roster with cheap free agents.

 

You won't miss those first round picks if you are getting top QB play and getting value in the rest of your drafts........with good QB play the Bills could have kept winning this year without Dareus, Watkins, Gilmore etc.........

 

First round QB's are under team control for 5 years and there is something about competition that brings out the best in players.

I went back to all of the Bills' drafts since Whaley entered the organization to see what that would look like if we drafted the next selected QB in the first round instead of our actual first rounder. The results show that this would have left us with a shell of a team.

Year Next QB Drafted at Bills Position Player Actually Drafted

2016 Paxton Lynch Shaq Lawson

2015 Garret Grayson One of 7 first rounders given up for Sammy

2014 Johnny Football Sammy Watkins

2013 EJ EJ Manuel

2012 Brandon Weedon Stephon Gilmore

2011 Jake Locker (or Gabbert) Marcel Darius

2010 Tim Tebow CJ Spiller

[GunnerBill]

 

I went back to all of the Bills' drafts since Whaley entered the organization to see what that would look like if we drafted the next selected QB in the first round instead of our actual first rounder. The results show that this would have left us with a shell of a team.

Year Next QB Drafted at Bills Position Player Actually Drafted

2016 Paxton Lynch Shaq Lawson

2015 Garret Grayson One of 7 first rounders given up for Sammy

2014 Johnny Football Sammy Watkins

2013 EJ EJ Manuel

2012 Brandon Weedon Stephon Gilmore

2011 Jake Locker (or Gabbert) Marcel Darius

2010 Tim Tebow CJ Spiller

 

 

Which proves what I have said. It isn't and will never be just a numbers game. It comes down to talent evaluation first and foremost.

[8-8 Forever?]

 

Can we stop this crazy hindsight narrative stuff plaguing the board all the time about who we could have drafted? If anyone thought Carr was going to be this good do you think he would have been available in the 2nd round still? nope...so 32 teams made the same mistake. How about Dalton? Anyone think he lasts to the 2nd round if they knew? Nope. What about Brady? Does he last to the 6th round? Nope. How about Kurt Warner...think he still goes undrafted if they could do it over again? Nope. How about Wilson? Any chance he lasts to the third round again? Nope.

 

So enough with the would have, should have stuff already. On draft night, he wasn't a sure thing by any means and had plenty of question marks. We also had a terrible OL that needed help. You go on what you KNOW about a player, not what you don't know and only the future does because we don't have Oracles or Time Machines.

+1. leave the past in the past. this roster is as good as its been in a very long time. injuries have taken a toll the last couple games, that's all. it happens to many teams. the issue is whether our talented players can get back on the field. Losing AW is huge as communication on the back end is now breaking down again, not having Sammy is huge as you get 8 in the box. Losing Shady is devastating as the big play is gone. These are 3 of your top 6 or 7 players. Can't lose those guys if you want to win more than 8 games. We lost 'em (again), so make it 17 seasons. unless they pull one out in seattle , Shady miraculously heals to 100% (probably now, once you get a hammy, it doesn't heal for months) and Sammy comes back miraculously at 100% (probably not).

Edited November 2, 2016 by 8and8-->NoMore

[Cripple Creek]

MMQB: Derek Carr isn't as good as you think

http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2016/11/02/nfl-derek-carr-oakland-raiders

He's good enough to overcome 23 accepted penalties, but, keep running him down.

 

Which proves what I have said. It isn't and will never be just a numbers game. It comes down to talent evaluation first and foremost.

It does, and the Bills have failed miserably in addressing the most important position on the field.

[Blokestradamus]

MMQB: Derek Carr isn't as good as you think

http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2016/11/02/nfl-derek-carr-oakland-raiders

 

It's nice to see that Andy Benoit has some similar philosophies as I do. I've mentioned it with Jordan Mills before; bad process will eventually lead to bad results.

 

I'm not sold on Carr as a franchise QB but I know a few Raider fans who are absolutely certain he is. He's certainly been a better pro than I anticipated after watching him at Fresno.

 

[YoloinOhio]

He's good enough to overcome 23 accepted penalties, but, keep running him down.

 

It does, and the Bills have failed miserably in addressing the most important position on the field.

it was an article from MMQB. I didn't write it, Andy Benoit did. What do you mean "keep running him down"? I don't think I've ever posted any personal opinions about this player. I have watched maybe 2 Raiders games in 2 years. Just thought it was relevant to the thread as Benoit is very good at film breakdown. Edited November 2, 2016 by YoloinOhio

[dave mcbride]

MMQB: Derek Carr isn't as good as you think

http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2016/11/02/nfl-derek-carr-oakland-raiders

Good read -- thanks.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

I think QB has become a position that you can wait until the 2nd round for unless you are completely sold on a guy in the 1st.

Edited November 2, 2016 by TheTruthHurts

[Cripple Creek]

it was an article from MMQB. I didn't write it, Andy Benoit did. What do you mean "keep running him down"? I don't think I've ever posted anything about this player. I have watched maybe 2 Raiders games in 2 years. Just thought it was relevant to the thread as Benoit is very good at film breakdown.

More coffee needed, I didn't see the "MMQB" before the unquoted portion of your post.